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DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer dropped by 0.2%
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For the week ending April 18 2015, the BTMU U.S. Business Barometer dropped by 0.2 percent to 98.8. This week’s barometer was mainly driven by weak performances in most production indexes, particularly steel production, which reported the largest weekly drop (-3.8 percent) in a year. Lumber production as well declined by 2.2 percent. Although auto and coal production posted significant gains, they were not enough to offset the losses of other productions indexes. As to the consumption side, MBA’s purchase index rose by 5.0 percent, but it was somewhat offset by drops in chain store sales and railroad freight car loadings.
On a year-over-year basis, the barometer showed a gain of 0.6 percent, which compares to an average -3.3 percent decline over the Great Recession (ended in June 2009 according to the NBER). After flat lining in 2006, and declining from 2007 through 2009, the barometer bounced back in 2010 to rise by 3.4 percent, which was the strongest increase since 1994 (+4.0 percent), but not so impressive when compared to an -8.0 percent drop in 2009. The rate of increase for the 2013 slowed to 0.7 percent following 1.5 percent in 2012.
The smoothed version of the barometer, which attempts to account for weekly volatility, stayed at 98.8. Its year-over-year growth rate was 0.6 percent.
Posted: April 30, 2015 Thursday 10:00 AM