After four straight months of declines, consumer sentiment in August inched up 1.5 index points above July, according to the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.

The economic outlook over both the short term and long term reached their most favorable levels since April 2024, with a 10% surge in long-run economic expectations that was seen across age and income groups, said U-M economist Joanne Hsu, director of the surveys. ...

• The Chicago Business BarometerTM, produced with MNI progressed 0.8 points to 46.1 in August. The marginal move means it remains in contractionary territory for the ninth consecutive month, although is comfortably above the year-to-date average of 42.9.

• The marginal rise was due to three of the five subcomponents improving. The marginal upward movement was driven by New Orders, followed by Production and Supplier Deliveries. Whilst small reductions in Order Backlogs and Employment capped the upside move.
• In particular, ...

Personal income increased $75.1 billion (0.3 percent at a monthly rate) in July, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (tables 2 and 3). Disposable personal income (DPI), personal income less personal current taxes, increased $54.8 billion (0.3 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) ...

Pending home sales in July retreated 5.5%, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. All four U.S. regions posted monthly losses in transactions. Year-over-year, the Northeast rose while the Midwest, South and West registered declines.

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* – a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings – slipped to 70.2 in July, the lowest reading since the index began tracking in 2001. Year over year, pending transactions were down 8.5%. An index of 100 is equal to ...

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.0 percent in the second quarter of 2024 (table 1), according to the "second" estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 1.4 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.8 percent. The update primarily reflected an upward revision to consumer spending ...

In the week ending August 24, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 231,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 232,000 to 233,000. The 4-week moving average was 231,500, a decrease of 4,750 from the previous week's revised average. The ...

Mortgage applications increased 0.5 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending August 23, 2024. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 0.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. ...

Fifth District manufacturing activity slowed in August, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index edged down from −17 in July to −19 in August. Of its three component indexes, shipments rose from −21 to −15, new orders decreased from −23 to −26, and employment fell from −5 ...

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® rose in August to 103.3 (1985=100), from an upwardly revised 101.9 in July. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—improved to 134.4 from 133.1 in July. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for ...

S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) today released the June 2024 results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices. The leading measure of U.S. home prices reached a new all-time high with a decelerating trend for June 2024.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR ...

Texas factory activity exhibited little growth in August, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, inched up three points to 1.6, with the low reading signaling only slight growth in output ...

New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in July, up five of the last six months, increased $26.1 billion or 9.9 percent to $289.6 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 6.9 percent June decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.2 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 10.4 ...

New Home Sales
Sales of new single-family houses in July 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 739,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 10.6 percent (±16.5 percent)* above the revised June rate of 668,000 and is 5.6 percent ...

Tenth District manufacturing activity declined less this month than in July, while expectations for future activity remained positive. Finished product prices increased somewhat this month after staying flat in July, but raw materials prices continue to grow at a faster ...

Existing-home sales improved in July, breaking a streak of four consecutive monthly declines, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Three out of four major U.S. regions registered sales increases while the Midwest remained steady. Year-over-year, sales rose in the Northeast and West but retreated in the Midwest ...

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to –0.34 in July from –0.09 in June. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from June, and three categories made negative contributions in July. The index's three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, was unchanged at –0.06 ...

In the week ending August 17, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 232,000, an increase of
4,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 227,000 to
228,000. The 4-week moving average was 236,000, a decrease of 750 from the previous week's revised average. ...

Mortgage applications decreased 10.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending August 16, 2024. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 10.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week ...

Nonmanufacturing activity improved somewhat but remained weak, according to the firms responding to the August Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey. After negative readings last month, the indexes for general activity at the firm level and sales/revenues turned positive but are below their respective long-run averages, and the new orders ...

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. fell by 0.6 percent in July 2024 to 100.4 (2016=100), following a decline of 0.2 percent in June. Over the six-month period ending in July 2024, the LEI fell by 2.1 percent, a smaller rate of decline than its −3.1 percent over the six-month period between July 2023 and ...

Consumer sentiment was essentially unchanged for the fourth consecutive month, inching up 1.4 index points. With election developments dominating headlines this month, sentiment for Democrats climbed 6% in the wake of Harris replacing Biden as the Democratic nominee for president. For Republicans, sentiment moved in the opposite direction, ...

Building Permits
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,396,000. This is 4.0 percent below the revised June rate of 1,454,000 and is 7.0 percent below the July 2023 rate of 1,501,000. Single-family authorizations in July were at a rate of 938,000; this is 0.1 ...

The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for June 2024. The sum total in June of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a net TIC inflow of $107.5 billion. Of this, net foreign private inflows were $81.4 billion, and net ...

A lack of affordability and buyer hesitation stemming from elevated interest rates and high home prices contributed to a decline in builder sentiment in August.

Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes was 39 in August, down two points from a downwardly revised reading of 41 in July, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. This ...

The combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for June, adjusted for seasonal and trading day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,857.9 billion, down 0.1 percent (±0.2 percent)* from May 2024, but was up 2.2 percent (±0.3 percent) from ...

Industrial production fell 0.6 percent in July after increasing 0.3 percent in June. Early July shutdowns concentrated in the petrochemical and related industries due to Hurricane Beryl held down the growth of industrial production by an estimated 0.3 percentage point. Manufacturing output stepped down 0.3 percent as the index for motor ...

In the week ending August 10, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 227,000, a decrease of 7,000
from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 233,000 to 234,000. The
4-week moving average was 236,500, a decrease of 4,500 from the previous week's revised average. The ...

Business activity edged slightly lower in New York State, according to firms responding to the August 2024 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index was little changed at -4.7. New orders declined modestly, while shipments held steady. Delivery times continued to shorten, and supply availability was ...

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for July 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $709.7 billion, an increase of 1.0% (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and up 2.7 percent (±0.5 percent) from July 2023. Total sales for the May 2024 through July ...

Prices for U.S. imports ticked up 0.1 percent in July, after being unchanged the previous month, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Higher nonfuel and fuel prices each contributed to the July advance. U.S. export prices increased 0.7 percent in July following a 0.3-percent decline ...

Manufacturing activity in the region softened overall, according to the firms responding to the August Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey's indicators for current general activity, new orders, and shipments all declined, with the former turning negative. The employment index suggests declines in employment overall. Both ...

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis, after declining 0.1 percent in June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.9 percent before ...

All employees

Real average hourly earnings for all employees increased 0.1 percent from June to July, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from an increase of 0.2 percent in average hourly earnings combined with an increase of 0.2 ...

Mortgage applications increased 16.8 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending August 9, 2024. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 16.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. ...

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.1 percent in July, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices rose 0.2 percent in June and were unchanged in May. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand advanced 2.2 percent for the 12 months ended ...

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose 2.2 points in July to 93.7, the highest reading since February 2022. However, this is the 31st consecutive month below the 50-year average of 98. Inflation remains the top issue among small business owners, with 25% reporting it as their single most important problem in operating their business, up ...

Sales
June 2024 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading day differences, but not for price changes, were $661.5 billion, down 0.6 percent (±0.4 percent) from the revised May level, but were up 2.4 percent (±0.7 percent) from the revised June 2023 ...

In the week ending August 3, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 233,000, a decrease of 17,000
from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 249,000 to 250,000. The
4-week moving average was 240,750, an increase of 2,500 from the previous week's revised average. ...

The Conference Board Measure of CEO Confidence™ in collaboration with The Business Council fell to 52 in Q3 2024, down from 54 in the previous quarter. While this was the lowest reading in 2024, the Measure remained above 50, indicating that CEOs remain moderately optimistic (A reading above 50 reflects more positive than negative responses). ...

Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.4 percent during the second quarter. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 1.2 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2.9 percent. In June, consumer credit increased at an annual rate of ...

Mortgage applications increased 6.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending August 2, 2024. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 6.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. ...

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $73.1 billion in June, down $1.9 billion from $75.0 billion in May, revised.

Exports, Imports, and Balance
June exports were $265.9 billion, $3.9 billion more than May exports. June imports were $339.0 billion, $2.0 billion more than May imports. ...

Economic activity in the services sector expanded in July, a trend that has been interrupted only three times — though twice in the last four months — since early in the coronavirus pandemic, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Services ISM® Report On Business®. The Services PMI® registered 51.4 percent, ...

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) decreased in July to 109.61, from an upwardly revised 110.58 in June. The Employment Trends Index is a leading composite index for payroll employment. When the Index increases, employment is likely to grow as well, and vice versa. Turning points in the Index indicate that a change in the trend ...

Summary
New orders for manufactured goods in June, down two consecutive months, decreased $19.1 billion or 3.3 percent to $564.2 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 0.5 percent May decrease. Shipments, up four of the last five months, increased $3.1 billion or 0.5 percent to $588.0 billion. This followed a 0.7 ...

The unemployment rate rose to 4.3 percent in July, and nonfarm payroll employment edged up by 114,000, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in health care, in construction, and in transportation and warehousing, while information ...

Total Construction
Construction spending during June 2024 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,148.4 billion, 0.3 percent (±1.0 percent)* below the revised May estimate of $2,154.8 billion. The June figure is 6.2 percent (±1.6 percent) above the June 2023 estimate of $2,023.0 billion. During the first six months of this ...

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in July for the fourth consecutive month and the 20th time in the last 21 months, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®. The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® ...

In the week ending July 27, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 249,000, an increase of 14,000
from the previous week's unrevised level of 235,000. The 4 -week moving average was 238,000, an increase of 2,500
from the previous week's unrevised average ...

U.S.-based employers announced 25,885 job cuts in July, a 47% decrease from the 48,786 cuts announced one month prior. It is up 9% from the 23,697 cuts announced in the same month in 2023, according to a report released Thursday from global outplacement and business and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. July's total ...