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DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer picked up by 0.2%
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For the week ending January 31 2015, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer picked up by 0.2 percent to 98.4, after declining for two weeks in a row. The recovery in this week’s barometer is chiefly driven by consumption indexes. Chain store sales rose by a solid 1.5 percent, reversing the weakening trend of the past few weeks. Freight car loadings also increased by 0.2 percent. As to the production side, almost all indexes except auto production declined. For instance, lumber and coal production fell by 1.5 and 3.8 percent, respectively.
On a year-over-year basis, the barometer showed a gain of 1.0 percent, which compares to an average -3.3 percent decline over the Great Recession (ended in June 2009 according to the NBER). After flat lining in 2006, and declining from 2007 through 2009, the barometer bounced back in 2010 to rise by 3.4 percent, which was the strongest increase since 1994 (+4.0 percent), but not so impressive when compared to an -8.0 percent drop in 2009. The rate of increase for the 2013 slowed to 0.7 percent following 1.5 percent in 2012.
The smoothed version of the barometer, which attempts to account for weekly volatility, remained at 98.4. Its year-over-year growth rate was 1.0 percent.
Posted: February 12, 2015 Thursday 10:00 AM