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Mark Mills: The Energy to Prevent and Prosecute Wars

03/17/24 08:39PM - A generation of anti-hydrocarbon policies has crippled Europe’s defense capabilities. Whatever one thinks about its causes, course, and consequences, the war in Ukraine rages on. That unavoidable fact has brought many in Europe to something of an epiphany. In late February, at a summit of European leaders in Paris, French president Emmanuel …more…

Judy Shelton: Don’t Credit the Fed for Inflation’s Decline

03/17/24 12:17PM - The central bank failed to constrain economic growth. As supply increased, price increases eased. It has been two years since the Federal Reserve began its pivot from near-zero interest rates in March 2022 to its current target range of 5.25% to 5.5%. The rate hikes surged as inflation hit 9.1% in June 2022, but inflation has since settled down …more…

John Tamny: Central Banks Neither Own Debt Nor 'Print Money’ To Buy It

03/17/24 10:00AM - It's popular among the conspiracy-minded and central bank-obsessed (frequently the two go together) to suggest that governments establish central banks to buy their debt. The very notion is self-discrediting. How could a creation of government serve as the financier of same? How indeed. The answer here is that central banks neither own debt …more…

Komal Sri-Kumar: Inflation: Trap of Fed's Own Making - Basing Policy on "Causa Falsa" Will Do It!

03/16/24 09:31AM - Poor Jerome Powell! Within a week of his testimony before the Senate Banking Committee that we are "not far" from getting the confidence to start cutting interest rates, new inflation data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday (here) and Thursday (here) undercut him. It must be a painful lesson for the Federal Reserve to …more…

J. Bradford DeLong: The Mystery of US Interest Rates

03/14/24 11:20AM - BERKELEY – The near-consensus since the start of the pandemic has been that there are powerful fundamental factors keeping the neutral interest rate very low, and that there have been no major changes to those fundamentals. Why, then, is the long-term real safe interest rate so far above the neutral level? In the United States, the long-term …more…

Alexander William Salter: Inflation Remains Elevated. Is Money Actually Tight?

03/13/24 10:42AM - There's been another bump in the disinflationary road. The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 0.4 percent in February and 3.2 percent year-over-year, exceeding many economists' predictions. That's up slightly from January's 0.3-percent monthly and 3.1-percent …more…

Jed-Graham: Hot CPI Inflation Won't Hurt Fed Rate-Cut Hope

03/12/24 04:02PM - Consumer price index data for February showed that core inflation ran hotter than expected last month, but services inflation moderated after heating up in January. The S&P 500 rose strongly in Tuesday stock market action after the CPI inflation data, as markets weighed the implications for the Fed rate-cut outlook.
CPI Inflation Report Hits …more…

Allison Schrager: What the US Economy Needs Is a Cheap Date

03/11/24 12:00PM - Before the pandemic, eating out was an affordable luxury. Now it has become expensive, and a lot of Americans are feeling the strain. Please indulge me in some taxi-driver reporting (or, in this case, ride-share driver reporting): A few months ago, traveling in a city cheaper than New York, my driver told me that he and his wife had a weekly …more…

John Tamny: The Federal Reserve’s Challenge Is Economists, Not Too Much Growth

03/10/24 10:00AM - "The economy is looking up, and that's a challenge for the Federal Reserve." Those are the words of Hoover Institution visiting scholar Mickey Levy. We must be a really rich country, or something like that… Too many people working and too many businesses prospering is a challenge? The answer to the above question is that prosperity is a problem …more…

Komal Sri-Kumar: Do Markets Need Powell's Cheerleading?

03/09/24 09:12AM - Latest Promise: "Not Far" From Rate Cuts! The US Federal Reserve under Jerome Powell's leadership has shown repeated tendency to undercut its mandate on inflation by providing dovish messages. When the gentler tone turns out to have adverse consequences, officials abruptly shift stance with no sign that any lesson was learned. It happened …more…

John Goodman: What’s Wrong With The U.S. Welfare State?

03/07/24 11:34AM - Here are two surprising facts about welfare and poverty in the United States: (1) we are spending an enormous amount of money on people at the bottom of the income ladder and 2) all that spending does a very poor job of meeting human needs. And here is a surprising opportunity: if we took all of the money we are currently spending on …more…

Alexander William Salter: Faster Growth and Interest Rates: Even Harder than You Think

03/07/24 06:00AM - Writing in the Wall Street Journal, Mickey Levy opines that a stronger economy, fueled by productivity growth, might cause problems for the Federal Reserve. Levy, who is a member of the Shadow Open Market Committee, identifies the central bank's difficult task: "adjusting monetary policy to reflect the higher real interest rates that …more…