Research >> Economics
BTMU U.S. Business Barometer fell by 1.0%
For the week ending January 2 2016, the BTMU U.S. Business Barometer fell by 1.0 percent to 96.8, extending the fall for three consecutive weeks. This week’s drop was driven by both consumption and production indexes. Chain store sales, for example, dipped by 2.3 percent following a sharp loss of 1.6 percent in the previous week; while MBA’s purchase index dropped by 11.1 percent. As to the production side, all indexes except electric output, which rose by 14.1 percent, reported losses. For instance, lumber and steel production fell by 2.2 and 2.0 percent, respectively.
On a year-over-year basis, the barometer showed a loss of -1.7 percent, which compares to an average -3.3 percent decline over the Great Recession (ended in June 2009 according to the NBER). After flat lining in 2006, and declining from 2007 through 2009, the barometer bounced back in 2010 to rise by 3.4 percent, which was the strongest increase since 1994 (+4.0 percent), but not so impressive when compared to an -8.0 percent drop in 2009. The rate of increase for the 2013 slowed to 0.7 percent following 1.5 percent in 2012.
The smoothed version of the barometer, which attempts to account for weekly volatility, decreased by 0.3 percent to 97.5. Its year-over-year growth rate was -1.7 percent.
Posted: January 14, 2016 Thursday 10:00 AM