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Category: Research - Topic: Economics - 201609



University of Michigan Consumer Confidence rose in September to 91.2
Posted: September 30, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Consumers became a bit more optimistic about prospects for the economy as well as their own personal finances in the latest survey. Consumer sentiment has remained at high levels throughout the past year, with only small month-to-month variations. Rising incomes and declines in food and fuel prices were responsible for the recent confidence ...


Chicago Purchasing Managers Index increased 2.7 point to 54.2 in September
Posted: September 30, 2016 at 09:45 AM (Friday)

The MNI Chicago Business Barometer increased 2.7 points to 54.2 in September from 51.5 in August, recovering most of lost ground experienced in the previous month.

On a trend basis, the MNI Chicago Report paints a slightly better picture than earlier in the year with the Barometer averaging 53.8 in Q3, up from 52.2 in Q2 and the highest quarterly level since Q4 2014. ...


Personal Income increased 0.2%, Spending increased 0.1%
Posted: September 30, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Personal income increased $39.3 billion (0.2 percent) in August according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $31.9 billion (0.2 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $6.2 billion (less than ...


Pending Home Sales Index declined 2.4% in August
Posted: September 29, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

After bouncing back in July, pending home sales cooled in August for the third time in four months and to their lowest level since January, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, declined 2.4 percent to 108.5 in August from a downwardly revised 111.2 in July and is now slightly lower (0.2 percent) than August 2015 (108.7). With last month's decline, the index is ...


2Q2016 GDP final estimate increased 1.4%
Posted: September 29, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 1.4 percent in the second quarter of 2016, according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 0.8 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "second" estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was 1.1 percent. With the third estimate for the second quarter, the general picture of ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase 3,000 to 254,000
Posted: September 29, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending September 24, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 254,000, an increase of 3,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 1,000 from 252,000 to 251,000. The 4-week moving average was 256,000, a decrease of 2,250 from the previous week's revised average. ...


August New Orders for Durable Goods unch%, Ex-Trans down 0.4%
Posted: September 28, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in August decreased $0.1 billion or virtually unchanged to $226.9 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This decrease, down three of the last four months, followed a 3.6 percent July increase. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.4 percent. Excluding defense, new ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: September 28, 2016 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 0.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending September 23, 2016.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 0.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 1 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 2 ...


Richmond Fed's Current Activity Index gained 3 points to a reading of -8
Posted: September 27, 2016 at 10:17 AM (Tuesday)

Manufacturing activity in the Fifth District continued to soften in September, but somewhat less so than in August, according to the Richmond Fed's latest survey. New orders and shipments decreased this month at a slower pace, while backlogs decreased at about the same pace as last month. Hiring activity weakened across firms and wage ...


Consumer Confidence increased in September to 104.1
Posted: September 27, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had increased in August, improved further in September. The Index now stands at 104.1 (1985=100), up from 101.8 in August. The Present Situation Index rose from 125.3 to 128.5, while the Expectations Index improved from 86.1 last month ...


S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices gained 0.7% in July
Posted: September 27, 2016 at 09:00 AM (Tuesday)

S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for July 2016 shows that home prices continued their rise across the country over the last 12 months.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 5.1% annual gain in July, up from 5.0% last month. The 10-City Composite posted a 4.2% annual increase, down from 4.3% the previous month. ...


Texas Manufacturing Activity Increased Markedly in September
Posted: September 26, 2016 at 10:30 AM (Monday)

Texas factory activity increased markedly in September, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rose 12 points to 16.7, suggesting output picked up at a notably faster pace ...


New Home Sales in August at annual rate of 609,000
Posted: September 26, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

Sales of new single-family houses in August 2016 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 609,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 7.6 percent (±10.7%)* below the revised July rate of 659,000, but is 20.6 percent (±14.8%) above the August ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity rebounded moderately in September
Posted: September 22, 2016 at 11:00 AM (Thursday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity rebounded moderately in September, and producers’ expectations for future activity remained positive. The price indexes were mixed. The month-over-month composite index was 6 in September, up from -4 in August and -6 in July. The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, ...


U.S. Leading Economic Index declined 0.2% in August
Posted: September 22, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. declined 0.2 percent in August to 124.1 (2010 = 100), following a 0.5 percent increase in July, and a 0.2 percent increase in June.

“While the U.S. LEI declined in August, its trend still points to moderate economic growth in the months ahead,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “Although strengths and weaknesses among the leading indicators ...


Existing-Home Sales declined 0.9% in August
Posted: September 22, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Existing-home sales eased up in August for the second consecutive month despite mortgage rates near record lows as higher home prices and not enough inventory for sale kept some would-be buyers at bay, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Only the Northeast region saw a monthly increase in closings in August, where inventory ...


Chicago Fed National Activity slowed in August
Posted: September 22, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, ticked up to –0.07 in August from –0.09 in July. August’s CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was slightly below its historical trend. The economic growth reflected in this level of the CFNAI-MA3 suggests subdued inflationary pressure from economic activity over the ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 8,000 to 252,000
Posted: September 22, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending September 17, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 252,000, a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 260,000. The 4-week moving average was 258,500, a decrease of 2,250 from the previous week's unrevised average of 260,750. There were no special factors impacting this ...


FOMC target funds rate reaffirmed at 1/4 to 1/2%
Posted: September 21, 2016 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in July indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and growth of economic activity has picked up from the modest pace seen in the first half of this year. Although the unemployment rate is little changed in recent months, job gains have been solid, on ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: September 21, 2016 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 7.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending September 16, 2016. The prior week's results included an adjustment for the Labor ...


August Housing Starts down 5.8%, Permits down 0.4%
Posted: September 20, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

BUILDING PERMITS
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,139,000. This is 0.4 percent (±1.6%) below the revised July rate of 1,144,000 and is 2.3 percent (±1.5%) below the August 2015 estimate of 1,166,000. Single-family authorizations in August were at a rate ...


Philadelphia NonManufacturing Activity Suggest Slightly Slower Growth Pace
Posted: September 20, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Regional nonmanufacturing activity in September grew at a slightly slower pace, according to firms responding to this month’s Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s indexes for current general activity at the firm level and in the region remained positive but suggest a continuation of a slight softening in the region. In ...


Builder Confidence jumped six points to 65 in September
Posted: September 19, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

Builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes in September jumped six points to 65 from a downwardly revised August reading of 59 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. This marks the highest HMI level since ...


Treasury International Capital Data for July 2016
Posted: September 16, 2016 at 04:00 PM (Friday)

The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for July 2016. The sum total in July of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a monthly net TIC inflow of $140.6 billion. Of this, net foreign private inflows were $162.7 billion, and ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Preliminary September Results were Unch
Posted: September 16, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Confidence was unchanged in early September from the August final and barely different from the July reading. Small and offsetting changes have taken place in the third quarter 2016 surveys: modest gains in the outlook for the national economy have been offset by small declines in income prospects as well as buying plans. While income ...


Consumer Price Index increased 0.2% in August, Ex Fd & Engy up 0.3%
Posted: September 16, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent in August on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 1.1 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The seasonally adjusted increase in the all items index was caused by a rise in the index for all items less food and energy. It increased 0.3 percent in August, as the indexes for shelter and medical care advanced. ...


Real Average Hourly Earnings decreased 0.1% in August
Posted: September 16, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased 0.1 percent from July to August, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from a 0.1-percent increase in average hourly earnings being more than offset by a 0.2-percent increase in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban ...


Business Inventories unch% in July
Posted: September 15, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that the combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for July, adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,303.6 billion, down 0.2 percent (±0.1%) from June 2016 and was down 0.8 percent (±0.4%) from ...


Industrial Production decreased 0.4%
Capacity Utilization decreased to 75.5%

Posted: September 15, 2016 at 09:15 AM (Thursday)

Industrial production decreased 0.4 percent in August after rising 0.6 percent in July. Manufacturing output also declined 0.4 percent in August, reversing its increase in July; the level of the index in August is little changed from its level in March. Following two consecutive monthly increases, the index for utilities fell back 1.4 percent ...


2Q2016 Current Account Deficit Decreased
Posted: September 15, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

The U.S. current-account deficit decreased to $119.9 billion (preliminary) in the second quarter of 2016 from $131.8 billion (revised) in the first quarter of 2016, according to statistics released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The deficit decreased to 2.6 percent of current-dollar gross domestic product (GDP) from 2.9 percent in ...


Producer Price Index unch% in August, ex Fd & Engy up 0.3%
Posted: September 15, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

The Producer Price Index for final demand was unchanged in August, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices declined 0.4 percent in July and rose 0.5 percent in June. On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index was unchanged for the 12 months ended ...


U.S. Retail Sales for August Decrease 0.3%, Ex-Auto down 0.1%
Posted: September 15, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for August, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $456.3 billion, a decrease of 0.3 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month, and 1.9 percent (±0.7%) above August 2015. Total ...


Philadelphia Fed Outlook Reported Activity Picks Up in September
Posted: September 15, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Results from the Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest that regional manufacturing conditions continued to improve in September. Indicators for general activity and new orders were positive and increased from their readings last month. Indicators for shipments and employment, however, were negative, suggesting weaker performance for ...


Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions edged lower in September
Posted: September 15, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Business activity edged lower in New York State, according to firms responding to the September 2016 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index held below zero, and was little changed at -2.0. The new orders index fell eight points to -7.5 and the shipments index fell eighteen points to -9.4—developments ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase 1,000 to 260,000
Posted: September 15, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending September 10, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 260,000, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 259,000. The 4-week moving average was 260,750, a decrease of 500 from the previous week's unrevised average of 261,250. There were no special factors impacting this week's ...


U.S. Import Price Index declined 0.2% in August
Posted: September 14, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

U.S. import prices declined 0.2 percent in August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, after ticking up 0.1 percent in July. The August downturn was driven by lower fuel prices. Prices for U.S. exports decreased 0.8 percent in August following a 0.2-percent increase ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: September 14, 2016 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 4.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending September 9, 2016. This week's results included an adjustment for the Labor ...


NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 0.2 points in August to 94.4
Posted: September 13, 2016 at 07:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Index of Small Business Optimism fell 0.2 points to 94.4, still well below the 40 year average of 98. Five of the 10 Index components posted a gain, four declined and one was unchanged. GDP growth in the last three quarters has averaged 1 percent, not a recession but only matching the growth in the population. Hard to figure how the ...


Wholesale Inventories unch% in July
Posted: September 9, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that July 2016 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading-day differences but not for price changes, were $441.9 billion, down 0.4 percent (+/-0.4%)* from the revised June level and were down 1.0 percent (+/-0.9%) ...


Consumer Credit Increased at an annual rate of 5.75%
Posted: September 8, 2016 at 03:00 PM (Thursday)

In July, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5-3/4 percent. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 3-1/2 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 6-3/4 percent.

...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 4,000 to 259,000
Posted: September 8, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending September 3, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 259,000, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 263,000. The 4-week moving average was 261,250, a decrease of 1,750 from the previous week's unrevised average of 263,000. There were no special factors impacting this week's ...


Beige Book: Economic Activity continued to expand at a modest pace
Posted: September 7, 2016 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts suggest that national economic activity continued to expand at a modest pace on balance during the reporting period of July through late August. Most Districts reported a "modest" or "moderate" pace of overall growth. However, Kansas City and New York reported no change in activity, ...


Job Openings increased to 5.9 million in July
Posted: September 7, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

The number of job openings increased to 5.9 million on the last business day of July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Hires and separations were little changed at 5.2 million and 4.9 million, respectively. Within separations, the quits rate was 2.1 percent and the layoffs and discharges rate was 1.1 percent. This ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: September 7, 2016 at 07:30 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 0.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending September 2, 2016.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 0.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 0.1 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 1 ...


Employment Trends Index decreased in August to 128.02
Posted: September 6, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) decreased in August, after increasing in the prior two months. The index now stands at 128.02, down from 128.44 (an upward revision) in July. The change represents a 0.8 percent gain in the ETI compared to a year ago.

“The Employment Trends Index is consistent with moderating job growth in the second half of 2016,” said Gad Levanon, Chief Economist, North America, at The Conference Board. “With the ongoing massive retirement of baby boomers, even moderate job growth is enough to continue ...


ISM Non-Manufacturing Index grew slower at 51.4% in August
Posted: September 6, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in August for the 79th consecutive month, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The NMI® registered 51.4 percent in August, 4.1 percentage points lower than the July reading of 55.5 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a slower rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index decreased substantially to 51.8 ...


New orders for manufactured goods increased 1.9% in July
Posted: September 2, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

New orders for manufactured goods in July, up following two consecutive monthly decreases, increased $8.4 billion or 1.9 percent to $454.8 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 1.8 percent June decrease.

Shipments, down following four consecutive monthly increases, decreased $0.9 billion or 0.2 percent to $458.9 billion. This followed a 0.6 percent June increase. ...


August Employment increased by 151,000
Unemployment Rate unchanged at 4.9%

Posted: September 2, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 151,000 in August, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in several service-providing industries.

The number of unemployed persons was essentially unchanged at 7.8 million in August, and the unemployment rate was 4.9 percent for the third month in a row. Both measures have shown little movement over the year, on net. ...


Goods and Services Deficit Decreased in July 2016
Posted: September 2, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

The Nation's international trade deficit in goods and services decreased to $39.5 billion in July from $44.7 billion in June (revised), as exports increased and imports decreased.

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that the goods and services deficit was $39.5 billion in July, down $5.2 billion from $44.7 billion in June, revised. July exports were $186.3 billion, $3.4 ...


New York Purchasing Managers Business Activity eased in August to 47.5
Posted: September 2, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

New York City business activity eased in August after a seven month high in July, according to the survey taken by the Institute for Supply Management-New York. Short term expectations seem measured, with volume of purchases, revenues, and expected revenues all either contracting or staying ...



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