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Peter Morici: Supersized government spending could cost Americans $850 billion in higher taxes, more inflation and lost benefits

06/18/24 07:05AM - Deficit puts dollar’s global dominance and U.S. living standards at risk. Americans enjoy lower taxes, bigger entitlements programs, and a strong currency that collectively is worth about $850 billion a year. As economies grow, a government can finance some additional spending by adding to the money supply at about the same pace without …more…

Alexander William Salter: How America Can Win the New Space Race

06/18/24 06:30AM - The American public must demand its leaders get serious about winning in space. The ongoing competition between the U.S. and China is the defining geopolitical event of our time. International finance and trade, the status of Taiwan, and energy security are some of the hot-button contests both sides want to win. Yet the struggle with the …more…

Mohamed El-Erian: Fed needs to cut interest rates sooner rather than later

06/17/24 11:00PM - Delay by US central bank in easing monetary policy could jeopardise soft economic landing. “It doesn’t matter when the Federal Reserve starts cutting rates. What really matters is where they finish.” That is one view that is being heard around Wall Street.

At first glance, this advice serves as a timely caution for the many market participants currently obsessed with whether the Federal Reserve, reassured by the latest inflation data, will begin its rate-cutting cycle in September or wait longer, as several Fed officials …more…

William Dunkelberg: Wages And Prices: The Chicken Or The Egg?

06/17/24 11:35AM - A recent NFIB Forbes article on small businesses reported that over the last 20 years, the most significant driver of price raising activity was compensation, followed by supply issues and sales trends. The market prices of goods are very sensitive to supply changes. If gasoline prices fall, every gallon is impacted, regardless of what it costs …more…

Peter Earle: Sense and Nonsense on Petrodollars

06/17/24 06:00AM - Last week several reports suggested the termination of a US-Saudi petrodollar agreement, and speculated a Saudi Arabian move to sell oil on world markets in various currencies, including the Chinese yuan. The accounts were rife with inaccuracies: the Saudis' have transacted in non-dollar currencies for decades, and there has never been a …more…

Jason Furman: The Fed Can Take Its Time Taming Inflation

06/16/24 01:01PM - The ‘last mile’ may prove the hardest, validating central bank policymakers’ caution on rate cuts. Two years ago the six-month annual pace of core inflation was 6%. Now it has fallen to 3%, without a recession. Does that mean we can count on inflation easing painlessly to 2% and the Fed can begin cutting rates in anticipation of an imminent …more…

Komal Sri-Kumar: What Will Cause Rate Cuts

06/14/24 05:34PM - Good Inflation News This Week Not Sufficient. There was good news on the inflation front on Wednesday. Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated that headline consumer prices were unchanged last month following a 0.3% rise in April. That data-point, and the slowing of the core inflation measure (which excludes food and …more…

Liz Peek: Even Jay Powell doesn’t believe the jobs numbers — why should we?

06/14/24 08:00AM - Do you believe the U.S. added 272,000 jobs last month? If not, you have plenty of company. The figure is so out of scale, and so at odds with other indicators of the employment picture, that it almost surely is wrong, and likely to be revised sharply lower. After all, another Bureau of Labor Statistics report shows that 625,000 fewer people …more…

Diana Furchtgott-Roth: Global Pushback against the Greens

06/14/24 06:30AM - Voters around the world are making themselves heard on ‘clean’ energy. United Nations secretary-general Ant\u00f3nio Guterres has proclaimed fossil-fuel companies godfathers of climate chaos, but many Europeans, Africans, and Americans clearly disagree. They have recently shown what they think of the green agenda of costly renewables and …more…

John Tamny: Janet Yellen’s Zero-Sum Thinking Is the Big Economic Threat, Not China

06/13/24 05:30PM - It's too easily ignored that macroeconomics is a myth, a false notion presuming that what we call an "economy" is a living, breathing, tangible blob. In reality, an economy is just individuals. Meaning all economics is microeconomics. This is seemingly lost on Treasury secretary Janet Yellen. At a recent speech given at the Frankfurt School …more…

Thomas Hogan: Philly Fights Back

06/13/24 02:52PM - The new mayor and police chief are attacking crime and disorder, with encouraging early results. For the past decade, Philadelphia has earned a reputation as a city marked by violent crime, open air drug markets, and feckless leadership. But a new mayor and chief of police have decided that enough is enough. The Kensington neighborhood has …more…

Jed Graham: Jump In Jobless Claims, Soft PPI Lift Fed Rate-Cut Odds

06/13/24 11:00AM - Initial jobless claims jumped to the highest level since last summer, while the core producer prices were unchanged, lifting the odds for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September. The S&P 500 dipped in Thursday morning stock market action. While new Fed projections on Wednesday signaled a likelihood of a single rate-cut this year, Wall Street …more…