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Category: Research - Topic: Economics - 202405


Chicago Purchasing Managers Index declines to 35.4 in May 2024
Posted: May 31, 2024 at 09:45 AM (Friday)

The Chicago Business BarometerTM, produced with MNI slowed 2.5 points to 35.4 in May. This is the sixth consecutive monthly decline, making this month’s reading the lowest since May 2020 and 5.5 points below the year-to-date average of 40.9. THE MOVE LOWER WAS DRIVEN BY FALLS IN NEW ORDERS, ORDER BACKLOGS, AND EMPLOYMENT In particular, New ...


Personal Income Increased 0.3%, Spending Increased 0.2% in April 2024
Posted: May 31, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Personal income increased $65.3 billion (0.3 percent at a monthly rate) in April, according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (tables 2 and 3). Disposable personal income (DPI) –personal income less personal current taxes–increased $40.2 billion (0.2 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased ...


Pending Home Sales fell 7.7% in April 2024
Posted: May 30, 2024 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Pending home sales in April fell 7.7%, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. All four U.S. regions registered month-over-month and year-over-year decreases.

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* – a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings – decreased to 72.3 in April. Year over year, pending transactions were down 7.4%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001. ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase 32,000 to 219,000
Posted: May 30, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending May 25, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 219,000, an increase of 3,000
from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 215,000 to 216,000. The
4-week moving average was 222,500, an increase of 2,500 from the previous week's revised average. ...


1Q2024 GDP preliminary estimate increased 1.3%
Posted: May 30, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.3 percent in the first quarter of 2024 (table 1), according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2023, real GDP increased 3.4 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 1.6 percent. The update primarily reflected a downward revision to consumer spending ...


Beige Book: Economic Activity continued to expand from early April to mid-May
Posted: May 29, 2024 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

Overall Economic Activity

National economic activity continued to expand from early April to mid-May; however, conditions varied across industries and Districts. Most Districts reported slight or modest growth, while two noted no change in activity. Retail spending was flat to up slightly, ...


Richmond Fed's Current Activity improved to 0 in May 2024
Posted: May 29, 2024 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Fifth District manufacturing activity improved but remained sluggish in May, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index increased from −7 in April to 0 in May. Of its three component indexes, shipments increased from −10 to 13, new orders increased from −9 to −6, and ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: May 29, 2024 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 5.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 24, 2024. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 5.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one ...


Texas Fed Manufacturing Activity edged down in May 2024
Posted: May 28, 2024 at 10:30 AM (Tuesday)

Texas factory activity edged down in May, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, slipped from 4.8 to -2.8. The negative reading signals a slight decline in output ...


Consumer Confidence rose in May 2024 to 102.0
Posted: May 28, 2024 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® rose in May to 102.0 (1985=100) from 97.5 in April (a slight upward revision). The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—increased to 143.1 (1985=100) in May from 140.6 ...


S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices increase 1.3% in March 2024
Posted: May 28, 2024 at 09:00 AM (Tuesday)

S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) today released the March 2024 results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices. The leading measure of U.S. home prices shows that all of the major metro markets reported month-over-month price increases.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence May 2024 Results down to 66.9
Posted: May 24, 2024 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Sentiment fell back about 10% in May, a departure from three consecutive months of very little change in consumer views, according to the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.

Although consumers’ views about their personal finances were little changed this month, their outlook for short-run business conditions declined notably in May, said U-M economist Joanne Hsu, director of the Surveys of Consumers. ...


April 2024 New Orders for Durable Goods increased 0.7%, Ex-Trans up 0.4%
Posted: May 24, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in April, up three consecutive months, increased $1.9 billion or 0.7 percent to $284.1 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 0.8 percent March increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.4 percent. Excluding defense, new orders were virtually ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity essentially unchanged in May 2024
Posted: May 23, 2024 at 11:00 AM (Thursday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity was essentially unchanged in May, and expectations for future activity grew modestly. Price growth increased on a month-over-month basis but cooled on a year-over-year basis, and raw materials prices continue to grow at a faster pace than finished ...


New Home Sales in April 2024 at annual rate of 634,000
Posted: May 23, 2024 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

New Home Sales
Sales of new single-family houses in April 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 634,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 4.7 percent (±12.0 percent)* below the revised March rate of 665,000 and is 7.7 percent ...


Chicago Fed National Activity Index suggests economic growth decreased in April 2024
Posted: May 23, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to –0.23 in April from –0.04 in March. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from March, and all four categories made negative contributions in April. The index's three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, increased to +0.01 in April from ...


Philadelphia Fed NonManufacturing Survey suggest activity declined in May 2024
Posted: May 23, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Firms responding to the May Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey indicated less widespread business activity than reported last month. The index for general activity at the firm level declined but remained positive. The index for sales/revenues increased, but the index for new orders turned negative. The firms continued to report an ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 8,000 to 215,000
Posted: May 23, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending May 18, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 215,000, a decrease of 8,000
from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 222,000 to 223,000. The
4-week moving average was 219,750, an increase of 1,750 from the previous week's revised average. The ...


Existing-Home Sales Decreased 1.9% in April 2024
Posted: May 22, 2024 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Existing-home sales receded in April, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. All four major U.S. regions posted month-over-month declines. Year-over-year, sales decreased in the Northeast, Midwest and South but increased in the West.

Total existing-home sales – completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – slid 1.9% from March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.14 million in April. Year-over-year, sales fell 1.9% (down from 4.22 million in April ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: May 22, 2024 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 1.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 17, 2024. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 1.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one ...


U.S. Leading Economic Index decreased by 0.6% in April 2024
Posted: May 17, 2024 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. decreased by 0.6 percent in April 2024 to 101.8 (2016=100), after decreasing by 0.3 percent in March. Over the six-month period between October 2023 and April 2024, the LEI contracted by 1.9 percent—a smaller decrease than its 3.5 percent decline over the previous ...


April 2024 Industrial Production unch%, Capacity Utilization moved down to 78.4%
Posted: May 16, 2024 at 09:15 AM (Thursday)

Industrial production was little changed in April. Manufacturing output decreased 0.3 percent; excluding motor vehicles and parts, manufacturing output edged down 0.1 percent. The index for mining fell 0.6 percent, and the index for utilities rose 2.8 percent. At 102.8 percent of its 2017 average, total industrial production in April was ...


U.S. Import Price Index rose 0.9% in April 2024
Posted: May 16, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

U.S. imports increased 0.9 percent in April, after advancing 0.6 percent in March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor
Statistics reported today. Higher fuel and nonfuel import prices contributed to the overall rise. Prices for
U.S. exports increased 0.5 percent in April following a 0.1-percent advance the ...


April 2024 Housing Starts Increased 5.7%, Permits down 3.0%
Posted: May 16, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Building Permits
Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,440,000. This is 3.0 percent below the revised March rate of 1,485,000 and is 2.0 percent below the April 2023 rate of 1,470,000. Single‐family authorizations in April were at a rate of 976,000; this is 0.8 ...


Philadelphia Fed Mfg Outlook Activity weakened in May 2024
Posted: May 16, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Manufacturing activity in the region weakened overall, according to the firms responding to the May Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey's indicators for current general activity, new orders, and shipments all declined, with the latter two turning negative. The employment index suggests declines in employment overall. Both ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 10,000 to 222,000
Posted: May 16, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending May 11, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 222,000, a decrease of 10,000
from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 231,000 to 232,000. The
4-week moving average was 217,750, an increase of 2,500 from the previous week's revised average. ...


Treasury International Capital Data for March 2024
Posted: May 15, 2024 at 04:00 PM (Wednesday)

The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for March 2024. The sum total in March of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a net TIC inflow of $102.1 billion. Of this, net foreign private inflows were $30.3 billion, and net ...


Business Inventories down 0.1% in March 2024
Posted: May 15, 2024 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

The combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for March, adjusted for seasonal and trading day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,858.0 billion, down 0.1 percent (±0.2 percent)* from February 2024 and was up 2.1 percent (±0.4 percent) from ...


NAHB Builder Confidence down 6 points to 45 in May 2024
Posted: May 15, 2024 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

With mortgage rates averaging above 7% for the past four weeks per data from Freddie Mac, builder sentiment posted its first decline since November 2023.

Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes was 45 in May, down six points from April, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. ...


Consumer Price Index increased 0.3% in April 2024, Ex Fd & Engy up 0.3%
Posted: May 15, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent in April on a seasonally adjusted basis, after rising 0.4 percent in March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.4 percent before ...


Real Average Hourly Earnings decreased 0.2% in April 2024
Posted: May 15, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

All employees

Real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased 0.2 percent from March to April, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from an increase of 0.2 percent in average hourly earnings combined with an increase of 0.3 ...


U.S. Retail Sales for April 2024 unch%, Ex-Auto up 0.2%
Posted: May 15, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for April 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $705.2 billion, virtually unchanged (±0.4 percent)* from the previous month, but up 3.0 percent (±0.5 percent) above April 2023. Total sales for the February 2024 ...


Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions continued to decline in May 2024
Posted: May 15, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Business activity continued to decline in New York State, according to firms responding to the May 2024 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index was little changed at -15.6. New orders declined significantly, while shipments held steady. Unfilled orders continued to decline. Delivery times shortened, ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: May 15, 2024 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 0.5 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 10, 2024. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 0.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one ...


Producer Price Index increased 0.5% in April 2024, ex Fd & Engy rose 0.3%
Posted: May 14, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.5 percent in April, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices declined 0.1 percent in March and advanced 0.6 percent in February. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 2.2 percent for the 12 months ended ...


NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increased to 89.7 in April 2024
Posted: May 14, 2024 at 07:00 AM (Tuesday)

NFIB’s Small Business Optimism Index rose by 1.2 points in April to 89.7, marking the first increase of this year but the 28th consecutive month below the 50-year average of 98. Twenty-two percent of owners reported that inflation was their single most important problem in their business, down three points from March but still the number ...


Philadelphia Fed Survey of Forecasters Predict Higher Near-Term Growth and Job Gains
Posted: May 10, 2024 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Forecasters Predict Higher Near-Term Growth and Job Gains
The near-term outlook for the U.S. economy looks better now than it did three months ago, according to 34 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The forecasters predict the economy will expand at an annual rate of 2.1 percent this quarter and 2.0 percent ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Preliminary May 2024 Results down to 67.4
Posted: May 10, 2024 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Consumer sentiment retreated about 13% this May following three consecutive months of very little change. This 10 index-point decline is statistically significant and brings sentiment to its lowest reading in about six months. This month’s trend in sentiment is characterized by a broad consensus across consumers, with decreases across age, ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase 22,000 to 231,000
Posted: May 9, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending May 4, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 231,000, an increase of 22,000
from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 208,000 to 209,000. The
4-week moving average was 215,000, an increase of 4,750 from the previous week's revised average. ...


CEO Confidence rose to 54 in Q2 2024
Posted: May 9, 2024 at 06:00 AM (Thursday)

The Conference Board Measure of CEO Confidence™ in collaboration with The Business Council rose to 54 in Q2 2024, up from 53 in the previous quarter. This marks the second consecutive quarter in which the Measure is above 50, indicating that CEOs are cautiously optimistic following two years of gloom. (A reading above 50 reflects more ...


Wholesale Inventories down 1.3% in March 2024
Posted: May 8, 2024 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

March 2024 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading day differences but not for price changes, were $662.8 billion, down 1.3 percent (±0.5 percent) from the revised February level, but were up 1.4 percent (±0.9 percent) from the revised March 2023 ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: May 8, 2024 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 2.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 3, 2024. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 2.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one ...


Consumer Credit Increased at an annual rate of 1.5% in March 2024
Posted: May 7, 2024 at 03:00 PM (Tuesday)

Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.2 percent during the first quarter. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 5.7 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2.2 percent. In March, consumer credit increased at an annual rate of ...


Employment Trends Index decreased in April 2024 to 111.25
Posted: May 6, 2024 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) decreased in April to 111.25, from a downwardly revised 112.16 in March. The Employment Trends Index is a leading composite index for employment. When the Index increases, employment is likely to grow as well, and vice versa. Turning points in the Index indicate that a change in the trend of ...


ISM Non-Manufacturing Index decrease to 49.4% in April 2024
Posted: May 3, 2024 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Economic activity in the services sector contracted in April for the first time since December 2022, ending a period of 15 consecutive months of growth, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Services ISM® Report On Business®. The Services PMI® registered 49.4 percent; it indicated sector expansion in 45 of the previous ...


April 2024 Employment rose by 175,000
Unemployment Rate increased to 3.9%

Posted: May 3, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 175,000 in April, and the unemployment rate changed little at 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in social assistance, and in transportation and warehousing.

This news release presents statistics from two monthly surveys. The household survey measures labor force status, including unemployment, by demographic characteristics. The establishment survey measures nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings by industry. For more ...


New orders for manufactured goods increased 1.6% in March 2024
Posted: May 2, 2024 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Summary
New orders for manufactured goods in March, up two consecutive months, increased $9.1 billion or 1.6 percent to $584.5 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 1.2 percent February increase. Shipments, also up two consecutive months, increased $1.5 billion or 0.3 percent to $583.3 billion. This followed a 1.4 ...


1Q2024 Productivity Growth increased 0.3%
Posted: May 2, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 0.3 percent in the first quarter of 2024, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, as output increased 1.3 percent and hours worked increased 1.0 percent. (All quarterly percent changes in this release are seasonally adjusted annual rates.) From the same quarter a year ago, ...


Goods and Services Deficit decreased in March 2024
Posted: May 2, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $69.4 billion in March, down $0.1 billion from $69.5 billion in February, revised.

Exports, Imports, and Balance ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase 1,000 to 208,000
Posted: May 2, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending April 27, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 208,000, unchanged from the
previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 207,000 to 208,000. The 4-week
moving average was 210,000, a decrease of 3,500 from the previous week's revised average. The ...



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