Research >> Economics
DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer was flat
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For the week ending January 1, 2011, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer was flat. After the amazing run-up in economic activity toward the end of the year we’ll not complain if the barometer wants to take a little breather…as long as it is short-lived! The timing of factory shut-downs surrounding the New Year’s floating holiday tends to wreak havoc on weekly seasonal adjustment of the production side of the barometer so we may have to wait until mid-January to get a stabile read in that area of the economy. But inflation-adjusted chain store sales remained strong in the week following Christmas despite a snowstorm in the Northeast. The storm delayed bargain-hunting by a few days, but shoppers still managed to get it all in.
On a weekly year-over-year basis, the barometer was up +4.2 percent in the week ending January 1, 2011, which compares to an average -3.3 percent decline over the Great Recession (determined to have ended in June 2009 according to the NBER). After flat lining in 2006, and declining from 2007 through 2009, the barometer bounced back in 2010 to rise by +3.4 percent, which was the strongest increase since 1994 (+4.0%), but not so impressive when you compare it to an -8.0 percent drop in 2009. The smoothed version of the barometer, which attempts to account for weekly volatility, increased by +0.2 percent in the week ending January 1st, while its year-over-year growth rate accelerated slightly to +5.4 percent.
Posted: January 13, 2011 Thursday 10:00 AM