The MNI Chicago Business Barometer fell 3.0 points to 54.6 in December from 57.6 in November, led by declines in both New Orders and Order Backlogs. After a disappointing start to the fourth quarter, the latest results suggest economic conditions have improved somewhat, with the Barometer averaging 54.3 in Q4, the highest in ...

In the week ending December 24, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 265,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 275,000. The 4-week moving average was 263,000, a decrease of 750 from the previous week's unrevised average of 263,750. There were no special factors impacting this week's ...

Pending home sales dipped in November to their lowest level in nearly a year as the brisk upswing in mortgage rates and not enough inventory dispirited some would-be buyers, according to the National Association of Realtors. Only the Northeast saw monthly and annual pending sales gains ...

Texas factory activity increased for the sixth consecutive month in December, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rose five points to 13.8, suggesting faster output growth ...

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had increased considerably in November, posted another gain in December. The Index now stands at 113.7 (1985=100), up from 109.4 in November. The Expectations Index increased sharply from 94.4 to 105.5, but the Present Situation Index decreased from 132.0 last month ...

Fifth District manufacturing activity expanded in December. The volume of new orders picked up compared to last month and shipments increased. Manufacturing employment softened, while wage increases were more widespread across firms. Prices of raw materials rose more quickly in December, while prices of finished goods rose at a somewhat ...

S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for October 2016 shows that home prices continued their rise across the country over the last 12 months.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 5.6% annual gain in October, up from 5.4% last month. The 10-City Composite posted a 4.3% annual increase, up from 4.2% the previous month. ...

Sales of new single-family houses in November 2016 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 592,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 5.2 percent (±14.1%)* above the revised October rate of 563,000 and is 16.5 percent (±19.3%)* above ...

As unexpected as Trump’s election, consumers expressed much more positive economic expectations following his victory. While the surge in confidence ended by mid December, it nonetheless led to the highest level of the Sentiment Index since January 2004. An all-time record number of consumers spontaneously mentioned the expected favorable ...

Tenth District manufacturing activity improved considerably to its highest growth rate in over two years, and producers’ expectations for future activity also increased. Price indexes continued to post moderate increases in December.

The month-over-month composite index was 11 in December, up from 1 in November and 6 in October. The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes. Activity in nondurable goods plants ...

Personal income increased $1.6 billion (less than 0.1 percent) in November according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) decreased $1.3 billion (less than 0.1 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $24.0 billion ...

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. was unchanged in November, remaining at 124.6 (2010 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in October, and a 0.3 percent increase in September.

“The U.S. Leading Economic Index continued on an upward trend through 2016, although at a moderate pace of growth,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “The underlying trends in the LEI suggest that the economy ...

Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 3.5 percent in the third quarter of 2016, according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 1.4 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "second" estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was 3.2 percent. With this third estimate for the third quarter, nonresidential fixed ...

New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in November decreased $11.0 billion or 4.6 percent to $228.2 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This decrease, down following four consecutive monthly increases, followed a 4.8 percent October increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.5 percent. Excluding ...

The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, edged up to –0.14 in November from –0.20 in October. November’s CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was slightly below its historical trend. The economic growth reflected in this level of the CFNAI-MA3 suggests subdued inflationary pressure from economic activity over ...

In the week ending December 17, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 275,000, an increase of 21,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 254,000. The 4-week moving average was 263,750, an increase of 6,000 from the previous week's unrevised average of 257,750. There were no special factors impacting this ...

A big surge in the Northeast and a smaller gain in the South pushed existing-home sales up in November for the third consecutive month, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, rose 0.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.61 million in November from a downwardly revised 5.57 million in October. November's ...

Mortgage applications increased 2.5 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 16, 2016.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 2.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 2 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 3 ...

The pace of growth for regional nonmanufacturing activity rose in December, according to the firms responding to this month’s Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The index for current firm-level activity rose notably. The indexes for new orders, sales, and employment also increased, but by lesser amounts. Survey respondents continued ...

BUILDING PERMITS
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,201,000. This is 4.7 percent (±1.1%) below the revised October rate of 1,260,000 and is 6.6 percent (±2.6%) below the November 2015 estimate of 1,286,000. Single-family authorizations in November were at a ...

The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for October 2016. The sum total in October of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a monthly net TIC inflow of $18.8 billion. Of this, net foreign private inflows were $60.5 billion, ...

Builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes jumped seven points to a level of 70 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). This is the highest reading since July 2005.

“This notable rise in builder sentiment is largely attributable to a post-election bounce, as builders are hopeful that President-elect Trump will follow through on his pledge to cut burdensome regulations that are harming small businesses and housing affordability,” said ...

The U.S. current account deficit decreased to $113.0 billion (preliminary) in the third quarter of 2016 from $118.3 billion (revised) in the second quarter of 2016, according to statistics released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The deficit decreased to 2.4 percent of current-dollar gross domestic product (GDP) from 2.6 percent in ...

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent in November on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 1.7 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The shelter and gasoline indexes continued to rise in November, and were again the main reasons for the seasonally adjusted all items increase. The shelter index advanced 0.3 percent in November, while the gasoline index increased 2.7 percent. ...

Real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased 0.4 percent from October to November, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from a 0.1 percent decrease in average hourly earnings being more than offset by a 0.2-percent increase in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban ...

Activity picked up in December, according to the firms responding to this month’s Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The indexes for general activity, shipments, and employment were all positive this month and increased from their readings last month. Manufacturers were much more optimistic about growth over the next six months. The ...

Business activity grew modestly in New York State, according to firms responding to the December 2016 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index climbed eight points to 9.0. The new orders index rose to 11.4, and the shipments index was unchanged at 8.5. Labor market conditions remained weak, ...

In the week ending December 10, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 254,000, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 258,000. The 4-week moving average was 257,750, an increase of 5,250 from the previous week's unrevised average of 252,500. There were no special factors impacting this ...

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in November indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace since mid-year. Job gains have been solid in recent months and the unemployment rate has declined. Household spending has been rising ...

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that the combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for October, adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,326.8 billion, up 0.8 percent (±0.2%) from September 2016 and was up 2.1 percent (±0.4%) from ...

Industrial production declined 0.4 percent in November after edging up 0.1 percent in October. In November, manufacturing output moved down 0.1 percent, and mining posted a gain of 1.1 percent. The index for utilities dropped 4.4 percent, as warmer-than-normal temperatures reduced the demand for heating. At 103.9 percent of its 2012 average, ...

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.4 percent in November, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices were unchanged in October and advanced 0.3 percent in September. On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index climbed 1.3 percent for the 12 months ended November 2016, ...

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for November, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $465.5 billion, an increase of 0.1 percent (±0.5%)* from the previous month, and 3.8 percent (±0.9%) above November 2015. ...

Mortgage applications decreased 4.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 9, 2016.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 4.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 5 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 4 ...

U.S. import prices fell 0.3 percent in November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, following increases of 0.4 percent and 0.1 percent the 2 previous months. The drop in November was primarily led by decreasing fuel prices. U.S. export prices also declined in November, edging down 0.1 percent, after a 0.2-percent increase ...

The Index of Small Business Optimism rose 3.5 points to 98.4, a substantial gain to just above the 42-year average of 98. Eight of the 10 Index components posted a gain, one declined and one was unchanged. Expectations for real sales gains and outlook for business conditions accounted for 69 percent of the gain. The two employment components ...

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that October 2016 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading-day differences but not for price changes, were $452.2 billion, up 1.4 percent (+/-0.7%) from the revised September level and were up 2.2 percent ...

Consumer confidence surged in early December to just one-tenth of an Index point below the 2015 peak—which was the highest level since the start of 2004. The surge was largely due to consumers’ initial reactions to Trump’s surprise victory. When asked what news they had heard of recent economic developments, more consumers spontaneously ...

In the week ending December 3, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 258,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 268,000. The 4-week moving average was 252,500, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week's unrevised average of 251,500. There were no special factors impacting this ...

In October, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5-1/4 percent. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 3 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 6 percent.

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The number of job openings was little changed at 5.5 million on the last business day of October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires and separations were also little changed at 5.1 million and 4.9 million, respectively. Within separations, the quits rate was unchanged at 2.1 percent and the layoffs ...

Mortgage applications decreased 0.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 2, 2016. The prior week's results included an adjustment for the ...

New orders for manufactured goods in October, up four consecutive months, increased $12.5 billion or 2.7 percent to $469.4 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 0.6 percent September increase.

Shipments, up seven of the last eight months, increased $1.7 billion or 0.4 percent to $464.7 billion. This followed a 0.9 percent September increase. Unfilled orders, up following four consecutive monthly decreases, increased $8.2 billion or 0.7 percent to $1,128.5 ...

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased at a 3.1-percent annual rate during the third quarter of 2016, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, as output increased 3.6 percent and hours worked increased 0.5 percent. (All quarterly percent changes in this release are seasonally adjusted annual rates.) The quarterly ...

The Nation's international trade deficit in goods and services increased to $42.6 billion in October from $36.2 billion in September (revised), as exports decreased and imports increased.

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that the goods and services deficit was $42.6 billion in October, up $6.4 billion from $36.2 billion in September, revised. October exports were $186.4 ...

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) increased again in November, after increasing in October. The index now stands at 129.96, up from 128.95 in October. The change represents a 2.7 percent gain in the ETI compared to a year ago.

“The Employment Trends Index is showing some signs of acceleration, suggesting that employment growth will not slow down further in the coming months,” said Gad Levanon, Chief Economist, North America, at The Conference Board. “Moderate employment growth will be enough to ...

Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in November for the 82nd consecutive month, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The NMI® registered 57.2 percent in November, 2.4 percentage points higher than the October reading of 54.8 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a faster rate. This is the 12-month high, and the highest reading since the 58.3 ...

The unemployment rate declined to 4.6 percent in November, and total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 178,000, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment gains occurred in professional and business services and in health care.

Household Survey Data
In November, the unemployment rate decreased by 0.3 percentage point to 4.6 percent, and the number of unemployed persons declined by 387,000 to 7.4 million. Both measures had shown little movement, on net, from August 2015 through October 2016. ...

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in November, and the overall economy grew for the 90th consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The November PMI® registered 53.2 percent, an increase of 1.3 percentage points from the October reading of 51.9 percent. The New Orders Index registered 53 percent, an increase of 0.9 percentage point from the October reading of 52.1 percent. The Production Index ...

The U.S. Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that construction spending during October 2016 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,172.6 billion, 0.5 percent (±1.5%) above the revised September estimate of $1,166.5 billion. The October figure is 3.4 percent (±1.8%) above the October 2015 estimate ...