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Category: Research - Topic: Economics - 201412


Pending Home Sales Index increased 0.8% in November
Posted: December 31, 2014 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Pending home sales slightly improved in November and are above year-over-year levels for the third straight month, according to the National Association of Realtors®. All major regions except for the Midwest experienced a slight gain in activity in November.

The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, increased 0.8 percent to 104.8 in November from a slightly downwardly revised 104.0 in October and is now 4.1 percent above November 2013 (100.7) – the highest year-over-year gain since ...


DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer picked up by 0.2%
Posted: December 31, 2014 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

For the week ending December 20 2014, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer picked up by 0.2 percent to 100.1. This week’s barometer was driven by both consumption and production indexes. Chain store sales (inflation-adjusted basis) increased by 3.5 percent, which marked a second consecutive big gain. Electric output increased 1.5 percent. On ...


Chicago Purchasing Managers Index fell 2.5 points to 58.3 in December
Posted: December 31, 2014 at 09:45 AM (Wednesday)

The Chicago Business Barometer fell 2.5 points to a five month low of 58.3 in December as Production and both ordering components expanded at the slowest pace since July.

The slowdown in the pace of activity exhibited since October’s one year high of 66.2 has been marked, although the Barometer averaged 61.8 in Q4, a little higher than the 59.1 seen in Q3. For 2014 as a whole the Barometer put in the best performance in three years, ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase 17,000 to 298,000
Posted: December 31, 2014 at 08:45 AM (Wednesday)

In the week ending December 27, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 298,000, an increase of 17,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 280,000 to 281,000. The 4-week moving average was 290,750, an increase of 250 from the previous week's revised average. ...


Consumer Confidence improved in December to 92.6
Posted: December 30, 2014 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had declined in November, improved in December. The Index now stands at 92.6 (1985=100), up from 91.0 in November. The Present Situation Index rose to 98.6 from 93.7, while the Expectations Index decreased to 88.5 from 89.3 ...


S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices decrease 0.1% in October
Posted: December 30, 2014 at 09:00 AM (Tuesday)

S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for October 2014, shows that the pace of home prices across the country continues to decelerate although eight cities did see prices ...


ICSC Chain Store Sales unch% in Dec 27 Wk
Posted: December 30, 2014 at 07:45 AM (Tuesday)

U.S. chain-store sales rose 2.2 percent year on year for the week that ended on December 27 and included the final shopping days before Christmas, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) and Goldman Sachs. However, comparable store sales were flat compared with the ...


Texas Manufacturing Activity Picks Up Pace in December
Posted: December 29, 2014 at 10:30 AM (Monday)

Texas factory activity increased again in December, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rose strongly from 6 to 15.8, indicating output grew at a faster pace ...


DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer picked up by 1.4%
Posted: December 24, 2014 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

For the week ending December 13 2014, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer picked up by 1.4 percent to 99.9. This week’s barometer was driven by both consumption and production indexes. Chain store sales (inflation-adjusted basis) increased by 3.1 percent. As to the production side, auto and truck production climbed by 12.3 and 9.2 ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 9,000 to 280,000
Posted: December 24, 2014 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

In the week ending December 20, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 280,000, a decrease of 9,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 289,000. The 4-week moving average was 290,250, a decrease of 8,500 from the previous week's unrevised average of 298,750. There were no special factors impacting this week's ...


Personal Income increased 0.4%, Spending increased 0.6%
Posted: December 23, 2014 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Personal income increased $54.4 billion, or 0.4 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $42.4 billion, or 0.3 percent, in November, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $67.9 billion, or 0.6 percent. In October, personal income increased $49.8 billion, or 0.3 percent, ...


New Home Sales in November at annual rate of 438,000
Posted: December 23, 2014 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Sales of new single-family houses in November 2014 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 438,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 1.6 percent (±12.3%)* below the revised October rate of 445,000 and is 1.6 percent (±17.8%)* below the ...


Richmond Fed's Current Activity Index gained 3 points to a reading of 7
Posted: December 23, 2014 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Fifth District manufacturing activity grew modestly in December, according to the most recent survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. Shipments and the volume of new orders edged up. Manufacturing employment grew at a faster pace this month, while average wages and the average workweek grew at a slightly slower pace than a ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence increased in December to 93.6
Posted: December 23, 2014 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Consumer confidence reached its most favorable level in the December 2014 survey since the last cyclical peak was set in January 2007. The gains over the past several months have been primarily due to improving job and wage prospects, and more recently, to falling gasoline prices. Consumers held the most favorable long-term prospects for ...


3Q2014 GDP final estimate increased 5.0%
Posted: December 23, 2014 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Real gross domestic product -- the value of the production of goods and services in the United States, adjusted for price changes -- increased at an annual rate of 5.0 percent in the third quarter of 2014, according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased ...


New Orders for Durable Goods Decreased 0.7%, Ex-Trans Down 0.4%
Posted: December 23, 2014 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

New orders for manufactured durable goods in November decreased $1.7 billion or 0.7 percent to $242.3 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This decrease, down three of the last four months, followed a 0.3 percent October increase. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.4 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased ...


ICSC Chain Store Sales rose 3.1% in Dec 20 Wk
Posted: December 23, 2014 at 07:45 AM (Tuesday)

Estimates from the International Council of Shopping Centers showed that retailers could benefit from a last-minute shopping surge despite what the group called a “historically low” 11 percent of consumers who have yet to start buying holiday gifts. Sales in the week ended Saturday Dec. 20 rose 3.1 percent over the year-ago period, according ...


Existing-Home Sales fell 6.1% in November
Posted: December 22, 2014 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

After hitting their highest level of the year, existing-home sales slid in November as housing supply showed some tightening, according to the National Association of Realtors®. All major regions experienced a decline in sales compared to a month earlier.

Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, fell 6.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.93 million in November from a downwardly-revised 5.25 million in October. Sales ...


Chicago Fed National Activity accelerated in November
Posted: December 22, 2014 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

Led by improvements in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to +0.73 in November from +0.31 in October. Two of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index increased from October, and only one of the four categories made a negative contribution to the index ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity continues moderate paced expansion in Dec
Posted: December 19, 2014 at 11:00 AM (Friday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity continued to expand at a moderate pace in December, and producers’ expectations for future activity remained at solid levels. Most price indexes grew at a slower pace, especially materials prices.

The month-over-month composite index was 8 in December, up slightly from 7 in November and 4 in October. The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes. The slight increase in activity ...


U.S. Leading Economic Index increased 0.6%
Posted: December 18, 2014 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.6 percent in November to 105.5 (2004 = 100), following a 0.6 percent increase in October, and a 0.8 percent increase in September.

The increase in the LEI signals continued moderate growth through the winter season. The biggest challenge has been, and remains, more income growth. However, with labor market conditions tightening, we are seeing the first signs of wage growth starting to pick up. ...


Philadelphia December Outlook Suggest Reduced Activity
Posted: December 18, 2014 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Firms responding to the Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey indicated that the pace of regional manufacturing activity remained positive but decreased in December. The survey’s current indicators for general activity, new orders, shipments, and employment suggest growth; however, their values for this month were significantly lower than ...


DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer declined by 0.3%
Posted: December 18, 2014 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

For the week ending December 6 2014, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer continued to decline by 0.3 percent to 98.5. This week’s barometer was driven by both consumption and production indexes. Chain store sales fell by 1.9 percent, on an inflation-adjusted basis, mainly owing to a stagnant holiday shopping after the Thanksgiving week ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 6,000 to 289,000
Posted: December 18, 2014 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending December 13, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 289,000, a decrease of 6,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 294,000 to 295,000. The 4-week moving average was 298,750, a decrease of 750 from the previous week's revised average. The ...


Federal Open Market Committee Press Conference
Posted: December 17, 2014 at 02:30 PM (Wednesday)

FOMC target funds rate maintained at 0 - 1/4%
Posted: December 17, 2014 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in October suggests that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace. Labor market conditions improved further, with solid job gains and a lower unemployment rate. On balance, a range of labor market indicators suggests that underutilization of labor resources continues ...


3Q2014 Current Account Deficit Increased
Posted: December 17, 2014 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

The U.S. current-account deficit—a net measure of transactions between the United States and the rest of the world in goods, services, primary income (investment income and compensation), and secondary income (current transfers)—increased to $100.3 billion (preliminary) in the third quarter of 2014 from $98.4 billion (revised) in the ...


Consumer Price Index declined 0.3% in November, Ex Fd & Engy up 0.1%
Posted: December 17, 2014 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) declined 0.3 percent in November on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.3 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The gasoline index posted its sharpest decline since December 2008 and was the main cause of the decrease in the seasonally adjusted all items index. The indexes for fuel oil and natural gas also declined, and the energy index fell 3.8 percent. The food index rose 0.2 ...


Real Average Hourly Earnings rose 0.6% in November
Posted: December 17, 2014 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Real average hourly earnings for all employees rose 0.6 percent from October to November, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from a 0.4 percent increase in average hourly earnings combined with a 0.3 percent decrease in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's unchanged in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: December 17, 2014 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 3.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 12, 2014.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 3.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 4 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index remained ...


November Housing Starts down 1.6%, Permits down 5.2%
Posted: December 16, 2014 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

BUILDING PERMITS
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,035,000. This is 5.2 percent (±1.4%) below the revised October rate of 1,092,000 and is 0.2 percent (±1.8%) below the November 2013 estimate of 1,037,000. Single-family authorizations in November were at a ...


ICSC Chain Store Sales rose 3.0% in Dec 13 Wk
Posted: December 16, 2014 at 07:45 AM (Tuesday)

The International Council of Shopping Centers and Goldman Sachs Retail Chain Store Sales Index rose 3% in the week ended Saturday from the previous week on a seasonally adjusted, comparable-store basis.

The recent volatility reflects increased promotions of the season, according to Michael Niemira, ICSC research consultant. ...


Treasury International Capital Data for October 2014
Posted: December 15, 2014 at 04:00 PM (Monday)

The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for October 2014. The sum total in October of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a monthly net TIC inflow of $178.4 billion. Of this, net foreign private inflows were $166.5 billion, ...


Builder Confidence fell 1 points in December to 57
Posted: December 15, 2014 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

Following a four-point uptick last month, builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes fell one point in December to a level of 57 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), released today.

Members in many markets across the country have seen their businesses improve over the course of the year, and we expect builders to remain confident in 2015. ...


Industrial Production increased 1.3%
Capacity Utilization increased 0.8% to 80.1%

Posted: December 15, 2014 at 09:15 AM (Monday)

Industrial production increased 1.3 percent in November after edging up in October; output is now reported to have risen at a faster pace over the period from June through October than previously published. In November, manufacturing output increased 1.1 percent, with widespread gains among industries. The rise in factory output was well above ...


Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions signaled a decline
Posted: December 15, 2014 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

The December 2014 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that business activity declined for New York manufacturers. The headline general business conditions index dropped fourteen points to -3.6, its first negative reading in nearly two years. The new orders index also fell into negative territory, tumbling eleven points to -2.0, and ...


Producer Price Index fell 0.2% in November, ex Fd & Engy down 0.1%
Posted: December 12, 2014 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

The Producer Price Index for final demand fell 0.2 percent in November, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This decrease followed a 0.2-percent rise in October and a 0.1-percent decline in September. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand advanced 1.4 percent for the 12 months ended in ...


Business Inventories up 0.2% in October
Posted: December 11, 2014 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that the combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for October, adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,350.9 billion, down 0.1 percent (±0.3%)* from September 2014, but were up 3.4 percent (±0.5%) from ...


DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer declined by 0.2%
Posted: December 11, 2014 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

For the week ending November 29 2014, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer declined by 0.2 percent to 98.8 after three weeks of positive growth. This week’s barometer was driven by both consumption and production indexes. Chain store sales fell by 1.8 percent, mainly owing to weak performance in department and non-apparel speciality ...


U.S. Import Price Index declined 1.5% in November
Posted: December 11, 2014 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

U.S. import prices declined 1.5 percent in November, after falling 1.2 percent in October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Both decreases were driven by declining fuel prices. The price index for U.S. exports fell 1.0 percent in November following a 0.9-percent drop the ...


U.S. Retail Sales for November increase 0.7%, Ex-Auto up 0.5%
Posted: December 11, 2014 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for November, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $449.3 billion, an increase of 0.7 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month, and 5.1 percent (±0.9%) above November 2013. ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 3,000 to 294,000
Posted: December 11, 2014 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending December 6, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 294,000, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 297,000. The 4-week moving average was 299,250, an increase of 250 from the previous week's unrevised average of 299,000. There were no special factors impacting this week's ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: December 10, 2014 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 7.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 5, 2014.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 7.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 52 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 13 ...


Wholesale Inventories up 0.4% in October
Posted: December 9, 2014 at 10:00 PM (Tuesday)

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that October 2014 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading-day differences but not for price changes, were $454.6 billion, up 0.2 percent (+/-0.9) from the revised September level and were up 4.3 percent ...


Job Openings were 4.8 million in October
Posted: December 9, 2014 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

There were 4.8 million job openings on the last business day of October, little changed from 4.7 million in September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Hires (5.1 million) and separations (4.8 million) were steady in October. Within separations, the quits rate (1.9 percent) was little changed and the layoffs and discharges ...


ICSC Chain Store Sales decreased by 1.5% in Dec 6 Wk
Posted: December 9, 2014 at 07:45 AM (Tuesday)

The International Council of Shopping Centers and Goldman Sachs Retail Chain Store Sales Index fell 1.5% in the week ended Saturday from the previous week on a seasonally adjusted, comparable-store basis.

On a year-to-year basis, the weekly reading increased 2.9%. ...


NFIB Small Business Optimism Index gained 2.0 points to 98.1
Posted: December 9, 2014 at 07:30 AM (Tuesday)

The Small Business Optimism Index gained 2.0 points, taking the Index to its highest level since February 2007. The average of the Index from 1974Q4 to 2014 to date is 98, which includes all the Great Recession readings. What didn’t improve were the four “hard” Index components: job creation plans, plans for capital outlays, job openings ...


Employment Trends Index increased in November to 123.24
Posted: December 8, 2014 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) increased in November. The index now stands at 123.24, up from 122.8 (a downward revision) in October. This represents a 6.1 percent gain in the ETI compared to a year ago.

The Employment Trends Index increased for the 11th straight month in November, and recent solid improvements suggest that strong job growth is likely to continue into early next year. We will probably reach the natural rate of unemployment, 5.5 percent, within a few months, ...


Consumer Credit Increased at an annual rate of 5.00%
Posted: December 5, 2014 at 03:00 PM (Friday)

In October, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5 percent. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 1-1/4 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 6-1/4 percent.

...


New orders for manufactured goods decreased 0.7%
Posted: December 5, 2014 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

New orders for manufactured goods in October, down three consecutive months, decreased $3.3 billion or 0.7 percent to $496.6 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 0.5 percent September decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased ...



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