- Business Barometer Three Month Average Highest for Two Years
- Employment Highest since October 2011

The November Chicago Business Barometer softened to 63.0 after October’s sharp rise to a 31-month high of 65.9. November’s slight correction came amid mild declines in New Orders, Production and Order Backlogs after double digit gains in the prior month. ...

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.2 percent in October to 97.5 (2004 = 100), following a 0.9 percent increase in September, and a 0.7 percent increase in August.

The modest rise in the Leading Economic Index in October follows the strong advances recorded in the prior two months, which helps lift the six-month annualized growth rate to 5.1 percent from 3.7 percent in the previous six months. The recent increase in the index supports ...

For the week ending November 16th 2013, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer increased by 0.5 percent from the last week to 97.8. The increase was well balanced as positive contribution came from both production indexes and consumption indexes. On production side, car production, steel, and electricity production contributed to the ...

Consumer confidence rebounded in late November, shaking off the last remnants of the federal shutdown. The November increase was due to an improved outlook for the economy, with the gains primarily among upper income households. Increases in household income and wealth were reflected in more optimistic personal financial assessments among those ...

The Chicago Fed Midwest Manufacturing Index (CFMMI) increased 0.4% in October, to a seasonally adjusted level of 97.4 (2007 = 100). Revised data show the index was up 0.3% in September. The Federal Reserve Board’s industrial production index for manufacturing (IPMFG) moved up 0.3% in October. Regional output rose 5.7% in October from a ...

Led by declines in employment- and production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to –0.18 in October from +0.18 in September. Three of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index decreased from September, and only one of the four categories made a positive contribution to the index ...

In the week ending November 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 316,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 326,000. The 4-week moving average was 331,750, a decrease of 7,500 from the previous week's revised average ...

New orders for manufactured durable goods in October decreased $4.6 billion or 2.0 percent to $230.3 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This decrease, down following two consecutive monthly increases, followed a 4.1 percent September increase. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.1 percent. Excluding defense, new ...

Mortgage applications decreased 0.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 22, 2013.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 0.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 9 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 0.1 ...

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had decreased sharply in October, declined again in November. The Index now stands at 70.4 (1985=100), down from 72.4 in October. The Present Situation Index edged down to 72.0 from 72.6. The Expectations Index declined to 69.3 from 72.2 ...

Manufacturing in the Fifth District improved in November, according to the most recent survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. Shipments and the volume of new orders rose. Employment, average workweek, and wages also picked up this month. Capacity utilization and the backlog of orders flattened, while vendor lead-time rose at a ...

Data through September 2013, released today by S&P Dow Jones Indices for its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, showed that the U.S. National Home Price Index rose 3.2% in the third quarter of 2013 and 11.2% over the last ...

U.S. chain-store sales rose 2.1 percent year on year for the week that ended on November 23, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) and Goldman Sachs. On a weekly basis, same-store sales rose 2.6 percent, the strongest gain in quite some time.

“Demand was mixed this past week with stronger discounter and dollar store business, and softer drug, office and apparel store business," said Michael Niemira, ICSC's vice president of research and chief economist. “With more consumers likely to shop during the Thanksgiving ...

Growth in Texas factory activity picked up for a third consecutive month in November, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rose from 13.3 to 16.9, reaching its highest reading in ...

Although conditions were mixed across the country, pending home sales continued to move lower in October, marking the fifth consecutive monthly decline, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, slipped 0.6 percent to 102.1 in October from an upwardly revised 102.7 in September, and is 1.6 percent below October 2012 when it was 103.8. The index is at the lowest level since ...

Steady Outlook for Growth with Healthier Labor Market

The outlook for growth in the U.S. economy is little changed from the survey of three months ago, according to 42 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The forecasters expect real GDP to grow at an annual rate of 1.8 percent this quarter and 2.5 ...

Tenth District manufacturing activity continued to grow in November, and producers’ expectations for future activity improved moderately. Respondents continued to comment about uncertainty holding back activity, although several firms reported an uptick in hiring plans for skilled positions. Most price indexes decreased, especially for ...

There were 3.9 million job openings on the last business day of September, little changed from August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The hires rate (3.4 percent) and separations rate (3.2 percent) were little changed in September. This release includes estimates of the number and rate of job openings, hires, and ...

Manufacturing growth in the region continued in November but did not match the pace of growth in the preceding month, according to firms responding to this month’s Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s broadest indicators for general activity, new orders, shipments, and employment were positive, signifying growth, but readings for each fell ...

For the week ending November 9th 2013, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer remained at the same level from the last week at 97.3. A positive contribution from a consumption index was cancelled out by negative ones in production side. Consumption was up driven by chain store sales increasing by 1.2 percent after dropping for two consecutive ...

In the week ending November 16, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 323,000, a decrease of 21,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 344,000. The 4-week moving average was 338,500, a decrease of 6,750 from the previous week's revised average ...

The Producer Price Index for finished goods declined 0.2 percent in October, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Prices for finished goods fell 0.1 percent in September and rose 0.3 percent in August. At the earlier stages of processing, prices received by producers of intermediate goods declined 0.4 ...

Existing-home sales declined for the second consecutive month in October, while constrained inventory means home prices continue to see double-digit year-over-year gains, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, fell 3.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.12 million in October from 5.29 million in September, but are 6.0 percent higher than ...

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that the combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for September, adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,299.9 billion, up 0.2 percent (±0.2) from August 2013, and were up 2.9 percent (±1.1) from ...

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) decreased 0.1 percent in October on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.0 percent before seasonal adjustment. The gasoline index fell 2.9 percent in October and led to the ...

Real average hourly earnings for all employees rose 0.2 percent from September to October, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from a 0.1 percent increase in average hourly earnings combined with a 0.1 percent decrease in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban ...

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for October, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $428.1 billion, an increase of 0.4 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month, and 3.9 percent (±0.7%) above October 2012. ...

Mortgage applications decreased 2.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 15, 2013. This week’s results include an adjustment to account for the Veteran’s ...

Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.4 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending September 2013, following a 0.5 percent increase in June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Wages and salaries (which make up about 70 percent of compensation costs) increased 0.3 percent in the September ...

U.S. chain-store sales rose 2.8 percent year on year for the week that ended on November 16, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) and Goldman Sachs. Week-to-week comparable-store sales improved 0.1 percent.

“The consumer seemed to take advantage of the Veteran’s Day holiday and week more so than last year to shop and spend," said Michael Niemira, ICSC's vice president of research and chief economist. “The ICSC-Goldman Sachs consumer channel checking survey found strong demand ...

Builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes was unchanged in November from a downwardly revised level of 54 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. This means that for the sixth consecutive month, more builders have viewed market conditions as good ...

The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for September 2013. The sum total in September of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a monthly net TIC outflow of negative $106.8 billion. Of this, net foreign private outflows ...

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that September 2013 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading-day differences but not for price changes, were $430.5 billion, up 0.6 percent (+/-0.5%) from the revised August level and were up 3.9 percent ...

Industrial production edged down 0.1 percent in October after having increased 0.7 percent in September. Manufacturing production rose 0.3 percent in October for its third consecutive monthly gain. The index for mining fell 1.6 percent after having risen for six consecutive months, and the output of utilities dropped 1.1 percent after ...

U.S. import prices declined 0.7 percent in October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, led by lower fuel prices. The October decrease in overall import prices followed comparatively modest advances in each of the previous 3 months. Prices for U.S. exports fell 0.5 percent in October, after a 0.4 percent increase the ...

The November 2013 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that manufacturing conditions weakened somewhat for New York manufacturers. The general business conditions index fell four points to -2.2, its first negative reading since May. The new orders index also entered negative territory, falling thirteen points to -5.5, and the ...

For the week ending November 2nd 2013, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer declined slightly by 0.2 percent to 97.2, following a flat reading in the prior week. A weakening trend in consumption still continues; chain store sales dropped by 0.6 percent after a decrease of 0.4 percent in the previous week and MBA’s purchase index also ...

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased at a 1.9 percent annual rate during the third quarter of 2013, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The increase in productivity reflects increases of 3.7 percent in output and 1.7 percent in hours worked. (All quarterly percent changes in this release are seasonally ...

In the week ending November 9, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 339,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 341,000. The 4-week moving average was 344,000, a decrease of 5,750 from the previous week's revised average ...

The Nation’s international trade deficit in goods and services increased to $41.8 billion in September from $38.7 billion in August (revised), as exports decreased and imports increased.

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that total September exports of $188.9 billion and imports of $230.7 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $41.8 billion, up from $38.7 billion ...

Mortgage applications decreased 1.8 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 8, 2013. This week's results are compared to a revised level from last week. That decline, initially reported as -7.0 percent, was revised to ...

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) decreased in October. The index now stands at 113.65, down from 114.68 (a downward revision) in September. The ETI figure for October is 4.9 percent higher than a year ago.

Like many other economic indicators, the October decline of the Employment Trends Index was partially due to the government shutdown. The latest job numbers do in fact show some strengthening in the employment trend. But as domestic demand was weaker than expected in the ...

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to +0.14 in September from +0.13 in August. Two of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index increased from August, and three of the four categories made positive contributions to the index ...

The NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism lost 2.3 points to 91.6. Two components, the outlook for business conditions and the outlook for real sales gains, accounted for 52 percent of the Index decline. A weaker outlook for business produced dissatisfaction with inventory stocks, and fewer plans to create new jobs. The average value of the ...

U.S. chain-store sales rose 2.3 percent year on year for the week that ended on November 9, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) and Goldman Sachs. On a week-to-week basis, comparable-store sales increased 1.2 percent.

“Sales picked up in the first week of the November sales period as cold weather, lower gasoline prices, an easy comparisons with the Hurricane Sandy impact one year ago and likely some improving employment news all coming together to spur demand," said Michael Niemira, ...

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 204,000 in October, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 7.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in leisure and hospitality, retail trade, professional and technical services, manufacturing, and ...

Personal income increased $67.4 billion, or 0.5 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $64.8 billion, or 0.5 percent, in September, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $24.7 billion, or 0.2 percent. In August, personal income increased $65.6 billion, or 0.5 percent, ...

Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5-1/4 percent during the third quarter. Revolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 2-1/4 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 8 percent. In September, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of ...

For the week ending October 26th 2013, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer remained the same level from the prior week at 97.4. There were not significant movements in indexes this week. Consumption side weakened slightly as chain store sales dropped by 0.4 percent following an increase in the previous week. Production somewhat contributed to ...

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 2.8 percent in the third quarter of 2013 (that is, from the second quarter to the third quarter), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In ...