Research >> Economics
Forecasters Predict Slower Growth over the Next Four Years
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Growth in the U.S. economy looks a little slower now than it did three months ago, according to 44 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Our panelists expect real GDP to grow at an annual rate of 3.2 percent this quarter, down from the previous estimate of 3.5 percent. On an annual-average over annual-average basis, the forecasters also predict slower real GDP growth over the next four years. The forecasters see real GDP growing 2.7 percent in 2011, down from their prediction of 3.2 percent in the last survey. The forecasters predict real GDP will grow 3.0 percent in 2012, 2.8 percent in 2013, and 3.3 percent in 2014, each somewhat lower than their respective predictions in the last survey.
The outlook for the labor market is mixed. The forecasters see a brighter picture for the unemployment rate over the next four years. Unemployment is projected to be an annual average of 8.7 percent in 2011, 8.1 percent in 2012, 7.5 percent in 2013, and 7.0 percent in 2014. On the jobs front, the forecasters see slower growth in jobs in 2011 and 2012 than they predicted in the last survey. The forecasters see nonfarm payroll employment growing at a rate of 191,100 jobs per month this quarter and 194,500 jobs per month next quarter. The forecasters' projections for the annual-average level of nonfarm payroll employment suggest job gains at a monthly rate of 130,400 in 2011 and 194,800 in 2012, as the table below shows. (These annual-average estimates are computed as the year-to-year change in the annual-average level of nonfarm payroll employment, converted to a monthly rate.)
Posted: May 13, 2011 Friday 10:00 AM