Research >> Economics

S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices gained 0.4% in September


S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for September 2016 shows that home prices continued their rise across the country over the last 12 months.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, surpassed the peak set in July 2006 as the housing boom topped out. The National index reported a 5.5% annual gain in September, up from 5.1% last month. The 10-City Composite posted a 4.3% annual increase, up from 4.2% the previous month. The 20-City Composite reported a yearover-year gain of 5.1%, unchanged from August. Seattle, Portland, and Denver reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities over each of the last eight months. In September, Seattle led the way with an 11.0% year-over-year price increase, followed by Portland with 10.9%, and Denver with an 8.7% increase. 12 cities reported greater price increases in the year ending September 2016 versus the year ending August 2016.

MONTH-OVER-MONTH
Before seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month gain of 0.4% in September. Both the 10-City Composite and the 20-City Composite posted a 0.1% increase in September. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index recorded a 0.8% month-over-month increase, the 10-City Composite posted a 0.2% month-over-month increase, and the 20-City Composite reported a 0.4% month-over-month increase. 15 of 20 cities reported increases in September before seasonal adjustment; after seasonal adjustment, all 20 cities saw prices rise.

ANALYSIS
“The new peak set by the S&P Case-Shiller CoreLogic National Index will be seen as marking a shift from the housing recovery to the hoped-for start of a new advance” says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “While seven of the 20 cities previously reached new post-recession peaks, those that experienced the biggest booms -- Miami, Tampa, Phoenix and Las Vegas -- remain well below their all-time highs. Other housing indicators are also giving positive signals: sales of existing and new homes are rising and housing starts at an annual rate of 1.3 million units are at a post-recession peak.

From 1975 (the earliest date for the S&P Case-Shiller CoreLogic National Index) to this report, home prices rose at an annual rate of 4.9% before adjusting for inflation. The real or inflation adjusted pace was 1.1% per year. Real disposable personal income per capita – income after inflation and taxes on a per-person basis -- rose 1.9%, outpacing home prices over the entire period. The stock market, measured by the S&P 500 adjusted for inflation, did better at 4.4% per year. As seen in the table, the time frame makes a big difference. We are currently experiencing the best real estate returns since the bottom in July of 2012 when prices rose at a 5.9% real annual rate. Given history, this trend is unlikely to be sustained.”

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, which covers all nine U.S. census divisions, recorded a 5.5% annual gain in September 2016. The 10-City and 20-City Composites reported year-over-year increases of 4.3% and 5.1%. As of September 2016, average home prices for the MSAs within the 10-City and 20-City Composites are back to their winter 2007 levels.






Posted: November 29, 2016 Tuesday 09:00 AM




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