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Peter Morici: Fed’s Powell should say less and stay the course to quell inflation

11/29/22 02:43PM - Fed policymakers talk about expectations every chance they get. The Federal Reserve should do more, say less and be more modest. Although inflation, as measured on a year-over-year basis by the consumer price index, declined from its 9.1.% June peak to 7.7% in October, the Fed continues to confront tough structural challenges. The Russian …more…

William Dunkelberg: Inflation: Has It Peaked?

11/29/22 09:20AM - The Federal Reserve is conducting an aggressive war on inflation, with a risk that its policies will trigger a recession, as it did in 1980. The basic strategy is to get "you" to spend less, which will reduce the pressure on prices (so would producing more stuff but that's not in the Feds toolbox). With (real) sales weakening and …more…

Allison Schrager: Big Tech Has Failed to Live Up to Its Promise

11/29/22 06:00AM - Recent layoffs are a sign not just of over-investment in the sector, but of deeper, structural issues that may take many years to resolve. It's tempting to dismiss the mass layoffs and collapsing stock prices in the tech sector as just another blip in the tech boom-and-bust cycle. Technology firms may make up 36% of the S&P 500, but they …more…

Chris Bryant: Palantir Failed to Spot Pattern in SPAC Debacle

11/29/22 12:00AM - The data-analysis company aimed to use deals with startups to jumpstart its non-government business. There were some misfires. Palantir Technologies Inc.'s raison d'etre is identifying patterns hidden within mountains of data. Yet somehow it didn't spot the risks in its own investment strategy or the danger that startups might not be able to …more…

Review & Outlook: The Parable of the Child Tax Credit

11/28/22 06:40PM - Democrats hope to expand this bad policy in the lame-duck session. Congress is returning to Washington for a lame-duck session, and Democrats think they’ve found the perfect holiday gift for hard-to-shop-for American voters: Subsidies for children. The left and some Republicans will argue that only childless ghouls could oppose cash for kids, …more…

Paul Krugman: How China Lost the Covid War

11/28/22 06:00PM - Do you remember when Covid was going to establish China as the world's dominant power? As late as mid-2021, my inbox was full of assertions that China's apparent success in containing the coronavirus showed the superiority of the Chinese system over Western societies that, as one commentator put it, "did not have the ability to quickly …more…

Scott Hodge: The Child Tax Credit Is a Failed Experiment

11/28/22 01:08PM - I introduced the idea in a 1993 Heritage Foundation paper. It was a lot better in theory than in practice. Advocates are pushing Congress to extend and make permanent the temporary expansion of the child tax credit included in the American Rescue Plan of 2021, claiming this would reduce childhood poverty. I was one of the inventors of the …more…

Nick Timiraos: Fed’s Williams Says Inflation Fight Could Last Into 2024

11/28/22 12:09PM - The New York Fed president points to signs that price pressures are easing, but sees inflation remaining above 3% in a year. A senior Federal Reserve official said he expects inflation pressures to recede over the next year but cautioned the central bank will continue to have its work cut out because prices may decelerate to levels still above …more…

Mohamed El-Erian: The consensus forecast on recession risks complacency

11/28/22 10:47AM - Planning for a range of outcomes is preferable to relying on a shaky prediction. You would think that, after the chastening delivered by last year’s transitory inflation call, consensus forecasters would be more open-minded in how they describe the US recession they see coming in 2023. Yet they are confidently asserting that this recession …more…

Alexander William Salter: Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply: Keep It Simple, Stupid!

11/28/22 09:30AM - If we want to understand economic fluctuations and business cycles, we need a disciplined way of thinking about how the nominal economy (denominated in current-valued dollars, e.g. market prices and interest rates) interacts with the real economy (denominated in dollarless quantities, e.g. unemployment and output). Economists have a pretty …more…

Julian Lee: Is OPEC+ About to Cut Oil Output Again? Don’t Rule It Out

11/28/22 07:43AM - Crude has tumbled to the lowest in almost a year as traders digest China’s Covid turmoil — it may force OPEC to act this weekend. As in politics, a week is an awfully long time in the oil market. Seven days ago, Saudi Arabia was denying a report that OPEC+ members were discussing an output increase ahead of their meeting this weekend. But …more…

Olivier Blanchard: It is time to revisit the 2% inflation target

11/28/22 07:31AM - The right goal for central banks in advanced economies such as the US might be 3% a year. Back in 2010, Giovanni Dell’Ariccia, Paolo Mauro and I argued for a 4 per cent target for inflation. At the time, central banks overwhelmingly rejected the idea. The reason was not so much disagreement with the logic, but the perception of a risk that, …more…