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Category: Research - Topic: Economics



Business Inventories up 0.4% in July
Posted: September 13, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

The combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for July, adjusted for seasonal and trading day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,462.9 billion, up 0.3 percent (±0.1 percent) from June 2019 and was up 1.3 percent (±0.3 percent) from ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Preliminary August Results rebound to 92.0
Posted: September 13, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Consumer sentiment posted a small rebound from the sharp August decline, marking the third lowest level since Trump's election. While the uptick was across both current and expected economic conditions, the early September rebound was not widespread across age or income subgroups as it only fell among consumers under age 45 and among ...


U.S. Import Price Index decreased 0.5% in August
Posted: September 13, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

U.S. import prices decreased 0.5 percent in August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, after rising 0.1 percent the previous month. The August decline was driven by a drop in fuel prices; prices for nonfuel goods were unchanged. Prices for U.S. exports fell 0.6 percent in August following a 0.2-percent increase ...


U.S. Retail Sales for August Increased 0.4%, Ex-Auto up 0.1%
Posted: September 13, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for August 2019, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $526.1 billion, an increase of 0.4 percent (±0.5 percent)* from the previous month, and 4.1 percent (±0.7 percent) above August 2018. Total sales for the June ...


Consumer Price Index increased 0.1% in August, Ex Fd & Engy rose 0.3%
Posted: September 12, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1 percent in August on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.3 percent in July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.7 percent before ...


Real Average Hourly Earnings increased 0.4% in July
Posted: September 12, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Real average hourly earnings for all employees increased 0.4 percent from July to August, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from a 0.4-percent increase in average hourly earnings combined with a 0.1-percent increase in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 15,000 to 204,000
Posted: September 12, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending September 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 204,000, a decrease of 15,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 217,000 to 219,000. The 4-week moving average was 212,500, a decrease of 4,250 from the previous week's revised average. ...


Wholesale Inventories up 0.2% in July
Posted: September 11, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

July 2019 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading day differences but not for price changes, were $499.6 billion, up 0.3 percent (±0.4 percent)* from the revised June level, but were virtually unchanged (±0.9 percent)* from the July 2018 level. The ...


Producer Price Index rose 0.1% in August, ex Fd & Engy rose 0.4%
Posted: September 11, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.1 percent in August, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices moved up 0.2 percent in July and 0.1 percent in June. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index rose 1.8 percent for the 12 months ended ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: September 11, 2019 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 2.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending September 6, 2019. This week's results include an adjustment for the Labor Day holiday.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 2.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 9 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 0.4 ...


Job Openings little changed at 7.2 million in July
Posted: September 10, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The number of job openings was little changed at 7.2 million on the last business day of July, the U.S.
Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires edged up to 6.0 million and separations increased to 5.8 million. Within separations, the quits rate and the layoffs and discharges rate were little changed at 2.4 percent and ...


NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 1.6 points to 103.1 in August
Posted: September 10, 2019 at 07:00 AM (Tuesday)

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 1.6 points to 103.1, remaining within the top 15 percent of readings. Overall, August was a good month for small business. However, optimism slipped because fewer owners said they expect better business conditions and real sales volumes in the coming months. Job creation accelerated, positive ...


Consumer Credit Increased at an annual rate of 6.75% in July
Posted: September 9, 2019 at 03:00 PM (Monday)

In July, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6-3/4 percent. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 11-1/4 percent, while nonrevoving credit increased at an annual rate of 5-1/4 percent.

...


Employment Trends Index declined slightly in August to 110.62
Posted: September 9, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) declined slightly in August, following an increase in July. The index now stands at 110.62, almost unchanged from 110.72 (a downward revision) in July. The decrease marks a 0.5 percent decline in the ETI over the past ...


August Employment increased by 130,000
Unemployment Rate unchanged at 3.7%

Posted: September 6, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 130,000 in August, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment in federal government rose, largely reflecting the hiring of temporary workers for the 2020 Census. Notable job gains also occurred in health care and ...


New orders for manufactured goods increased 2.1% in July
Posted: September 5, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in July increased $5.0 billion or 2.1 percent to $250.4 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up two consecutive months, followed a 1.8 percent June increase. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.4 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased ...


ISM Non-Manufacturing Index rose to 56.4% in August
Posted: September 5, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in August for the 115th consecutive month, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “The NMI® registered 56.4 percent, which is 2.7 percentage points higher than the July reading of ...


2Q2019 Productivity Growth Increased 2.3%
Posted: September 5, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 2.3 percent in the second quarter of 2019, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, as output increased 1.9 percent and hours worked decreased 0.4 percent. (All quarterly percent changes in this release are seasonally adjusted annual rates.) From the second quarter of 2018 to ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase 1,000 to 217,000
Posted: September 5, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending August 31, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 217,000, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 215,000 to 216,000. The 4-week moving average was 216,250, an increase of 1,500 from the previous week's revised average. ...


ADP National Employment Report increased by 195,000 jobs in August
Posted: September 5, 2019 at 08:15 AM (Thursday)

Private sector employment increased by 195,000 jobs from July to August according to the August ADP National Employment Report®.

“In August we saw a rebound in private-sector employment,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “This is the first time in the last 12 months that we have seen balanced job growth across small, medium and large-sized companies.” ...


Challenger Layoffs announced 53,480 cuts in August
Posted: September 5, 2019 at 07:30 AM (Thursday)

U.S.-based employers ramped up the pace of downsizing in August, as companies announced plans to cut 53,480 jobs from their payrolls. This is up 37.7% from July’s total of 38,845, according to the latest report on job cuts released Thursday from global outplacement and business and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & ...


Beige Book: Economic Activity expanded at a modest pace
Posted: September 4, 2019 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

On balance, reports from Federal Reserve Districts suggested that the economy expanded at a modest pace through the end of August. Although concerns regarding tariffs and trade policy uncertainty continued, the majority of businesses remained optimistic about the near-term outlook. Reports on consumer spending were mixed, although auto sales ...


Goods and Services Deficit Decreased in July 2019
Posted: September 4, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

The nation's international trade deficit in goods and services decreased to $54.0 billion in July from $55.5 billion in June (revised), as exports increased and imports decreased. The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $54.0 billion in July, down $1.5 billion ...


New York Purchasing Managers Business Activity rose to 50.3 in August
Posted: September 4, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

In August, New York City purchasing managers expressed optimism across a number of indices, most notably in employment and those that are forward looking, according to the survey taken by the Institute for Supply Management New York.

New York Metro
Current Business Conditions recovered from the 3+ year low of 43.5 reported in July to reach a 4 month high of 50.3 in August. Despite the drop seen last month, August's finding is nearly the same as the 50.0 reported in June. The Six-Month Outlook continued ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: September 4, 2019 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 3.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 30, 2019.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 3.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 4 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 7 ...


Construction Spending increased 0.1% in July
Posted: September 3, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Total Construction
Construction spending during July 2019 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,288.8 billion, 0.1 percent (±1.3 percent)* above the revised June estimate of $1,288.1 billion. The July figure is 2.7 percent (±1.6 percent) below the July 2018 estimate of $1,324.8 billion. During the first seven months of ...


ISM Manufacturing Index Decreased to 49.1% in August
Posted: September 3, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in August, and the overall economy grew for the 124th consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: "The August PMI® registered 49.1 percent, a decrease of 2.1 percentage points from the July reading of 51.2 percent. ...


Paychex-IHS Small Business Jobs Index declined to 98.01 in August
Posted: September 3, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

The Paychex | IHS Markit Small Business Employment Watch shows job growth declined again in August while wage growth stabilized. At 98.01, the national jobs index fell 0.17 percent from last month and 0.76 percent over the past quarter, contributing to a 1.22 percent year-over-year drop in the rate of small business job growth. Hourly ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence decreased in August to 89.8
Posted: August 30, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

The Consumer Sentiment Index posted its largest monthly decline in August 2019 (-8.6 points) since December 2012 (-9.8 points), according to the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.

The 2012 plunge reflected widespread fears among consumers that they would be pushed off the “fiscal cliff” due to rising taxes and falling government spending, said U-M economist Richard Curtin, director of the surveys. ...


Chicago Purchasing Managers Index rose 6.0 points to 50.4 in August
Posted: August 30, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

The Chicago Business BarometerTM, produced with MNI, rose 6.0 points to 50.4 in August, up from 44.4 in July. The index had been in contractionary territory for two months before this month’s gain.

Only two of the Business Activity components saw a monthly decline, as Supplier Deliveries saw a sharp fall, dropping to 50.3 from July’s 55.6. ...


Personal Income increased 0.1%, Spending increased 0.6%
Posted: August 30, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Personal income increased $23.9 billion (0.1 percent) in July according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $44.4 billion (0.3 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $93.1 billion ...


Pending Home Sales Index Rose 2.5% in July
Posted: August 29, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Existing-home sales strengthened in July, a positive reversal after total sales were down slightly in the previous month, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Although Northeast transactions declined, the other three major U.S. regions recorded sales increases, including vast growth in the West ...


2Q2019 GDP preliminary estimate increased 2.0%
Posted: August 29, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.0 percent in the second quarter of 2019, according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 3.1 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.1 percent. The revision primarily reflected downward revisions to state and local ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase 4,000 to 215,000
Posted: August 29, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending August 24, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 215,000, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 209,000 to 211,000. The 4-week moving average was 214,500, a decrease of 500 from the previous week's revised average. The ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: August 28, 2019 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 6.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 23, 2019.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 6.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 7 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 8 ...


Consumer Confidence dipped in August to 135.1
Posted: August 27, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® declined marginally in August, following July’s rebound. The Index now stands at 135.1 (1985=100), down from 135.8 in July. The Present Situation Index – based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions – increased from 170.9 to 177.2. The Expectations Index – based ...


Richmond Fed's Current Activity Index rose from −12 to 1 in August
Posted: August 27, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Fifth District manufacturing activity was moderate in August, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite index rose from −12 in July to 1 in August, buoyed by increases in the indexes for shipments and new orders. However, the third component, employment, fell. Firms reported increasing ...


S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices Increased 0.6% in June
Posted: August 27, 2019 at 09:00 AM (Tuesday)

S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for June 2019 shows that the rate of home price increases across the U.S. continues to slow.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 3.1% annual gain in June, down from 3.3% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 1.8%, down from 2.2% in the ...


Texas Fed Manufacturing Activity Expansion Picks Up Pace in August
Posted: August 26, 2019 at 10:30 AM (Monday)

Texas factory activity expanded at a faster clip in August, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, shot up nine points to 17.9, its highest reading in nearly ...


July New Orders for Durable Goods increased 2.1%, Ex-Trans down 0.4%
Posted: August 26, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in July increased $5.0 billion or 2.1 percent to $250.4 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up two consecutive months, followed a 1.8 percent June increase. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.4 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased ...


Chicago Fed National Activity points to slower economic growth in July
Posted: August 26, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

Led by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to –0.36 in July from +0.03 in June. All four broad categories of indicators that make up the index decreased from June, and all four categories made negative contributions to the index in July. The index’s three-month moving average, ...


New Home Sales in July at annual rate of 635,000
Posted: August 23, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

New Home Sales
Sales of new single‐family houses in July 2019 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 635,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 12.8 percent (±16.2 percent)* below the revised June rate of 728,000, but is 4.3 percent ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity declined in August
Posted: August 22, 2019 at 11:00 AM (Thursday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity declined in August, while expectations for future activity edged higher (Chart 1). The month-over-month price indexes for raw materials and finished products decreased, turning negative for the first time since 2016. Firms continued to expect prices to rise over the next 6 ...


U.S. Leading Economic Index increased 0.5% in July
Posted: August 22, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.5 percent in July to 112.2 (2016 = 100), following a 0.1 percent decline in June, and a 0.1 percent decline in May.

“The US LEI increased in July, following back-to-back modest declines. Housing permits, unemployment insurance claims, stock prices and the Leading Credit Index were the major drivers of the improvement,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 12,000 to 209,000
Posted: August 22, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending August 17, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 209,000, a decrease of 12,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 220,000 to 221,000. The 4-week moving average was 214,500, an increase of 500 from the previous week's revised average. The ...


Existing-Home Sales rose 2.5% in July
Posted: August 21, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Existing-home sales strengthened in July, a positive reversal after total sales were down slightly in the previous month, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Although Northeast transactions declined, the other three major U.S. regions recorded sales increases, including vast growth in the West ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: August 21, 2019 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 0.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 16, 2019.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 0.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 0.4 ...


Philadelphia Fed NonManufacturing Survey Suggest Activity Continued to Grow in August
Posted: August 20, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Responses to the August Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest continued expansion in nonmanufacturing activity in the region. The indexes for general activity at the firm level and sales/revenues both increased, while the new orders index fell. The index for full-time employment ticked upward. Survey responses indicated ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Preliminary August Results declined to 92.1
Posted: August 16, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Consumer sentiment declined in early August to its lowest level since the start of the year. The early August losses spanned all Index components. Although the Expectations Index recorded more than twice the decline in August as the Current Conditions Index (-8.2 versus -3.3), the Current Conditions Index fell to its lowest level since late ...


July Housing Starts decreased 4.0%, Permits up 8.4%
Posted: August 16, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Building Permits
Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,336,000. This is 8.4 percent (±1.1 percent) above the revised June rate of 1,232,000 and is 1.5 percent (±1.4 percent) above the July 2018 rate of 1,316,000. Single‐family authorizations in July were at a rate ...



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