- Employment Bounces Back Strongly
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Production, New Orders and Backlogs Expand at Slower Rate

The Chicago Business Barometer remained broadly unchanged at 59.8 in February compared with 59.6 in January, as a double-digit gain in Employment offset declines in New Orders, Production and Order Backlogs. ...

Pending home sales were essentially unchanged in January, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Monthly gains in the South and Northeast were offset by declines in the West and Midwest.

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, edged up 0.1 percent to 95.0 in January from an upwardly revised 94.9 in December, but is 9.0 percent below January 2013 when it was 104.4. ...

Despite the harsh winter, consumer confidence has remained essentially unchanged since December. The weather has had the greatest impact on those over age 65, largely due to the higher cost of utilities. It had the least net impact on those under age 35, as the winter weather was offset by gains in income and employment. While upper income ...

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 2.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013 (that is, from the third quarter to the fourth quarter), according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the ...

Growth in Tenth District manufacturing activity was slightly positive in February, and although producers’ expectations moderated somewhat they remained at solid levels overall. Several contacts continued to cite delays and slowdowns caused by severe winter weather issues. Price indexes were mostly stable or ...

In the week ending February 22, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 348,000, an increase of 14,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 334,000. The 4-week moving average was 338,250, unchanged from the previous week's revised average.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.3 percent for the week ending February 15, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending February 15 was 2,964,000, an ...

New orders for manufactured durable goods in January decreased $2.2 billion or 1.0 percent to $225.0 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This decrease, down three of the last four months, followed a 5.3 percent December decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 1.1 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased ...

Sales of new single-family houses in January 2014 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 468,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 9.6 percent (±17.9%)* above the revised December rate of 427,000 and is 2.2 percent (±20.2%)* above the ...

Mortgage applications decreased 8.5 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 21, 2014.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 8.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 7 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 11 ...

Manufacturing in the Fifth District slowed, according to the most recent survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. Shipments and the volume of new orders declined. Hiring flattened, while the average workweek shortened and average wage growth rose. The backlog of orders declined and vendor lead time remained flat in February, as ...

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had increased in January, fell moderately in February. The Index now stands at 78.1 (1985=100), down from 79.4 in January. The decline was driven by the Expectations Index, which dropped to 75.7 from 80.8. The Present Situation Index, by contrast, climbed from 77.3 ...

Data through December 2013, released today by S&P Dow Jones Indices for its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, showed that National home prices closed the year of 2013 up 11.3%. This represents a slight improvement over last quarter’s annual rate of 11.2%. In the fourth quarter of 2013, the National ...

U.S. chain-store sales rose 1.4 percent year on year for the week that ended on February 22, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) and Goldman Sachs. However, on a week-to-week basis, comparable-store sales fell 0.6 percent as consumers lacked motivation to spend beyond what ...

Texas factory activity increased for the tenth month in a row in February, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rose from 7.1 to 10.8, indicating output grew at a slightly stronger pace than ...

Led by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to –0.39 in January from –0.03 in December. Two of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index decreased from December, and two of the four categories made negative contributions to the
index ...

Existing-home sales fell in January to the lowest level in a year-and-a-half, but ongoing inventory shortages continue to lift prices in much of the U.S., according to the National Association of Realtors®.

Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, dropped 5.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.62 million in January from 4.87 million in December, and are also 5.1 percent ...

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1 percent in January on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.6 percent before seasonal adjustment.

Increases in the indexes for household energy accounted for most of the all items increase. The electricity index posted its largest increase since March 2010, and the indexes for natural gas and fuel oil also rose sharply. These increases more than offset a decline in the ...

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.3 percent in January to 99.5 (2004 = 100), following no change in December, and a 0.9 percent increase in November.

The U.S. Leading Economic Index continues to fluctuate on a monthly basis, but the six-month average growth rate has been relatively stable in recent months, which suggests that the economy will remain resilient in the first half of 2014 and underlying economic conditions ...

For the week ending February 8 2014, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer decreased slightly by 0.1 percent following a 0.2 percent decline in the prior week. The decline of barometer this week was due to modest negative contributions by both consumption and production. MBA’s purchase index dropped for the second consecutive week to the ...

Manufacturing activity was reduced in February, according to firms responding to this month’s Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s broadest indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments suggest moderate declines this month, but comments suggested that much of the weakness was attributable to the severe winter weather that ...

In the week ending February 15, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 336,000, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week's unrevised figure of 339,000. The 4-week moving average was 338,500, an increase of 1,750 from the previous week's unrevised average ...

Real average hourly earnings for all employees rose 0.1 percent from December to January, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This increase stems from a 0.2 percent increase in average hourly earnings being partially offset by a 0.1 percent increase in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban ...

BUILDING PERMITS
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 937,000. This is 5.4 percent (±0.7%) below the revised December rate of 991,000, but is 2.4 percent (±1.0%) above the January 2013 estimate of 915,000. Single-family authorizations in January were at a rate ...

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.2 percent in January, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This advance followed a 0.1 percent rise in December and no change in November. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 1.2 percent for the 12 months ended in January, the ...

U.S. chain-store sales rose 2.1 percent year on year for the week that ended on February 15 and included Valentine's Day, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) and Goldman Sachs. ICSC concluded that valentines gift spending helped boost the week-to-week comparable-store sales results by ...

Mortgage applications decreased 4.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 14, 2014.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 4.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 3 ...

Unusually severe weather conditions across much of the nation along with continued concerns over the cost and availability of labor and lots resulted in builder confidence in the market for newly-built, single-family homes to post a 10-point drop to 46 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), ...

The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for December 2013. The sum total in December of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a monthly net TIC outflow of $119.6 billion. Of this, net foreign private outflows were $119.9 ...

The February 2014 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that business conditions improved marginally for New York manufacturers. The general business conditions index fell eight points, but remained positive at 4.5. The new orders index fell to about zero, indicating that orders were flat, and the shipments index declined thirteen points ...

The outlook for growth in the U.S. economy over the next three years looks stronger than that of three months ago, according to 45 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. On an annual-average over annual-average basis, the forecasters predict faster real GDP growth in 2014, 2015, and 2016. The forecasters see real ...

Industrial production decreased 0.3 percent in January after having risen 0.3 percent in December. In January, manufacturing output fell 0.8 percent, partly because of the severe weather that curtailed production in some regions of the country. Additionally, manufacturing production is now reported to have been lower in the fourth quarter; ...

U.S. import prices rose for the second consecutive month in January advancing 0.1 percent, after a 0.2 percent increase in December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. In January, higher nonfuel prices more than offset declining fuel prices. U.S. export prices also rose in January, increasing 0.2 percent following a 0.4 ...

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that the combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for December, adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,317.7 billion, up 0.1 percent (±0.2) from November 2013, and were up 3.8 percent (±0.4) from ...

For the week ending February 1 2014, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer was slightly down by 0.2 percent following a pickup of 0.5 percent in the prior week. Modest rise and fall across the board in the components were seen this week. Auto production was the only major fall, which decreased by 8.7 percent, and dragged down the barometer. ...

In the week ending February 8, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 339,000, an increase of 8,000 from the previous week's unrevised figure of 331,000. The 4-week moving average was 336,750, an increase of 3,500 from the previous week's revised average ...

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for January, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $427.8 billion, a decrease of 0.4 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month, but 2.6 percent (±0.9%) above January 2013. Total ...

Mortgage applications decreased 2.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 7, 2014.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 2.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 0.3 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 0.2 ...

There were 4.0 million job openings on the last business day of December, little changed from November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The hires rate (3.2 percent) and separations rate (3.2 percent) were little changed in December. This release includes estimates of the number and rate of job openings, hires, and ...

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that December 2013 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading-day differences but not for price changes, were $442.4 billion, up 0.5 percent (+/-0.7%)* from the revised November level and were up 5.8 percent ...

U.S. chain-store sales rose 2.3 percent year on year for the week that ended on February 8, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) and Goldman Sachs. However, weekly comparable-store sales slipped 0.3 percent.

“February came in like a lion with multiple winter storms affecting various parts of the country last week,” said Michael Niemira, ICSC's vice president of research and chief economist. “But despite that constraint, the ICSC‐GS consumer tracking survey found considerable ...

The Small Business Optimism Index increased by 0.2 points to 94.1. Only three of the Index components improved, two were unchanged, and five were lower indicating that the small business half of the economy was still adding little to growth beyond that needed to support population growth. Technically, January marks the third monthly increases in ...

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) increased in January. The index now stands at 116.61, up from 115.62 (downwardly revised) in December. This represents a 6.0 percent gain in the ETI compared to a year ago.

Despite weak job reports in December and January, the Employment Trends Index is not signaling a slowdown in employment growth. We expect solid job growth and rapid declines in the unemployment rate to continue in the coming months. ...

Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6-1/2 percent during the fourth quarter. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 4-1/2 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased 7-1/4 percent. In December, consumer credit increased at an annual rate of ...

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 113,000 in January, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 6.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment grew in construction, manufacturing, wholesale trade, and mining.

Both the number of unemployed persons, at 10.2 million, and the unemployment rate, at 6.6 percent, changed little in January. Since October, the jobless rate has decreased by 0.6 percentage point. ...

For the week ending January 25 2014, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer picked up by 0.5 percent following declines for four consecutive weeks. This week’s barometer was mainly driven by production side; electric output bounced back by 9.8 percent following a 9.4 percent drop in the previous week and steel production increased modestly ...

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased at a 3.2 percent annual rate during the fourth quarter of 2013, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The increase in productivity reflects increases of 4.9 percent in output and 1.7 percent in hours worked. (All quarterly percent changes in this release are seasonally ...

The Nation’s international trade deficit in goods and services increased to $38.7 billion in December from $34.6 billion in November (revised), as exports decreased and imports increased.

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that total December exports of $191.3 billion and imports of $230.0 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $38.7 billion, up from $34.6 billion ...

In the week ending February 1, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 331,000, a decrease of 20,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 351,000. The 4-week moving average was 334,000, an increase of 250 from the previous week's revised average ...

After falling to a 13-year low in December, monthly job cuts surged nearly 50 percent to kick off 2014, as U.S.-based employers announced plans to reduce their payrolls by 45,107 in January, according to the latest report on monthly job cuts released Thursday by global outplacement consultancy Challenger, Gray & ...

Mortgage applications increased 0.4 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 31, 2014.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 0.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 14 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 3 ...