The September 2013 Empire State Manufacturing Survey suggests that conditions for New York manufacturers improved modestly for the fourth straight month. The general business conditions index edged down two points but, at 6.3, remained in positive territory. The new orders index inched up two points to 2.4, while the shipments index jumped nearly fifteen points to 16.4—its highest level in considerably more than a year. The prices paid index was little changed at 21.5, while the prices received index climbed another five points to 8.6. Labor market conditions were mostly steady; the index for number of employees retreated three points to 7.5 and the average workweek index edged down to a neutral reading of 1.1. Indexes for the six-month outlook revealed increasingly widespread optimism about future business activity. The future general business conditions index rose for the third straight month, climbing three points to 40.6, its highest level since the spring of 2012.

In response to a series of supplementary questions, manufacturers reported that their selling prices had risen by a little less than 1 percent, on average, over the past year, and they predicted an increase of 1.5 percent, on average, over the next twelve months. These increases roughly matched those reported in last September’s parallel survey. When asked a separate question about the probability of specified price changes over the next twelve months, the average respondent cited a 44 percent chance that selling prices would remain within 2 percent of current levels and a 43 percent chance that they would rise by 2 percent or more, but just a 3 percent chance that they would rise by at least 8 percent. For more details, see the full supplemental report.

Business Conditions Improve for the Fourth Straight Month
Business conditions strengthened for New York State manufacturers for a fourth consecutive month. The general business conditions index stood at 6.3—down almost two points from August but still at a level indicative of modest expansion. Slightly more than 25 percent of respondents reported that conditions had improved over the month, while 20 percent said conditions had worsened. The new orders index edged up two points to 2.4, while the shipments index surged fifteen points to 16.4, indicating that shipments picked up even as orders remained flat. The unfilled orders index was little changed at -6.5. The delivery time index slipped to -4.3, but the inventories index rose nearly six points to 2.2, its first positive reading in more than a year.

Labor Market Stable
Labor market conditions were generally steady: The index for number of employees retreated three points to 7.5, and the average workweek index sustained a similar decline to 1.1. Price indexes were steady or slightly higher. The prices paid index was little changed at 21.5, while the prices received index rose five points to 8.6, suggesting a small acceleration in selling prices.

Six-Month Outlook Remains Favorable
Indexes for the six-month outlook for the most part conveyed increasingly widespread optimism about future business conditions. The future general business conditions index rose three points to 40.6, its highest level since spring 2012. The indexes for both expected new orders and expected shipments rose eight points to about 38; both were up roughly twenty points since June. The future prices paid index was little changed at 39.8, while the index for future prices received rose more than five points to 24.7. The index for expected number of employees slipped four points to 4.3, while the future average workweek index rose modestly but remained negative at -2.2. The capital expenditures index slipped nine points to 15.1, after reaching its highest level in more than a year in August. The technology spending index jumped seven points to 11.8.