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Category: Research - Topic: Economics - 201008



Chicago Purchasing Managers Index Stumbled
Posted: August 31, 2010 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Chicago Purchasing Managers reported the CHICAGO BUSINESS BAROMETER stumbled, marking an eleventh month of growth but indicating a decreasing breadth of expansion. Six of seven Business Activity indicators echoed the slowed expansion.

BUSINESS ACTIVITY:
EMPLOYMENT hiring continued, but at a slightly slower rate;
PRODUCTION fell to its lowest level since September 2009;
NEW ORDERS dropped. ...


Consumer Confidence improved moderately in August
Posted: August 31, 2010 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® which had declined in July, improved moderately in August. The Index now stands at 53.5 (1985=100), up from 51.0 in July. The Present Situation Index decreased to 24.9 from 26.4. The Expectations Index increased to 72.5 from 67.5 ...


S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices Show Modest Improvement
Posted: August 31, 2010 at 09:00 AM (Tuesday)

Data through June 2010, released today by Standard & Poor’s for its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, show that the U.S. National Home Price Index rose 4.4% in the second quarter of 2010, after having fallen 2.8% in the first quarter. Nationally, home prices are 3.6% above their year-earlier levels. ...


New York Purchasing Managers Business Activity Cools Down
Posted: August 31, 2010 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

New York City business activity cooled further in August, according to the survey taken by the Institute for Supply Management-New York (ISM-NY).

The Current Business Conditions index fell to a 12-month low of 55.6 in August from a revised 59.4 in July. This is slightly above the long-run average of about 55. ...


ICSC Chain Store Sales up 0.1% in Aug 28 Wk
Posted: August 31, 2010 at 07:45 AM (Tuesday)

The ICSC-Goldman Sachs (ICSC-GS) chain store sales index for the week ending August 28 rose by a moderate 0.1% on a week-over-week basis. The latest weeks increase broke an extended week-over-week drop that lasted four consecutive weeks. The fiscal month ended mixed, but slightly better than during the majority of the month. Over the last ...


Texas Manufacturing Activity Still Weak
Posted: August 30, 2010 at 10:30 AM (Monday)

Texas factory activity was unchanged in August, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, came in at zero, posting a third consecutive month of little to no ...


Personal Income increased 0.2%, Spending up 0.4%
Posted: August 30, 2010 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

Personal income increased $30.0 billion, or 0.2 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $17.6 billion, or 0.2 percent, in July, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $44.1 billion, or 0.4 percent. In June, personal income decreased $2.7 billion, or less than 0.1 percent, ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence largely unchanged
Posted: August 27, 2010 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

The overall level of confidence remained largely unchanged in August as consumers did not panic in the face of slowing economic growth and the media’s double-dip drumbeat. The bad news is that consumers expect lackluster income and job growth for an extended period of time. This “new normal” outlook has encouraged consumers to pare down ...


2Q2010 GDP preliminary estimate now 1.6%
Posted: August 27, 2010 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 1.6 percent in the second quarter of 2010, (that is, from the first quarter to the second quarter), according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In ...


Chicago Fed Midwest Manufacturing Index increased 2.2%
Posted: August 26, 2010 at 12:00 PM (Thursday)

The Chicago Fed Midwest Manufacturing Index (CFMMI) increased 2.2% in July, to a seasonally adjusted level of 81.4 (2007 = 100). Revised data show the index fell 0.2% in June to 79.6. The Federal Reserve Board’s industrial production index for manufacturing (IPMFG) increased 1.1% in July. Regional output in July rose 13.1% from a year earlier, ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing activity slowed somewhat
Posted: August 26, 2010 at 11:00 AM (Thursday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity slowed in August, and producers were somewhat less optimistic than in previous months. Price indexes in the survey were mostly unchanged.

The net percentage of firms reporting month-over-month increases in production in August was 0, down from 14 in July and 3 in June. The slowdown in production occurred among both durable and nondurable goods producing plants, with the exception of aircraft and electronic ...


DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer up 0.2%
Posted: August 26, 2010 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

For the week ending August 14, 2010, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer turned around by increasing +0.2 percent following a few weeks of decline. The barometer’s increase in the latest week is not convincing, however, as much of the strength came from indicators of production that were simply reversing the prior week’s decline, while ...


Weekly initial unemployment claims decrease 31,000 to 473,000
Posted: August 26, 2010 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending Aug. 21, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 473,000, a decrease of 31,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 504,000. The 4-week moving average was 486,750, an increase of 3,250 from the previous week's revised average of ...


New Home Sales in July at annual rate of 276,000
Posted: August 25, 2010 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Sales of new single-family houses in July 2010 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 276,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 12.4 percent (±10.8%) below the revised June rate of 315,000 and is 32.4 percent (±8.7%) below the July ...


New Orders for Durable Goods Increased 0.3%, ex-trans Down 3.8%
Posted: August 25, 2010 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

New orders for manufactured durable goods in July increased $0.6 billion or 0.3 percent to $193.0 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase followed two consecutive monthly decreases including a 0.1 percent June decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 3.8 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased ...


Refi's Up, Purchase Apps Up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: August 25, 2010 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 20, 2010. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 4.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 4.5 percent ...


Existing-Home Sales Dropped 27.2%
Posted: August 24, 2010 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Existing-home sales were sharply lower in July following expiration of the home buyer tax credit but home prices continued to gain, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

Existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, dropped 27.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.83 million units in July from a downwardly revised 5.26 million in June, and are 25.5 percent ...


Richmond Fed's Current Activity drops 5 to 11
Posted: August 24, 2010 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

In August, the seasonally adjusted composite index of manufacturing activity — our broadest measure of manufacturing — declined five points to 11 from July's reading of 16. Among the index's components, shipments declined 11 points to 11, new orders slipped three points to finish at 10, and the jobs index eased three points ...


ICSC Chain Store Sales down 0.4% in Aug 21 Wk
Posted: August 24, 2010 at 07:45 AM (Tuesday)

For the fourth consecutive week retailers saw their weekly sales decline as a confluence of factors seem to be softening consumers’ willingness to spend. As a result, for the weekly ending August 21, weekly sales slipped by 0.4 percent — the longest stretch since September 2008, according to the ICSC and Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store ...


Chicago Fed National Activity Index rebounded in July
Posted: August 23, 2010 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

Led by improvements in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index returned to its historical average of zero in July, up from –0.70 in June. Three of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index improved from June, but only the production and income category made a positive contribution to the index ...


July Mass Layoffs total 1,609 actions, 143,703 workers
Posted: August 20, 2010 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Employers took 1,609 mass layoff actions in July that resulted in the separation of 143,703 workers, seasonally adjusted, as measured by new filings for unemployment insurance benefits during the month, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Each action involved at least 50 persons from a single employer. The number of mass ...


U.S. leading economic index increased 0.1%
Posted: August 19, 2010 at 10:01 AM (Thursday)

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.1 percent in July to 109.8, following a 0.3 percent decline in June, and a 0.5 percent increase in May.

The indicators point to a slow expansion through the end of the year. With inventory rebuilding moderating, the industrial core of the economy has moved to a slower pace. There appears to be no change in the pace of the service sector. Combined, the result is a weak economy ...


Philadelphia Fed August Outlook Suggest Weakness
Posted: August 19, 2010 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Results from the Business Outlook Survey suggest that regional manufacturing activity weakened in August, after two months of slowing activity. Indexes for general activity, new orders, and shipments all registered negative readings this month. Firms also reported declines in employment and work hours. The survey's broad indicators of ...


DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer down 0.2%
Posted: August 19, 2010 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

For the week ending August 7, 2010, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer declined by -0.2 percent on top of -0.1 percent in the prior week. While the consumption side of the barometer held up with a gain in inflation-adjusted chain store sales, mortgage applications and demand for utilities, the production indicators continued to slide. ...


Weekly initial unemployment claims increase 12,000 to 500,000
Posted: August 19, 2010 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending Aug. 14, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 500,000, an increase of 12,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 488,000. The 4-week moving average was 482,500, an increase of 8,000 from the previous week's revised average of ...


Refi's Up, Purchase Apps Up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: August 18, 2010 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 13, 2010. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 13.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 12.4 percent ...


Industrial Production increased 1.0%
Capacity Utilization moved up to 74.8%

Posted: August 17, 2010 at 09:15 AM (Tuesday)

Industrial production rose 1.0 percent in July after having edged down 0.1 percent in June, and manufacturing output moved up 1.1 percent in July after having fallen 0.5 percent in June. A large contributor to the jump in manufacturing output in July was an increase of nearly 10 percent in the production of motor vehicles and parts; even ...


July Housing starts up 1.7%, Permits down 3.1%
Posted: August 17, 2010 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

BUILDING PERMITS
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 565,000. This is 3.1 percent (±2.0%) below the revised June rate of 583,000 and is 3.7 percent (±2.2%) below the July 2009 estimate of 587,000. Single-family authorizations in July were at a rate of 416,000; this ...


Producer Price Index up 0.2% in July, ex Fd & Engy up 0.3%
Posted: August 17, 2010 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

The Producer Price Index for Finished Goods rose 0.2 percent in July, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This advance followed a 0.5-percent decline in June and a 0.3-percent decrease in May. At the earlier stages of processing, prices received by manufacturers of intermediate goods moved down 0.4 percent ...


ICSC Chain Store Sales down 1.3% in Aug 14 Wk
Posted: August 17, 2010 at 07:45 AM (Tuesday)

For the third consecutive week retailers experienced a sales decline despite consumer traffic remaining steady. Overall, for the week ending August 14, retailers saw their weekly sales decline by 1.3 percent, according to the ICSC and Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index. On a year-over-year basis, the sales index continues to ...


Builder Confidence Declines Again in August
Posted: August 16, 2010 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

Builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes edged down for a third consecutive month in August, according to the latest National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), released today. The HMI declined one point to 13, its lowest level since March ...


Treasury International Capital Data for June 2010
Posted: August 16, 2010 at 09:00 AM (Monday)

The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for June 2010. Net foreign purchases of long-term securities were $44.4 billion.

Net foreign purchases of long-term U.S. securities were $33.9 billion. Of this, net purchases by private foreign investors were $16.6 billion, and net purchases by foreign official institutions were $17.3 billion. U.S. residents sold a net $10.4 billion of long-term foreign ...


Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions improved modestly
Posted: August 16, 2010 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions improved modestly in August for New York manufacturers. The general business conditions index rose 2 points from its July level, to 7.1. The new orders and shipments indexes both dipped below zero for the first time in more than a year, indicating that orders and shipments declined ...


Business Inventories up 0.3% in June
Posted: August 13, 2010 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that the combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers' shipments for June, adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,080.5 billion, down 0.6 percent (±0.2%) from May 2010, but up 9.2 percent (±0.5%) from ...


Forecasters See Slower Pace of Economic Recovery
Posted: August 13, 2010 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

The outlook for growth in the U.S. economy looks weaker now than it did just three months ago, according to 36 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The forecasters see real GDP growing at an annual rate of 2.3 percent this quarter, down from the previous estimate of 3.3 percent. On an annual-average over ...


U.S. Retail Sales for July up 0.4%, Ex-Auto up 0.2%
Posted: August 13, 2010 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for July, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $362.7 billion, an increase of 0.4 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month, and 5.5 percent (±0.5%) above July 2009. Total sales ...


Consumer Price Index up 0.3% in July, ex Fd & Engy up 0.1%
Posted: August 13, 2010 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent in July on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. (Before seasonal adjustment, the all items index was unchanged for the month.) Over the last 12 months, the index increased 1.2 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The ...


Real Average Hourly Earnings fell 0.2% in July
Posted: August 13, 2010 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Real average hourly earnings for all employees fell 0.2 percent from June to July, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This decrease stems from a 0.2 percent increase in average hourly earnings combined with a 0.3 percent increase in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban ...


DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer down 0.1%
Posted: August 12, 2010 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

For the week ending July 31, 2010, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer experienced a small decline of -0.1 percent. The decline was concentrated, however, in a large drop in demand for electric utilities as a heat wave that plagued much of the country finally broke. All in all, July’s activity picked up markedly from June when the economy ...


U.S. Import Price Index up 0.2% in July
Posted: August 12, 2010 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

U.S. import prices increased 0.2 percent in July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, following declines in each of the two previous months. The advance was led by higher fuel prices, which more than offset a second consecutive drop in nonfuel prices. In contrast, export prices decreased in July, falling 0.2 percent after ...


Weekly initial unemployment claims increase 2,000 to 484,000
Posted: August 12, 2010 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending Aug. 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 484,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 482,000. The 4-week moving average was 473,500, an increase of 14,250 from the previous week's revised average of ...


Job Openings were 2.9 million in June
Posted: August 11, 2010 at 10:30 AM (Wednesday)

There were 2.9 million job openings on the last business day of June 2010, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The job openings rate was unchanged over the month at 2.2 percent. The hires rate (3.3 percent) and the separations rate (3.3 percent) were little changed. This release includes estimates of the number and rate of ...


Goods and Services Deficit Increased in June 2010
Posted: August 11, 2010 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

The Nation’s international trade deficit in goods and services increased to $49.9 billion in June from $42.0 billion (revised) in May, as imports increased and exports decreased.

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that total June exports of $150.5 billion and imports of $200.3 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $49.9 billion, up from $42.0 billion in ...


Mortgage Applications Unchanged in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: August 11, 2010 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 6, 2010. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 0.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 0.4 percent ...


FOMC target funds rate remains at 0 - 1/4%
Posted: August 10, 2010 at 02:15 PM (Tuesday)

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that the pace of recovery in output and employment has slowed in recent months. Household spending is increasing gradually, but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business spending on equipment ...


Wholesale Inventories up 0.1% in June
Posted: August 10, 2010 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that June 2010 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading-day differences but not for price changes, were $347.4 billion, down 0.7 percent (+/-0.5%) from the revised May level, but were up 12.9 percent (+/-1.6%) ...


2Q Productivity Growth was -0.9%
Posted: August 10, 2010 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity decreased at a 0.9 percent annual rate during the second quarter of 2010, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, with output and hours rising 2.6 percent and 3.6 percent, respectively. (All quarterly percent changes in this release are seasonally adjusted annual rates.) The decline in ...


ICSC Chain Store Sales down 0.2% in Aug 7 Wk
Posted: August 10, 2010 at 07:45 AM (Tuesday)

August began where July left off for retailers as sales declined once again this past week. According to the ICSC and Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index, weekly sales were down by 0.2 percent for the week ending August 7, 2010. On a year-over-year basis, the sales index weakened a bit as yearly sales slowed by 3.7 ...


NFIB Small Business Optimism Index drops to 88.1
Posted: August 10, 2010 at 07:30 AM (Tuesday)

The Index of Small Business Optimism lost 0.9 points in July following a sharp decline in June. The persistence of Index readings below 90 is unprecedented in survey history. The performance of the economy is mediocre at best, given the extent of the decline over the past two years. Pent up demand should be immense but it is not triggering a ...


Employment Trends Index rose in July to 97.0
Posted: August 9, 2010 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) increased in July for the 14th month in a row. The index now stands at 97.0, up from June’s figure of 96.7. The index is up 9.8 percent from a year ago.

The growth rate of the Employment Trends Index slowed sharply in the past three months, suggesting that employment growth will remain too weak to keep up with the increase in the working age population. The disappointing employment numbers may indicate that the low levels ...



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