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MUFG U.S. Business Barometer climbed by 0.6%
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For the week ending April 9 2016, the MUFG U.S. Business Barometer climbed by 0.6 percent to 98.1. This week’s gain was mostly driven by consumption indexes. Chain store sales, for instance, bounced back by 1.5 percent, following a loss of 0.5 percent in the previous week. Likewise, MBA’s purchase index and railroad freight car loadings rose by 8.4 and 1.2 percent, respectively. On the production side, gains in some indexes were offset by losses in others. Auto and coal production declined by 4.6 and 5.2 percent, respectively; while electric output and lumber production increased by 3.6 and 1.2 percent, respectively.
On a year-over-year basis, the barometer declined by 0.9 percent, which compares to an average -3.3 percent decline over the Great Recession (ended in June 2009 according to the NBER). After flat lining in 2006, and declining from 2007 through 2009, the barometer bounced back in 2010 to rise by 3.4 percent, which was the strongest increase since 1994 (+4.0 percent), but not so impressive when compared to an -8.0 percent drop in 2009. The rate of increase for the 2013 slowed to 0.7 percent following 1.5 percent in 2012.
The smoothed version of the barometer, which attempts to account for weekly volatility, rose by 0.1 percent to 97.8. Its year-over-year growth rate was -1.0 percent.
Posted: April 21, 2016 Thursday 10:00 AM