Research >> Economics
DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer Decreased 0.5%
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For the week ending December 31, 2011, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer fell by -0.5 percent on top of a drop by +0.1 percent in the prior week. Inflation-adjusted chain store sales continued to rise for the third week, after a sharp increase of +3.3 percent in the week ending December 17th, while MBA’s mortgage applications plunged by -9.6 percent in the latest week. Overall, the contribution by the consumption sector was neutral, neither adding nor reducing the barometer index. On the production side, truck and steel production declined, dragging down the barometer index by -0.4 percentage points combined. The production sector’s volatility over the past two weeks, however, is reflective of the typical distortion relating to auto factory shutdowns surrounding the New Year’s floating holiday. The barometer grew by +2.2 percent in 2011, which compares to +3.4% in 2010 following the three years of decline (2009:-8.0%, 2008: -1.4%, 2007: -0.6%).
On a year-over-year basis, the growth of the barometer further slowed to +0.7 percent, which compares to an average -3.3 percent decline over the Great Recession (determined to have ended in June 2009 according to the NBER). After flatlining in 2006, and declining from 2007 through 2009, the barometer bounced back in 2010 to rise by +3.4 percent, which was the strongest increase since 1994 (+4.0%), but not so impressive when you compare it to an -8.0 percent drop in 2009.
The smoothed version of the barometer, which attempts to account for weekly volatility, increased by +0.1 percent in the week ending December 31st, while its year-over-year growth rate grew by +1.5 percent.
Posted: January 12, 2012 Thursday 10:00 AM