Consumer confidence edged downward in the January survey, although the overall falloff was minor. Unfortunately, in the months ahead larger than normal home heating bills caused by the frigid weather will strain budgets across the country, with the greatest negative impact on lower income households. Slowing gains in stock and home values ...

- Employment Slips Into Contraction
- Production, New Orders, Backlogs Rise Slightly

The Chicago Business Barometer softened to 59.6 in January from a revised 60.8 in December, the third consecutive monthly fall following October’s jump to the highest since March 2011. ...

Personal income increased $2.3 billion, or less than 0.1 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) decreased $3.8 billion, or less than 0.1 percent, in December according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $44.1 billion, or 0.4 percent. In November, personal income increased $29.8 billion, ...

Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.5 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending December 2013, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Wages and salaries (which make up about 70 percent of compensation costs) increased 0.6 percent, and benefits (which make up the remaining 30 percent of ...

Pending home sales measurably dropped in December, with abnormal weather partly inhibiting home shopping in much of the U.S., according to the National Association of Realtors®. Declines were experienced in all four major regions.

The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, fell 8.7 percent to 92.4 in December from a downwardly revised 101.2 in November, and is 8.8 percent below December 2012 when it was 101.3. The data reflect contracts but not closings, ...

For the week ending January 18 2014, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer decreased drastically by 0.9 percent and continued to weaken since the end of December 2013. Most of the major components except for auto and truck production showed declines. Consumption indexes worsened the barometer markedly; chain store sales decreased by 1.8 ...

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 3.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013 (that is, from the third quarter to the fourth quarter), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In ...

In the week ending January 25, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 348,000, an increase of 19,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 329,000. The 4-week moving average was 333,000, an increase of 750 from the previous week's revised average ...

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December indicates that growth in economic activity picked up in recent quarters. Labor market indicators were mixed but on balance showed further improvement. The unemployment rate declined but remains elevated. Household spending and business fixed investment advanced ...

Mortgage applications decreased 0.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 24, 2014. The results include an adjustment to account for the Martin Luther King, ...

Manufacturing in the Fifth District maintained a steady pace of growth, according to the most recent survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. Shipments continued at about last month's pace, while the volume of new orders edged up. New hiring softened, while the average workweek picked up and wage growth remained solid. The backlog of ...

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had rebounded in December, increased again in January. The Index now stands at 80.7 (1985=100), up from 77.5 in December. The Present Situation Index increased to 79.1 from 75.3. The Expectations Index increased to 81.8 from 79.0 ...

Data through November 2013, released today by S&P Dow Jones Indices for its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, showed that the 10-City and 20-City Composites increased 13.8% and 13.7% year-over-year. Dallas posted its highest annual return of 9.9% since its inception in 2000. Chicago also stood out ...

New orders for manufactured durable goods in December decreased $10.3 billion or 4.3 percent to $229.3 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This decrease, down two of the last three months, followed a 2.6 percent November increase. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 1.6 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased ...

Mother Nature once again roared this past week causing unevenness in sales results within the industry. As a result, weekly sales rose by a slight 0.2% ending January 25, 2014, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) and Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index. On a year-over-year basis, however, the pace of ...

Texas factory activity increased for the ninth month in a row in January, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, edged up from 6 to 7.1, indicating output grew at a slightly stronger pace than ...

Sales of new single-family houses in December 2013 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 414,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 7.0 percent (±17.5%) below the revised November rate of 445,000, but is 4.5 percent (±19.8%) above the ...

Tenth District manufacturing activity rebounded moderately in January, and factories’ production expectations continued to climb higher. Many contacts blamed winter weather issues for the slowdown in December, citing lost production days, delays in supply shipments, and lower customer demand. Production also declined slightly in January, ...

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.1 percent in December to 99.4 (2004 = 100), following a 1.0 percent increase in November, and a 0.1 percent increase in October.

“Despite month-to-month volatility in the final quarter of 2013, the U.S. LEI continues to point to gradually strengthening economic conditions through early 2014,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Economist at The Conference Board. “The LEI was lifted by its financial components in ...

For the week ending January 11 2014, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer decreased by 0.5 percent to 97.9, the lowest since December 7 2013, following declines for two weeks in a row. This week’s barometer was dragged by production side in which most of its components were down. After a rebound, auto and truck production dropped sharply again ...

Existing-home sales edged up in December, sales for all of 2013 were the highest since 2006, and median prices maintained strong growth, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, increased 1.0 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.87 million in December from a downwardly revised 4.82 million in November, but ...

Led by declines in employment- and production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to +0.16 in December from +0.69 in November. Three of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index decreased from November, although three of the four categories also made positive contributions to the ...

In the week ending January 18, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 326,000, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 325,000. The 4-week moving average was 331,500, a decrease of 3,750 from the previous week's revised average ...

U.S. chain-store sales rose 0.9 percent year on year for the week that ended on January 18, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) and Goldman Sachs. However, week-to-week comparable-store sales fell 1.9 percent as consumers curbed their desire ...

Mortgage applications increased 4.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 17, 2014.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 4.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 7 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 10 ...

There were 4.0 million job openings on the last business day of November, little changed from October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The hires rate (3.3 percent) and separations rate (3.1 percent) were unchanged in November. This release includes estimates of the number and rate of job openings, hires, and separations for ...

Industrial production rose 0.3 percent in December, its fifth consecutive monthly increase. For the fourth quarter as a whole, industrial production advanced at an annual rate of 6.8 percent, the largest quarterly increase since the second quarter of 2010; gains were widespread across industries. Following increases of 0.6 percent in each of ...

BUILDING PERMITS
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 986,000. This is 3.0 percent (±1.1%) below the revised November rate of 1,017,000, but is 4.6 percent (±1.1%) above the December 2012 estimate of 943,000. Single-family authorizations in December were at a rate ...

Manufacturing growth in the region continued in January, according to firms responding to this month’s Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s broadest indicators for general activity, new orders, shipments, and employment were positive, signifying continued moderate growth. The survey's indicators of future activity moderated but continue ...

Builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes fell one point to 56 in January from a revised December reading of 57 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), released today.

“Following an unexpected jump last month, builder confidence has essentially leveled out and is holding at a solid level,” said NAHB Chairman Rick Judson, a home builder from Charlotte, N.C. “Many markets continue to improve and this bodes well for future home sales.” ...

For the week ending January 4 2014, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer was flat following two consecutive weeks’ drop. A surge in production indexes was offset by decreases in consumption indexes where a significant drop in chain store sales was seen. Production side was driven up by a rebound in auto and truck production which jumped by ...

The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for November 2013. The sum total in November of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a monthly net TIC outflow of $16.6 billion. Of this, net foreign private outflows were $30.5 ...

Real average hourly earnings for all employees fell 0.3 percent from November to December, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This decrease stems from a 0.1 percent increase in average hourly earnings being more than offset by a 0.3 percent increase in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban ...

In the week ending January 11, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 326,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 328,000. The 4-week moving average was 335,000, a decrease of 13,500 from the previous week's revised average ...

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent in December on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.5 percent before seasonal adjustment.

Advances in energy and shelter indexes were major factors in the increase ...

Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts suggest economic activity continued to expand across most regions and sectors from late November through the end of the year. Nine Districts indicated the local economy was expanding at a moderate pace; among these, the Atlanta and Chicago Districts saw conditions improve compared with the ...

The Producer Price Index for finished goods advanced 0.4 percent in December, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Prices for finished goods declined 0.1 percent in November and 0.2 percent in October. At the earlier stages of processing, prices received by producers of intermediate goods rose 0.6 percent ...

The January 2014 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that business activity expanded for New York manufacturers, and did so at a faster pace than in recent months. The general business conditions index rose ten points to 12.5, its highest level in more than a year. The new orders index climbed thirteen points to 11.0, a two-year high, ...

Mortgage applications increased 11.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 10, 2014. The previous week’s results included an adjustment for the New ...

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that the combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for November, adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,318.2 billion, up 0.8 percent (±0.2) from October 2013, and were up 4.0 percent (±1.2) from November ...

U.S. import prices recorded no change in December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, following declines of 0.9 percent in November and 0.6 percent in October. In December, higher fuel prices offset declining nonfuel prices. U.S. export prices advanced 0.4 percent in December, after edging up 0.1 percent the ...

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for December, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $431.9 billion, an increase of 0.2 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month, and 4.1 percent (±0.7%) above December 2012. ...

U.S. chain-store sales rose 1.3 percent year on year for the week the ended on January 11, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) and Goldman Sachs. However, week-to-week comparable-store sales slipped 1 percent, marking a second ...

Owner sentiment increased by 1.4 points to 93.9 in December. Adding November’s gain, the Index has improved 2.3 points to end the year well above the January reading of 88.9 – but lower than three other readings over 94 during the year. It’s hard to make that case that the small business sector has made significant progress. The highest reading ...

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) increased in December. The index now stands at 115.76, up from 115.72 (an upward revision) in November. The ETI figure for December is 5.2 percent higher than a year ago.

Despite the disappointing job numbers for December, the improvement in the Employment Trends Index is signaling solid employment growth in the months ahead. With the labor force barely growing, partly due to the massive wave of baby boomers retiring, this job growth will ...

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that November 2013 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading-day differences but not for price changes, were $440.1 billion, up 1.0 percent (+/-0.5%) from the revised October level and were up 5.5 percent ...

The unemployment rate declined from 7.0 percent to 6.7 percent in December, while total nonfarm payroll employment edged up (+74,000), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment rose in retail trade and wholesale trade but was down in information.

The number of unemployed persons declined by 490,000 to 10.4 million in December, and the unemployment rate declined by 0.3 percentage point to 6.7 percent. Over the year, the number of unemployed persons and the unemployment rate were down by 1.9 million and 1.2 percentage ...

For the week ending December 28 2013, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer dropped by 0.5 percent following a slight decrease in the prior week although it remained relatively high. Both consumption and production indexes negatively contributed to this week’s barometer. Chain store sales rose again this week after increasing for two ...

In the week ending January 4, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 330,000, a decrease of 15,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 345,000. The 4-week moving average was 349,000, a decrease of 9,750 from the previous week's revised average ...

Announced job cuts fell to the lowest level of the year in December as U.S.-based employers reported plans to reduce payrolls by 30,623 during the month. That was down 32 percent from a November total of 45,314. For the year, job cuts were down about 3.0 percent from 2012, according to the latest report on monthly job cuts released Thursday ...