Research >> Economics
Employment Trends Index declined slightly in November to 110.41
The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) declined slightly in November, following an increase in October. The index now stands at 110.41, down from 110.73 in October. The change versus a year ago, however, remains positive with a 4.4 percent gain in the ETI.
“The Employment Trends Index declined slightly this month and shows some moderation after reaching its highest point so far in August,” said Gad Levanon, Chief Economist, North America, at The Conference Board. “The gloom and doom views infecting the financial markets are an exaggeration. However, slower economic activity, tighter labor markets and higher labor costs are likely to lead to weaker job growth in 2019. Jobs should continue to grow, causing faster wage growth which may in turn increase inflation pressure, and ultimately result in a moderation in employment growth by the end of 2019. As a result, we expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates this month and possibly three more times in 2019.”
November’s decrease in the ETI was fueled by negative contributions from three of the eight components. From the largest negative contributor to the smallest, these were: the Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers, Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance, and the Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now.
The Employment Trends Index aggregates eight labor-market indicators, each of which has proven accurate in its own area. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.
Posted: December 10, 2018 Monday 10:00 AM