Research >> Economics
DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer rose 1.6%
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For the week ending December 18, 2010, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer jumped by +1.6 percent with ninety percent of the components posting gains. The strongest gainers were inflation-adjusted chain store sales, truck production, and lumber and steel production. Motor vehicle production will kick around the barometer in the final weeks of the year because automakers are choosing to keep production rolling instead of winding down operations as the New Year approaches. This can result in an overestimated seasonal boost in the weekly figures. With only a few weeks to go in 2010 the barometer looks to have grown by +3.3 percent following three years of decline (2009: -8.0%, 2008: -1.4%, 2007: -0.6%).
On a weekly year-over-year basis, the barometer accelerated to +4.9 percent in the week ending December 18, 2010, which compares to an average -3.3 percent decline over the Great Recession (based on BTMU’s assumption that the recovery began in June 2009). The year-over-year pace of the barometer has lost ground since peaking at +6.2 percent in the week ending July 10th. It is important to note, however, that the annual comparisons are getting tougher as we move further along in the business cycle.
Posted: December 30, 2010 Thursday 10:00 AM