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Category: Research - Topic: Economics


Texas Fed Manufacturing Activity Expansion Moderates in October
Posted: November 30, 2020 at 10:30 AM (Monday)

Texas factory activity expanded in November for the sixth consecutive month, though at a markedly slower pace, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, fell from 25.5 to 7.2, indicating a deceleration in ...


Pending Home Sales Index Dipped 1.1% in October
Posted: November 30, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

Pending home sales fell slightly in October, according to the National Association of Realtors. Contract activity was mixed among the four major U.S. regions, with the only positive month-over-month growth happening in the South, although each region achieved year-over-year gains in pending home ...


Chicago Purchasing Managers Index slipped 2.9 points to 58.2 in November
Posted: November 30, 2020 at 09:45 AM (Monday)

The Chicago Business BarometerTM, produced with MNI, slipped to 58.2 in November. The index now stands at the lowest level since August but remains in expansion.

Among the main five indicators, New Orders and Production posted the only declines, while Supplier Deliveries saw the largest gain. ...


Personal Income decreased 0.7%, Spending increased 0.5% in October 2020
Posted: November 25, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Personal income decreased $130.1 billion (0.7 percent) in October according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (tables 3 and 5). Disposable personal income (DPI) decreased $134.8 billion (0.8 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $70.9 billion ...


New Home Sales in October 2020 at annual rate of 999,000
Posted: November 25, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

New Home Sales
Sales of new single-family houses in October 2020 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 999,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 0.3 percent (±13.6 percent)* below the revised September rate of 1,002,000, but is 41.5 ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence fell in November to 76.9
Posted: November 25, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Consumer sentiment fell in November due to a sharp decline in economic prospects, according to the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.

The decline was due to the current and expected resurgence in the COVID-19 virus as well as shifts in expectations following the outcome of the presidential election, said U-M economist Richard Curtin, director of the surveys. ...


3Q2020 GDP preliminary estimate increased 33.1%
Posted: November 25, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 33.1 percent in the third quarter of 2020 (table 1), according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP decreased 31.4 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month that also showed an increase in real GDP of 33.1 percent. With the second estimate, upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment, ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase 30,000 to 778,000
Posted: November 25, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

In the week ending November 21, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 778,000, an increase of 30,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 6,000 from 742,000 to 748,000. The 4-week moving average was 748,500, an increase of 5,000 from the previous week's revised average. ...


October New Orders for Durable Goods Increased 1.3%, Ex-Trans up 1.3%
Posted: November 25, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in October increased $3.0 billion or 1.3 percent to $240.8 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up six consecutive months, followed a 2.1 percent September increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 1.3 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: November 25, 2020 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 3.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 20, 2020.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 3.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 3 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 5 ...


Consumer Confidence declined in November 2020 to 96.1
Posted: November 24, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® declined in November, after remaining relatively flat in October. The Index now stands at 96.1 (1985=100), down from 101.4 (an upward revision) in October. The Present Situation Index – based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions – decreased slightly from 106.2 ...


Richmond Fed's Current Activity Index fell from 29 to 15 in November 2020
Posted: November 24, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Reports from Fifth District manufacturers were broadly positive in November, according to the most recent survey from the Richmond Fed. The composite fell from 29 in October to 15 in November, but remained firmly in expansionary territory, as all three component indexes — shipments, new orders, and employment — had positive readings. ...


S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices increase 1.2% in September 2020
Posted: November 24, 2020 at 09:00 AM (Tuesday)

S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for September 2020 show that home prices continue to increase across the U.S.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 7.0% annual gain in September, up from 5.8% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 6.2%, up from 4.9% in ...


Philadelphia Fed NonManufacturing Survey Suggest Activity moderated in November
Posted: November 24, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Firms responding to the November Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey indicated a moderation in business activity. The indexes for general activity at the firm level, sales/revenues, and new orders all posted declines for the month, with the latter two indexes reaching negative territory. However, the survey's indexes for full-time ...


Chicago Fed National Activity Index Suggests Economic Growth Increased in October
Posted: November 23, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

Led by improvements in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to +0.83 in October from +0.32 in September. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made positive contributions in October, and three of the four categories increased from September. The ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity continued to grow modestly in November
Posted: November 19, 2020 at 11:00 AM (Thursday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity continued to grow modestly in November. Manufacturing activity remained below year ago levels, but expectations for future activity remained solid. Prices paid for raw materials and finished goods continued to expand compared to a month ago and a year ago. District firms expected prices for both raw ...


Existing-Home Sales increased 4.3% in October
Posted: November 19, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Existing-home sales continued to trend upward in October, marking five consecutive months of month-over-month gains, according to the National Association of Realtors®. All four major regions reported both month-over-month and year-over-year growth, with the Midwest experiencing the greatest ...


U.S. Leading Economic Index increased 0.7% in October
Posted: November 19, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.7 percent in October to 108.2 (2016 = 100), following a 0.7 percent increase in September and a 1.6 percent increase in August.

“The US LEI rose again in October, with widespread improvements despite weakness from housing permits and consumers’ outlook on economic conditions. However, the leading index has been decelerating in recent months, which suggests growth will moderate significantly in the ...


Philadelphia Fed Outlook Activity continued to grow in November
Posted: November 19, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Manufacturing activity in the region continued to grow, according to firms responding to the November Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey's current indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments remained positive for the sixth consecutive month but fell from their readings in October. However, employment increases ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase 31,000 to 742,000
Posted: November 19, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending November 14, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 742,000, an increase of 31,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 709,000 to 711,000. The 4-week moving average was 742,000, a decrease of 13,750 from the previous week's revised average. ...


October Housing Starts Increased 4.9%, Permits unch%
Posted: November 18, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Building Permits
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,545,000. This is virtually unchanged (±1.3 percent)* from the revised September rate of 1,545,000, but is 2.8 percent (±1.6 percent) above the October 2019 rate of 1,503,000. Single-family authorizations ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: November 18, 2020 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 0.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 13, 2020. This week's results do not include an adjustment for the Veterans' Day ...


Treasury International Capital Data for September 2020
Posted: November 17, 2020 at 04:00 PM (Tuesday)

The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for September 2020. The sum total in September of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a net TIC outflow of $79.9 billion. Of this, net foreign private outflows were $40.3 billion, and ...


Business Inventories up 0.7% in September
Posted: November 17, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for September, adjusted for seasonal and trading day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,465.1 billion, up 0.6 percent (±0.1 percent) from August 2020 and was up 0.8 percent (±0.4 percent) from ...


NAHB Builder Confidence increased 5 points to 90 in November
Posted: November 17, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

In another sign that housing continues to lead the economy forward, builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes increased five points to 90 in November, shattering the previous all-time of 85 recorded in October, according to the latest NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. Builder confidence ...


Industrial Production increased 1.1%
Capacity Utilization increased to 72.8%

Posted: November 17, 2020 at 09:15 AM (Tuesday)

Industrial production rose 1.1 percent in October. The index has recovered much of its 16.5 percent decline from February to April, but output in October was still 5.6 percent lower than its pre-pandemic February level. After edging up 0.1 percent in September, manufacturing output increased 1.0 percent in October. The output of utilities rose ...


U.S. Retail Sales for October 2020 Increased 0.3%, Ex-Auto up 0.2%
Posted: November 17, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for October 2020, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $553.3 billion, an increase of 0.3 percent (±0.5 percent)* from the previous month, and 5.7 percent (±0.7 percent) above October 2019. Total sales for the August ...


U.S. Import Price Index decreased 0.1% in October 2020
Posted: November 17, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

U.S. import prices edged down 0.1 percent in October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, after rising 0.2 percent the previous month. The October decline was driven by lower fuel prices which more than offset higher nonfuel prices. In contrast, prices for U.S. exports increased 0.2 percent in October following a ...


Philadelphia Fed Survey of Forecasters see Slower Near-Term Growth
Posted: November 16, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

The outlook for real GDP growth in the next few quarters looks weaker now than it did three months ago, according to 37 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The forecasters predict the economy will expand at an annual rate of 4.0 percent this quarter, lower than the prediction of 5.8 percent from the previous ...


Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions expanded slightly in November 2020
Posted: November 16, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

Business activity expanded in New York State, though only slightly, according to firms responding to the November 2020 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index fell four points to 6.3, pointing to a slower pace of growth than in October. There was a small increase in new orders, and shipments were ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Preliminary November Results fell to 77.0
Posted: November 13, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Consumer sentiment fell in early November as consumers judged future economic prospects less favorably, while their assessments of current economic conditions remained largely unchanged. The outcome of the presidential election as well as the resurgence in covid infections and deaths were responsible for the early November decline. ...


Producer Price Index rose 0.3% in October, ex Fd & Engy up 0.2%
Posted: November 13, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

The Producer Price Index for final demand advanced 0.3 percent in October, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices rose 0.4 percent in September and 0.3 percent in August. On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index increased 0.5 percent for the 12 months ended in October, the largest ...


Real Average Hourly Earnings increased 0.1% in October 2020
Posted: November 12, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

All employees
Real average hourly earnings for all employees increased 0.1 percent from September to October, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from an increase of 0.1 percent in average hourly earnings combined with no change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 48,000 to 709,000
Posted: November 12, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending November 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 709,000, a decrease of 48,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 6,000 from 751,000 to 757,000. The 4-week moving average was 755,250, a decrease of 33,250 from the previous week's revised average. ...


Consumer Price Index increased 0.2% in October, Ex Fd & Engy unch%
Posted: November 12, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) was unchanged in October on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.2 percent in September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.2 percent before ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: November 11, 2020 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 0.5 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 6, 2020.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 0.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 1 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 1 ...


Job Openings little changed at 6.4 million in September
Posted: November 10, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The number of job openings was little changed at 6.4 million on the last business day of September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Hires and total separations were little changed at 5.9 million and 4.7 million, respectively. Within separations, the quits rate was little changed at 2.1 percent while the layoffs and ...


Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine Index rose in October to 108.4
Posted: November 10, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Conference Board®-Burning Glass® Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Index rose in October and now stands at 108.4 (July 2018=100), up from 105.9 in September. The Index rose 4.4 percent from August to September and is up 6.2 percent from a year ago.

The Help Wanted OnLine® Index is produced in collaboration with Burning Glass Technologies, the global pioneer in real-time labor market data and analysis. This recent collaboration enhances the Help Wanted OnLine® program by providing additional insights into important ...


NFIB Small Business Optimism Index unchanged at 104.0 in October
Posted: November 10, 2020 at 07:00 AM (Tuesday)

The NFIB Optimism Index remained at 104.0 in October, unchanged from September and a historically high reading. Four of the 10 components improved, 5 declined, and 1 was unchanged. Although all of the data was collected prior to Election Day, a 6-point increase in the NFIB Uncertainty Index to 98 was likely driven by the election and ...


Employment Trends Index increased in October to 97.57
Posted: November 9, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) increased in October, the sixth consecutive monthly increase since May. The index now stands at 97.57, up from 96.33 (revised) in September. However, the index is still down 11.1 percent from a year ago.

“While the Employment Trends Index increased in October, this month marks the smallest increase in the index since May,” said Gad Levanon, Head of The Conference Board Labor Markets Institute. “Strong employment gains in recent months brought the unemployment rate to 6.9 ...


Consumer Credit Increased at an annual rate of 2.25% in August
Posted: November 6, 2020 at 03:00 PM (Friday)

Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2-1/4 percent during the third quarter. Revolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 2-1/2 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 4 percent. In September, revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 4-3/4 percent, while nonrevolving credit ...


Wholesale Inventories up 0.4% in September 2020
Posted: November 6, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

September 2020 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading day differences but not for price changes, were $486.0 billion, up 0.1 percent (±0.4 percent)* from the revised August level, but were down 2.3 percent (±1.1 percent) from the revised September ...


October Employment rose by 638,000
Unemployment Rate fell to 6.9%

Posted: November 6, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 638,000 in October, and the unemployment rate declined to 6.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. These improvements in the labor market reflect the continued resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to ...


FOMC target funds rate maintained at 0.00% - 0.25%
Posted: November 5, 2020 at 02:00 PM (Thursday)

The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals.

The COVID-19 pandemic is causing tremendous human and economic hardship across the United States and around the world. Economic activity and employment have continued to recover but remain well below their levels at the beginning of the year. Weaker demand and earlier ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 7,000 to 751,000
Posted: November 5, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending October 31, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 751,000, a decrease of 7,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 7,000 from 751,000 to 758,000. The 4-week moving average was 787,000, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week's revised average. ...


3Q2020 Productivity Growth increased 4.9%
Posted: November 5, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 4.9 percent in the third quarter of 2020, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, as output increased 43.5 percent and hours worked increased 36.8 percent. (All quarterly percent changes in this release are seasonally adjusted annual rates, and show what the percent change would ...


Challenger Layoffs announced 80,666 Job Cuts in October 2020
Posted: November 5, 2020 at 07:30 AM (Thursday)

October marked the lowest number of layoffs in seven months, as U.S.-based employers announced plans to cut 80,666 jobs from their payrolls, according to a report released Thursday by global outplacement and business and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & ...


ISM Non-Manufacturing Index slowed to 56.6% in October
Posted: November 4, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Economic activity in the services sector grew in October for the fifth month in a row, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Services ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Services Business Survey Committee: “The Services PMI™ registered 56.6 percent, 1.2 percentage points lower than the September reading of 57.8 ...


Goods and Services Deficit Decreased in September 2020
Posted: November 4, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

The nation's international trade deficit in goods and services decreased to $63.9 billion in September from $67.0 billion in August (revised), as exports increased more than imports. September exports were $176.4 billion, $4.4 billion more than August exports. September imports were $240.2 billion, $1.2 billion more than ...


ADP National Employment Report Increased by 365,000 jobs in October
Posted: November 4, 2020 at 08:15 AM (Wednesday)

Private sector employment increased by 365,000 jobs from September to October according to the October ADP National Employment Report®. The September total of jobs added was revised from 749,000 to 753,000.

“The labor market continues to add jobs, yet at a slower pace,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “Although the pace is slower, we’ve seen employment gains across all industries and sizes.” ...



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