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Category: Research - Topic: Economics - 201906



University of Michigan Consumer Confidence moved lower in June to 98.2
Posted: June 28, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

June’s small overall decline in consumer confidence was entirely due to households with incomes in the top third of the distribution, who more frequently mentioned the negative impact of tariffs—cited by 45%, up from 30% last month, according to the University of Michigan Surveys ...


Chicago Purchasing Managers Index decreased by 4.5 points to 49.7 in June
Posted: June 28, 2019 at 09:45 AM (Friday)

The MNI Chicago Business Barometer decreased by 4.5 points to 49.7 in June from 54.2 in May, marking the first sub-50 reading since January 2017.

Business confidence dipped significantly in Q2, with the Barometer averaging 52.2, down 13% on the previous quarter and almost 16% lower than Q2 2018. ...


Personal Income increased 0.5%, Spending increased 0.4%
Posted: June 28, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Personal income increased $88.6 billion (0.5 percent) in May according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $72.6 billion (0.5 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $59.7 billion ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity was flat in June
Posted: June 27, 2019 at 11:00 AM (Thursday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity was flat in June, while expectations for future activity remained solid. Price indexes were lower than a month ago, indicating that prices continue to rise but at a slower pace. The raw materials price index was lower than a year ago, and expectations for future price indexes also ...


Pending Home Sales Index Increased 1.1% in May
Posted: June 27, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Pending home sales increased in May, a positive variation from the minor sales dip seen in the previous month, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Three of the four major regions saw growth in contract activity, with the West experiencing a slight ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase 10,000 to 227,000
Posted: June 27, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending June 22, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 227,000, an increase of 10,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 216,000 to 217,000. The 4-week moving average was 221,250, an increase of 2,250 from the previous week's revised average. ...


1Q2019 GDP final estimate increased 3.1%
Posted: June 27, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.1 percent in the first quarter of 2019, according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2018, real GDP increased 2.2 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "second" estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was also 3.1 percent. Upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment, exports, state ...


May New Orders for Durable Goods decreased 1.3%, Ex-Trans up 0.3%
Posted: June 26, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in May decreased $3.3 billion or 1.3 percent to $243.4 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This decrease, down three of the last four months, followed a 2.8 percent April decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.3 percent. Excluding defense, new orders ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: June 26, 2019 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 1.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending June 21, 2019.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 1.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 1 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 3 ...


New Home Sales in May at annual rate of 626,000
Posted: June 25, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

New Home Sales
Sales of new single‐family houses in May 2019 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 626,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 7.8 percent (±14.7 percent)* below the revised April rate of 679,000 and is 3.7 percent ...


Consumer Confidence declined in June to 121.5
Posted: June 25, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® declined in June, following an increase in May. The Index now stands at 121.5 (1985=100), down from 131.3 in May. The Present Situation Index – based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions – decreased from 170.7 to 162.6. The Expectations Index – based on ...


Richmond Fed's Current Activity Index dropped slightly from 5 to 3 in June
Posted: June 25, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Fifth District manufacturing activity changed little in June, according to the most recent survey from the Richmond Fed. The composite index dropped slightly from 5 in May to 3 in June, resulting from a drop in the employment index, while the other two components, shipments and new orders rose slightly. Most firms reported some improvement ...


S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices Increased 0.9% in April
Posted: June 25, 2019 at 09:00 AM (Tuesday)

S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for April 2019 shows that the rate of home price increases across the U.S. has continued to slow.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 3.5% annual gain in April, down from 3.7% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 2.3%, up from 2.2% in the ...


Philadelphia Fed NonManufacturing Survey Suggest Activity Moderated in June
Posted: June 25, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Responses to the June Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest a moderation of nonmanufacturing activity in the region. The index for general activity at the firm level fell for the second consecutive month and the index for sales/revenues fell for the third consecutive month, while the full-time employment and new orders indexes edged ...


Texas Fed Manufacturing Activity Continues to Expand but Pace Slows in June
Posted: June 24, 2019 at 10:30 AM (Monday)

Texas factory activity continued to expand in June, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rose from 6.3 to 8.9, indicating output growth accelerated slightly ...


Chicago Fed National Activity points to a pickup in economic growth in May
Posted: June 24, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

Led by improvements in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to –0.05 in May from –0.48 in April. Three of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index increased from April, but only one of the four categories made a positive contribution to the index in May. The index’s ...


Existing-Home Sales jumped 2.5% in May
Posted: June 21, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Existing-home sales rebounded in May, recording an increase in sales for the first time in two months, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Each of the four major U.S. regions saw a growth in sales, with the Northeast experiencing the biggest surge ...


U.S. Leading Economic Index was unchanged in May
Posted: June 20, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. was unchanged in May, remaining at 111.8 (2016 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in April, and a 0.2 percent increase in March.

“The US LEI was unchanged in May, following three consecutive increases,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “Positive contributions from financial conditions and consumers’ outlook offset the weakness in stock prices and the ...


1Q2019 Current Account Deficit Decreased
Posted: June 20, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

The U.S. current-account deficit decreased to $130.4 billion (preliminary) in the first quarter of 2019 from $143.9 billion (revised) in the fourth quarter of 2018, according to statistics released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The deficit was 2.5 percent of current-dollar gross domestic product in the first quarter, down from ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 6,000 to 216,000
Posted: June 20, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending June 15, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 216,000, a decrease of 6,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 222,000. The 4-week moving average was 218,750, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week's unrevised average ...


Philadelphia Fed Outlook Reported Activity declined in June
Posted: June 20, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Manufacturing conditions in the region weakened this month, according to firms responding to the June Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The current activity index declined to a reading just above zero this month. The survey’s indexes for new orders, shipments, and employment remained positive but also declined from their May readings. Most ...


FOMC target funds rate maintained at 2.25% - 2.50%
Posted: June 19, 2019 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in May indicates that the labor market remains strong and that economic activity is rising at a moderate rate. Job gains have been solid, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Although growth of household spending appears to have picked up ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: June 19, 2019 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 3.4 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending June 14, 2019.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 3.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 4 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 4 ...


April Housing Starts decreased 0.9%, Permits up 0.3%
Posted: June 18, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Building Permits
Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,294,000. This is 0.3 percent (±1.3 percent)* above the revised April rate of 1,290,000, but is 0.5 percent (±1.4 percent)* below the May 2018 rate of 1,301,000. Single‐family authorizations in May were at a rate ...


Treasury International Capital Data for April 2019
Posted: June 17, 2019 at 04:00 PM (Monday)

The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for April 2019. The sum total in April of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a net TIC outflow of $7.8 billion. Of this, net foreign private outflows were $6.8 billion, and net ...


NAHB Builder Confidence fell 2 points to 64 in June
Posted: June 17, 2019 at 10:01 AM (Monday)

Builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes fell two points to 64 in June, according to the latest NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. Sentiment levels have held at a solid range in the low- to mid-60s for the past ...


Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions took a sharp turn downward in June
Posted: June 17, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

Business activity took a sharp turn downward in New York State, according to firms responding to the June 2019 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index plummeted twenty-six points, its largest monthly decline on record, to -8.6. New orders receded, while shipments increased modestly. Unfilled orders ...


Business Inventories up 0.5% in April
Posted: June 14, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

The combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for April, adjusted for seasonal and trading day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,462.0 billion, down 0.2 percent (±0.2 percent)* from March 2019, but was up 2.8 percent (±0.3 percent) from ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Preliminary June Results dipped to 97.9
Posted: June 14, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

In early June, consumer sentiment reversed the May gain due to tariffs as well as slowing gains in employment. Some of the decline was due to expected tariffs on Mexican imports, which may be reversed in late June, but most of the concern was with the 25% tariffs on nearly half of all Chinese imports. Consumers responded by lowering ...


Industrial Production rose 0.4%
Capacity Utilization increased to 78.1%

Posted: June 14, 2019 at 09:15 AM (Friday)

Industrial production rose 0.4 percent in May after falling 0.4 percent in April. The indexes for manufacturing and mining gained 0.2 percent and 0.1 percent, respectively, in May; the index for utilities climbed 2.1 percent. At 109.6 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production was 2.0 percent higher in May than it was a year ...


U.S. Retail Sales for May Increase 0.5%, Ex-Auto up 0.5%
Posted: June 14, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for May 2019, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $519.0 billion, an increase of 0.5 percent (±0.5 percent)* from the previous month, and 3.2 percent (±0.7 percent) above May 2018. Total sales for the March 2019 through ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase 3,000 to 222,000
Posted: June 13, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending June 8, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 222,000, an increase of 3,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 218,000 to 219,000. The 4-week moving average was 217,750, an increase of 2,500 from the previous week's revised average. The ...


U.S. Import Price Index declined 0.3% in May
Posted: June 13, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Prices for U.S. imports declined 0.3 percent in May, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, following an increase of 0.1 percent the previous month. Lower fuel and nonfuel prices contributed to the May decline in import prices. U.S. export prices fell 0.2 percent in May, after advancing 0.1 percent in April, 0.8 percent in March, ...


Consumer Price Index increased 0.1% in May, Ex Fd & Engy rose 0.1%
Posted: June 12, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1 percent in May on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.3 percent in April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.8 percent before ...


Real Average Hourly Earnings increased 0.2% in May
Posted: June 12, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Real average hourly earnings for all employees increased 0.2 percent from April to May, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from a 0.2-percent increase in average hourly earnings combined with a 0.1-percent increase in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: June 12, 2019 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 26.8 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending June 7, 2019. The results for the week ending May 31, 2019 included an adjustment for the Memorial ...


Producer Price Index rose 0.1% in May, ex Fd & Engy up 0.4%
Posted: June 11, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.1 percent in May, seasonally adjusted, the U.S.
Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices advanced 0.2 percent in April and
0.6 percent in March. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index increased
1.8 percent for the 12 months ended ...


NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increased 1.5 points to 105.0 in May
Posted: June 11, 2019 at 07:00 AM (Tuesday)

Small business optimism eclipsed pre-shutdown levels, increasing 1.5 points to 105.0 in May. Six components in the Small Business Optimism Index improved, three were unchanged, and one dipped. Capital spending plans increased along with actual outlays. Small business owners’ expectations for sales, business conditions, and expansion all rose, ...


Employment Trends Index increased in May to 111.63
Posted: June 10, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) increased in May, following a decline in April. The index now stands at 111.63, up from 110.21 (a downward revision) in April. The increase marks a 3.5 percent gain in the ETI over the past 12 months.

“The Employment Trends Index increased in May, more than reversing the declines in March and April,” said Gad Levanon, Chief Economist, North America, at The Conference Board. “While we expect some slowdown in job growth, the Employment Trends Index suggests that this ...


Job Openings was little changed at 7.4 million in April
Posted: June 10, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

The number of job openings was little changed at 7.4 million on the last business day of April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires edged up to 5.9 million, and separations were little changed at 5.6 million. Within separations, the quits rate was unchanged at 2.3 percent and the layoffs and discharges ...


Consumer Credit Increased at an annual rate of 5.25% in April
Posted: June 7, 2019 at 03:00 PM (Friday)

In April, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5-1/4 percent. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 8 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 4-1/4 percent.

...


Wholesale Inventories up 0.8% in April
Posted: June 7, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

April 2019 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading day differences but not for price changes, were $503.1 billion, down 0.4 percent (±0.5 percent)* from the revised March level, but were up 2.7 percent (±0.7 percent) from the April 2018 level. ...


May Employment increased by 75,000
Unemployment Rate remained at 3.6%

Posted: June 7, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Total nonfarm payroll employment edged up in May (+75,000), and the unemployment rate remained at 3.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in professional and business services and in health care.

This news release presents statistics from two monthly surveys. The household survey measures labor force status, including unemployment, by demographic characteristics. The establishment survey measures nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings by industry. For more ...


Goods and Services Deficit Decreased in April 2019
Posted: June 6, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

The nation's international trade deficit in goods and services decreased to $50.8 billion in April from $51.9 billion in March (revised), as imports decreased more than exports. The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $50.8 billion in April, down $1.1 billion ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Unchanged at 218,000
Posted: June 6, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending June 1, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 218,000, unchanged from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 3,000 from 215,000 to 218,000. The 4-week moving average was 215,000, a decrease of 2,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous ...


Challenger Layoffs announced 58,577 cuts in May
Posted: June 6, 2019 at 07:30 AM (Thursday)

U.S.-based employers announced plans to cut 58,577 jobs from their payrolls in May, up 46% from the 40,023 cuts announced in April, according to a report released Thursday from global outplacement and business and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.

May’s cuts are up 86% from the same month last year, when 31,517 cuts were announced. So far this year, employers have announced 289,010 job cuts, 39% higher than the 207,977 cuts announced in the same period last year. ...


Beige Book: Economic Activity expanded at a modest pace
Posted: June 5, 2019 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

Overall Economic Activity
Economic activity expanded at a modest pace overall from April through mid-May, a slight improvement over the previous period. Almost all Districts reported some growth, and a few saw moderate gains in activity. Manufacturing reports were generally positive, but some Districts noted signs of slowing activity and a ...


Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine Index declined in May to 101.5
Posted: June 5, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Index declined in May. The Index now stands at 101.5 (July 2018=100), down from 103.9 in April. The Index declined 2.3 percent from the prior month, but is up 3.1 percent from a year ago.

In the Midwest, Nebraska declined 2.8 percent and Michigan fell 2.9 percent. In the Northeast, Rhode Island declined 5.6 percent and New Jersey fell 3.7 percent. In the South, Delaware fell 7.9 percent and West Virginia declined 3.2 percent. In the West, Washington dropped ...


ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increased to 56.9% in May
Posted: June 5, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in May for the 112th consecutive month, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “The NMI® registered 56.9 percent, which is 1.4 percentage points higher than the April reading of ...


ADP National Employment Report increased by 27,000 jobs in May
Posted: June 5, 2019 at 08:15 AM (Wednesday)

Private sector employment increased by 27,000 jobs from April to May according to the May ADP National Employment Report®.

“Following an overly strong April, May marked the smallest gain since the expansion began,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “Large companies continue to remain strong as they are better equipped to compete for labor in a tight ...



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