Research >> Economics

Philadelphia NonManufacturing Activity Suggest A Continued Modest Pace


The November Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggests that business activity continued to expand at a modest pace. The survey’s firm-level indicator of general activity remained steady, while the indexes for new orders and sales/revenues increased. The employment indexes suggest expansion in employment for both full-time and part-time employees. Overall, expectations for growth over the next six months show optimism.

Current Indicators Signal Growth in Overall Activity
Firms indicated modest growth in current business activity. The diffusion index for general activity at the firm level edged down, from 16.3 in October to 15.6 in November (see Chart 1). Nearly 41 percent of the firms reported an increase in activity at their firm, while 25 percent reported a decrease. The index remains below its historical average of 28.1. However, firms signaled a weakening in their perception of current regional economic activity. The regional activity index fell nearly 11 points, to 10.6, after averaging 19 points over the previous six months. The regional general activity index is now 11 points below its historical average of 22.8.

The sales/revenues index increased 11 points, to 17.2. Thirty-nine percent of the firms indicated an increase in sales/revenues in November, compared with 32 percent last month. Meanwhile, the percentage of firms reporting a decrease in sales/revenues fell from 26 percent to 22 percent. Additionally, new orders experienced gains, rising 7 points to 12.6.

Full-Time and Part-Time Employment Expands
The full-time employment index rose 6 points, to 14.3, slightly above its historical average of 14.1. More than 27 percent of the firms reported an increase in full-time employment, compared with 20 percent in October. The part-time employment index increased 13 points, to 9.4, after two months in negative territory. Only 5 percent of the firms reported a decrease in part-time employment this month, compared with 15 percent in October.

Firms Report Pickup in Prices Received
Price increases for firms’ inputs and own products accelerated modestly from October. More than 21 percent of the firms reported higher prices for inputs in November, the same percentage as in October. The prices paid index rose 2 points, to 16.5, still below its historical average of 20.1. With respect to their own prices, 23 percent of the firms reported higher prices in November, compared with 15 percent in October. The prices received index increased 15 points, to 17.9, beyond its historical average of 12.

Firms’ Own Prices Expected to Be Higher than the Rate of Inflation
In this month’s special questions, firms were asked to forecast the changes in the prices of their own products and services and for U.S. consumers over the next four quarters (see Special Questions). The median forecast was for an increase in their own prices of 2.8 percent, up from a 2.5 percent forecast in the third quarter when the same questions were last asked. When asked about the average rate of inflation for U.S. consumers over the next year, the median response was 2 percent, down from 2.5 percent last quarter. Additionally, firms forecast an increase in compensation per employee of 3 percent over the next year, the same value reported in the third quarter. Firms expect the average rate of inflation for U.S. consumers over the next 10 years to be 3 percent, up from 2.5 percent last quarter.
Forecasts for Future Growth Remain Optimistic

The respondents to this month’s survey remained optimistic about future activity over the next six months. Nearly 54 percent of the firms expect increases in activity at their firms over the next six months, and only 13 percent expect decreases. The diffusion index for future activity at the firm level remained unchanged at 40.4 percent (see Chart 1). Forecasts for growth in the region dampened slightly but remain optimistic overall. The future regional activity index decreased 3 points, to 34.2.

Summary
Results from the Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest continued business expansion in November. Though the indicator for firm-level general activity edged down, indicators for new orders and sales/revenues rose above their positive readings from October. Employment grew among the reporting firms, for both full-time and part-time employees. Firms’ six-month forecasts remained optimistic.






Posted: November 22, 2016 Tuesday 08:30 AM




Tags - Research
ADP EMPLOYMENT
BEIGE BOOK
BUSINESS BAROMETER
BUSINESS INVENTORIES
CASE-SHILLER
CHALLENGER LAYOFFS
CHICAGO FED MIDWEST MFG
CHICAGO FED NATL ACTIVITY
CHICAGO PMI
CONSTRUCTION SPENDING
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
CONSUMER CREDIT
CPI
CURRENT ACCOUNT
DURABLE GOODS
EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX
EMPLOYMENT TRENDS INDEX
EXISTING HOME SALES
FACTORY ORDERS
FOMC STMT
FOMC
GDP
HELP WANTED HWOL
HOUSING STARTS
ICSC CHAIN STORE
IMPORT PRICE INDEX
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
INTERNATIONAL TRADE
ISM MFG
ISM NON-MFG
JOB OPENINGS
JOBLESS CLAIMS
KANSAS CITY FED MFG
LEADING INDEX
MASS LAYOFFS
MICH CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
MORTGAGE APPS
NAHB INDEX
NAPM-NY
NBER
NEW HOME SALES
NEW YORK FED MFG
NFIB OPTIMISM INDEX
NONFARM EMPLOYMENT
PAYCHEX-IHS SMALL JOBS
PENDING HOME SALES
PERSONAL INCOME
PHILA FED FORECASTERS
PHILA FED MFG
PHILA FED NON-MFG
PPI
PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH
REAL HOURLY EARNINGS
RETAIL SALES
RICHMOND FED MFG
TEXAS FED MFG
TREASURY INTL CAPITAL
WHOLESALE INVENTORIES
Archives
Oct 2019
Sep 2019
Aug 2019
Jul 2019
Jun 2019
May 2019
Apr 2019
Mar 2019
Feb 2019
Jan 2019
Dec 2018
Nov 2018
Oct 2018
Sep 2018
Aug 2018
Jul 2018
Jun 2018
May 2018
Apr 2018
Mar 2018
Feb 2018
Jan 2018
Dec 2017
Nov 2017
Oct 2017
Sep 2017
Aug 2017
Jul 2017
Jun 2017
May 2017
Apr 2017
Mar 2017
Feb 2017
Jan 2017
Dec 2016
Nov 2016
Oct 2016
Sep 2016
Aug 2016
Jul 2016
Jun 2016
May 2016
Apr 2016
Mar 2016
Feb 2016
Jan 2016
Dec 2015
Nov 2015
Oct 2015
Sep 2015
Aug 2015
Jul 2015
Jun 2015
May 2015
Apr 2015
Mar 2015
Feb 2015
Jan 2015
Dec 2014
Nov 2014
Oct 2014
Sep 2014
Aug 2014
Jul 2014
Jun 2014
May 2014
Apr 2014
Mar 2014
Feb 2014
Jan 2014
Dec 2013
Nov 2013
Oct 2013
Sep 2013
Aug 2013
Jul 2013
Jun 2013
May 2013
Apr 2013
Mar 2013
Feb 2013
Jan 2013
Dec 2012
Nov 2012
Oct 2012
Sep 2012
Aug 2012
Jul 2012
Jun 2012
May 2012
Apr 2012
Mar 2012
Feb 2012
Jan 2012
Dec 2011
Nov 2011
Oct 2011
Sep 2011
Aug 2011
Jul 2011
Jun 2011
May 2011
Apr 2011
Mar 2011
Feb 2011
Jan 2011
Dec 2010
Nov 2010
Oct 2010
Sep 2010
Aug 2010
Jul 2010
Jun 2010
May 2010
Apr 2010
Mar 2010
Feb 2010
Jan 2010
Dec 2009
Nov 2009
Oct 2009
Sep 2009
Aug 2009
Jul 2009
Jun 2009
May 2009
Apr 2009
Mar 2009
Feb 2009
Jan 2009
Dec 2008
Nov 2008
Oct 2008
Sep 2008
Aug 2008




Buy Economic Books at

The OneWall.com Book Shop

Quick Links
Barron's Online
Bloomberg
CNBC
CNBC TV Live
CNet Investor
Financial Times (UK)
Forbes
Kudlow Podcast
MSNBC TV Live
NBC News
NY Times
The Economist
TheStreet.com
Wall St Journal
Dismal Scientist
Dr. Ed Yardeni
FRED Graph
Lawrence Kudlow
Stone McCarthy
GDPNow
NABE
ABC News
CNNfn
Institutional Investor
MarketWatch
Cash Prices - WSJ.com
Dr. Jeremy Siegel
Market Map
NY RBOB Gas
Shadow Fed - SOMC
BankStocks.com
Dow Jones Indices
Morningstar
SP Indices
Mt Washington Observatory
Weather.com
Yahoo!!




National Association for Business Economics
NABE

Founded in 1920, the National Bureau of Economic Research is a private, nonprofit, nonpartisan research organization dedicated to promoting a greater understanding of how the economy works.

CFA Institute

The Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission was created to examine the causes, domestic and global, of the current financial and economic crisis in the United States.

The Moment of Truth: Report of the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform