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DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer declined by 0.3%
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For the week ending July 19 2014, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer declined by 0.3 percent to 98.5, extending the weakening trend to two weeks. The decrease in this week’s barometer is mainly driven by production indexes, in which electric output plummeted by a sharp 10.2 percent as well as truck production (-4.3 percent). As to the consumption side, chain store sales dropped by 0.4 percent, although it was partially cancelled out by minor gains in MBA’s purchase index and railroad freight car loadings.
On a year-over-year basis, the barometer showed a gain of 0.4 percent, which compares to an average -3.3 percent decline over the Great Recession (ended in June 2009 according to the NBER). After flat lining in 2006, and declining from 2007 through 2009, the barometer bounced back in 2010 to rise by 3.4 percent, which was the strongest increase since 1994 (+4.0 percent), but not so impressive when compared to an -8.0 percent drop in 2009. The rate of increase for the 2013 slowed to 0.7 percent following 1.5 percent in 2012.
The smoothed version of the barometer, which attempts to account for weekly volatility, fell by a modest 0.1 percent. Its year-over-year growth rate dropped to 0.9 percent.
Posted: July 31, 2014 Thursday 10:00 AM