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2Q2016 GDP advance estimate increased 1.2%
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Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 1.2 percent in the second quarter of 2016 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 0.8 percent (revised).
The Bureau emphasized that the second-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency . The "second" estimate for the second quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on August 26, 2016.
The increase in real GDP in the second quarter reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and exports that were partly offset by negative contributions from private inventory investment, nonresidential fixed investment, residential fixed investment, and state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.
The acceleration in real GDP growth in the second quarter reflected an acceleration in PCE, an upturn in exports, and smaller decreases in nonresidential fixed investment and in federal government spending. These were partly offset by a larger decrease in private inventory investment, and downturns in residential fixed investment and in state and local government spending.
Current-dollar GDP increased 3.5 percent (table 1), or $155.9 billion, in the second quarter to a level of $18,437.6 billion (table 3A). In the first quarter, current dollar GDP increased 1.3 percent (revised), or $58.9 billion.
The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 2.0 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 0.2 percent in the first (revised) (table 4). The PCE price index increased 1.9 percent, compared with an increase of 0.3 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 1.7 percent, compared with an increase of 2.1 percent.
Current-dollar personal income increased $111.4 billion in the second quarter, compared with an increase of $52.8 billion in the first (revised). The acceleration in personal income primarily reflected upturns in wages and salaries, personal dividend income, and farm proprietors’ income that were offset by slowdowns in personal current transfer receipts.
Disposable personal income increased $106.3 billion, or 3.1 percent, in the second quarter, compared with an increase of $83.4 billion, or 2.5 percent, in the first (revised). Real disposable personal income increased 1.2 percent, compared with an increase of 2.2 percent.
Personal saving was $763.1 billion in the second quarter, compared with $847.8 billion in the first (revised). The personal saving rate -- personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income -- was 5.5 percent in the second quarter, compared with 6.1 percent in the first.
For the first quarter of 2016, real GDP is now estimated to have increased 0.8 percent; in the previously published estimates, first-quarter GDP was estimated to have increased 1.1 percent. The 0.3-percentage point downward revision to the percent change in first-quarter real GDP primarily reflected downward revisions to residential fixed investment, to private inventory investment, and to exports that were partly offset by upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment, to PCE, to state and local government spending, to imports, and to federal government spending.
Posted: July 29, 2016 Friday 08:30 AM