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Category: Research - Topic: Economics - 201212



Texas Manufacturing Activity Consistent with slow growth in December
Posted: December 31, 2012 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

Texas factory activity edged up in December, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rose from 1.7 to 2.7, which is consistent with slow growth.

Most other survey measures also indicated manufacturing activity crept up in December. The capacity utilization index returned to positive territory with a reading of 1.8, implying utilization rates ticked up from last month. The shipments index jumped to 11.3 after a ...


Pending Home Sales Index rose 1.7%
Posted: December 28, 2012 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Pending home sales increased in November for the third straight month and reached the highest level in two-and-a-half years, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, rose 1.7 percent to 106.4 in November from a downwardly revised 104.6 in October and is 9.8 percent above November 2011 when it was 96.9. The data reflect contracts but not closings. ...


Chicago Purchasing Managers Index improved to 51.6
Posted: December 28, 2012 at 09:45 AM (Friday)

The Chicago Purchasing Managers reported the Chicago Business Barometer was up for a third month, lumbering along since September's 3 year low. The Business Barometer was guided higher almost exclusively by a sizable advance in New Orders. In spite of the rise in the Chicago Business Barometer, five of the seven business activity indexes ...


Consumer Confidence declined in December to 65.1
Posted: December 27, 2012 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had declined slightly in November, posted another decrease in December. The Index now stands at 65.1 (1985=100), down from 71.5 in November. The Expectations Index declined sharply to 66.5 from 80.9. The Present Situation Index increased to 62.8 from 57.4 ...


New Home Sales in November at annual rate of 377,000
Posted: December 27, 2012 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Sales of new single-family houses in November 2012 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 377,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 4.4 percent (±16.8%) above the revised October rate of 361,000 and is 15.3 percent (±18.7%) above the ...


DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer Jumped by 1.8%
Posted: December 27, 2012 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

For the week ending December 15, 2012, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer jumped by 1.8 percent, following a 0.4 percent decline in the previous week. On consumption side, rebound in Chain Store Sales contributed to the strength of the consumption side index. Also on production side, continued increase in car production and rebound in ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 12,000 to 350,000
Posted: December 27, 2012 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending December 22, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 350,000, a decrease of 12,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 362,000. The 4-week moving average was 356,750, a decrease of 11,250 from the previous week's revised average ...


Chicago Fed Midwest Manufacturing Index Increased 1.6%
Posted: December 27, 2012 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

The Chicago Fed Midwest Manufacturing Index (CFMMI) increased 1.6% in November, to a seasonally adjusted level of 93.7 (2007 = 100). Revised data show the index was down 1.1% in October. The Federal Reserve Board’s industrial production index for manufacturing (IPMFG) moved up 1.1% in November. Regional output rose 7.3% in November from a ...


Richmond Fed's Current Activity Index lost 4 to 5
Posted: December 26, 2012 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Manufacturing activity in the central Atlantic region advanced for the second straight month, according to the Richmond Fed’s latest survey. Looking at the broad indicators of activity, new orders were virtually unchanged, shipments grew more slowly, and employment declined. Other indicators were mixed. Capacity utilization turned positive, ...


S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices decreased 0.1%
Posted: December 26, 2012 at 09:00 AM (Wednesday)

Data through October 2012, released today by S&P Dow Jones Indices for its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, showed home prices rose 4.3% in the 12 months ending in October in the 20-City Composite, out-distancing analysts’ forecasts. Anticipated seasonal weakness appeared as twelve of the 20 cities ...


ICSC Chain Store Sales rose by 0.7% in Dec 22 Wk
Posted: December 26, 2012 at 07:45 AM (Wednesday)

The ICSC‐Goldman Sachs (ICSC‐GS) chain store sales index for the week ending December 22 rose by 0.7% from the prior week, which continued to reflect strength from last‐minute shopping. Although the ICSC‐GS index is adjusted for calendar shifts, the unadjusted calendar comparison was unfavorable for in‐store sales through December 22, 2012, ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Declined Further
Posted: December 21, 2012 at 11:00 AM (Friday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity declined further in December, though by a smaller amount than in October or November. Factories’ production expectations were somewhat more optimistic than last month, but a higher share of firms plan to decrease employment in coming months. Approximately half of all contacts cited fiscal policy uncertainty ...


November Mass Layoffs total 1,759 actions, 173,558 workers
Posted: December 21, 2012 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Employers took 1,759 mass layoff actions in November involving 173,558 workers as measured by new filings for unemployment insurance benefits during the month, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. (Data are seasonally adjusted.) Each mass layoff involved at least 50 workers from a single employer. Mass layoff events increased by ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence plunged to 72.9
Posted: December 21, 2012 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Confidence plunged in December as consumers confronted the rising likelihood that political grid-lock would push the country over the fiscal cliff. Consumers were more pessimistic about their future finances, and more pessimistic about the outlook for the overall economy and job prospects. One-in-four consumers spontaneously mentioned ...


Personal Income increased 0.6%, Spending increased 0.4%
Posted: December 21, 2012 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Personal income increased $85.8 billion, or 0.6 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $74.7 billion, or 0.6 percent, in November, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $41.3 billion, or 0.4 percent. In October, personal income increased $7.5 billion, or 0.1 percent, ...


Chicago Fed National Activity increased in November
Posted: December 21, 2012 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Led by improvements in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to +0.10 in November from –0.64 in October. Two of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index increased from October, but only the production and income category made a positive contribution to the index ...


New Orders for Durable Goods increased 0.7%, Ex-Trans up 1.6%
Posted: December 21, 2012 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

New orders for manufactured durable goods in November increased $1.6 billion or 0.7 percent to $220.9 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up six of the last seven months, followed a 1.1 percent October increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 1.6 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased ...


Philadelphia Fed December Outlook Suggest Year-End Pickup
Posted: December 20, 2012 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Manufacturing activity rebounded this month, according to firms responding to the December Business Outlook Survey. Following reported declines in business activity in late October and early November from the effects of Hurricane Sandy, most of the survey’s measures showed notable improvement this month. The survey’s broad indicators of ...


Existing-Home Sales rose 5.9% in November
Posted: December 20, 2012 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Existing-home sales continued to improve in November with low inventory supply pressuring home prices, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, rose 5.9 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.04 million in November from a downwardly revised 4.76 million in October, and are ...


U.S. Leading Economic Index declined 0.2%
Posted: December 20, 2012 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. declined 0.2 percent in November to 95.8 (2004 = 100), following a 0.3 percent increase in October, and a 0.4 percent increase in September.

“The U.S. LEI decreased slightly in November, bringing its six-month growth rate to zero,” says Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at The Conference Board. “The LEI points to increasing risks of slowing economic activity in the near term, but the coincident economic index, ...


DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer Declined by 0.4%
Posted: December 20, 2012 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

For the week ending December 8, 2012, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer declined by 0.4 percent, following 0.3 percent decline in the previous week. On consumption side, marginal decline in Chain Store Sales was offset by an increase in MBA’s purchase index. On production side, however, weak truck production and a plunge in electric ...


3Q2012 GDP final estimate up 3.1%
Posted: December 20, 2012 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 3.1 percent in the third quarter of 2012 (that is, from the second quarter to the third quarter), according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase 17,000 to 361,000
Posted: December 20, 2012 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending December 15, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 361,000, an increase of 17,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 344,000. The 4-week moving average was 367,750, a decrease of 13,750 from the previous week's unrevised average ...


November Housing Starts down 3.0%, Permits up 3.6%
Posted: December 19, 2012 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

BUILDING PERMITS
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 899,000. This is 3.6 percent (±1.1%) above the revised October rate of 868,000 and is 26.8 percent (±1.7%) above the November 2011 estimate of 709,000. Single-family authorizations in November were at a rate ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: December 19, 2012 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 12.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 14, 2012.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 12.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 13 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 14 ...


Builder Confidence Continues Improving in December
Posted: December 18, 2012 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes rose for an eighth consecutive month in December to a level of 47 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), released today. This marked a two-point gain from a slightly revised November reading, and the highest level the index ...


3Q12 Current Account Deficit Decreased
Posted: December 18, 2012 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

The U.S. current-account deficit—the combined balances on trade in goods and services, income, and net unilateral current transfers—decreased to $107.5 billion (preliminary) in the third quarter from $118.1 billion (revised) in the second quarter. The decrease in the current-account deficit was more than accounted for by a decrease in the ...


ICSC Chain Store Sales soared 4.3% in Dec 15 Wk
Posted: December 18, 2012 at 07:45 AM (Tuesday)

The ICSC‐Goldman Sachs (ICSC‐GS) chain store sales index for the week ending December 15 soared by 4.3% from the prior week, which launched the second wave of the 2012 holiday‐shopping season. The surge followed the spending holiday lull over the two weeks after Thanksgiving. The ICSC‐GS consumer tracking survey found very strong ...


Treasury International Capital Data for October 2012
Posted: December 17, 2012 at 09:00 AM (Monday)

The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for October 2012. The sum total in October of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a monthly net TIC outflow of $56.7 billion. Of this, net foreign private outflows were $56.4 billion, ...


Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions Continue Modest Decline
Posted: December 17, 2012 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

The December Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions for New York manufacturers continued to decline at a modest pace. The general business conditions index was negative for a fifth consecutive month, falling three points to -8.1. The new orders index dropped to -3.7, while the shipments index declined six points to 8.8. ...


Industrial Production increased 1.1%
Capacity Utilization increased to 78.4%

Posted: December 14, 2012 at 09:15 AM (Friday)

Industrial production increased 1.1 percent in November after having fallen 0.7 percent in October. The gain in November is estimated to have largely resulted from a recovery in production for industries that had been negatively affected by Hurricane Sandy, which hit the Northeast region in late October. In November, manufacturing output ...


Consumer Price Index down 0.3% in Nov, Ex Fd & Engy up 0.1%
Posted: December 14, 2012 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) declined 0.3 percent in November on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.8 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The gasoline index fell 7.4 percent in November; this decrease more ...


Real Average Hourly Earnings rose 0.5% in Nov
Posted: December 14, 2012 at 08:03 AM (Friday)

Real average hourly earnings for all employees rose 0.5 percent from October to November, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This change resulted from a 0.2 percent increase in average hourly earnings combined with a 0.3 percent decline in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban ...


Business Inventories up 0.4% in October
Posted: December 13, 2012 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that the combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for October, adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,257.7 billion, down 0.4 percent (±0.2%) from September 2012 and up 3.1 percent (±0.4%) from ...


DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer Declined by 0.3%
Posted: December 13, 2012 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

For the week ending December 1, 2012, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer declined by 0.3 percent, following 0.7% jump in the previous week. On production side, despite weak auto production for the weak, recovery in electric output and also lumber and steel production brought the contribution of the production side to slightly positive ...


Producer Price Index down 0.8% in November, ex Fd & Engy up 0.1%
Posted: December 13, 2012 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

The Producer Price Index for finished goods fell 0.8 percent in November, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Prices for finished goods decreased 0.2 percent in October and rose 1.1 percent in September. At the earlier stages of processing, prices received by manufacturers of intermediate goods declined ...


U.S. Retail Sales for Nov up 0.3%, Ex-Auto unch%
Posted: December 13, 2012 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for November, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $412.4 billion, an increase of 0.3 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month and 3.7 percent (±0.7%) above November 2011. ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 29,000 to 343,000
Posted: December 13, 2012 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending December 8, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 343,000, a decrease of 29,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 372,000. The 4-week moving average was 381,500, a decrease of 27,000 from the previous week's revised average ...


Federal Open Market Committee Press Conference
Posted: December 12, 2012 at 02:15 PM (Wednesday)

FOMC target funds rate at 0 - 1/4% and ties policy to unemployment
Posted: December 12, 2012 at 12:30 PM (Wednesday)

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in October suggests that economic activity and employment have continued to expand at a moderate pace in recent months, apart from weather-related disruptions. Although the unemployment rate has declined somewhat since the summer, it remains elevated. Household spending has ...


U.S. Import Price Index Decreased 0.9% in November
Posted: December 12, 2012 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

U.S. import prices decreased 0.9 percent in November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, following increases in each of the three previous months. The decline was primarily led by lower fuel prices. The price index for U.S. exports also fell in November, decreasing 0.7 percent after remaining unchanged ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: December 12, 2012 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 6.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 7, 2012.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 6.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 6 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 8 ...


Job Openings were 3.7 million in October
Posted: December 11, 2012 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

There were 3.7 million job openings on the last business day of October, little changed from September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The hires rate (3.2 percent) and separations rate (3.1 percent) were also little changed in October. This release includes estimates of the number and rate of job openings, hires, ...


Wholesale Inventories Up 0.6% in October
Posted: December 11, 2012 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that October 2012 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading-day differences but not for price changes, were $408.5 billion, down 1.2 percent (+/-0.7) from the revised September level, but were up 2.3 percent ...


Goods and Services Deficit Increased in October 2012
Posted: December 11, 2012 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

The Nation’s international trade deficit in goods and services increased to $42.2 billion in October from $40.3 billion in September (revised), as exports decreased more than imports.

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that total October exports of $180.5 billion and imports of $222.8 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $42.2 billion, up from $40.3 billion ...


ICSC Chain Store Sales declined 0.7% in Dec 8 Wk
Posted: December 11, 2012 at 07:45 AM (Tuesday)

The ICSC‐Goldman Sachs (ICSC‐GS) chain store sales index for the week ending December 8 declined by 0.7% from the prior week, which extended into a two‐week pull back as consumers slackened their holiday‐gift completion. The holiday‐gift completion rate was behind the prior year’s pace (see Chart 2) with the average completion rate (inclusion ...


NFIB Small Business Optimism Index declined 5.6 points to 87.5
Posted: December 11, 2012 at 07:30 AM (Tuesday)

The Index of Small Business Optimism declined 5.6 points, one of the largest declines in survey history. The Index has been lower only 7 times since the monthly surveys were began in 1986. Prior to 1986, just two readings were lower, in 1975Q1 and 1980Q2. There were two major events shaping the November results, the election and hurricane ...


Employment Trends Index decreased slightly in November to 107.82
Posted: December 10, 2012 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) decreased slightly in November, the fourth decline this year. The index now stands at 107.82, down from 107.84 (a downward revision) in October. The November figure is 3.3 percent higher than a year ago.

The Employment Trends Index remains weak and suggests that employment growth over the next several months is likely to slow again. Employment growth typically lags economic growth, and with the economy expected to decelerate in the current quarter and early 2013, a slowdown ...


Consumer Credit Increased at an annual rate of 6.25%
Posted: December 7, 2012 at 03:00 PM (Friday)

In October, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6-1/4 percent. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 4-3/4 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 7 percent.

...


November Employment increased by 147,000
Unemployment Rate dropped to 7.7%

Posted: December 7, 2012 at 08:11 AM (Friday)

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 146,000 in November, and the unemployment rate edged down to 7.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in retail trade, professional and business services, and health care.

The unemployment rate edged down to 7.7 percent in November. The number of unemployed persons, at 12.0 million, changed little. ...



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