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Chicago Fed National Activity Index Suggests slower economic growth in October 2022
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The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to –0.05 in October from +0.17 in September. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made negative contributions in October, and three categories deteriorated from September. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved down to +0.09 in October from +0.19 in September.
The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, decreased to +0.13 in October from +0.25 in September. Forty-five of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in October, while 40 made negative contributions. Thirty-three indicators improved from September to October, while 51 indicators deteriorated and one was unchanged. Of the indicators that improved, six made negative contributions.
Production-related indicators contributed –0.05 to the CFNAI in October, down slightly from –0.02 in September. Industrial production decreased 0.1 percent in October after increasing 0.1 percent in September. The contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories category to the CFNAI moved down to –0.01 in October from +0.07 in the previous month.
Employment-related indicators contributed –0.02 to the CFNAI in October, down from +0.10 in September. The unemployment rate ticked up to 3.7 percent in October from 3.5 percent in September. The contribution of the personal consumption and housing category to the CFNAI ticked up to +0.03 in October from +0.02 in September.
The CFNAI was constructed using data available as of November 17, 2022. At that time, October data for 50 of the 85 indicators had been published. For all missing data, estimates were used in constructing the index. The September monthly index value was revised to +0.17 from an initial estimate of +0.10, and the August monthly index value was revised to +0.14 from last month’s estimate of +0.10. Revisions to the monthly index can be attributed to two main factors: revisions in previously published data and differences between the estimates of previously unavailable data and subsequently published data. The revisions to both the September and August monthly index values were primarily due to the latter.
Posted: November 21, 2022 Monday 08:30 AM