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Category: Research - Topic: Economics - 201602



Texas Manufacturing Activity remained negative but edged up
Posted: February 29, 2016 at 10:30 AM (Monday)

For this month’s survey, Texas business executives were asked supplemental questions on employment expectations and the labor market. Results for these questions from the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS), Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey (TSSOS) and Texas Retail Outlook Survey (TROS) have been released together. Read Special ...


Pending Home Sales Index declined 2.5% in January
Posted: February 29, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

Following the highest average year for the index in nearly a decade, pending home sales declined to begin 2016 but remained slightly higher than a year ago, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Only the South saw an uptick in contract activity in January.

The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, declined 2.5 percent to 106.0 in January from an upwardly revised 108.7 in December but is still 1.4 percent above January 2015 (104.5). Although the index has increased year-over-year ...


Chicago Purchasing Managers Index recoiled 8.0 points to 47.6 in February
Posted: February 29, 2016 at 09:45 AM (Monday)

The Chicago Business Barometer recoiled 8.0 points to 47.6 in February following a sharp increase to 55.6 in the previous month, led by significant declines in Production and New Orders.

Four of the five Barometer components declined between January and February, with only Supplier Deliveries posting an increase on the month. While the latest fall left the Barometer running a little below the 12-month average of 50.1, following significant weakness in Q4 ...


Personal Income increased 0.5%, Spending increased 0.5%
Posted: February 26, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Personal income increased $79.6 billion, or 0.5 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $63.5 billion, or 0.5 percent, in January, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $63.0 billion, or 0.5 percent. In December, personal income increased $45.6 billion, or 0.3 percent, ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence slipped in February to 91.7
Posted: February 26, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Consumer confidence has remained largely unchanged in the past few months, with the February reading barely different than last month (-0.3%) or three months ago (+0.4%). The overall stability, however, reflects gains in personal finances being offset by weaker conditions in the overall economy. The strength in personal finances has been ...


4Q2015 GDP preliminary estimate increased 1.0%
Posted: February 26, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Real gross domestic product -- the value of the goods and services produced by the nation’s economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production, adjusted for price changes -- increased at an annual rate of 1.0 percent in the fourth quarter of 2015, according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity declined further in February
Posted: February 25, 2016 at 11:00 AM (Thursday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity declined further in February, while producers’ expectations for future activity remained slightly positive. Price indexes were mixed, but most remained in negative territory.

The month-over-month composite index was -12 in February, its lowest level since 2009, down from -9 in January and December (Tables 1 & 2, Chart). The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials ...


BTMU U.S. Business Barometer rose by 0.3%
Posted: February 25, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

For the week ending February 13 2016, the BTMU U.S. Business Barometer rose by 0.3 percent to 97.7. This week’s gain was driven by both consumption and production indexes. Chain store sales, for instance, increased by 2.3 percent following a loss of 2.3 percent in the previous week. As to the production side, electric output and auto ...


January New Orders for Durable Goods increased 4.9%, Ex-Trans up 1.8%
Posted: February 25, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

New orders for manufactured durable goods in January increased $11.1 billion or 4.9 percent to $237.5 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up following two consecutive monthly decreases, followed a 4.6 percent December decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 1.8 percent. Excluding defense, new ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase 10,000 to 272,000
Posted: February 25, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending February 20, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 272,000, an increase of 10,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 262,000. The 4-week moving average was 272,000, a decrease of 1,250 from the previous week's unrevised average of 273,250. There were no special factors impacting this ...


New Home Sales in January at annual rate of 494,000
Posted: February 24, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Sales of new single-family houses in January 2016 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 494,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 9.2 percent (±13.5%)* below the revised December rate of 544,000 and is 5.2 percent (±12.6%)* below the ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: February 24, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 4.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 19, 2016. This week's results include an adjustment to account for the President's ...


Consumer Confidence declined in February to 92.2
Posted: February 23, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had increased moderately in January, declined in February. The Index now stands at 92.2 (1985=100), down from 97.8 in January. The Present Situation Index declined from 116.6 to 112.1, while the Expectations Index decreased from 85.3 to 78.9 ...


Existing-Home Sales crept 0.4% forward in January
Posted: February 23, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Existing-home sales crept forward in January to the highest annual rate in six months, and subpar supply levels propelled price growth to the fastest increase since last April, according to the National Association of Realtors®. The West was the only region to see a decline in sales ...


Richmond Fed's Current Activity Index softened 6 points to a reading of −4
Posted: February 23, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Fifth District manufacturing activity slowed in February, according to the most recent survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. Shipments and the volume of new orders decreased modestly this month. Manufacturing hiring continued to increase at a modest pace, while average wages grew mildly and the average workweek lengthened ...


S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices gained 0.1% in December
Posted: February 23, 2016 at 09:00 AM (Tuesday)

S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for December 2015 show that home prices continued their rise across the country over the last 12 months.

Year-over-Year
The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, recorded a slightly higher year-over-year gain with a 5.4% annual increase in December 2015 versus a 5.2% increase in November 2015. The 10-City Composite increased ...


Philadelphia NonManufacturing Activity at a slow pace of growth
Posted: February 23, 2016 at 08:43 AM (Tuesday)

The respondents to this month's Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey reported a slow pace of growth for current general business activity in the region. The assessments of firm-level activity were more optimistic: The February diffusion index for current general activity at the firm level was higher than the diffusion index for the region ...


Chicago Fed National Activity picked up in January
Posted: February 22, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

Led by improvements in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to +0.28 in January from –0.34 in December. Two of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index increased from December, and two of the four categories made positive contributions to the index ...


Consumer Price Index unchanged% in January, Ex Fd & Engy rose 0.3%
Posted: February 19, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) was unchanged in January on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.4 percent before seasonal adjustment.

An increase in the index for all items less food and energy offset a decline in the energy index to lead to the seasonally adjusted all items index being unchanged. The energy index fell 2.8 percent as all of its major component indexes declined. The index for all items ...


Real Average Hourly Earnings increased 0.4% in January
Posted: February 19, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Real average hourly earnings for all employees increased 0.4 percent from December to January, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from a 0.5-percent increase in average hourly earnings combined with no change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban ...


U.S. Leading Economic Index declined 0.2% in January
Posted: February 18, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. declined 0.2 percent in January to 123.2 (2010 = 100), following a 0.3 percent decrease in December and a 0.5 percent increase in November.

“The U.S. LEI fell slightly in January, driven primarily by large declines in stock prices and further weakness in initial claims for unemployment insurance,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “Despite ...


Philadelphia January Outlook Suggest Continued Weak Activity
Posted: February 18, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Firms responding to the Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey reported continued weakness in business conditions this month. The indicator for general activity remained slightly negative this month, edging up only marginally from its reading in January. Other indicators offered mixed signals: The shipments index remained positive, but new ...


BTMU U.S. Business Barometer dropped by 0.5%
Posted: February 18, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

For the week ending February 6 2016, the BTMU U.S. Business Barometer dropped by 0.5 percent to 97.4. This week’s loss was driven by both consumption and production indexes. Chain store sales, for instance, dipped by 2.6 percent following a gain of 1.3 percent in the previous week. As to the production side, electric output and auto ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 7,000 to 262,000
Posted: February 18, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending February 13, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 262,000, a decrease of 7,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 269,000. The 4-week moving average was 273,250, a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week's unrevised average of 281,250. There were no special factors impacting this week's ...


Industrial Production increased 0.9%
Capacity Utilization increased to 77.1%

Posted: February 17, 2016 at 09:15 AM (Wednesday)

Industrial production increased 0.9 percent in January after decreasing 0.7 percent in December. A storm late in the month likely held down production in January by a small amount. The index for utilities jumped 5.4 percent; demand for heating moved up markedly after having been suppressed by unseasonably warm weather in December. ...


Producer Price Index advanced 0.1% in January, ex Fd & Engy up 0.2%
Posted: February 17, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

The Producer Price Index for final demand advanced 0.1 percent in January, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices decreased 0.2 percent in December and advanced 0.4 percent in November. On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index declined 0.2 percent for the 12 months ended ...


January Housing Starts down 3.8%, Permits down 0.2%
Posted: February 17, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

BUILDING PERMITS
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,202,000. This is 0.2 percent (±0.5%) below the revised December rate of 1,204,000, but is 13.5 percent (±1.5%) above the January 2015 estimate of 1,059,000. Single-family authorizations in January were at a ...


Treasury International Capital Data for December 2015
Posted: February 16, 2016 at 04:00 PM (Tuesday)

The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for December 2015. The sum total in December of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a monthly net TIC outflow of $114.0 billion. Of this, net foreign private outflows were $88.5 ...


Builder Confidence fell three points to 58 in February
Posted: February 16, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes fell three points to 58 in February from an upwardly revised January reading of 61 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI).

“Though builders report the dip in confidence this month is partly attributable to the high cost and lack of availability of lots and labor, they are still positive about the housing market,” said NAHB Chairman Ed Brady, a home builder and developer from Bloomington, Ill. ...


Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions edged up February
Posted: February 16, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

The February 2016 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that business activity continued to decline for New York manufacturers. The headline general business conditions index edged up three points, but remained firmly in negative territory at -16.6. The new orders and shipments indexes indicated an ongoing decline in both orders ...


Business Inventories up 0.1% in December
Posted: February 12, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that the combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for December, adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,302.3 billion, down 0.6 percent (±0.3%) from November 2015 and was down 2.7 percent (±0.5%) from ...


Forecasters Predict Lower Growth over the Next Three Years
Posted: February 12, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

The economy looks weaker now than it did three months ago, according to 40 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The forecasters predict real GDP will grow at an annual rate of 2.0 percent this quarter and 2.5 percent next quarter. On an annual-average over annual-average basis, real GDP will grow 2.1 percent in ...


U.S. Import Price Index declined 1.1% in January
Posted: February 12, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

In January, prices for U.S. imports decreased 1.1 percent for the second consecutive month, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. In both months, the declines were primarily driven by lower fuel prices. U.S. export prices also fell in January, decreasing 0.8 percent. The decline followed a 1.1-percent drop the ...


U.S. Retail Sales for January increase 0.2%, Ex-Auto up 0.1%
Posted: February 12, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for January, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $449.9 billion, an increase of 0.2 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month, and 3.4 percent (±0.7%) above January 2015. ...


BTMU U.S. Business Barometer dropped by 0.2%
Posted: February 11, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

For the week ending January 30 2016, the BTMU U.S. Business Barometer dropped by 0.2 percent to 98.0, following a gain of 0.4 percent in the previous week. This week’s loss was primarily driven by poor performances on the production side. In fact, all production indexes except truck production recorded losses. For instance, electric output ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 16,000 to 269,000
Posted: February 11, 2016 at 08:46 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending February 6, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 269,000, a decrease of 16,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 285,000. The 4-week moving average was 281,250, a decrease of 3,500 from the previous week's unrevised average of 284,750. There were no special factors impacting this week's ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: February 10, 2016 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 9.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 5, 2016.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 9.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 12 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 16 ...


Wholesale Inventories down 0.1% in December
Posted: February 9, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that December 2015 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading-day differences but not for price changes, were $440.0 billion, down 0.3 percent (+/-0.9%) from the revised November level and were down 4.5 ...


Job Openings increased to 5.6 million in December
Posted: February 9, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The number of job openings increased to 5.6 million on the last business day of December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Hires and separations were little changed at 5.4 million and 5.1 million, respectively. Within separations, the quits rate was 2.1 percent, and the layoffs and discharges rate was 1.1 percent. This ...


NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 1.3 points to 93.9
Posted: February 9, 2016 at 07:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Index of Small Business Optimism fell 1.3 points from December, falling to 93.9. Neither the tumultuous stock market nor the Federal Reserve’s rate hike left much of a mark on small business owners beyond a frown in the Index represented by a further weakening of expectations for business conditions and expected real sales volumes. Those ...


Employment Trends Index Increased in January to 128.93
Posted: February 8, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) increased in January. The index now stands at 128.93, up from 128.71 in December (a downward revision). The change represents a 1.9 percent gain in the ETI compared to a year ago.

“The Employment Trends Index rose for the second month in a row, reducing the likelihood of further slowing in employment growth,” said Gad Levanon, Managing Director of Macroeconomic and Labor Market Research at The Conference Board. “However, the temporary help industry ...


Consumer Credit Increased at an annual rate of 7.25%
Posted: February 5, 2016 at 03:00 PM (Friday)

Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5-3/4 percent during the fourth quarter. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 5-1/4 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at a seasonally adjusted rate of 6 percent. In December, consumer credit increased at an annual rate of ...


January Employment increased by 151,000
Unemployment Rate little changed at 4.9%

Posted: February 5, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 151,000 in January, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in several industries, led by retail trade, food services and drinking places, health care, and manufacturing. Employment declined in private ...


Goods and Services Deficit Increased in December 2015
Posted: February 5, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

The Nation's international trade deficit in goods and services increased to $43.4 billion in December from $42.2 billion in November (revised), as exports decreased and imports increased.

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that the goods and services deficit was $43.4 billion in December, up $1.1 billion from $42.2 billion in November, revised. December exports were $181.5 ...


BTMU U.S. Business Barometer rose by 0.4%
Posted: February 4, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

For the week ending January 23 2016, the BTMU U.S. Business Barometer rose by 0.4 percent to 98.2, extending the positive trend for three weeks in a row. This week’s gain was driven by both consumption and production indexes. MBA’s purchase index, for instance, increased by 4.6 percent following a loss of 1.6 percent in the previous week; ...


New orders for manufactured goods decreased 2.9% in December
Posted: February 4, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

New orders for manufactured goods in December, down four of the last five months, decreased $13.5 billion or 2.9 percent to $456.5 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 0.7 percent November decrease.

Shipments, down eight of the last nine months, decreased $6.8 billion or 1.4 percent to $467.0 billion. This followed a 0.1 percent November decrease. ...


4Q2015 Productivity Growth Decreased 3.0%
Posted: February 4, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity decreased at a 3.0-percent annual rate during the fourth quarter of 2015, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, as output increased 0.1 percent and hours worked increased 3.3 percent. (All quarterly percent changes in this release are seasonally adjusted annual rates.) From the ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase 8,000 to 285,000
Posted: February 4, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending January 30, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 285,000, an increase of 8,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 1,000 from 278,000 to 277,000. The 4-week moving average was 284,750, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week's revised average. ...


Challenger Layoffs rose to 75,114 in January
Posted: February 4, 2016 at 07:30 AM (Thursday)

Heavy downsizing in the retail and energy sectors pushed monthly job cut announcements to their highest level since last summer, according to the latest report on monthly job cuts released Thursday by global outplacement consultancy Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.

In all, US-based employers reported 75,114 planned job cuts to kick off 2016. That is a 218 percent increase from a 15-year low of 23,622 in December. January was 42 percent higher than the same month a year ago, when employers announced 50,041 job cuts. ...


ISM Non-Manufacturing Index slower growth rate of 53.5% in January
Posted: February 3, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in January for the 72nd consecutive month, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The NMI® registered 53.5 percent in January, 2.3 percentage points lower than the seasonally adjusted December reading of 55.8 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a slower rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index decreased ...



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