Research >> Economics
BTMU U.S. Business Barometer fell by 0.4%
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For the week ending March 5 2016, the BTMU U.S. Business Barometer fell by 0.4 percent to 97.3, largely driven by weak performances in production indexes. For example, auto and truck production declined by 2.6 and 6.5 percent, respectively. Likewise, coal and steel production dipped by 3.4 and 0.9 percent, respectively. As to the consumption side, chain store sales dropped by 1.9 percent, extending the fall for two weeks in a row, although this week’s loss was somewhat offset by gains in MBA’s purchase index and railroad freight car loadings.
On a year-over-year basis, the barometer declined by 1.1 percent, which compares to an average -3.3 percent decline over the Great Recession (ended in June 2009 according to the NBER). After flat lining in 2006, and declining from 2007 through 2009, the barometer bounced back in 2010 to rise by 3.4 percent, which was the strongest increase since 1994 (+4.0 percent), but not so impressive when compared to an -8.0 percent drop in 2009. The rate of increase for the 2013 slowed to 0.7 percent following 1.5 percent in 2012.
The smoothed version of the barometer, which attempts to account for weekly volatility, declined by 0.1 percent to 97.5. Its year-over-year growth rate was -0.8 percent.
Posted: March 17, 2016 Thursday 10:00 AM