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Category: Research - Topic: Economics

Job Openings fell to 6.8 million in November
Posted: January 17, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

The number of job openings fell to 6.8 million (-561,000) on the last business day of November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires and separations were little changed at 5.8 million and 5.6 million, respectively. Within separations, the quits rate was unchanged at 2.3 percent and the layoffs and ...

University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Preliminary January Results virtually unch to 99.1
Posted: January 17, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Consumer sentiment remained virtually unchanged in early January, differing by just 0.2 Index-points from December. This stability extended to all components, both current assessments as well as future economic prospects. Impeachment was barely mentioned--just by 1% of consumers. While those that mentioned impeachment were also somewhat ...

Industrial Production declined 0.3%
Capacity Utilization decreased to 77.0%

Posted: January 17, 2020 at 09:15 AM (Friday)

Industrial production declined 0.3 percent in December, as a decrease of 5.6 percent for utilities outweighed increases of 0.2 percent for manufacturing and 1.3 percent for mining. The drop for utilities resulted from a large decrease in demand for heating, as unseasonably warm weather in December followed unseasonably cold weather in ...

December Housing Starts increased 16.9%, Permits down 3.9%
Posted: January 17, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Building Permits
Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,416,000. This is 3.9 percent (±1.6 percent) below the revised November rate of 1,474,000, but is 5.8 percent (±1.1 percent) above the December 2018 rate of 1,339,000. Single‐family authorizations in December ...

Business Inventories down 0.2% in November
Posted: January 16, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

The combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for November, adjusted for seasonal and trading day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,465.7 billion, up 0.7 percent (±0.2 percent) from October 2019 and was up 1.0 percent (±0.4 percent) from ...

NAHB Builder Confidence edged one point lower to 75 in January
Posted: January 16, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes edged one point lower to 75 in January, according to the latest National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). The last two monthly readings mark the highest sentiment levels since July of 1999. Low interest rates and a healthy labor market ...

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 10,000 to 204,000
Posted: January 16, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending January 11, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 204,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 214,000. The 4-week moving average was 216,250, a decrease of 7,750 from the previous week's unrevised average ...

U.S. Import Price Index rose 0.3% in December
Posted: January 16, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Prices for U.S. imports advanced 0.3 percent in December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, after ticking up 0.1 percent the previous month. The December rise was driven by increasing fuel prices. U.S. export prices declined 0.2 percent in December following a 0.2-percent advance ...

U.S. Retail Sales for December Increased 0.3%, Ex-Auto up 0.7%
Posted: January 16, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for December 2019, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $529.6 billion, an increase of 0.3 percent (±0.4 percent)* from the previous month, and 5.8 percent (±0.7 percent) above December 2018. Total sales for the 12 months ...

Philadelphia Fed Outlook Reported Activity Improved in January
Posted: January 16, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Manufacturing activity in the region increased this month, according to results from the January Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s indicators for current activity, new orders, shipments, and employment were all positive and increased from their readings in December. The survey’s future activity indexes remained at relatively ...

Beige Book: Economic Activity continues to expand modestly
Posted: January 15, 2020 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

Economic activity generally continued to expand modestly in the final six weeks of 2019. The Dallas and Richmond Districts noted above-average growth, while Philadelphia, St. Louis, and Kansas City reported sub-par growth. Consumer spending grew at a modest to moderate pace, with a number of Districts noting some pickup from the prior ...

Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine Index rose in December to 102.4
Posted: January 15, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Index rose in December and now stands at 102.4 (July 2018=100), up from 101.7 in November. The Index declined 0.3 percent from the prior month and is down 2.0 percent from a year ago.

In the Midwest, Kansas increased 2.7 percent and Nebraska grew 2.3 percent. In the Northeast, Rhode Island grew 2.6 percent and Maine fell 1.5 percent. In the South, Virginia increased 2.1 percent and Arkansas increased 1.3 percent. In the West, Oregon declined 2.5 percent ...

Producer Price Index edged up 0.1% in December, ex Fd & Engy up 0.1%
Posted: January 15, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

The Producer Price Index for final demand edged up 0.1 percent in December, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices were unchanged in November and rose 0.4 percent in October. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index moved up 1.3 percent in 2019, after a 2.6-percent ...

Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions grew to a small degree in January
Posted: January 15, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Business activity grew to a small degree in New York State, according to firms responding to the January 2020 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index was little changed at 4.8. New orders and shipments edged higher. Delivery times were somewhat shorter, and inventories held steady. Employment continued ...

Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: January 15, 2020 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 30.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 10, 2020. Last week's results included an adjustment for the New Year's ...

Real Average Hourly Earnings decreased 0.1% in December
Posted: January 14, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased 0.1 percent from November to December, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from an increase of 0.1 percent in average hourly earnings combined with an increase of 0.2 percent in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban ...

Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% in December, Ex Fd & Engy rose 0.1%
Posted: January 14, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.2 percent in December on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.3 percent in November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.3 percent before ...

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index down 2.0 points to 102.7 in December
Posted: January 14, 2020 at 07:00 AM (Tuesday)

Small business optimism ended the year historically strong, with a reading of 102.7, down 2 points from November. Seven of 10 components fell, two improved, and one was unchanged. An increased number of small business owners reported better business conditions and expect higher nominal sales in the next three months. While frequency of plans ...

Employment Trends Index decreased in December to 109.68
Posted: January 13, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

he Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) declined in December, following an increase in November. The index now stands at 109.68, down from 110.51 (an upward revision) in November. The decrease marks a 1.2 percent decline in the ETI over the past 12 months.

“The Employment Trends Index decreased in December and continues to be on a flat trend since the summer of 2018. In the current state of the labor market, a flat index is consistent with an ongoing labor market expansion. We expect job growth to remain solid and the labor ...

December Employment increased by 145,000
Unemployment Rate unchanged at 3.5%

Posted: January 10, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 145,000 in December, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in retail trade and health care, while mining lost jobs.

This news release presents statistics from two monthly surveys. The household survey measures labor force status, including unemployment, by demographic characteristics. The establishment survey measures nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings by industry. For more ...

Wholesale Inventories down 0.1% in November 2019
Posted: January 10, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

November 2019 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading day differences but not for price changes, were $500.7 billion, up 1.5 percent (±0.5 percent) from the revised October level and were up 0.8 percent (±1.1 percent)* from the November 2018 level. ...

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 9,000 to 214,000
Posted: January 9, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending January 4, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 214,000, a decrease of 9,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 222,000 to 223,000. The 4-week moving average was 224,000, a decrease of 9,500 from the previous week's revised average. The ...

ADP National Employment Report increased by 202,000 jobs in December
Posted: January 8, 2020 at 08:15 AM (Wednesday)

Private sector employment increased by 202,000 jobs from November to December according to the December ADP National Employment Report®.

“As 2019 came to a close, we saw expanded payrolls in December,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “The service providers posted the largest gain since April, driven mainly by professional and business services. Job creation was ...

Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: January 8, 2020 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 1.5 percent from two weeks earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 3, 2020. The results include adjustments to account for the holidays.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 1.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from two weeks earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 22 percent compared with two weeks ago. The Refinance Index decreased 8 ...

New orders for manufactured goods decreased 0.7% in November
Posted: January 7, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

New orders for manufactured goods in November, down three of the last four months, decreased $3.6 billion or 0.7 percent to $493.0 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 0.2 percent October increase. Shipments, up two consecutive months, increased $1.7 billion or 0.3 percent to $502.2 billion. This followed a 0.1 ...

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index rose to 55.0% in December
Posted: January 7, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in December for the 119th consecutive month, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: "The NMI® registered 55 percent, which is 1.1 percentage points higher than the November reading of ...

Goods and Services Deficit Decreased in November 2019
Posted: January 7, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

The nation's international trade deficit in goods and services decreased to $43.1 billion in November from $46.9 billion in October (revised), as exports increased and imports decreased. The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $43.1 billion in November, down ...

New York Purchasing Managers Business Activity fell to 37.2 in December
Posted: January 6, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

In December, New York City purchasing managers reported the lowest Current Business Conditions since 2016 while indicating a significant intent to hire in January, according to the survey taken by the Institute for Supply Management-New York.

New York Metro
Current Business Conditions fell after two months of moderate gains, reaching a 3.5 year low of 39.1 in December (referencing 37.2 in May 2016). The Six-Month Outlook nudged upward to 64.2 in December, rising for the third consecutive month. The six-month ...

Construction Spending Increased 0.6% in November 2019
Posted: January 3, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Total Construction
Construction spending during November 2019 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,324.1 billion, 0.6 percent (±1.0 percent)* above the revised October estimate of $1,316.8 billion. The November figure is 4.1 percent (±1.5 percent) above the November 2018 estimate of $1,271.4 billion. During the first ...

ISM Manufacturing Index Decreased to 47.2% in December
Posted: January 3, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in December, and the overall economy grew for the 128th consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: "The December PMI® registered 47.2 percent, a decrease of 0.9 percentage point from the November reading of 48.1 ...

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 2,000 to 222,000
Posted: January 2, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending December 28, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 222,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 222,000 to 224,000. The 4-week moving average was 233,250, an increase of 4,750 from the previous week's revised average. This ...

Challenger Layoffs announced 32,843 cuts in December
Posted: January 2, 2020 at 07:30 AM (Thursday)

Job cuts announced by U.S.-based employers fell for the second consecutive month, to 32,843, the lowest monthly total since 27,122 cuts were announced in July 2018, according to a report released Thursday from global outplacement and business and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & ...

Consumer Confidence decreased in December to 126.5
Posted: December 31, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® decreased marginally in December, following a slight increase in November. The Index now stands at 126.5 (1985=100), down from 126.8 (an upward revision) in November. The Present Situation Index – based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions – increased from 166.6 ...

S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices Increased 0.1% in October
Posted: December 31, 2019 at 09:00 AM (Tuesday)

S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for October 2019 show that home prices continue to increase at a modest rate across the U.S.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 3.3% annual gain in October, up from 3.2% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 1.7%, up from 1.5% in the ...

Paychex-IHS Small Business Jobs Index up to 98.16 in December
Posted: December 31, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Weekly Earnings Growth Ends the Year at All-Time High. The Paychex | IHS Markit Small Business Employment Watch shows accelerating wage growth amid tight labor market. The competitive job market continues to drive wage growth higher, according to the latest Paychex | IHS Markit Small Business Employment Watch. Steady growth in hourly earnings ...

Texas Fed Manufacturing Activity Expands Modestly in December
Posted: December 30, 2019 at 10:30 AM (Monday)

Growth in Texas factory activity resumed in December, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rebounded to 3.6 after dipping into negative territory ...

Pending Home Sales Index rose 1.2% in November
Posted: December 30, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

Pending home sales increased in November, rebounding from the prior month’s decline, according to the National Association of Realtors®. The West region reported the highest growth last month, while the other three major U.S. regions saw only marginal variances in month-over-month contract activity. Pending home sales were up nationally and up ...

Chicago Purchasing Managers Index rose 2.6 points to 48.9 in December
Posted: December 30, 2019 at 09:45 AM (Monday)

The Chicago Business BarometerTM, produced with MNI, rose 2.6 points in December, hitting a four-month high of 48.9.

Business sentiment dropped by 1.2 points to 46.2 in Q4, marking the lowest quarterly reading since Q2 2009. The index was below the 50-mark for the second successive quarter. ...

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 13,000 to 222,000
Posted: December 26, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending December 21, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 222,000, a decrease of 13,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 234,000 to 235,000. The 4-week moving average was 228,000, an increase of 2,250 from the previous week's revised average. ...

Richmond Fed's Current Activity Index fell from -1 to −5 in December
Posted: December 24, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Fifth District manufacturing activity slowed in December, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite index fell from −1 in November to −5 in December, weighed down by decreases in the already negative indexes for shipments and new orders, while the third component — employment — increased ...

Philadelphia Fed NonManufacturing Survey Suggest Activity moderated in December
Posted: December 24, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Responses to the December Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest a moderation of nonmanufacturing activity in the region. The indexes for general activity at the firm level, new orders, and sales/revenues all fell but remained positive. The index for full-time employment remained stable. The firms continued to report overall increases ...

New Home Sales in November 2019 at annual rate of 719,000
Posted: December 23, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

New Home Sales
Sales of new single‐family houses in November 2019 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 719,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 1.3 percent (±11.0 percent)* above the revised October rate of 710,000 and is 16.9 ...

November New Orders for Durable Goods Decreased 2.0%, Ex-Trans unch%
Posted: December 23, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in November decreased $5.0 billion or 2.0 percent to $242.6 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This decrease, down two of the last three months, followed a 0.2 percent October increase. Excluding transportation, new orders were virtually unchanged. Excluding defense, new ...

Chicago Fed National Activity Index points to a rebound in economic growth in November
Posted: December 23, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

Led by improvements in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to +0.56 in November from –0.76 in October. All four broad categories of indicators that make up the index increased from October, and two of the four categories made positive contributions to the index in November. The index’s ...

Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity decreased further in December
Posted: December 20, 2019 at 11:00 AM (Friday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity decreased further in December while expectations for future activity remained positive. The month-over-month prices for raw materials increased, while prices for finished products eased slightly from a month ago. District firms expected higher prices in the next ...

Personal Income increased 0.5%, Spending increased 0.4%
Posted: December 20, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Personal income increased $101.7 billion (0.5 percent) in November according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $87.7 billion (0.5 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $64.9 billion ...

University of Michigan Consumer Confidence increased in December to 99.3
Posted: December 20, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Consumer sentiment rose in the December 2019 survey to near the top of the favorable range it has traveled during the past three years, according to the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.

Since the start of 2017, the Sentiment Index has averaged 97.0. This was the second best extended period of optimism recorded in the long history of the surveys, said U-M economist Richard Curtin, director of the surveys. The most favorable average level was during the four ...

3Q2019 GDP final estimate increased 2.1%
Posted: December 20, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.1 percent in the third quarter of 2019, according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 2.0 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "second" estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was also 2.1 percent. With the third estimate for the third quarter, upward revisions to ...

U.S. Leading Economic Index unch% in November
Posted: December 19, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI)for the U.S. was unchanged in November, remaining at 111.6 (2016 = 100), following a 0.2 percent decline in both October and September.

“The US LEI was unchanged in November after three consecutive monthly declines. Strength in residential construction, financial markets, and consumers’ outlook offset weakness in manufacturing and labor markets,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research ...

Existing-Home Sales decreased 1.7% in November
Posted: December 19, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Existing-home sales fell in November, taking a small step back after October’s gains, according to the National Association of Realtors®. The Northeast and Midwest both reported growth last month, while the South and West saw sales decline.

Total existing-home sales, completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, decreased 1.7% from October to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 5.35 million in November. However, sales are up 2.7% from a year ago (5.21 million in ...

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