Research >> Economics
Forecasters See Stronger Quarterly Growth With Lower Unemployment
|
The outlook for growth over the next three quarters looks stronger now than it did three months ago, according to 42 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Growth this quarter will be 3.3 percent at an annual rate, up from the previous estimate of 3.0 percent. Third-quarter growth will be 2.9 percent, an upward revision from the previous projection of 2.8 percent, while fourth-quarter growth will be 3.2 percent, up from 2.7 percent in the last survey. At the same time, surprisingly weak historical first-quarter growth is pulling down the survey’s current projection for growth in the annual-average level of real GDP in 2014, from 2.8 percent in the last survey to 2.4 percent in this survey.
The forecasters see an improved outlook for the unemployment rate over the next three years. The forecasters predict that the unemployment rate will be an annual average of 6.4 percent in 2014, before falling to 5.9 percent in 2015, 5.6 percent in 2016, and 5.5 percent in 2017. The projections for 2014, 2015, and 2016 are below those of the last survey.
On the jobs front, the forecasters have revised upward their estimates for job gains in 2014. The forecasters’ projections for the annual-average level of nonfarm payroll employment suggest job gains at a monthly rate of 196,500 in 2014, up from the previous estimate of 187,700, and 202,700 in 2015, as the table below shows. (These annual-average estimates are computed as the year-to-year change in the annual-average level of nonfarm payroll employment, converted to a monthly rate.)
Posted: May 16, 2014 Friday 10:00 AM