Research >> Economics
DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer was flat
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For the week ending September 3, 2011, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer was flat after increasing +0.1 percent in the prior week. In spite of the flat reading in the latest week, however, seventy percent of the components posted a gain, reversing their course in the week ending August 20th where seventy percent of the components declined. On the consumption side, inflation-adjusted chain store sales declined partially reflecting the impact of Hurricane Irene over the Northeast region, while mortgage applications and box office receipts showed a modest gain in the latest week. On the production side, electric output jumped for two consecutive weeks, offsetting the decline in chain store sales.
On a year-over-year basis, the barometer slowed markedly to +1.1 percent in the week ending September 3, 2011, which compares to an average -3.3 percent decline over the Great Recession (determined to have ended in June 2009 according to the NBER). After flat lining in 2006, and declining from 2007 through 2009, the barometer bounced back in 2010 to rise by +3.4 percent, which was the strongest increase since 1994 (+4.0%), but not so impressive when you compare it to an -8.0 percent drop in 2009.
The smoothed version of the barometer, which attempts to account for weekly volatility, was flat in the latest week ending September 3rd, after declining for six consecutive weeks, while its year-over-year growth rate slowed to +1.2 percent for two weeks in a row.
Posted: September 15, 2011 Thursday 10:00 AM