Category: Research - Topic: Economics - TEXAS FED MFG

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 Texas Manufacturing Activity Still Weak Posted: August 30, 2010 at 10:30 AM (Monday)Texas factory activity was unchanged in August, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, came in at zero, posting a third consecutive month of little to no growth.
Most other indexes for current activity remained negative in August. The new orders index stayed at –9, implying incoming orders continue to fall. The capacity utilization and shipments indexes pushed deeper into negative territory, suggesting further contraction of business.
The general business activity index was negative for the third month in a row, but advanced in August as the share of respondents reporting improved activity rose from 10 to 15 percent. The company outlook index climbed back into positive territory after being negative for two months, as 23 percent of manufacturers said their outlook improved in August, compared with 13 percent in July.
The employment index turned negative for the first time in six months, largely due to the share of firms reporting layoffs rising from 15 percent in July to 23 percent in August, and hours worked contracted again. Wage and benefits costs rose modestly.
The raw materials price index doubled from 12 in July to 24 in August, reflecting a surge in input costs. Twenty-eight percent of manufacturers reported an increase in raw materials prices, while only 4 percent noted a decrease. Finished goods prices fell again in August, although three-fourths of firms reported no change in selling prices. The future indexes for both raw materials prices and finished goods prices were positive and rose.
Most future indexes of manufacturing conditions fell in August, but remained in solid positive territory. The future company outlook index fell from 16 to 9, with 31 percent of respondents expecting an improved outlook six months from now. However, the future general business activity index, a broader measure of economic conditions, dipped into negative territory for the first time in more than a year. |
 Texas Manufacturing Activity Remains Sluggish Posted: July 26, 2010 at 10:30 AM (Monday)Texas factory activity rebounded slightly in July, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key indicator of state manufacturing conditions, rose from –2 to 5, suggesting output expanded slightly in July after contracting in June.
Several indexes for factory activity continued to fall in July. The new orders and growth rate of orders indexes pushed deeper into negative territory, indicating a further contraction of demand. The index for capacity utilization dipped to –1, its first negative reading in nine months. The shipments index stabilized in July, rising from –9 to –1, with nearly equal shares of respondents noting an increase or decrease.
The general business activity index fell sharply to –21, its lowest level since July 2009. Thirty-one percent of firms reported a worsening of activity, up from 22 percent in June. The company outlook index also fell to a 12-month low, as only 13 percent of manufacturers said their outlook had improved over the previous month, compared with 24 percent who said it had worsened.
The employment index edged up and was positive for the fifth consecutive month, with 20 percent of firms reporting new hires. The wages and benefits index also rose, but overall wage pressures remained minimal, as 90 percent of respondents noted no change in compensation costs. The hours worked index dipped into negative territory, with 23 percent of manufacturers reporting a decrease in the average employee workweek.
The index for raw materials prices fell from 30 in June to 12 in July, suggesting the upward pressure on raw materials prices continued to moderate. Two-thirds of manufacturers reported no change in input costs, the highest share in six months. Downward pressure on finished goods prices intensified again in July, driving the index further into negative territory. The future raw materials prices index remained positive but slid to its lowest level in a year, while the future finished goods prices index fell to zero.
Optimism regarding firms’ six-month outlook continued to wane in July, although the indexes remained positive. The future production, capacity utilization and shipments indexes fell again this month, while the future indexes for new orders and growth rate of orders inched up but remained below the levels seen earlier this year. The future general business activity index decreased but remained in positive territory. The future company outlook index moved down from 22 to 16, with 32 percent of respondents expecting improved conditions six months from now. |
 Texas Manufacturing Activity Weakens Posted: June 28, 2010 at 10:30 AM (Monday)Texas factory activity declined slightly in June, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key indicator of state manufacturing conditions, fell from 21 in May to –2 in June, abruptly ending a seven-month streak of positive readings.
All remaining indexes for factory activity also fell in June, and many turned negative. The new orders index fell from 16 to –8 as 78 percent of respondents reported that their June orders were either flat or down from May. The shipments index fell from 15 to –9, suggesting shipments contracted in June after three consecutive months of growth.
The general business activity index turned negative also, with 82 percent of respondents noting that June activity worsened or was unchanged from the prior month. The company outlook index fell from 20 to –3, as only 18 percent of manufacturers said their outlook had improved over the previous month, compared with nearly a third in May.
The employment index remained positive for the fourth consecutive month, though it edged down in June as the share of firms reporting layoffs increased. The hours worked and wages and benefits indexes followed a similar pattern, moving lower but staying positive. The weaker labor market indexes are consistent with a slower pace of employment growth.
Upward pressure on raw materials prices moderated in June but remained strong, as more than a third of respondents continued to see increasing costs. Meanwhile, downward pressure on finished goods prices intensified, driving the index into negative territory. Nevertheless, the great majority of firms—82 percent—reported no change in prices received for finished goods. Forty-three percent of respondents anticipate further increases in raw materials prices over the next six months, while about one-quarter expect higher finished goods prices.
Firms were less optimistic about their six-month outlook in June. The indexes for future production, new orders and shipments stayed positive but fell this month. The future general business activity index decreased but remained in positive territory, with the share of firms expecting improved activity exceeded those anticipating worsened conditions by nearly 2 to 1. The future company outlook index edged down but stayed very positive, with 86 percent of respondents expecting either increased or unchanged activity six months from now. |
 Texas Manufacturing Activity Rises Again Posted: June 1, 2010 at 10:30 AM (Tuesday)Texas factory activity continued to expand in May, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key indicator of state manufacturing conditions, rose to its highest level in three years.
May’s improvement in the production index came from a smaller share of respondents reporting declines in activity. The portion reporting no change rose from 39 percent to 45 percent, while the share reporting increased activity fell slightly.
Other indicators of factory activity also expanded again in May, although several posted slower advances than in the prior month. The index for capacity utilization was strongly positive but edged downward, and the growth rate of orders index fell from 20 to 9. The new orders and shipments indexes were positive but largely unchanged after increasing in April.
The business activity index—the broadest indicator in our survey—stayed positive but fell sharply in May, reversing April’s strong increase. The company outlook index fell from 26 to 20, with about a third of manufacturers saying their outlook had improved over the previous month.
The employment index increased for the third consecutive month, with the share of firms hiring additional employees continuing to exceed the share making layoffs. The hours worked and the wages and benefits indexes were positive but nearly unchanged from April.
Strong upward pressure on raw materials prices continued in May. Forty-two percent of respondents saw increasing costs, while only 4 percent noted decreases. In contrast, only 13 percent of respondents noted increased finished goods prices. Half of respondents continued to anticipate further increases in raw materials prices over the next six months, and 29 percent expected higher finished goods prices.
Firms grew more optimistic about their six-month outlook in May, and most indexes for future manufacturing activity moved further into positive territory. The future business activity index jumped up, as the share of firms reporting improved activity exceeded those reporting worsened conditions by more than 3 to 1. The future company outlook also climbed, with 85 percent of respondents expecting either increased or unchanged activity six months from now. |
 Texas Manufacturing Activity Strengthens Further Posted: April 26, 2010 at 10:30 AM (Monday)Texas factory activity increased for the sixth month in a row in April, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key indicator of state manufacturing conditions, climbed further into positive territory as more producers reported increased activity.
The April production index came in at 18, up from its March level of 9, with 40 percent of respondents noting increased output.
Other indicators of current factory activity also pointed to strong growth. The indexes for capacity utilization, new orders and shipments showed marked increases. The growth rate of orders index jumped to its highest level since June 2006.
The index for capital expenditures, which had been negative for nearly two years, stabilized in April with a slightly positive reading. Still, four of five companies hadn’t made any changes in their capital expenditures over the prior month.
The business activity index increased sharply, with the share of manufacturers reporting improvement rising from 23 percent in March to 34 percent in April. The company outlook index also rose steeply, reaching its highest level in four years.
Labor market conditions in the region’s manufacturing sector continued to improve in April. The employment index signaled further job growth, with the share of firms hiring workers rising to 22 percent. Hours worked climbed again, and the wages and benefits index rose as the share of respondents noting increases doubled from 10 percent to 20 percent.
Upward pressure on raw materials prices persisted, with 44 percent of manufacturers reporting rising input costs. The share of respondents noting higher finished goods prices increased, and the index entered positive territory, although three-fourths of producers reported no change. Expectations of future price increases rose in April after abating in March. More than half of respondents anticipate further increases in raw materials prices over the next six months, while 26 percent expect higher finished goods prices.
Firms remain optimistic about their six-month outlook. The indexes for future production, capacity utilization and new orders stayed strongly positive in April. The future business activity index and six-month company outlook index rose after edging downward in recent months. |
 Texas Manufacturing Activity Expansion Continues Posted: March 29, 2010 at 10:30 AM (Monday)Texas factory activity expanded for the fifth straight month in March, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key indicator of state manufacturing conditions, rose to its highest level in two years.
Additional signs of strength came from other indicators of current factory activity. Capacity utilization rebounded, with the index rising to 15 in March after falling to 0 in February. The new orders index also jumped up sharply into positive territory after dipping below zero last month. The indexes for shipments and growth rate of orders also turned positive in March.
The business activity and company outlook indexes rebounded into positive territory after they slid below zero in February.
After several months of growth in production, there are finally signs that manufacturers have begun to replenish their materials inventories. The index turned positive in March after 18 months of negative readings. Finished goods inventories held steady as the index came in at zero, with 78 percent of producers noting no change in inventories over last month.
Labor demand among manufacturers improved in March. Eighteen percent of firms reported increases in employment, pushing the index into positive territory for the first time since July 2008. Hours worked and wages and benefits also increased.
Strong upward pressure on raw materials prices continued in March, and the share of respondents reporting higher input costs remained near 40 percent. Finished goods prices fell for the second month in a row. Expectations of price increases for raw materials and finished goods over the next six months abated.
All indexes for future activity were positive but moved lower in March, suggesting producers have lowered their expectations for the pace of growth in factory activity in coming months. The future business activity index and six-month company outlook index edged downward to 16 and 18, respectively. The indexes for future production, capacity utilization, new orders and shipments remained positive but fell in March. |
 Texas Manufacturing Activity Expands at a Slower Pace Posted: February 22, 2010 at 10:30 AM (Monday)Texas factory activity continued to expand in February, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key indicator of state manufacturing conditions, edged downward from its January reading but remained positive, suggesting slower growth in output.
Several indicators of current factory activity turned negative in February, reversing recent months’ improvements. The new orders index fell from 27 to –6, with the share of respondents reporting decreases more than tripling from January. With new orders falling, indexes for shipments and growth rate of orders also retreated, turning slightly negative. Capacity utilization was unchanged from January as the index came in at zero.
The business activity and company outlook indexes slid below zero due to an increase in the share of manufacturers reporting deteriorating conditions.
The index for employment remained negative but was little changed from January as most respondents held employment levels steady. The wages and benefits index was positive for the third consecutive month.
Upward pressure on raw materials prices continued in February, with 41 percent of producers reporting rising input costs. The finished goods price index remained close to zero, suggesting minimal pressures on selling prices. Expectations of upward price pressures over the next six months moderated in February as both the future raw materials price and the future finished goods price indexes edged downward.
Several future activity indexes weakened in February, but they remained positive, indicating firms are still optimistic about the six-month outlook. Forty-seven percent of executives continued to expect increases in production, capacity utilization and growth rate of orders six months from now, while one-third reported an improved six-month company outlook. The future business activity index was essentially unchanged in February. |
 Texas Manufacturing Activity Expands Again Posted: January 25, 2010 at 10:30 AM (Monday)Texas factory activity expanded in January, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key indicator of state manufacturing conditions, climbed further into positive territory as more producers reported either increased or unchanged activity from December.
The production barometer has signaled increases in factory activity in the last three months, suggesting a recovery is under way for an industry that has endured a 14-month decline, from September 2008 through October 2009.
In January, signs of improving manufacturing activity also came from several of the survey’s other indicators. The new orders index posted a large improvement as the share of respondents noting increases in orders rose from 25.6 percent to 34.9 percent. Indexes for shipments and growth rate of orders strengthened, with the share of respondents reporting increases exceeding those reporting declines by nearly 2 to 1. Capacity utilization also increased.
The business activity and company outlook indexes continued to improve in January, reaching their highest levels since mid-2007.
The index for employment remained negative but was little changed from December as 73.1 percent of employers reported no staffing changes. The average workweek index turned positive for the first time since July 2008 as the share of firms reporting declines in work hours fell substantially. The index for wages and benefits rose, but overall wage pressures remained minimal, with 83.3 percent of respondents noting no change in compensation costs.
January’s survey found continued upward pressure on raw materials prices. Thirty-three percent of producers reported rising input costs. The downward price pressures on finished goods that had been present throughout 2009 subsided in January, with the index coming in close to zero. Expectations of future price increases also rose. The future raw materials price index increased again in January, with 57.3 percent of firms foreseeing further increases in prices six months from now and the rest expecting no change. The future finished goods price index was also positive and rose further, suggesting that a sizable share of firms expect higher selling prices in the next six months. |
 Texas Manufacturing Holds Steady and Outlook Improves Further Posted: December 28, 2009 at 10:30 AM (Monday)Texas factory activity was flat in December, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key indicator of state manufacturing conditions, came in close to zero in December, suggesting output held steady after growing in November for the first time since July 2008.
All indexes for future activity strengthened substantially in December, suggesting a more upbeat six-month outlook. The majority of respondents expect increases in production, new orders and shipments in the next six months. The future business activity index climbed to its highest level in nearly three years, and 41 percent of responding executives reported an improved six-month company outlook.
Other broad indicators of current factory activity—including capacity utilization, shipments, new orders and growth rate of orders—remained positive and pointed to continued growth.
The business activity and company outlook indexes were positive for the second consecutive month in December, with manufacturers seeing better business conditions outnumbering those experiencing continued weakness.
The employment index remained negative but posted a big improvement as the share of respondents reporting layoffs fell from 27.3 percent in November to 17.9 percent in December.
Current capital investment continued to decline, but the future capital expenditures index climbed into positive territory. Twenty-three percent of manufacturers—the highest share since September 2008—said they expected increases in capital expenditures six months from now.
Downward pressures on finished goods prices remained, but the number of companies reporting declines in selling prices outpaced those seeing increases by the slimmest margin since October 2008. The raw materials price index was positive and rose, indicating producers were still seeing rising input costs. The future raw materials price index rose to its highest level since July 2008—when energy prices were at their peak. |
 Texas Manufacturing Expands After Prolonged Decline Posted: November 30, 2009 at 10:30 AM (Monday)Texas factory activity showed its first signs of growth in more than a year, according to business executives responding to November’s Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key indicator of state manufacturing conditions, turned positive for the first time since July 2008. Other key indexes of current factory activity—including capacity utilization, shipments, new orders and growth rate of orders—also moved into positive territory.
The business activity and company outlook indexes also improved. After two years in negative territory, they came in close to zero in November as the number of companies reporting better business conditions and those noting further weakness were nearly equal.
The employment index remained negative, implying more manufacturers are laying off than are hiring. The average workweek index was also negative in November, but posted a big improvement over the prior month as the share of respondents noting increased work hours rose sharply from 6.7 percent to 16.3 percent. Wage pressures were still minimal, with the majority of producers reporting no change in wages and benefits.
Manufacturers continued to draw down inventories. The index for materials inventories fell to its lowest reading in eight months, and 30 percent of manufacturers reported declines in their finished goods inventories.
Price pressures were mixed. The finished goods price index remained negative, although the great majority of respondents reported no change in selling prices. The raw materials price index was positive and rose, indicating that producers continue to see rising input costs. Expectations for raw material price increases over the next six months were elevated as well. |
 Texas Manufacturing Falls, but Outlook Improves Further Posted: October 26, 2009 at 10:00 AM (Monday)Texas factory activity declined in October, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index—a key indicator of current manufacturing activity—edged further into negative territory, suggesting output in October contracted after remaining stable in September.
Current activity indexes for new orders and shipments turned negative, erasing gains seen last month. The company outlook and business activity indexes remained slightly negative, but a growing majority of executives reported no changes from the prior month and only a fifth noted worsening outlooks and decreased business activity.
The employment index remained negative as more respondents are trimming payrolls than hiring. However, nearly 70 percent of manufacturers reported no changes in staff levels or hours worked.
Price pressures remained tame, with about three-fourths of respondents reporting no change from the previous month in input and selling prices. The raw materials price index rose as firms reporting higher input prices continued to outpace those seeing declines by a significant margin. Some companies continued to report net declines in prices for their manufactured goods, keeping the finished goods price index negative. |
 Texas Manufacturing Activity Shows Hopeful Signs of Bottoming Posted: September 28, 2009 at 10:30 PM (Monday)Texas factory activity showed the first signs of bottoming out in September, according to the business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key indicator of current manufacturing activity, came in close to zero as the number of companies seeing increases and decreases was nearly equal.
Most indexes of current activity improved, continuing a trend that began in spring. The shipments index turned positive for the first time in 14 months. The new orders index also moved into positive territory, indicating that manufacturers are seeing growing demand. Indexes for capacity utilization and growth rate of orders improved but remained slightly negative.
The business activity and company outlook indexes also saw further improvement in September, largely because fewer companies are seeing deteriorating conditions. Both remain negative, however. |
 Texas Manufacturing Activity Declines Continue to Moderate Posted: August 31, 2009 at 10:30 AM (Monday)Results of the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey suggest that factory activity continued to contract at a slower pace in August.
The production index dipped slightly. Indexes for capacity utilization, new orders and growth rate of orders ticked upward, but they remained negative. For the most part, the changes reflect fewer companies seeing declines in these measures.
The August survey echoes the broad signal from the previous five months that Texas factory output and employment is still receding but at a slower pace. The signal for a recovery will be positive readings in key current indexes.
Although still negative, the business activity index saw significant improvement as the share of companies reporting better market conditions rose and the share reporting weaker conditions declined from July to August. The company outlook index also strengthened, recovering ground lost since May 2008. |
 Texas Manufacturing Activity Remains Weak Posted: July 27, 2009 at 10:30 AM (Monday)Declines in Texas manufacturing continued to moderate in July, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. Nearly all indexes of current factory activity posted seasonal declines; however, seasonally adjusted data soon to be released suggest the rate of contraction has slowed.
Unadjusted indexes for production, capacity utilization and shipments remained negative, but the largest group of companies—well over 40 percent—said activity was unchanged. Nearly half of the manufacturers said growth in new orders was flat in July.
The company outlook and business activity indexes—the survey’s broadest measures of state manufacturing trends—continued to reflect widespread downbeat sentiment. The majority of executives reported no change from the prior month, while 30 percent of executives reported worsening outlooks and a third noted decreased business activity. |
 Texas Manufacturing Contraction Ebbs Further, Outlook Stays Positive Posted: June 29, 2009 at 10:30 AM (Monday)Declines in Texas factory activity moderated further in June, according to the business executives who responded to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.
Indexes for production, capacity utilization, new orders and growth rate of orders improved slightly from their May readings, but they remained negative, suggesting continued weakness. For the most part, the changes reflect fewer companies seeing declines in these measures, not more firms reporting increases.
Weak labor market conditions persisted. The employee index was virtually unchanged in June, and a fourth of those responding reported cut backs in work hours. Wage pressures remained minimal, with 85 percent of companies indicating no changes in current compensation and three-fourths expecting wages to hold steady six months from now. |
 Texas Manufacturing Still Weak but Outlook Improves Again Posted: May 26, 2009 at 10:30 AM (Tuesday)Texas factory activity remained weak and changed little from April to May, according to the business executives who responded to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The manufacturing sector’s rate of decline stabilized over the past three months—a change from the accelerating contractions in the last quarter of 2008 and first two months of this year.
Most indicators of future activity continued to improve, suggesting manufacturers expect better conditions over the next six months. The future general business activity index—the survey’s broadest measure of Texas manufacturing trends—turned positive for the first time since September 2007. Indexes for future production, shipments, new orders and growth rate of orders rose markedly. More than a fourth of manufacturing executives foresee improvement in their firm’s outlook six months from now.
Although still negative, the overall business activity and company outlook indexes strengthened as the share of executives reporting improvements ticked up from April to May. The renewed optimism has yet to show up in the other gauges of current activity. Indexes for production, new orders and growth rate of orders showed little change from April to May, but dips in the measures for capacity utilization and shipments suggest continued weakness. |
 Texas Manufacturing Slump Moderates, 6-Month Outlook Improves Posted: April 27, 2009 at 10:30 AM (Monday)The decline in Texas manufacturing activity slowed in April, according to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. Indexes for production, capacity utilization, volume of new orders and shipments edged upward for the second consecutive month, but they remained negative, indicating manufacturers are still retrenching. For the most part, the gains reflect fewer companies seeing declines in these measures, not more firms reporting recoveries.
Although still negative, the business activity index—the survey’s broadest measure of state manufacturing trends—saw improvement as the share of companies reporting better market conditions rose from March to April. The company outlook index strengthened, recovering the ground lost since September.
Manufacturers continued to draw down inventories. The index for materials inventories remained close to the previous month’s record low, and over a third of those responding noted declines in their finished goods inventory levels.
Manufacturers’ labor demand continued to contract. Firms reporting job cuts exceeded those hiring workers by a 10-to-1 margin, and 36 percent of firms noted declines in work hours. Falling demand for factory workers kept wage pressures in check, with 84 percent of companies noting no changes in compensation.
Downward price pressures persisted. Firms paying less for raw materials outnumbered firms paying more by 6-to-1, and 34 percent cited lower prices for their goods. Firms expect deflationary price pressures to subside over the next six months. More than two-thirds of manufacturers expect no change in finished goods prices six months from now, up from just a third in July.
Most indicators of future activity continued to improve, suggesting manufacturers expect declines in factory activity to slow further over the next six months. Indexes for future capacity utilization, shipments, new orders and growth rate of orders rose notably, and more than a third of manufacturing executives foresee increases in production and capacity utilization six months from now. The six-month company outlook index turned positive for the first time since June 2008, and 32 percent of firms anticipate that their firm’s conditions will improve. |
 Texas Manufacturing Activity Weak but Outlook Turns Up Slightly Posted: March 30, 2009 at 10:30 AM (Monday)Texas’ factory activity continued to contract in March, according to firms responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. Indexes for production, capacity utilization, new orders and shipments ticked upward but remained overwhelmingly negative, with more than 80 percent of respondents reporting no change or declines in these measures.
The business activity index, the survey’s broadest measure of state manufacturing trends, revealed widespread downbeat sentiment. Fifty-three percent of responding manufacturing executives reported worsening market conditions, and 43 percent indicated no improvement from the prior month.
Several indicators of future activity suggest that the region’s manufacturers expect declines in factory activity to ease over the next six months. Indexes for future production, capacity utilization, shipments, new orders and growth rate of orders improved modestly for the fourth consecutive month, and 40 percent of manufacturing executives foresee increases in production six months from now.
Consistent with shrinking domestic demand and ebbing overseas sales, manufacturers continued to draw down inventories. The index for materials inventories plunged to its lowest reading since the start of the survey in 2004, and 30 percent of manufacturers noted declines in their finished goods inventories.
Manufacturers’ demand for labor remained weak. More than half of surveyed firms reported job cuts, and the average workweek index plummeted. The sluggish demand kept wage pressures subdued, with 82 percent of respondents noting no changes in wages and benefits.
Manufacturers continued to report downward prices pressures. Fifty percent noted falling input prices, and 34 percent cited lower prices for their goods. Firms’ expectations for future price increases were subdued as well. The index for raw materials prices over the next six months remained negative, and manufacturers expecting declines in finished goods prices outnumbered those foreseeing increases by more than three-to-one. |
 Texas Manufacturing Activity Still Contracting Posted: February 23, 2009 at 10:30 AM (Monday)Texas manufacturing activity continued to deteriorate in February, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. All indexes for current activity remained at extremely low levels.
The production index fell to a new low, with nearly half of the respondents indicating declines in output. The share of respondents reporting declines in capacity utilization, volume of new orders and shipments exceeded those noting improvements by four-to-one. The employment and average workweek indexes were negative for the seventh consecutive month as manufacturers continued to trim payrolls. Forty-four percent of respondents noted reduced staff levels, while 40 percent reported cutbacks in work hours.
Consistent with overall weakness, the capital expenditures index retreated further. Forty-three percent of executives reported shrinking investment budgets, and 57 percent indicated no change. None of the respondents cited an increase in their capital spending plans. The company outlook and general business activity indexes continued to reveal overwhelmingly negative sentiment, with 54 percent of respondents seeing a worsening outlook and 59 percent noting weakening market conditions.
Manufacturers reported downward prices pressures. Forty-three percent noted declines in input prices, and 37 percent cited lower prices for their goods. Firms’ expectations for future price increases were modest. The index for future finished goods prices dropped to its lowest level since the survey began in 2004. Looking ahead six months, manufacturers expecting declines in raw material prices outnumber those foreseeing increases by more than two-to-one.
Indexes of future activity suggest the region’s manufacturers expect little or no growth in demand over the next six months. The indexes for future production, volume of new orders and shipments remained close to record lows, and two-thirds of the respondents said they expected no change or further declines in these measures six months from now. |
 Texas Manufacturing Activity Continues to Contract Posted: January 26, 2009 at 10:30 AM (Monday)Texas manufacturing activity remained weak in January, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. Current activity indexes for production, capacity utilization, growth rate of orders, delivery time, volume of new orders and shipments remained at near-record lows.
In addition, most indexes for future activity stayed flat, and respondents continued to report bleak six-month expectations. After dropping to record lows in December, several indicators for current activity registered a seasonal uptick. However, seasonally adjusted data (not yet released publicly) show continued declines.
Concerns about the deepening national recession continued to depress business sentiment. Both the company outlook and general business activity indexes continued to reveal overwhelmingly downbeat sentiment, with 47 percent of respondents reporting a dismal outlook and 55 percent noting worsening market conditions. Labor markets weakened further. The employment index fell for the sixth consecutive month, hitting an all-time low. The average workweek index improved slightly but remained negative, with 31 percent of executives reporting cutbacks in hours and only 8 percent reporting increases.
Price pressures continued to subside. Fifty-three percent of firms noted declines in input prices, and 33 percent cited lower prices for their own manufactured goods. Firms’ expectations for future price increases were subdued as well. The index for future raw material prices dropped to its lowest level since the survey began in 2004. The index for future finished goods prices was negative and virtually unchanged. |
 Texas Manufacturing Activity Declines Deepen Posted: December 29, 2008 at 10:31 AM (Monday)Texas factory activity deteriorated further in December, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. Nearly all indexes of current activity remained negative, and several dropped to record lows. The six-month outlook remained uncertain and weak, and a majority of respondents noted a decline in planned capital expenditures for 2009.
Coincident with the faltering national economy, the index for level of business activity remained negative, and more than 60 percent of the respondents reported worsening conditions. The company outlook index dropped to its lowest level since the survey’s inception in June 2004.
Indexes for production, growth rate of orders and volume of shipments retreated further into negative territory, reflecting sluggish demand. The volume of new orders and capacity utilization indexes fell precipitously as the number of respondents reporting declines in these measures exceeded those reporting increases by more than five-to-one. |
 Texas Manufacturing Outlook Worsens Posted: November 24, 2008 at 10:31 AM (Monday)Texas manufacturing activity deteriorated further in November, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. Most indicators of current factory activity plunged. Several indexes for future production fell to their lowest levels since the survey started in June 2004, suggesting respondents expect continued deterioration in manufacturing activity over the next six months.
Concerns about economic and financial conditions weakened current factory activity. The general business activity index revealed overwhelmingly negative sentiment, with 64 percent of respondents reporting worsening conditions. The company outlook index remained negative for the sixth consecutive month.
Indexes for production, capacity utilization, volume of shipments, unfilled orders and delivery time slid further into negative territory. The volume of new orders index plummeted to a record low, and over half of the executives reported decreases in the growth rate of new orders. Labor markets softened further. Both the employment and average workweek indexes fell in November, with about a third of respondents citing declines in these measures. |
 Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey Continues to Deteriorate Posted: October 27, 2008 at 11:36 AM (Monday)Texas manufacturing activity continued to decline in October. Most indicators of current production and general business conditions remained weak. Nearly all indexes for future activity dipped considerably, and several manufacturers noted that the credit crisis had dampened their outlook. Indexes for production, capacity utilization, volume of shipments, volume of new orders and growth rate of orders remained negative due to continued sluggish demand.
Labor market conditions weakened. The employment index continued to slide. The average workweek index improved slightly in October, although twice as many manufacturers reported declines in hours worked than cited increases.
Wage and price pressures, eased noticeably this month. Indexes for raw material prices and finished goods prices recorded their lowest readings since the survey’s inception in 2004. The wage and benefits index fell as a larger share of respondents reported decreases in compensation than last month. Inflation expectations were subdued, with more than 76 percent of respondents saying they expected stable or lower raw materials and finished goods prices six months from now.
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 Dallas Fed - Texas Factory Activity Declines Posted: September 29, 2008 at 10:31 AM (Monday)Texas manufacturing weakened further in September. Most indicators of current production and general business conditions recorded their lowest readings since the survey’s inception in 2004. Respondents largely attributed the weakness to Hurricane Ike hitting the Texas Gulf Coast on Sept. 13 and leading to widespread factory closures in the area. Some indexes for activity six months from now remained positive and improved notably, suggesting producers expected growth to recover in the near future.
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