Research >> Economics
Chicago Fed Midwest Manufacturing Index Points to little change in growth through May
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The Midwest Economy Index (MEI), which approximates quarterly growth at a monthly frequency, moved up to +0.69 in May from +0.63 in April. Contributions to the May MEI from three of the four broad sectors of nonfarm business activity and two of the five Seventh Federal Reserve District states increased from April. The relative MEI increased to +0.79 in May from +0.47 in April. Contributions to the May relative MEI from two of the four sectors and four of the five states increased from April.
The manufacturing sector’s contribution to the MEI moved up to +0.44 in May from +0.39 in April. The pace of manufacturing activity increased in Illinois and Wisconsin, but decreased in Iowa and was unchanged in Indiana and Michigan. Manufacturing’s contribution to the relative MEI increased to +0.80 in May from +0.60 in April.
The construction and mining sector contributed +0.04 to the MEI in May, up slightly from –0.02 in April. The pace of construction and mining activity was faster in Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, and Wisconsin, but unchanged in Michigan. Construction and mining’s contribution to the relative MEI increased to a neutral value in May from –0.14 in April.
MEIThe service sector’s contribution to the MEI moved down to +0.10 in May from +0.17 in April. The pace of service sector activity was down in Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, and Wisconsin, but unchanged in Iowa. The service sector’s contribution to the relative MEI ticked down to –0.13 in May from –0.12 in April.
The contribution from consumer spending indicators to the MEI edged up to +0.11 in May from +0.09 in April. Consumer spending indicators were, on balance, up in Illinois, but down in Indiana, Michigan, and Wisconsin and steady in Iowa. Consumer spending’s contribution to the relative MEI edged down to +0.12 in May from +0.14 in April.
The MEI will be discontinued following this June 30, 2021, release. For further details, go to chicagofed.org/mei.
Posted: June 30, 2021 Wednesday 08:30 AM