The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.1 percent in July to 109.8, following a 0.3 percent decline in June, and a 0.5 percent increase in May.

The indicators point to a slow expansion through the end of the year. With inventory rebuilding moderating, the industrial core of the economy has moved to a slower pace. There appears to be no change in the pace of the service sector. Combined, the result is a weak economy with little forward momentum. However, the good news is that the data do not point to a recession.

The economy should continue expanding, albeit slowly. The LEI is growing at its slowest pace since mid-2009 and it has been essentially flat since March. However, the index is still well above pre-recession levels and the CEI remains on a rising trend that began in late 2009. All four coincident indicators have risen over the last six months, with July’s gain in industrial production offsetting the recent weakness in employment.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.2 percent in July to 101.4, following a 0.1 percent decline in June, and a 0.4 percent increase in May. The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) increased 0.4 percent in July to 107.9, following a 0.1 percent increase in June, and a 0.1 percent decline in May.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. declined 0.2 percent in June to 109.8, following a 0.5 percent increase in May, and a 0.1 percent decline in April.

The indicators point to slower growth through the fall. Two trends will have a direct impact on the pace of economic expansion. First, improvement in the industrial core of the economy will moderate as inventory rebuilding slows. Second, improvement in the service sector has been relatively slow, with little indication that it will pick up momentum.

The LEI decreased in two of the last three months, but its level is still about 4.5 percent above its previous peak before the recession began. Moreover, the gains among the LEI components have been widespread, with the exception of housing permits and stock prices, pointing to an expanding economy, but at a slower pace in the second half of the year.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. was unchanged in June, following a 0.5 percent increase in May, and a 0.3 percent increase in April. The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) increased 0.1 percent in June to 107.6, following a 0.1 percent decline in May, and a 0.3 percent decline in April.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the United States increased 0.4 percent in May, following no change in April, and a 1.4 percent rise in March.

The index points to continued, though slower, U.S. growth for the rest of this year. Public debt and deficits weigh heavily on growth prospects on both sides of the Atlantic. We project a serious slowdown in European growth in 2011, which could further weaken the U.S. outlook.

The LEI for the United States has been rising since April 2009, and though its growth rate has slowed in 2010, it is well above its most recent peak in December 2006. Correspondingly, current economic conditions, as measured by The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the United States, have been improving steadily since November 2009, thanks to gains in payroll employment and industrial production.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the United States rose 0.4 percent in May, following a 0.4 percent increase in April, and a 0.3 percent increase in March. The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the United States decreased 0.1 percent in May, following no change in April, and a 0.2 percent decrease in March.

The leading economic index is 12.0 percent above its most recent trough of March 2009 and it is 4.6 percent above its most recent peak in December 2006. The coincident economic index is 2.0 percent above its most recent trough in June 2009, but it is still 5.4 percent below its most recent peak of December 2007.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®(LEI) for the U.S. declined 0.1 percent in April, following a 1.3 percent gain in March, and a 0.4 percent rise in February.

These latest results suggest a recovery that will continue through the summer, although it could lose a little steam. The U.S. LEI declined slightly for the first time in more than a year, and its six-month growth rate has moderated since December. Meanwhile, the coincident index, a measure of current economic activity, has been improving since mid-2009.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. rose 0.3 percent in April, following a 0.1 percent increase in March, and a 0.1 percent increase in February. The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) increased 0.1 percent in April, following a 0.1 percent increase in March, and a 0.2 percent rise in February.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 1.4 percent in March, following a 0.4 percent gain in February, and a 0.6 percent rise in January. The U.S. LEI is now at its highest level.

The U.S. LEI has risen steadily for a year, and its six-month growth rate has remained fairly stable in recent months — led by improvements in financial and labor market indicators. Payroll employment made its first substantial contribution to the coincident economic index, suggesting a recovery that is beginning to gain traction.

The indicators point to a slow recovery that should continue over the next few months. The leading, coincident and lagging series are rising. Strength of demand remains the big question going forward. Improvement in employment and income will be the key factors in whether consumers push the recovery on a stronger path.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. rose 0.1 percent in March, following a 0.1 percent increase in February, and no change in January. The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) increased 0.2 percent in March, following a 0.1 percent increase in February, and a 0.3 percent decline in January.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.1 percent in February, following a 0.3 percent gain in January, and a 1.2 percent rise in December.

The LEI for the U.S. has risen rapidly for almost a year now and it has reached its highest level. But, the sharp pick up in the LEI appears to be stabilizing. As the economy moves from recovery into early phases of an expansion, the leading economic index points to moderately improving economic conditions in the near term. Correspondingly, the coincident economic index has been rising since July 2009, albeit slightly because of continued weakness in employment.

The indicators point to a slow recovery this summer. Going forward, the big question remains the strength of demand. Without increased consumer demand, job growth will likely be minimal over the next few months.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. rose 0.1 percent in February, following no change in January, and a 0.1 percent increase in December. The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) increased 0.3 percent in February, following a 0.2 percent decline in January, and a 0.4 percent decline in December.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.3 percent in January, following a 1.2 percent gain in December, and a 1.1 percent rise in November.

This month's release incorporates benchmark revisions that resulted from revisions in the underlying data for manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials and manufacturers' new orders for non-defense capital goods. As a result, the standardization factors of these two components and the history of the leading economic index were recomputed. The impact of these revisions on the leading economic index is minimal, but the revised index will no longer be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision. For further information please contact indicators@conference-board.org.

The U.S. LEI has risen steadily for nearly a year, led by an improvement in financial markets and a manufacturing upturn. Consumer expectations and housing permits have also contributed to these gains over this period, but to a lesser extent — especially in recent months. Current economic conditions, as measured by The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI), have also improved modestly since July 2009, helped by strengthening industrial production, despite continued weakness in employment.

The cumulative change in the U.S. LEI over the past six months has been a strong 9.8 percent, annualized. This signals continued economic recovery at least through the spring.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. rose 0.2 percent in January, following no change in December, and a 0.3 percent increase in November. The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) declined 0.1 percent in January, following a 0.3 percent decline in December, and a 0.7 percent decline in November.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index™ (LEI) for the U.S. increased 1.1 percent in December, following a 1.0 percent gain in November, and a 0.3 percent rise in October.

The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. increased sharply in December, and has risen steadily for nine consecutive months. The six-month growth rate has picked up slightly to 5.2 percent (about a 10.8 percent annual rate) in the period through December, substantially higher than earlier in the year. In addition, the strengths among the leading indicators have remained very widespread in recent months.

The indicators point to an economy in early recovery. The coincident economic index shows slow expansion of economic activity through December. The leading economic index suggests that the pace of improvement could pick up this spring.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index™ (CEI) for the U.S. rose 0.1 percent in December, following a 0.1 percent increase in both November and October. The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index™ (LAG) declined 0.2 percent in December, following a 0.5 percent decline in November, and a 0.2 percent decline in October.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index™ (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.9 percent in November, following a 0.3 percent gain in October, and a 1.2 percent rise in September.

The Conference Board LEI has been on an uptrend for more than half a year and it is now slightly higher than its latest peak in July 2007. Improving financial conditions, labor market indicators, and housing permits have helped the LEI continue its gains in November. However, its six-month growth rate has slowed somewhat in recent months.

The indicators point to a bright new year. The U.S. LEI increased for the eighth consecutive month. Looking ahead, we can expect a slowly improving economy through 2010. The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index™ (CEI) for the U.S. also increased in November. Employment largely held steady, making this the first month since December 2007 that it did not make a negative contribution to the index.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index™ (CEI) for the U.S.rose 0.2 percent in November, following no change in October, and a 0.1 percent decline in September. The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index™ (LAG) declined 0.4 percent in November, following a 0.2 percent decline in October, and a 0.5 percent decline in September.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index™ (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.3 percent in October, following a 1.0 percent gain in September, and a 0.4 percent rise in August.

After half a year of consecutive increases, the month-to-month growth of the LEI is stabilizing and the gains continue to be broad-based. Meanwhile, the coincident economic index has been essentially flat since June, after declining since November 2007. The composite indexes suggest the recovery is unfolding and economic activity should continue improving in the near term.

The data indicates that economic recovery is finally setting in. We can expect slow growth through the first half of 2010. The pace of growth, however, will depend critically on how much demand picks up, and how soon.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index™ (CEI) for the U.S. was unchanged in October, following a 0.1 percent decline in September, and a 0.1 percent increase in August. The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index™ (LAG) declined 0.2 percent in October, following a 0.5 percent decline in September, and a 0.4 percent decline in August.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index™ (LEI) for the U.S. increased 1.0 percent in September, following a 0.4 percent gain in August, and a 1.0 percent rise in July.

With the sixth consecutive increase, the LEI's six-month growth rate has improved to its highest pace since 1983. Except for average workweek and building permits, all the leading indicators contributed positively to the index this month. At the same time, the contraction in the coincident economic index has halted in recent months, but the continued downtrend in employment is keeping this index of current economic conditions from rising faster.

The LEI has risen for six consecutive months and the coincident economic index has increased in two of the last three months. These numbers strongly suggest that a recovery is developing. However, the intensity of that recovery will depend on how much, and how soon, demand picks up.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index™ (CEI) for the U.S. was unchanged in September, following a 0.1 percent increase in both August and July. The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index™ (LAG) declined 0.3 percent in September, following a 0.2 percent decline in August, and a 0.6 percent decline in July.

The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. increased 0.6 percent in August, following a 0.9 percent gain in July, and a 0.8 percent rise in June. Since reaching a peak in July 2007, the LEI fell for twenty months – the longest downtrend since the mid 1970s – but it has been rising since April and its gains have become very widespread. The six-month growth rate of the LEI continues to accelerate. At the same time, the downtrend in the coincident economic index, measuring current economic activity, seems to be stabilizing, with the index flat so far this quarter.

The LEI has risen for five consecutive months and the coincident economic index has stopped falling. Taken together, this suggests that the recession is bottoming out. These numbers are consistent with the view that after a very severe downturn, a recovery is very near. But, the intensity and pattern of that recovery is more uncertain.

The Conference Board CEI for the U.S. was unchanged in August, following a 0.1 percent increase in July, and a 0.4 percent decline in June. The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index™ (LAG) declined 0.1 percent in August, following a 0.5 percent decline in July, and a 0.9 percent decline in June.

The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. rose again in July, its fourth consecutive increase. The six-month change in the index has risen to 3.0 percent (a 6.2 percent annual rate) in the period through July, up substantially from -2.8 percent (a -5.4 percent annual rate) for the previous six months, and the strengths among the leading indicators have grown more widespread in recent months. The interest rate spread, initial unemployment claims and the average workweek made large positive contributions to the index this month, more than offsetting the negative contributions from consumer expectations, real money supply, and building permits.

The Conference Board CEI for the U.S. was unchanged in July, after decreasing for the past consecutive eight months. Index levels were revised slightly lower in recent months as a result of downward revisions to personal income. Between January and July 2009, the index fell 2.7 percent (a -5.4 percent annual rate), slower than the decline of 3.5 percent (a -6.8 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. In July, the lagging economic index for the U.S. fell again, and with the coincident economic index remaining unchanged, the coincident-to-lagging ratio increased further. Meanwhile, real GDP fell at a 1.0 percent annual rate in the second quarter, following a contraction of 6.4 percent annual rate for the first quarter of the year.

After having fallen steadily since reaching a peak in July 2007, The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. has increased sharply in the last four months, amid widespread strength among its components. As a result, the six-month growth rate in the index has accelerated to its highest rate since the middle of 2004. Meanwhile, the decline in The Conference Board CEI for the U.S. has gradually moderated in recent months. All in all, the behavior of the composite indexes suggests that the recession is bottoming out and that economic activity will likely begin to recover soon.

The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. increased for the third consecutive month in June. Most of the components contributed positively to the index this month except real money supply* and manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods*. The six-month change in the index has risen to 2.0 percent (a 4.1 percent annual rate) in the period through June, up substantially from - 3.1 percent (a –6.2 percent annual rate) for the previous six months, and the strengths among the leading indicators have remained balanced with the weaknesses in recent months.

The Conference Board CEI for the U.S. continued to decrease in June, amid further contractions in employment and industrial production. Between December 2008 and June 2009, the index fell 3.0 percent (a –5.9 percent annual rate), slightly faster than the decline of 2.8 percent (a –5.6 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. In June, the lagging economic index for the U.S. fell more than the coincident economic index, and the coincident-to-lagging ratio increased, as a result. Meanwhile, real GDP fell at a 5.5 percent annual rate in the first quarter of 2009, following a contraction of 6.3 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2008.

The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. has rien for three consecutive months now, after having fallen steadily since reaching a peak in July 2007. With these large and widespread gains, its six month growth has picked up to the highest rate since the first quarter of 2006. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for the U.S., measuring current economic activity, remains on a downtrend, but the pace of its decline has moderated somewhat in recent months. All in all, the behavior of the composite indexes suggest that the recession will continue to ease and that the economy may begin to recover in the near term.

The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. increased sharply for the second consecutive month in May. In addition, the strengths among its components continued to exceed the weaknesses this month. Vendor performance, the interest rate spread, real money supply, stock prices, consumer expectations, and building permits contributed positively to the index, more than offsetting the negative contributions from weekly hours and initial unemployment claims. The index rose 1.2 percent (a 2.4 percent annual rate) between November 2008 and May 2009, the first time the index has increased over a six-month period since July 2007, and the strengths among the leading indicators have become balanced with the weaknesses during this period.

The Conference Board CEI for the U.S. continued to decrease in May, amid further declines in industrial production and employment. The six-month change in the index stands at -3.3 percent (a -6.4 percent annual rate) in the period through May, down from -2.3 percent (a -4.5 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. In May, the lagging economic index for the U.S. fell by the same amount as the coincident economic index, and the coincident-to-lagging ratio remained unchanged, as a result. Meanwhile, real GDP fell at a 5.7 percent annual rate in the first quarter of the year, following a contraction of 6.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008.

The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. , which had been on a general downtrend since reaching a peak in July 2007, has risen sharply in the past two months amid widespread strengths among its components. With these large and extensive increases, the six-month change in the index has become positive for the first time in two years. The Conference Board CEI for the U.S., a measure of current economic activity, remains on a decreasing trend but its pace of decline has stabilized in recent months. All in all, the behavior of the composite indexes continues to suggest that the recession that began in December 2007 will likely ease in the near term.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index™ (LEI) for the U.S. increased 1.0 percent, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index™ (CEI) decreased 0.2 percent and The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index™ (LAG) decreased 0.5 percent in April.

The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. rose sharply in April, the first increase in seven months, and the strengths among its components exceeded the weaknesses for the first time in one and a half years. Stock prices, the interest rate spread, consumer expectations, initial unemployment claims, the average workweek, and supplier deliveries all contributed positively to the index this month, more than offsetting the negative contributions from real money supply and building permits. The six-month change in the index has risen to -0.6 percent (a -1.2 percent annual rate) in the period through April 2009, up from -2.4 percent (a -4.8 percent annual rate) from April to October 2008. However, the weaknesses among the components have remained widespread over the past six-month period.

The Conference Board CEI for the U.S. fell again in April, driven by continued declines in employment and industrial production. The index decreased 3.5 percent (about a -6.9 percent annual rate) between October 2008 and April 2009, faster than the decline of 1.8 percent (a -3.5 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. In April, the lagging economic index for the U.S. fell more than the coincident economic index, and the coincident-to-lagging ratio rose, as a result. Meanwhile, real GDP contracted at a 6.1 percent annual rate in the first quarter of 2009, following a decline of 6.3 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2008.

The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. has been generally falling since the middle of 2007, but the pace of its decline has slowed substantially in recent months. With this month's sharp and widespread increase, the six-month decline in the index is at its slowest since the fourth quarter of 2007. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for the U.S. continues to be on a downward trend that began in late 2007, and its decrease in recent months remains sharp. Taken together, the behavior of the composite economic indexes suggests that the contraction in economic activity will continue in the near term, but will likely become less severe in upcoming months.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index™ (LEI) for the U.S. decreased 0.3 percent, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index™ (CEI) decreased 0.4 percent and The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index™ (LAG) decreased 0.4 percent in March.

The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. declined again in March, and the index has not risen in the past nine months. Building permits, stock prices, and the index of supplier deliveries made large negative contributions to the index this month, more than offsetting continued positive contributions from real money supply and the yield spread. In the six months through March, the index fell 2.5 percent (about a -4.9 percent annual rate), faster than the decrease of 1.4 percent (a -2.7 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. In addition, the weaknesses among the leading indicators have remained widespread in recent months.

The Conference Board CEI for the U.S. continued falling in March, driven by further declines in employment and industrial production. In the six months through March, the index decreased 3.0 percent (about a -5.8 percent annual rate), faster than the decline of 2.0 percent (a -3.9 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. In March, the lagging economic index for the U.S. fell by the same amount as the coincident economic index, and as a result, the coincident to lagging ratio remained unchanged. Meanwhile, real GDP contracted at an average annual rate of 3.5 percent in the second half of 2008 (including a decline of 6.3 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter).

The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. remains on a general downtrend that began in July 2007, with widespread weaknesses among its components. However, its rate of decline has moderated somewhat this year. The Conference Board CEI for the U.S. has been on a declining trend since November 2007, although it has also decreased at a modestly slower pace in recent months. All in all, the behavior of the composite economic indexes suggests that the economic recession that started in December 2007 will continue in the near term, but that the contraction in activity could become less severe in upcoming months.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index™ (LEI) for the U.S. decreased 0.4 percent, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index™ (CEI) decreased 0.4 percent and The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index™ (LAG) decreased 0.4 percent in February.

The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. declined in February, following a slight increase in January. The monthly increase for December was revised to a small decline, while January's monthly increase was revised lower, due mainly to data revisions in manufacturers' new orders and real money supply. Between August 2008 and February 2009, the index fell 2.1 percent (a -4.1 percent annual rate), faster than the decline of 1.6 percent (a -3.1 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. In addition, the weaknesses among the leading indicators have remained widespread in recent months.

The Conference Board CEI for the U.S. fell again in February, driven by continued declines in employment and industrial production. Between August 2008 and February 2009, this index of current economic activity dropped 3.1 percent (a -6.1 percent annual rate), a much larger fall than the decrease of 0.9 percent (a -1.9 percent annual rate) for the previous six months, and the weaknesses among its components have remained widespread in recent months. The Conference Board LAG for the U.S. declined by the same amount as the coincident economic index this month, and as a result, the coincident to lagging ratio was unchanged. Meanwhile, real GDP fell at a 6.2 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2008 (following a decline of 0.5 percent annual rate in the third quarter), the largest quarterly contraction since 1982.

Amid widespread deterioration among its components, The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. continued the general downward trend that began in July 2007. But, its rate of decline has moderated slightly in recent months. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for the U.S. remains on a downtrend that began in November 2007, with the decline in the index having accelerated in recent months. The six-month decline in the CEI is the largest since 1975. Taken together, the behavior of the composite economic indexes suggests that the economic recession that began in December 2007 will continue in the near term.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index™ (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.4 percent, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index™ (CEI) decreased 0.5 percent and The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index™ (LAG) decreased 0.1 percent in January.

The LEI increased for the second consecutive month in January, but November and December values were revised down as new data for manufacturers' new orders became available. Between July 2008 and January 2009, the LEI decreased 1.9 percent (a -3.7 percent annual rate), faster than the decline of 1.1 percent (a -2.1 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. In addition, the weaknesses among the leading indicators have remained widespread in recent months.

The CEI fell sharply again in January, driven by continued large declines in industrial production and employment. The decline in the CEI has continued to accelerate — to 2.7 percent (a -5.4 percent annual rate) in the six-month period through January, from the decrease of 0.7 percent (a -1.5 percent annual rate) for the previous six months (January to July 2008), and the weaknesses among its components have remained widespread in recent months. The Lagging Economic Index (LAG) fell for two consecutive months but the CEI fell more, and as a result, the coincident-to-lagging ratio (a leading indicator) continued to decrease. Meanwhile, real GDP contracted at a 3.8 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2008, following a decline of 0.5 percent (annual rate) in the third quarter.

Although the LEI has risen during the past two months, it is too soon to say the contraction in the LEI that began in July 2007 is coming to an end. The LEI has continued to decline over a six-month period in the second half of 2008, with continued widespread weakness among its components. The primary sources of strength in the LEI in recent months have been the consistent and large contributions from inflation-adjusted money supply and the interest rate spread, and consumer expectations have only provided a weak positive contribution. At the same time, the CEI remains on a downtrend that began in November 2007, and the decline in the index has accelerated in recent months. All in all, the recent behavior of the composite economic indexes suggests that the economy will continue to be in recession in the near term.

The U.S. LEI increased 0.3 percent, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) decreased 0.5 percent and The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index (LAG) decreased 0.4 percent in December.

The LEI rose modestly in December, mainly due to the continued and very large positive contribution from real money supply. The yield spread also contributed positively to the index, helping offset the continued declines in building permits, the average workweek, supplier deliveries, and initial unemployment claims. Since June 2008, the LEI has fallen 2.5 percent (a -5.0 percent annual rate), faster than the 0.9 percent decline (a -1.7 percent annual rate) during the previous six months through June 2008. In addition, the weaknesses among the leading economic indicators have remained widespread.

The CEI fell sharply in December, amid a further contraction in industrial production and employment. The six-month change in the CEI has continued to decline — to -2.2 percent (a -4.3 percent annual rate) in the period through December, down significantly from -0.7 percent (a -1.3 percent annual rate) from December 2007 to June 2008, and the weaknesses among its components have remained widespread in recent months. The lagging economic index (LAG) decreased less than the CEI this month, and as a result, the coincident-to-lagging ratio fell again. Meanwhile, real GDP contracted at a 0.5 percent annual rate in the third quarter of 2008, down from a 1.8 percent average annual rate of increase for the previous two quarters.

Despite December's modest increase in the LEI, it is about 5.0 percent lower than its most recent peak in July 2007 as a result of widespread declines among its components. And, it would have been weaker without the very large expansion in inflation-adjusted money supply in the last four months. The CEI has been deteriorating since its most recent peak in November 2007, and the decrease in this index over the past six months is the largest since 1980. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite economic indexes suggests that the recession that began in December 2007 will continue in the near term.

The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index decreased 0.4 percent, the coincident index decreased 0.3 percent and the lagging index increased 0.1 percent in November.

The leading index continued to fall in November, due mainly to large declines in building permits, stock prices, and initial unemployment claims, which offset the continued positive contributions from real money supply (M2) and the yield spread. Without the very large increases in inflation-adjusted money supply since September, the leading index would have been significantly weaker.

The coincident index also fell in November, driven by a very large contraction in employment and a smaller drop in industrial production. The lagging index rose slightly this month, and the coincident-to-lagging ratio decreased as a result (the ratio tends to have long leads in the business cycle).

All in all, the continued widespread deterioration in the composite indexes suggests that the recession that began in December 2007 will continue into the new year, and the contraction in economic activity could deepen further in the near term.

The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index decreased 0.8 percent, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent and the lagging index increased 0.1 percent in October.

The leading index declined sharply in October as stock prices, building permits, consumer expectations and the index of supplier deliveries made large negative contributions to the index, despite continued positive contributions from real money supply and the interest rate spread.

The coincident index increased in October, following five consecutive monthly declines. Industrial production recovered from its sharp September drop (partially due to two large hurricanes during that month), more than offsetting the continued decline in employment.

Taken together, the persistent and extensive deterioration of the composite indexes continues to suggest that the economy is unlikely to improve soon, and economic activity may contract further in the near term.

The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index increased 0.3 percent, the coincident index decreased 0.5 percent and the lagging index decreased 0.2 percent in September.

Real money supply, consumer expectations, the interest rate spread, and the index of supplier deliveries all made large positive contributions to the index in September, more than offsetting the negative contributions from building permits, stock prices, initial claims for unemployment insurance (inverted) and the average workweek in manufacturing.

The coincident index decreased sharply in September and it has declined or held steady since October 2007. The behavior of the composite indexes suggests that the economy is unlikely to improve in the near term.