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Category: Research - Topic: Economics


Treasury International Capital Data for February 2024
Posted: April 17, 2024 at 04:00 PM (Wednesday)

The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for February 2024. The sum total in February of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a net TIC inflow of $51.6 billion. Of this, net foreign private inflows were $36.2 billion, and ...


Beige Book: Economic Activity expanded slightly, on balance, since late February
Posted: April 17, 2024 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

Overall Economic Activity
Overall economic activity expanded slightly, on balance, since late February. Ten out of twelve Districts experienced either slight or modest economic growth—up from eight in the previous report, while the other two reported no changes in activity. Consumer spending barely increased overall, but reports were quite ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: April 17, 2024 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 3.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 12, 2024. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 3.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one ...


March 2024 Industrial Production rose 0.4%, Capacity Utilization moved up to 78.4%
Posted: April 16, 2024 at 09:15 AM (Tuesday)

Industrial production rose 0.4 percent in March but declined at an annual rate of 1.8 percent in the first quarter. Manufacturing output increased 0.5 percent in March, boosted in part by a gain of 3.1 percent in motor vehicles and parts; factory output excluding motor vehicles and parts moved up 0.3 percent. The index for mining fell 1.4 ...


March 2024 Housing Starts Decreased 14.7%, Permits down 4.3%
Posted: April 16, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Building Permits
Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,458,000. This is 4.3 percent below the revised February rate of 1,523,000, but is 1.5 percent above the March 2023 rate of 1,437,000. Single‐family authorizations in March were at a rate of 973,000; this is ...


Business Inventories up 0.4% in February 2024
Posted: April 15, 2024 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

Sales
The combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for February, adjusted for seasonal and trading day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,866.5 billion, up 1.6 percent (±0.2 percent) from January 2024 and was up 1.0 percent (±0.4 percent) from ...


NAHB Builder Confidence unch% at 51 in April 2024
Posted: April 15, 2024 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

Builder sentiment was flat in April as mortgage rates remained close to 7% over the past month and the latest inflation data failed to show improvement during the first quarter of 2024.

Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes was 51 in April, unchanged from March, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. This breaks a four-month period of gains for the ...


U.S. Retail Sales for March 2024 up 0.7%, Ex-Auto up 1.1%
Posted: April 15, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for March 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $709.6 billion, up 0.7 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and up 4.0 percent (±0.5 percent) above March 2023. Total sales for the January 2024 through ...


Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions continued to decline in April 2024
Posted: April 15, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

Business activity continued to decline in New York State, according to firms responding to the April 2024 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index rose seven points but remained below zero at -14.3. New orders and shipments both declined significantly, and unfilled orders continued to shrink. Delivery ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Preliminary March 2024 Results down to 77.9
Posted: April 12, 2024 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Sentiment moved sideways for the fourth straight month, as consumers perceived few meaningful developments in the economy. Since January, sentiment has remained remarkably steady within a very narrow 2.5 index point range, well under the 5 points necessary for a statistically significant difference in readings. Consumers perceived little change ...


U.S. Import Price Index rose 0.4% in March 2024
Posted: April 12, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Prices for U.S. imports advanced 0.4 percent in March following a 0.3-percent rise the previous month, the
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Higher prices for fuel and nonfuel imports contributed to the
overall increase. U.S. export prices rose 0.3 percent in March, after advancing 0.7 percent ...


Producer Price Index increased 0.2% in March 2024, ex Fd & Engy rose 0.2%
Posted: April 11, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.2 percent in March, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices moved up 0.6 percent in February and 0.4 percent in January. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand increased 2.1 percent for the 12 months ended in March, ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 11,000 to 211,000
Posted: April 11, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending April 6, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 211,000, a decrease of 11,000
from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 221,000 to 222,000. The
4-week moving average was 214,250, a decrease of 250 from the previous week's revised average. The ...


Wholesale Inventories up 0.5% in February 2024
Posted: April 10, 2024 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

February 2024 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading day differences but not for price changes, were $673.7 billion, up 2.3 percent (±0.4 percent) from the revised January level and were up 0.8 percent (±1.1 percent)* from the revised February ...


Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine Index increased in March 2024 to 151.4
Posted: April 10, 2024 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

The Conference Board−Lightcast Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Index rose in March 2024 to 151.4 (July 2018=100), up from a downwardly revised 145.9 in January. The 1.4 percent increase between March and February followed a 0.1 percent increase between February and January. Overall, the Index is down 7.8 percent from one ...


Consumer Price Index increased 0.4% in March 2024, Ex Fd & Engy up 0.4%
Posted: April 10, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent in March on a seasonally adjusted basis, the same increase as in February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.5 percent before ...


Real Average Hourly Earnings unch% in March 2024
Posted: April 10, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

All employees
Real average hourly earnings for all employees were unchanged from February to March, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from an increase of 0.3 percent in average hourly earnings combined with an increase of 0.4 percent in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: April 10, 2024 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 0.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 5, 2024. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 0.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one ...


NFIB Small Business Optimism Index decreased to 88.5 in March 2024
Posted: April 9, 2024 at 07:00 AM (Tuesday)

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index decreased by 0.9 of a point in March to 88.5, the lowest level since December 2012. This is the 27th consecutive month below the 50-year average of 98. The net percent of owners raising average selling prices rose seven points from February to a net 28% percent ...


Employment Trends Index increased in March 2024 to 112.84
Posted: April 8, 2024 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) increased in March to 112.84, up from a downwardly revised 111.85 in February. The Employment Trends Index is a leading composite index for employment. When the Index increases, employment is likely to grow as well, and vice versa. Turning points in the Index indicate that a change in the ...


Consumer Credit Increased at an annual rate of 3.4% in February 2024
Posted: April 5, 2024 at 03:00 PM (Friday)

In February, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.4 percent. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 10.2 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 0.9 percent.

...


March 2024 Employment rose by 303,000
Unemployment Rate decreased to 3.8%

Posted: April 5, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 303,000 in March, and the unemployment rate changed little at 3.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, government, and construction.

This news release presents statistics from two monthly surveys. The household survey measures labor force status, including unemployment, by demographic characteristics. The establishment survey measures nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings by industry. For more ...


Goods and Services Deficit increased in February 2024
Posted: April 4, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $68.9 billion in February, up $1.3 billion from $67.6 billion in January, revised.

Exports, Imports, and Balance
February exports were $263.0 billion, $5.8 billion more than January exports. February imports were $331.9 billion, $7.1 billion more than January imports. ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase 9,000 to 221,000
Posted: April 4, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending March 30, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 221,000, an increase of 9,000
from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 210,000 to 212,000. The
4-week moving average was 214,250, an increase of 2,750 from the previous week's revised average. ...


Challenger Layoffs announced 90,309 Job Cuts in March 2024
Posted: April 4, 2024 at 07:30 AM (Thursday)

U.S.-based employers announced 90,309 cuts in March, up 7% from the 84,638 cuts announced in February, and virtually the same as (+0.7%) the 89,703 cuts announced in the same month last year. It is the highest monthly total since 102,943 cuts occurred in January 2023, according to a report released Thursday from global outplacement and ...


ISM Non-Manufacturing Index decrease to 51.4% in March 2024
Posted: April 3, 2024 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Economic activity in the services sector expanded in March for the 15th consecutive month as the Services PMI® registered 51.4 percent, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Services ISM® Report On Business®. The sector has grown in 45 of the last 46 months, with the lone contraction in ...


Paychex-IHS Markit Small Business Jobs Index up to 100.85 in March 2024
Posted: April 3, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

According to the Paychex Small Business Employment Watch, the Small Business Jobs Index grew 0.18 percentage points in March to 100.85 – the first increase year-to-date – but remained below pre-pandemic levels for the first three months of 2024. Hourly earnings growth for workers at U.S. companies with fewer than 50 employees continued a ...


ADP National Employment Report Increased by 184,000 jobs in March 2024
Posted: April 3, 2024 at 08:15 AM (Wednesday)

Private sector employment increased by 184,000 jobs in March and annual pay was up 5.1 percent year-over-year, according to the March ADP® National Employment ReportTM produced by the ADP Research Institute® in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab.

“March was surprising not just for the pay gains, but the sectors that recorded them. The three biggest increases for job-changers were in construction, financial services, and manufacturing,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “Inflation has been cooling, but our ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: April 3, 2024 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 0.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 29, 2024. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 0.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one ...


Job Openings changed little at 8.8 million in February 2024
Posted: April 2, 2024 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The number of job openings changed little at 8.8 million on the last business day of February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.8 million and 5.6 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.5 million) and layoffs and discharges ...


New orders for manufactured goods increased 1.4% in February 2024
Posted: April 2, 2024 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Summary
New orders for manufactured goods in February, up following two consecutive monthly decreases, increased $8.2 billion or 1.4 percent to $576.8 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 3.8 percent January decrease. Shipments, also up following two consecutive monthly decreases, increased $8.0 billion or 1.4 percent ...


Construction Spending decreased 0.3% in February 2024
Posted: April 1, 2024 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

Total Construction
Construction spending during February 2024 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,091.5 billion, 0.3 percent (±0.8 percent)* below the revised January estimate of $2,096.9 billion. The February figure is 10.7 percent (±1.3 percent) above the February 2023 estimate of $1,889.6 billion. During the first ...


ISM Manufacturing Index up at 50.3% in March 2024
Posted: April 1, 2024 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in March after contracting for 16 consecutive months, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: ...


Personal Income Increased 0.3%, Spending Increased 0.8% in February 2024
Posted: March 29, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Personal income increased $66.5 billion (0.3 percent at a monthly rate) in February, according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (tables 2 and 3). Disposable personal income (DPI), personal income less personal current taxes, increased $50.3 billion (0.2 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity declined further in March 2024
Posted: March 28, 2024 at 11:00 AM (Thursday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity declined further in March, and expectations for future activity were again steady. Prices continued to grow at a similar rate to previous months, with a continued spread between raw materials and finished goods growth.

The month-over-month composite index was -7 in March, down from -4 in February and up from -9 in January (Tables 1 & 2). The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes. Activity for ...


Pending Home Sales increased 1.6% in February 2024
Posted: March 28, 2024 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Pending home sales in February grew 1.6%, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. The Midwest and South posted monthly gains in transactions while the Northeast and West recorded losses. All four U.S. regions registered year-over-year decreases.

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* – a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings – increased to 75.6 in February. Year over year, pending transactions were down 7.0%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001. ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence March 2024 Results up to 79.4
Posted: March 28, 2024 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Sentiment remained essentially unchanged since January 2024, solidifying the large gains from December and January, according to the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.

Consumers exhibited confidence that inflation will continue to soften, said U-M economist Joanne Hsu, director of the Surveys of Consumers. Assessments and expectations of personal finances improved modestly from last month, as the perceived negative effects of high prices ...


Chicago Purchasing Managers Index declines to 41.4 in March 2024
Posted: March 28, 2024 at 09:45 AM (Thursday)

The Chicago Business BarometerTM, produced with MNI declines 2.6 points to 41.4 in March. This is the fourth consecutive monthly decrease, pushing the index further into contractionary territory, and marking the lowest print since May 2023. We also note that this print is 4 points below the 2023 average. THE MOVE LOWER WAS DRIVEN BY A ...


4Q2023 GDP final estimate increased 4.9% and increased 3.4% Year 2023
Posted: March 28, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2023 (table 1), according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 4.9 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "second" estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was 3.2 percent. The update primarily reflected upward revisions to consumer spending and ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 2,000 to 210,000
Posted: March 28, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending March 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 210,000, a decrease of 2,000
from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 210,000 to 212,000. The
4-week moving average was 211,000, a decrease of 750 from the previous week's revised average. The ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: March 27, 2024 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 0.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 22, 2024. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 0.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one ...


Consumer Confidence fell in March 2024 to 104.7
Posted: March 26, 2024 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® was 104.7 (1985=100) in March, essentially unchanged from a downwardly revised 104.8 in February.

The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—increased to 151.0 (1985=100) in March from 147.6 in February. Meanwhile, the Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor ...


Richmond Fed's Current Activity slowed to −11 in March 2024
Posted: March 26, 2024 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Fifth District manufacturing activity slowed in March, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index decreased from −5 in February to −11 in March. Of its three component indexes, shipments remained solidly negative at −14, new orders fell from −5 to −17, and employment fell from ...


S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices decrease 0.1% in January 2024
Posted: March 26, 2024 at 09:00 AM (Tuesday)

S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) today released the January 2024 results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices. The leading measure of U.S. home prices shows that three out of the 20 major metro markets reported month-over-month price increases.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 6.0% annual gain in January, up from a 5.6% rise in the previous month. The 10-City Composite showed an increase of 7.4%, up from a 7.0% ...


February 2024 New Orders for Durable Goods increased 1.4%, Ex-Trans up 0.5%
Posted: March 26, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in February, up following two consecutive monthly decreases, increased $3.7 billion or 1.4 percent to $277.9 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 6.9 percent January decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.5 percent. Excluding defense, new ...


Philadelphia Fed NonManufacturing Survey suggest activity declined in March 2024
Posted: March 26, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Nonmanufacturing activity in the region declined this month, according to the firms responding to the March Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The index for general activity at the firm level turned negative. The new orders index remained negative, while the sales/revenues index fell to a near-zero reading. The full-time employment ...


Texas Fed Manufacturing Activity weakened in March 2024
Posted: March 25, 2024 at 10:30 AM (Monday)

Texas factory activity weakened in March after stabilizing in February, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, fell five points to -4.1, a reading that suggests a slight decline in output month ...


Chicago Fed National Activity Index suggests economic growth increased in February 2024
Posted: March 25, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

Index Suggests Economic Growth Increased in February

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to +0.05 in February from –0.54 in January. All four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index increased from January, and three categories made positive contributions in February. The index's ...


New Home Sales in February 2024 at annual rate of 662,000
Posted: March 25, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

New Home Sales
Sales of new single‐family houses in February 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 662,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 0.3 percent (±16.2 percent)* below the revised January rate of 664,000, but is 5.9 ...


U.S. Leading Economic Index increased by 0.1% in February 2024
Posted: March 21, 2024 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased by 0.1 percent in February 2024 to 102.8 (2016=100), following a 0.4 percent decline in January. Over the six-month period between August 2023 and February 2024, the LEI contracted by 2.6 percent—a smaller decrease than the 3.8 percent decline over the previous ...



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