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Category: Research - Topic: Economics - 201610

Texas Fed Manufacturing Activity Increases Again, But at A Slower Pace in October
Posted: October 31, 2016 at 10:30 AM (Monday)

Texas factory activity increased again in October, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, posted a fourth consecutive positive reading but moved down to 6.7. This suggests output grew but at a slower pace ...

Chicago Purchasing Managers Index fell 3.6 points to 50.6 in October
Posted: October 31, 2016 at 09:45 AM (Monday)

The MNI Chicago Business Barometer fell 3.6 points to a five-month low of 50.6 in October from 54.2 in September, suggesting economic activity in the US lost some momentum having picked up in Q3. The latest outturn marked a weak start to Q4, with the three-month trend softening to 52.1 in October from 53.8 in the three months ...

Personal Income increased 0.3%, Spending increased 0.5%
Posted: October 31, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

Personal income increased $46.7 billion (0.3 percent) in September according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $37.0 billion (0.3 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $61.0 billion ...

University of Michigan Consumer Confidence down in October to 87.2
Posted: October 28, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Consumers became a bit less optimistic about prospects for the economy in the latest survey but still maintained an optimistic outlook for their personal finances. Importantly, consumers anticipated that the inflation rate would remain near record lows over the next five years. The economy is anticipated to be strong enough in the year ahead ...

3Q2016 GDP advance estimate increased 2.9%
Posted: October 28, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 2.9 percent in the third quarter of 2016 ), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 1.4 percent.

The increase in real GDP in the third quarter reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, private inventory investment, federal government spending, and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by negative ...

Employment Cost Index up 0.6% in 3Q2016
Posted: October 28, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.6 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in September 2016, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Wages and salaries (which make up about 70 percent of compensation costs) increased 0.5 percent, and benefits (which make up the remaining 30 percent ...

Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity continued moderate pace in October
Posted: October 27, 2016 at 11:00 AM (Thursday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity expanded again at a moderate pace, and producers’ expectations for future activity increased further. The price indexes were mixed, but mostly little changed.

The month-over-month composite index was 6 in October, equal to 6 in September and up from -4 in August. The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes. The increase was mostly ...

Pending Home Sales Index grew 1.5% in September
Posted: October 27, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Pending home sales shifted higher in September following August's notable dip and are now at their fifth highest level over the past year, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Increases in the South and West outgained declines in the Northeast and Midwest.

The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, grew 1.5 percent to 110.0 in September from a slight downward revision of 108.4 in August. With last month's gain, the index is now 2.4 percent higher than last September (107.4) and has ...

September New Orders for Durable Goods decreased 0.1%, Ex-Trans up 0.3%
Posted: October 27, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in September decreased $0.3 billion or 0.1 percent to $227.3 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This decrease, down following two consecutive monthly increases, followed a 0.3 percent August increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.2 percent. Excluding ...

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 3,000 to 258,000
Posted: October 27, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending October 22, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 258,000, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 260,000 to 261,000. The 4-week moving average was 253,000, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week's revised average. ...

New Home Sales in September at annual rate of 593,000
Posted: October 26, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Sales of new single-family houses in September 2016 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 593,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 3.1 percent (±16.2%) above the revised August rate of 575,000 and is 29.8 percent (±23.4%) above the ...

Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: October 26, 2016 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 4.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 21, 2016. The prior week's results included an adjustment for the Columbus ...

Consumer Confidence declined in October to 98.6
Posted: October 25, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had increased in September, declined in October. The Index now stands at 98.6 (1985=100), down from 103.5 in September. The Present Situation Index decreased from 127.9 to 120.6, while the Expectations Index declined from 87.2 last month ...

Richmond Fed's Current Activity Index gained 4 points to a reading of -4
Posted: October 25, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Fifth District manufacturing activity remained sluggish in October, according to the most recent survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. New orders and backlogs decreased this month, while shipments flattened. Hiring activity strengthened mildly across firms and wage increases were more widespread. Prices of raw materials and ...

S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices gained 0.5% in August
Posted: October 25, 2016 at 09:00 AM (Tuesday)

S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data for August 2016 shows that home prices continued their rise across the country over the last 12 months

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 5.3% annual gain in August, up from 5.0% last month. The 10-City Composite posted a 4.3% annual increase, up from 4.1% the previous month. ...

Philadelphia NonManufacturing Activity Suggest Subdued Growth Pace
Posted: October 25, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Regional nonmanufacturing activity in October grew at nearly the same pace as last month but remained subdued, according to firms responding to this month’s Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s index for current general activity at the firm level indicates continued modest growth, while the indexes for new orders ...

Chicago Fed National Activity growth picked up in September
Posted: October 24, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, edged down to –0.21 in September from –0.14 in August. September’s CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was somewhat below its historical trend. The economic growth reflected in this level of the CFNAI-MA3 suggests subdued inflationary pressure from economic activity ...

U.S. Leading Economic Index increased 0.2% in September
Posted: October 20, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.2 percent in September to 124.4 (2010 = 100), following a 0.2 percent decline in August, and a 0.5 percent increase in July.

“The U.S. LEI increased in September, reversing its August decline, which together with the pickup in the six-month growth rate suggests that the economy should continue expanding at a moderate pace through early 2017,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles ...

Existing-Home Sales hiked 3.2% in September
Posted: October 20, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Existing-home sales rebounded strongly in September and were propelled by sales from first-time buyers reaching a 34 percent share, which is a high not seen in over four years, according to the National Association of Realtors®. All major regions saw an increase in closings last month, and distressed sales fell to a new low of 4 percent of ...

Philadelphia Fed Outlook Reported Activity edged down in October
Posted: October 20, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Results from the October Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest that regional manufacturing conditions continued to improve. Indexes for general activity, new orders, and shipments were all positive this month. But firms reported continued weakness in overall labor market conditions. Firms expect continued growth for manufacturing over ...

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase 13,000 to 260,000
Posted: October 20, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending October 15, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 260,000, an increase of 13,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 246,000 to 247,000. The 4-week moving average was 251,750, an increase of 2,250 from the previous week's revised average. ...

Beige Book: Economic Activity continues to expand at a modest or moderate pace
Posted: October 19, 2016 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts suggest national economic activity continued to expand during the reporting period from late August to early October. Most Districts indicated a modest or moderate pace of expansion; however, the New York District reported no change in overall activity. Compared with the previous report, the ...

September Housing Starts down 9.0%, Permits up 6.3%
Posted: October 19, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,225,000. This is 6.3 percent (±1.9%) above the revised August rate of 1,152,000 and is 8.5 percent (±2.4%) above the September 2015 estimate of 1,129,000. Single-family authorizations in September were at a ...

Purchase Apps up, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: October 19, 2016 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 0.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 14, 2016. This week's results included an adjustment for the Columbus ...

Treasury International Capital Data for August 2016
Posted: October 18, 2016 at 04:00 PM (Tuesday)

The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for August 2016. The sum total in August of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a monthly net TIC inflow of $73.8 billion. Of this, net foreign private inflows were $113.0 billion, and ...

Builder Confidence down two points to 63 in October
Posted: October 18, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Builder confidence in the market for newly constructed single-family homes remained on firm ground in October, down two points to a level of 63 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI).

“Even with this month’s drop, builder confidence stands at its second-highest level in 2016, a sign that the housing recovery continues to make solid progress,” said NAHB Chairman Ed Brady, a home builder and developer from Bloomington, Ill. “However, builders in many ...

Consumer Price Index increased 0.3% in September, Ex Fd & Engy up 0.1%
Posted: October 18, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent in September on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 1.5 percent before seasonal adjustment.

Increases in the shelter and gasoline indexes were the main causes of the rise in the all items index. The gasoline index rose 5.8 percent in September and accounted for more than half of the all items increase. The shelter index increased 0.4 percent, its largest increase ...

Real Average Hourly Earnings decreased 0.1% in September
Posted: October 18, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased 0.1 percent from August to September, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from a 0.2 percent increase in average hourly earnings being more than offset by a 0.3-percent increase in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban ...

Industrial Production edged up 0.1%
Capacity Utilization increased to 75.4%

Posted: October 17, 2016 at 09:15 AM (Monday)

Industrial production edged up 0.1 percent in September after falling 0.5 percent in August. For the third quarter as a whole, industrial production rose at an annual rate of 1.8 percent for its first quarterly increase since the third quarter of 2015. Manufacturing output increased 0.2 percent in September and moved up at an annual rate of ...

Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions continued to decline in October
Posted: October 17, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

Business activity continued to decline in New York State, according to firms responding to the October 2016 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index slipped five points to -6.8. The new orders index edged up but remained negative at -5.6, indicating an ongoing drop in orders, and the shipments ...

Business Inventories up 0.2% in August
Posted: October 14, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that the combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for August, adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,304.1 billion, up 0.2 percent (±0.2%)* from July 2016, but was virtually unchanged (±0.5%)* from ...

University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Preliminary October Results fell to 87.9
Posted: October 14, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

The Sentiment Index slipped in early October to its lowest level since last September and the second lowest level in the past two years. The early October loss was concentrated among households with incomes below $75,000, whose Index fell to its lowest level since August of 2014. In contrast, confidence among upper income households ...

Producer Price Index rose 0.3% in September, ex Fd & Engy up 0.3%
Posted: October 14, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.3 percent in September, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices were unchanged in August and declined 0.4 percent in July. On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index increased 0.7 percent for the 12 months ended in September, the ...

U.S. Retail Sales for September Increase 0.6%, Ex-Auto up 0.5%
Posted: October 14, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for September, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $459.8 billion, an increase of 0.6 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month, and 2.7 percent (±0.9%) above September 2015. ...

U.S. Import Price Index increased 0.1% in September
Posted: October 13, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Prices for U.S. imports increased 0.1 percent in September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, following a 0.2-percent decline the previous month. The September advance was led by higher fuel prices. U.S. export prices rose 0.3 percent in September, after decreasing 0.8 percent ...

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 3,000 to 246,000
Posted: October 13, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending October 8, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 246,000, unchanged from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 3,000 from 249,000 to 246,000. The 4-week moving average was 249,250, a decrease of 3,500 from the previous week's revised average. This is the ...

Job Openings decreased to 5.4 million in August
Posted: October 12, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

The number of job openings decreased to 5.4 million on the last business day of August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Hires and separations were little changed at 5.2 million and 5.0 million, respectively. Within separations, the quits rate was 2.1 percent and the layoffs and discharges rate was 1.1 percent. This ...

Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: October 12, 2016 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 6.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 7, 2016.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 6.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 6 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 8 ...

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 0.3 points in September to 94.1
Posted: October 11, 2016 at 07:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Index of Small Business Optimism fell 0.3 points to 94.1, another monthly decline, and four points below the 40 year average of 98. Four of the 10 Index components posted a gain, six declined. There was a huge improvement in the outlook for business conditions, but rising only to a net 0 percent expecting improvement. Offsetting that gain ...

Employment Trends Index increased in September to 128.51
Posted: October 10, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) increased in September, after a slight decline in the prior month. The index now stands at 128.51, up from 127.96 (a downward revision) in August. The change represents a 1.1 percent gain in the ETI compared to a year ago.

“The Employment Trends Index increased to 128.51 in September, despite a large decline in one component, NFIB, and suggests moderate job growth through the first quarter of 2017,” said Gad Levanon, Chief Economist, North America, at The Conference Board. “Despite the recent ...

Consumer Credit Increased at an annual rate of 8.50%
Posted: October 7, 2016 at 03:00 PM (Friday)

In August, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 8-1/2 percent. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 7 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 9 percent.


Wholesale Inventories down 0.2% in August
Posted: October 7, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that August 2016 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading-day differences but not for price changes, were $444.3 billion, up 0.7 percent (+/-0.5%) from the revised July level and were up 0.6 percent (+/-1.2%) from ...

September Employment increased by 156,000
Unemployment Rate little changed at 5.0%

Posted: October 7, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 156,000 in September, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 5.0 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment gains occurred in professional and business services and in health care.

Household Survey Data
The unemployment rate, at 5.0 percent, and the number of unemployed persons, at 7.9 million, changed little in September. Both measures have shown little movement, on net, since August of last year. ...

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 5,000 to 249,000
Posted: October 6, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending October 1, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 249,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 254,000. The 4-week moving average was 253,500, a decrease of 2,500 from the previous week's unrevised average of 256,000. This is the lowest level for this average since December ...

Challenger Layoffs increase to 44,324 in September
Posted: October 6, 2016 at 07:00 AM (Thursday)

Monthly job cuts increased to close out the third quarter, as employers announced plans to shed 44,324 workers from the payrolls in September, according to the report released Thursday by global outplacement consultancy Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.

Last month’s total was 38 percent higher than August, when announcements fell to 32,188, the second lowest total of the year behind May’s 30,157. ...

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index grew faster at 57.1% in September
Posted: October 5, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in September for the 80th consecutive month, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The NMI® registered 57.1 percent in September, 5.7 percentage points higher than the August reading of 51.4 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a faster rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased substantially to ...

New orders for manufactured goods increased 0.2% in August
Posted: October 5, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

New orders for manufactured goods in August, up two consecutive months, increased $0.7 billion or 0.2 percent to $453.1 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 1.4 percent July increase.

Shipments, up five of the last six months, increased $0.1 billion or virtually unchanged to $458.1 billion. This followed a 0.4 percent July decrease. ...

Help Wanted OnLine Labor Demand decreased 93,800 to 4,722,300 in September
Posted: October 5, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Online advertised vacancies decreased 93,800 to 4,722,300 in September, according to The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Data Series,released today. The August Supply/Demand rate stands at 1.63 unemployed for each advertised vacancy with a total of 3.0 million more unemployed workers than the number of advertised vacancies. The ...

Goods and Services Deficit Increased in August 2016
Posted: October 5, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

The Nation's international trade deficit in goods and services increased to $40.7 billion in August from $39.5 billion in July (revised), as imports increased more than exports. The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that the goods and services deficit was $40.7 ...

ADP National Employment Report increased by 154,000 jobs in September
Posted: October 5, 2016 at 08:15 AM (Wednesday)

Private sector employment increased by 154,000 jobs from August to September according to the September ADP National Employment Report®.

Payrolls for businesses with 49 or fewer employees increased by 34,000 jobs in September, down from 68,000 in August. Employment at companies with 50-499 employees increased by 56,000 jobs, up from last month’s 40,000. Employment at large companies – those with 500 or more ...

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