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U.S. Leading Economic Index increased 0.3%
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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.3 percent in August to 116.2 (2004 = 100), following a 0.6 percent increase in July and a 0.3 percent increase in June.
The August increase in the U.S. LEI was driven by components measuring financial and monetary conditions which offset substantially weaker components measuring expectations. The growth trend in the LEI has moderated and positive and negative contributors to the index have been roughly balanced. The leading indicators point to rising risks and volatility, and increasing concerns about the health of the expansion.
There is growing risk that sustained weak confidence could put downward pressure on demand and business activity, causing the economy to potentially dip into recession. While the chance of that happening remains below 50-50, the odds have certainly increased in recent months.
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.1 percent in August to 103.3 (2004 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in July, and a 0.2 percent increase in June.
The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) increased 0.3 percent in August to 110.3 (2004 = 100), following a 0.3 percent increase in July, and a 0.3 percent increase in June.
Posted: September 22, 2011 Thursday 10:00 AM