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Category: Research - Topic: Economics


Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: July 28, 2021 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 5.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending July 23, 2021.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 5.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 6 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 9 ...


Consumer Confidence increased in July 2021 to 129.1
Posted: July 27, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® was relatively unchanged in July, following gains in each of the prior five months. The Index now stands at 129.1 (1985=100), up from 128.9 in June. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—rose from 159.6 to 160.3. The ...


Richmond Fed's Current Activity Index rose to 27 in July 2021
Posted: July 27, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Fifth District manufacturing activity strengthened in July, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite index inched up from 26 in June to 27 in July, buoyed by increases in the shipments and employment indexes, while the third component index — new orders — declined but remained in ...


S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices increase 2.1% in May 2021
Posted: July 27, 2021 at 09:00 AM (Tuesday)

Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for May 2021 show that home prices continue to increase across the U.S.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 16.6% annual gain in May, up from 14.8% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 16.4%, up from 14.5% in the ...


June 2021 New Orders for Durable Goods Increased 0.8%, Ex-Trans up 0.3%
Posted: July 27, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in June increased $2.1 billion or 0.8 percent to $257.6 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up thirteen of the last fourteen months, followed a 3.2 percent May increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.3 percent. Excluding defense, new ...


Texas Fed Manufacturing Activity continued its robust expansion in July 2021
Posted: July 26, 2021 at 10:30 AM (Monday)

Texas factory activity continued its robust expansion in July, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, was largely unchanged at 31.0, a reading well above average and indicative of strong output growth. Other measures ...


New Home Sales in June 2021 at annual rate of 676,000
Posted: July 26, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

New Home Sales
Sales of new single‐family houses in June 2021 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 676,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 6.6 percent (±16.5 percent)* below the revised May rate of 724,000 and is 19.4 percent ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Increased Further in July 2021
Posted: July 22, 2021 at 11:00 AM (Thursday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity increased further, with solid expectations for future activity over the next six months. The index of prices paid for raw materials remained near record highs and the index of prices received for finished goods expanded again in July. Price indexes vs. a year ago posted record highs in July for the ...


U.S. Leading Economic Index increased 0.7% in June 2021
Posted: July 22, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased by 0.7 percent in June to 115.1 (2016 = 100), following a 1.2 percent increase in May and a 1.3 percent increase in April.

“June’s gain in the U.S. LEI was broad-based and, despite negative contributions from housing permits and average workweek, suggests that strong economic growth will continue in the near term,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference ...


Existing-Home Sales increased 1.4% in June 2021
Posted: July 22, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Existing-home sales increased in June, snapping four consecutive months of declines, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Three of the four major U.S. regions registered small month-over-month gains, while the fourth remained flat. However, all four areas notched double-digit ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase 51,000 to 419,000
Posted: July 22, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending July 17, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 419,000, an increase of 51,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 8,000 from 360,000 to 368,000. The 4-week moving average was 385,250, an increase of 750 from the previous week's revised average. The ...


Chicago Fed National Activity Index Suggests Economic Growth Moderated in June
Posted: July 22, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to +0.09 in June from +0.26 in May. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made positive contributions in June, but two categories deteriorated from May. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, declined to +0.06 in June from +0.80 ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: July 21, 2021 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 4.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending July 16, 2021. The previous week's results included an adjustment for the Fourth of ...


June Housing Starts Increased 3.6%, Permits down 3.0%
Posted: July 20, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Building Permits
Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,598,000. This is 5.1 percent (±1.1 percent) below the revised May rate of 1,683,000, but is 23.3 percent (±0.9 percent) above the June 2020 rate of 1,296,000. Single‐family authorizations in June were at a rate ...


Philadelphia Fed NonManufacturing Survey suggest continued expansion in July 2021
Posted: July 20, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Responses to the July Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest continued expansion in nonmanufacturing activity in the region. The indexes for general activity at the firm level and sales/revenues both declined but remained elevated, and the new orders and full-time employment indexes both rose. Prices for firms' inputs and own ...


NBER - Determination of the April 2020 Trough in US Economic Activity
Posted: July 19, 2021 at 01:30 PM (Monday)

Cambridge, July 19, 2021 - The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research maintains a chronology of the peaks and troughs of US business cycles. The committee has determined that a trough in monthly economic activity occurred in the US economy in April 2020. The previous peak in economic activity occurred ...


NAHB Builder Confidence fell one point to 80 in July 2021
Posted: July 19, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

Strong buyer demand helped to offset ongoing supply-side challenges of labor shortages, regulatory costs, and rising prices of materials as builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes inched down one point to 80 in July, according the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market ...


Treasury International Capital Data for May 2021
Posted: July 16, 2021 at 04:00 PM (Friday)

The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for May 2021. The sum total in May of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a net TIC inflow of $105.3 billion. Of this, net foreign private inflows were $128.4 billion, and net ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Preliminary July Results declined to 80.8
Posted: July 16, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Consumer sentiment posted a monthly decline of 5.5% in early July, largely due to less favorable prospects for the national economy. This decline was caused by a misjudgement by consumers in the pace that the economy would recover as the pandemic eased. This involved both underestimating the economy's ability to reactivate supply lines and ...


Business Inventories up 0.5% in May 2021
Posted: July 16, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

The combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for May, adjusted for seasonal and trading day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,615.9 billion, down 0.3 percent (±0.2 percent) from April 2021, but was up 28.7 percent (±0.6 percent) from ...


U.S. Retail Sales for June 2021 increase 0.6%, Ex-Auto up 1.3%
Posted: July 16, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for June 2021, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $621.3 billion, an increase of 0.6 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and 18.0 percent (±0.7 percent) above June 2020. Total sales for the April 2021 ...


Industrial Production increased 0.4%
Capacity Utilization increased to 75.4%

Posted: July 15, 2021 at 09:15 AM (Thursday)

Industrial production increased 0.4 percent in June after moving up 0.7 percent in May. In June, manufacturing output edged down 0.1 percent, as an ongoing shortage of semiconductors contributed to a decrease of 6.6 percent in the production of motor vehicles and parts. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, factory output increased 0.4 percent. ...


U.S. Import Price Index increased 1.0% in May 2021
Posted: July 15, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

U.S. import prices advanced 1.0 percent in June following a 1.4 percent increase in May, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Rising prices for fuel and nonfuel imports contributed to both the June and May advances. Prices for U.S. exports increased 1.2 percent in June, after rising 2.2 percent the previous ...


Philadelphia Fed Outlook Activity continued to grow in July 2021
Posted: July 15, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Manufacturing activity in the region continued to expand this month, according to firms responding to the July Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The indicators for general activity, shipments, and new orders all declined but remain elevated. The firms continued to report increases in employment and prices. Most of the survey's future ...


Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions continued to expand at slower pace in July 2021
Posted: July 15, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Business activity grew at a record-setting pace in New York State, according to firms responding to the July 2021 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index shot up twenty-six points to 43.0. New orders and shipments increased robustly. Delivery times continued to lengthen substantially, and ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease 26,000 to 360,000
Posted: July 15, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending July 10, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 360,000, a decrease of 26,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the lowest level for initial claims since March 14, 2020 when it was 256,000. The previous week's level was revised up by 13,000 from 373,000 to 386,000. The 4-week moving ...


Beige Book: Economic Activity expanded at a moderate to robust pace
Posted: July 14, 2021 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

The U.S. economy strengthened further from late May to early July, displaying moderate to robust growth. Sectors reporting above-average growth included transportation, travel and tourism, manufacturing, and nonfinancial services. Energy markets improved slightly, and agriculture had mixed results. Supply-side disruptions became more ...


Producer Price Index rose 1.0% in June, ex Fd & Engy up 1.0%
Posted: July 14, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 1.0 percent in June, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices rose 0.8 percent in May and 0.6 percent in April. On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index moved up 7.3 percent for the 12 months ended in June, the largest advance ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: July 14, 2021 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 16.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending July 9, 2021. This week's results include an adjustment for the Fourth of ...


Consumer Price Index increased 0.9% in June, Ex Fd & Engy up 0.9%
Posted: July 13, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.9 percent in June on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.6 percent in May, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This was the largest 1-month change since June 2008 when the index rose 1.0 percent. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased ...


Real Average Hourly Earnings decreased 0.5% in June 2021
Posted: July 13, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

All employees
Real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased 0.5 percent from May to June, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from an increase of 0.3 percent in average hourly earnings combined with an increase of 0.9 percent in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban ...


NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increased to 102.5 in June
Posted: July 13, 2021 at 07:00 AM (Tuesday)

The NFIB Optimism Index increased 2.9 points in June to 102.5, the first time the Index exceeded 100 since November 2020. Seven of the 10 Index components improved and three declined. The NFIB Uncertainty Index increased four points to 83.

“Small businesses optimism is rising as the economy opens up, yet a record number of employers continue to report that there are few or no qualified applicants for open positions,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “Owners are also having a hard time keeping their ...


Wholesale Inventories up 1.3% in May 2021
Posted: July 9, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

May 2021 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading day differences but not for price changes, were $576.5 billion, up 0.8 percent (±0.5 percent) from the revised April level and were up 36.8 percent (±1.8 percent) from the revised May 2020 level. The ...


Consumer Credit Increased at an annual rate of 10.00% in May
Posted: July 8, 2021 at 03:00 PM (Thursday)

In May, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 10 percent. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 11.4 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 9.5 percent.

...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase 2,000 to 373,000
Posted: July 8, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending July 3, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 373,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 7,000 from 364,000 to 371,000. The 4-week moving average was 394,500, a decrease of 250 from the previous week's revised average. This is ...


Job Openings was little changed at 9.2 million in May
Posted: July 7, 2021 at 10:01 AM (Wednesday)

The number of job openings was little changed at 9.2 million on the last business day of May, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Hires were little changed at 5.9 million. Total separations decreased to 5.3 million. Within separations, the quits rate decreased to 2.5 percent. The layoffs and discharges rate, while little ...


Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine Index rose slightly in June 2021 to 140.3
Posted: July 7, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

The Conference Board®-Burning Glass® Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Index rose slightly in June and now stands at 140.3 (July 2018=100), up from 139.9 in May. The 0.3 percent gain between May and June follows a 0.9 percent decline between April and May. Overall, the Index is up 51 percent from a ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: July 7, 2021 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 1.8 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending July 2, 2021.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 1.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 2 ...


Employment Trends Index increased in June 2021 to 109.84
Posted: July 6, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) increased in June, after an increase in May. The index now stands at 109.84, up from 107.70 (an upward revision) in the previous month. The index is now up 28.2 percent year-over-year (i.e., compared to June 2020).

“The very rapid improvement in the Employment Trends Index in June suggests that strong job growth will continue through the summer,” said Gad Levanon, Head of The Conference Board Labor Markets Institute. “In the coming months, the US labor market is likely to remain very ...


ISM Non-Manufacturing Index dipped to 60.1% in June
Posted: July 6, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Economic activity in the services sector grew in June for the 13th month in a row, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Services ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Services Business Survey Committee: “The Services PMI registered 60.1 percent, which is 3.9 percentage points lower than May’s all-time high ...


New orders for manufactured goods increased 2.3% in May 2021
Posted: July 2, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Summary
New orders for manufactured goods in May, up twelve of the last thirteen months, increased $8.1 billion or 1.7 percent to $495.5 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 0.1 percent April decrease. Shipments, also up twelve of the last thirteen months, increased $3.3 billion or 0.7 percent to $490.4 billion. ...


June Employment rose by 850,000
Unemployment Rate little changed at 5.9%

Posted: July 2, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 850,000 in June, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 5.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, public and private education, professional and business services, retail trade, and ...


Goods and Services Deficit Increased in May 2021
Posted: July 2, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

The nation's international trade deficit in goods and services increased to $71.2 billion in May from $69.1 billion in April (revised), as imports increased than exports. The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $71.2 billion in May, up $2.2 billion from $69.1 ...


Construction Spending Decreased 0.3% in May 2021
Posted: July 1, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Total Construction
Construction spending during May 2021 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,545.3 billion, 0.3 percent (±1.0 percent)* below the revised April estimate of $1,549.5 billion. The May figure is 7.5 percent (±1.3 percent) above the May 2020 estimate of $1,437.7 billion. During the first five months of this ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease 51,000 to 364,000
Posted: July 1, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending June 26, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 364,000, a decrease of 51,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the lowest level for initial claims since March 14, 2020 when it was 256,000. The previous week's level was revised up by 4,000 from 411,000 to 415,000. The 4-week moving ...


Challenger Layoffs announced 20,476 Job Cuts in June 2021
Posted: July 1, 2021 at 07:30 AM (Thursday)

Job cuts announced by U.S.-based employers fell 16.7% in June to 20,476 from 24,586 cuts announced in May. Last month's total is the lowest monthly total since June 2000, when 17,241 job cuts were recorded, according to a report released Thursday from global outplacement and business and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & ...


Pending Home Sales Index rose 8.0% in May
Posted: June 30, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Pending home sales rebounded strongly in May, reaching the highest reading ever for the month of May since 2005, according to the National Association of Realtors®. All four U.S. regions registered both month-over-month increases and year-over-year gains for pending home sales contract transactions for the month ...


Chicago Purchasing Managers Index Slipped 9.1 points to 75.2 in June
Posted: June 30, 2021 at 09:45 AM (Wednesday)

The Chicago Business BarometerTM, produced with MNI, fell to 66.1 in June, a four-month low. Through Q2, the index surged 7.9 points to 71.1, its highest quarterly reading since Q4 1973.

Among the main five indicators, Order Backlogs saw the largest decline, with Supplier Deliveries posting the only gain. ...


Chicago Fed Midwest Manufacturing Index Points to little change in growth through May
Posted: June 30, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

The Midwest Economy Index (MEI), which approximates quarterly growth at a monthly frequency, moved up to +0.69 in May from +0.63 in April. Contributions to the May MEI from three of the four broad sectors of nonfarm business activity and two of the five Seventh Federal Reserve District states increased from April. The relative MEI increased ...


ADP National Employment Report Increased by 692,000 jobs in June
Posted: June 30, 2021 at 08:15 AM (Wednesday)

Private sector employment increased by 692,000 jobs from May to June according to the June ADP® National Employment Report.

“The labor market recovery remains robust, with June closing out a strong second quarter of jobs growth,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “While payrolls are still nearly 7 million short of pre-COVID-19 levels, job gains have totaled about 3 million since the ...



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