Research >> Economics

Category: Research - Topic: Economics - 201404



FOMC target funds rate still 0 - 1/4%, QE now $45 bil
Posted: April 30, 2014 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March indicates that growth in economic activity has picked up recently, after having slowed sharply during the winter in part because of adverse weather conditions. Labor market indicators were mixed but on balance showed further improvement. The unemployment rate, ...


Chicago Purchasing Managers Index up 7.1 points to 63.0 in April
Posted: April 30, 2014 at 09:45 AM (Wednesday)

Chicago Business Barometer Up 7.1 points to 63.0 in April New Orders and Production Expand Sharply to Highest Since October Employment Rebounds Amid Increased Orders and Production The Chicago Business Barometer increased to 63.0 in April from 55.9 in March, the fastest pace of growth for six months, led by sharp rises in New Orders ...


Employment Cost Index up 0.3% in 1Q2014
Posted: April 30, 2014 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.3 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending March 2014, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Wages and salaries (which make up about 70 percent of compensation costs) increased 0.3 percent, and benefits (which make up the remaining 30 percent of ...


1Q2014 GDP advance estimate increased 0.1%
Posted: April 30, 2014 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 0.1 percent in the first quarter (that is, from the fourth quarter of 2013 to the first quarter of 2014), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. ...


ADP National Employment Report increased by 220,000 in April
Posted: April 30, 2014 at 08:15 AM (Wednesday)

Private sector employment increased by 220,000 jobs from March to April according to the April ADP National Employment Report®. Broadly distributed to the public each month, free of charge, the ADP National Employment Report is produced by ADP®, a leading global provider of Human Capital Management (HCM) solutions, in collaboration with ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: April 30, 2014 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 5.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 25, 2014.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 5.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 5 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 7 ...


Consumer Confidence declined slightly in April to 82.3
Posted: April 29, 2014 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had increased in March, declined slightly in April. The Index now stands at 82.3 (1985=100), down from 83.9 in March. The Present Situation Index decreased to 78.3 from 82.5, while the Expectations Index was virtually unchanged at 84.9 versus 84.8 ...


S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices remained relatively unchanged
Posted: April 29, 2014 at 09:00 AM (Tuesday)

Data through February 2014, released today by S&P Dow Jones Indices for its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, show that the annual rates of gain slowed for the 10-City and 20-City Composites. The Composites posted 13.1% and 12.9% in the twelve months ending February 2014. Thirteen cities saw lower ...


Paychex-IHS Small Business Jobs Index Increases to 101.26 in April
Posted: April 29, 2014 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

The Paychex | IHS Small Business Jobs Index grew 0.50 percent in the 12 months leading up to April, increasing to 101.26, a new peak level, reflecting improving employment conditions. Washington had the greatest gains among the states measured, with help from Seattle, which showed the highest increase in growth rate among ...


ICSC Chain Store Sales climbed 1.6% in Apr 26 Wk
Posted: April 29, 2014 at 07:45 AM (Tuesday)

U.S. chain-store sales rose 3.1 percent year on year for the week that ended on April 26, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) and Goldman Sachs. Comparable-store sales climbed 1.6 percent compared with the previous week.

"Sales posted a healthy sequential and year over year gain as a bout of warmer-than-normal weather helped to lift seasonal demand (in the Midwest and East),” said Michael Niemira, ICSC's vice president of research and chief economist. “Moreover, despite the Easter Sunday ...


Texas Manufacturing Activity Picks Up and Outlook Improves Notably
Posted: April 28, 2014 at 10:30 AM (Monday)

Texas factory activity increased for the 12th month in a row in April, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rose from 17.1 to 24.7, reaching its highest level in four years and indicating stronger ...


Pending Home Sales Index rose 3.4%
Posted: April 28, 2014 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

After months of stagnant activity, pending home sales rose in March, marking the first gain in the past nine months, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, rose 3.4 percent to 97.4 from an upwardly revised 94.2 in February, but is 7.9 percent below March 2013 when it was 105.7. ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence has rebounded
Posted: April 25, 2014 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Consumer confidence has rebounded to near its highest level since 2007. The April level of consumer confidence was just one index-point below the post recession peak. The recent gain was due to much more positive assessment of consumers’ current financial situation as well as renewed optimism about the outlook for the national economy during ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity moderated slightly in April
Posted: April 24, 2014 at 11:00 AM (Thursday)

Growth in Tenth District manufacturing activity moderated slightly in April after rising to a two-year high in March, but producers’ expectations for future activity climbed higher. Most price indexes increased slightly, particularly for expected raw materials and ...


DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer declined slightly by 0.1%
Posted: April 24, 2014 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

For the week ending April 12 2014, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer declined slightly by 0.1 percent following two consecutive weeks’ steady rises. In the production index, steel production dropped sharply by 4.0 percent, cancelling out a 3.9 percent increase in the prior week, and more than offsetting a pickup in lumber production. Auto ...


New Orders for Durable Goods Increased 2.6%, Ex-Trans Up 2.0%
Posted: April 24, 2014 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

New orders for manufactured durable goods in March increased $6.0 billion or 2.6 percent to $234.8 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up two consecutive months, followed a 2.1 percent February increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 2.0 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 1.8 ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase 24,000 to 329,000
Posted: April 24, 2014 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending April 19, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 329,000, an increase of 24,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 304,000 to 305,000. The 4-week moving average was 316,750, an increase of 4,750 from the previous week's unrevised average ...


New Home Sales in March at annual rate of 384,000
Posted: April 23, 2014 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Sales of new single-family houses in March 2014 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 384,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 14.5 percent (±12.9%) below the revised February rate of 449,000 and is 13.3 percent (±9.9%) below the March ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: April 23, 2014 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 3.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 18, 2014.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 3.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 3 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 4 ...


Richmond Fed's Current Activity Index strengthened by 14 points to 7
Posted: April 22, 2014 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Fifth District manufacturing activity improved in April, according to the most recent survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. Shipments and the volume of new orders increased. Employment rose, while wages advanced at a slower rate. The average workweek was unchanged from a ...


Existing-Home Sales declined 0.2% in March
Posted: April 22, 2014 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Existing-home sales were essentially flat in March, while the growth in home prices moderated, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Sales gains in the Northeast and Midwest were offset by declines in the West and South.

Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, slipped 0.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.59 million in March from 4.60 million in February, and are 7.5 percent below the ...


ICSC Chain Store Sales rose by 0.4% in Apr 19 Wk
Posted: April 22, 2014 at 07:45 AM (Tuesday)

The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) and Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index rose by 0.4% on a week-over-week basis ending April 19. Sales on a year-over-year basis posted a solid 1.9% increase. This increase comes on the heels of last week's 2.3% gain which was the strongest reading in the past ...


U.S. Leading Economic Index increased 0.8%
Posted: April 21, 2014 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.8 percent in March to 100.9 (2004 = 100), following a 0.5 percent increase in February, and a 0.2 percent increase in January.

The LEI rose sharply again, the third consecutive monthly increase. After a winter pause, the leading indicators are gaining momentum and economic growth is gaining traction. While the improvements were broad-based, labor market indicators and the interest rate spread ...


Chicago Fed National Activity moderated in March
Posted: April 21, 2014 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

Led by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to +0.20 in March from +0.53 in February. Two of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index made positive contributions to the index in March, and two of the four categories decreased ...


Philadelphia April Outlook Suggest Slightly Improved Labor Conditions
Posted: April 17, 2014 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Manufacturing activity in the region increased in April, according to firms responding to this month’s Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s broadest indicators for general activity, new orders, shipments, and employment all remained positive and increased from their readings in March. Price pressures remain modest. The survey’s indicators ...


DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer rose by 0.3%
Posted: April 17, 2014 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

For the week ending April 5 2014, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer rose by 0.3 percent following a sharp increase in the prior week. Most of the increase in consumption indexes stemmed from chain store sales, rising by 1.5 percent following a 3.6 percent increase. On the production side, steel production drove up the index, increasing by ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase 2,000 to 304,000
Posted: April 17, 2014 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending April 12, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 304,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 300,000 to 302,000. The 4-week moving average was 312,000, a decrease of 4,750 from the previous week's revised average. This is ...


Beige Book: Economic Activity Continues to Expand at a Modest to Moderate Pace
Posted: April 16, 2014 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts suggest economic activity increased in most regions of the country since the previous report. The expansion was characterized as modest or moderate by the Boston, Philadelphia, Richmond, Atlanta, Minneapolis, Kansas City, Dallas, and San Francisco Districts. Chicago reported that economic ...


Industrial Production increased 0.7%
Capacity Utilization increased to 79.2%

Posted: April 16, 2014 at 09:15 AM (Wednesday)

Industrial production increased 0.7 percent in March after having advanced 1.2 percent in February. The rise in February was higher than previously reported primarily because of stronger gains for durable goods manufacturing and for mining. For the first quarter as a whole, industrial production moved up at an annual rate of 4.4 percent, ...


March Housing Starts up 0.8%, Permits down 2.4%
Posted: April 16, 2014 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

BUILDING PERMITS
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 990,000. This is 2.4 percent (±1.0%) below the revised February rate of 1,014,000, but is 11.2 percent (±1.1%) above the March 2013 estimate of 890,000. Single-family authorizations in March were at a rate of ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: April 16, 2014 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 4.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 11, 2014.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 4.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 5 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 7 ...


Builder Confidence Rose 1 point in April to 47
Posted: April 15, 2014 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes rose one point to 47 in April from a downwardly revised March reading of 46 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today.

Builder confidence has been in a holding pattern the past three months. Looking ahead, as the spring home buying season gets into full swing and demand increases, builders are expecting sales prospects to improve in the months ahead. ...


Treasury International Capital Data for February 2014
Posted: April 15, 2014 at 09:00 AM (Tuesday)

The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for February 2014. The sum total in February of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a monthly net TIC inflow of $167.7 billion. Of this, net foreign private inflows were $147.5 ...


Consumer Price Index increased 0.1% in March, Ex Fd & Engy up 0.1%
Posted: April 15, 2014 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent in March on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.5 percent before seasonal adjustment.

Increases in the shelter and food indexes accounted for most of the seasonally adjusted all items increase. The food index increased 0.4 percent in March, with several major grocery store food groups increasing notably. The energy index, in contrast, declined slightly in ...


Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions Were Flat
Posted: April 15, 2014 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

The April 2014 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that business activity was flat for New York manufacturers. The headline general business conditions index slipped four points to 1.3. The new orders index fell below zero to -2.8, pointing to a slight decline in orders, and the shipments index was little changed at 3.2. The ...


Real Average Hourly Earnings fell 0.3% in March
Posted: April 15, 2014 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Real average hourly earnings for all employees fell 0.3 percent from February to March, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This decrease stems from unchanged average hourly earnings and a 0.2 percent increase in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban ...


ICSC Chain Store Sales declined slightly by 0.3% in Apr 12 Wk
Posted: April 15, 2014 at 07:45 AM (Tuesday)

Warmer weather brought mixed results as some retail segments finally warmed up as others seemingly cooled down this past week. For the first fiscal week of April, retailers saw weekly sales decline slightly by 0.3%, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) and Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index. However, on ...


Business Inventories up 0.4% in February
Posted: April 14, 2014 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that the combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for February, adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,311.8 billion, up 0.8 percent (±0.2%) from January 2014 and were up 1.8 percent (±0.5%) from ...


U.S. Retail Sales for March increase 1.1%, Ex-Auto up 0.7%
Posted: April 14, 2014 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for March, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $433.9 billion, an increase of 1.1 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month, and 3.8 percent (±0.7%) above March 2013. Total ...


Producer Price Index increased 0.5% in March, ex Fd & Engy up 0.1%
Posted: April 11, 2014 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

The Producer Price Index for final demand advanced 0.5 percent in March, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This increase followed a decline of 0.1 percent in February and a rise of 0.2 percent in January. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 1.4 percent for the 12 months ended in ...


DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer surged by 0.6%
Posted: April 10, 2014 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

For the week ending March 29 2014, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer surged 0.6 percent from last week, reaching the highest level of 98.1 since January 4 2014. The biggest factor that contributed to this week’s barometer was chain store sales, which climbed by 3.6 percent. After the adverse weather lasted for the last few months, chain ...


U.S. Import Price Index increased 0.6% in March
Posted: April 10, 2014 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

U.S. import prices advanced 0.6 percent in March, after a 0.9-percent increase in February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Higher fuel prices and nonfuel prices each contributed to the rise in import prices in March. U.S. export prices increased 0.8 percent in March following a 0.7-percent advance the ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 32,000 to 300,000
Posted: April 10, 2014 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending April 5, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 300,000, a decrease of 32,000 from the previous week's revised level. The last time initial claims were this low was May 12, 2007 when they were 297,000. The previous week's level was revised up by 6,000 from 326,000 to 332,000. The 4-week moving average ...


Wholesale Inventories up 0.5% in February
Posted: April 9, 2014 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that February 2014 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading-day differences but not for price changes, were $436.1 billion, up 0.7 percent (+/-0.4%) from the revised January level and were up 3.1 percent ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: April 9, 2014 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 1.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 4, 2014.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 1.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 1 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 5 ...


Job Openings were 4.2 million in February
Posted: April 8, 2014 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

There were 4.2 million job openings on the last business day of February, up from January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The hires rate (3.3 percent) and separations rate (3.2 percent) were unchanged in February. This release includes estimates of the number and rate of job openings, hires, and separations for the ...


ICSC Chain Store Sales rose by 1.5% in Apr 5 Wk
Posted: April 8, 2014 at 07:45 AM (Tuesday)

U.S. chain-store sales rose 1.5 percent year on year for the week that ended on April 5, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) and Goldman Sachs. Comparable-store sales also rose 1.5 percent from the previous week.

“Weekly sales -- adjusted for the shift in Easter -- rose this past week as customer foot traffic and spending appeared to have improved in the latter part of the month,” said Michael Niemira, ICSC's vice president of research and chief economist. “With the 2014 celebration ...


NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose 2 points to 93.4
Posted: April 8, 2014 at 07:30 AM (Tuesday)

The latest Small Business Optimism Index rose 2 points to 93.4, mostly reversing the February decline but failing once again to breach the 95 ceiling that has capped the Index during the recovery. Six of the Index components improved, two were unchanged, and two were lower. The net percent of owners planning to create new jobs did fall 2 ...


Consumer Credit Increased at an annual rate of 6.50%
Posted: April 7, 2014 at 03:00 PM (Monday)

In February, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6-1/2 percent. Revolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 3-1/2 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 10 percent.

...


Employment Trends Index increased in March to 117.52
Posted: April 7, 2014 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) increased in March. The index now stands at 117.52, up from 117.01 (an upward revision) in February. This represents a 5.1 percent gain in the ETI compared to a year ago.

The increase in the Employment Trends Index in the first quarter is signaling solid job growth in the coming months. With GDP forecasted to average 2.5 to 3.0 percent through the end of this year, there is little reason to expect employment growth to slow any time soon. ...



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Founded in 1920, the National Bureau of Economic Research is a private, nonprofit, nonpartisan research organization dedicated to promoting a greater understanding of how the economy works.

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The Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission was created to examine the causes, domestic and global, of the current financial and economic crisis in the United States.

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