Research >> Economics
DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer Increased 0.5%
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For the week ending January 14, 2012, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer increased by +0.5 percent after declining for three weeks in a row to a level of 95.9, which is well below 97.2 registered in the week ending December 17, 2011. Inflation-adjusted chain store sales were down slightly after a huge decline in the prior week while MBA’s mortgage applications and railroad carloadings bounced back. As for the production side, auto and truck production rebounded in the latest week and together lifted the barometer index by +0.3 percentage points.
On a year-over-year basis, the barometer grew at a sluggish pace of +0.8 percent for three consecutive weeks, which compares to an average -3.3 percent decline over the Great Recession (determined to have ended in June 2009 according to the NBER). After flatlining in 2006, and declining from 2007 through 2009, the barometer bounced back in 2010 to rise by +3.4 percent, which was the strongest increase since 1994 (+4.0%), but not so impressive when you compare it to an -8.0 percent drop in 2009.
The smoothed version of the barometer, which attempts to account for weekly volatility, dropped by -0.2 percent in the week ending January 14th, while its year-over-year growth rate was +1.0 percent for the third week.
Posted: January 26, 2012 Thursday 10:00 AM