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S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices Shows Broad Improvement
Data through July 2009, released today by Standard & Poor’s for its S&P/Case-Shiller1 Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, show that, although still negative, the annual rate of decline of the 10-City and 20-City Composites improved compared to last month’s reading. This marks approximately six months of improved readings in these statistics, beginning in early 2009.
The 10-City and 20-City Composites declined 12.8% and 13.3%, respectively, in July compared to the same month last year. All 20 metro areas also showed an improvement in the annual rates of decline, with July’s readings compared to June.
The rate of annual decline in home price values continues to decelerate and we now seem to be witnessing some sustained monthly increases across many of the markets. The two composites and all metro areas are showing an improvement in the annual rates of return, as seen through a moderation in their annual declines. Looking at the monthly data, the 10-City and 20-City Composites and 18 of the 20 metros areas increased in July. In addition, both Composites and 13 of the MSA have had at least three consecutive months of positive prints. These figures continue to support an indication of stabilization in national real estate values, but we do need to be cautious in coming months to assess whether the housing market will weather the expiration of the Federal First-Time Buyer’s Tax Credit in November, anticipated higher unemployment rates and a possible increase in foreclosures.
Posted: September 29, 2009 Tuesday 09:00 AM