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Category: Research - Topic: Economics - 201701

Consumer Confidence retreated in January to 111.8
Posted: January 31, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had increased in December, retreated in January. The Index now stands at 111.8 (1985=100), down from 113.3 in December. The Present Situation Index increased from 123.5 to 129.7, but the Expectations Index decreased from 106.4 last month ...

Chicago Purchasing Managers Index fell 3.6 points to 50.3 in January
Posted: January 31, 2017 at 09:45 AM (Tuesday)

The MNI Chicago Business Barometer fell 3.6 points to 50.3 in January from a previously revised 53.9 in December 2016, the lowest since May 2016.

Following a strong Q4, with the three-month average of the barometer at 54.3, the January reading made for a sluggish start to the first quarter of 2017. It was down 8.4% compared with January 2016’s reading. ...

S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices gained 0.2% in November
Posted: January 31, 2017 at 09:00 AM (Tuesday)

S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for November 2016 shows that home prices continued their rise across the country over the last 12 months.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 5.6% annual gain in November, up from 5.5% last month. The 10-City Composite posted a 4.5% annual increase, up from 4.3% the previous month. ...

Employment Cost Index up 0.5% in 4Q2016
Posted: January 31, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.5 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in December 2016, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Wages and salaries (which make up about 70 percent of compensation costs) increased 0.5 percent, and benefits (which make up the remaining 30 percent ...

Paychex-IHS Small Business Jobs Index increased to 100.62 in January
Posted: January 31, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

The Paychex | IHS Small Business Jobs Index continued to increase in January to 100.62, beginning 2017 at the same pace of employment growth it averaged throughout 2016. Up 0.13 percent in January and 0.10 percent in December, the national index increased two months in a row for the first time since last February as employment improved ...

Texas Fed Manufacturing Activity Increased in January
Posted: January 30, 2017 at 10:30 AM (Monday)

Texas factory activity increased for the seventh consecutive month in January, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, edged down but remained positive at 11.9, suggesting output growth continued but at a slightly slower pace ...

Pending Home Sales Index increased 1.6% in December
Posted: January 30, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, increased 1.6 percent to 109.0 in December from 107.3 in November. With last month's uptick in activity, the index is now 0.3 percent above last December (108.7).

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says contract activity was mixed throughout the country in December but ultimately ended on a high note to close out 2016. "Pending sales rebounded last month as enough buyers fended off rising mortgage rates and alarmingly low inventory ...

Personal Income increased 0.3%, Spending increased 0.5%
Posted: January 30, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

Personal income increased $50.2 billion (0.3 percent) in December according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $43.6 billion (0.3 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $63.1 billion ...

University of Michigan Consumer Confidence up in January to 98.5
Posted: January 27, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Consumers expressed a higher level of confidence in January than any other time in the last dozen years. The post-election surge in confidence was driven by a more optimistic outlook for the economy and job growth during the year ahead as well as more favorable economic prospects over the next five years. Consumers also reported much more ...

4Q2016 GDP advance estimate increased 1.9%, 2016 GDP up 1.6%
Posted: January 27, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2016 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.5 percent.

The Bureau emphasized that the fourth-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see “Source Data for the Advance Estimate” on page 3). The "second" estimate for the fourth ...

December New Orders for Durable Goods decreased 0.4%, Ex-Trans up 0.5%
Posted: January 27, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in December decreased $1.0 billion or 0.4 percent to $227.0 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This decrease, down two consecutive months, followed a 4.8 percent November decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.5 percent. Excluding defense, new orders ...

Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity continued to expand moderately in January
Posted: January 26, 2017 at 11:00 AM (Thursday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity continued to expand moderately, and producers’ expectations for future activity increased considerably. Most price indexes recorded little change, with the exception of current selling prices which fell modestly.

The month-over-month composite index was 9 in January, unchanged from 9 in December but up from 0 in November (Tables 1 & 2, Chart). The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes. ...

U.S. Leading Economic Index increased 0.5% in December
Posted: January 26, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI)for the U.S. increased 0.5 percent in December to 124.6 (2010 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in November, and a 0.2 percent increase in October.

“The U.S. Leading Economic Index increased in December, suggesting the economy will continue growing at a moderate pace, perhaps even accelerating slightly in the early months of this year,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The ...

New Home Sales in December at annual rate of 536,000
Posted: January 26, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Sales of new single-family houses in December 2016 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 536,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 10.4 percent (±12.2%)* below the revised November rate of 598,000 and is 0.4 percent (±11.7%)* below ...

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase 22,000 to 259,000
Posted: January 26, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending January 21, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 259,000, an increase of 22,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 3,000 from 234,000 to 237,000. The 4-week moving average was 245,500, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week's revised average. This ...

Chicago Fed National Activity Growth Increased in December
Posted: January 26, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, edged up to –0.07 in December from –0.14 in November. December’s CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was slightly below its historical trend. The economic growth reflected in this level of the CFNAI-MA3 suggests subdued inflationary pressure from economic activity over ...

Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: January 25, 2017 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 4.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 20, 2017. This week's results included an adjustment for the MLK Day holiday.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 4.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 5 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 0.2 ...

Existing-Home Sales decreased 2.8% in December
Posted: January 24, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Existing-home sales closed out 2016 as the best year in a decade, even as sales declined in December as the result of ongoing affordability tensions and historically low supply levels, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, finished 2016 at 5.45 million sales and surpassed 2015 (5.25 million) as the highest since 2006 (6.48 million). ...

Richmond Fed's Current Activity Index gained 4 points to a reading of 12
Posted: January 24, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Fifth District manufacturing activity strengthened in January, with continued growth in new shipments and the volume of new orders. Employment picked up, although increases in average manufacturing wages were less widespread than in December. The average workweek continued to grow, but increases were less prevalent in January than a month ...

Philadelphia NonManufacturing Activity Indicators Signal Faster Growth
Posted: January 24, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Business activity in the region expanded at a faster pace in January compared with December, according to Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey respondents. The index for general activity at the firm level increased along with almost all of the survey’s other indicators. While broad improvements were seen in new orders and sales/revenues, ...

December Housing Starts up 11.3%, Permits down 0.2%
Posted: January 19, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,210,000. This is 0.2 percent (±1.8%)* below the revised November rate of 1,212,000, but is 0.7 percent (±1.6%)* above the December 2015 estimate of 1,201,000. Single-family authorizations in December were at ...

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 15,000 to 234,000
Posted: January 19, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending January 14, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 234,000, a decrease of 15,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 247,000 to 249,000. The 4-week moving average was 246,750, a decrease of 10,250 from the previous week's revised average. This ...

Philadelphia Fed Outlook Reported Activity continued to improve in January
Posted: January 19, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Economic conditions continued to improve in January, according to the firms responding to this month’s Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The indexes for general activity, new orders, and employment were all positive this month and increased from their readings last month. Manufacturers have generally grown more optimistic in their ...

Treasury International Capital Data for November 2016
Posted: January 18, 2017 at 04:00 PM (Wednesday)

The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for November 2016. The sum total in November of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a monthly net TIC inflow of $23.7 billion. Of this, net foreign private inflows were $25.2 billion, ...

Beige Book: Economic Activity continues to expand at a modest pace
Posted: January 18, 2017 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts indicated that the economy continued to expand at a modest pace across most regions from late November through the end of the year. Manufacturers in most Districts reported increased sales with several citing a turnaround versus earlier in 2016. Growth in the energy industry was mixed; ...

Builder Confidence down 2 points to 67 in January
Posted: January 18, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes remained on firm ground in January, down two points to a level of 67 from a downwardly revised December reading of 69 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI).

“Builders begin the year optimistic that a new Congress and administration will help create a better business climate for small businesses, particularly as it relates to streamlining and reforming the regulatory process,” said NAHB Chairman Granger MacDonald, a home builder ...

Industrial Production rose 0.8%
Capacity Utilization increased to 75.5%

Posted: January 18, 2017 at 09:15 AM (Wednesday)

Industrial production rose 0.8 percent in December after falling 0.7 percent in November. For the fourth quarter as a whole, the index slipped 0.6 percent at an annual rate. In December, manufacturing output moved up 0.2 percent and mining output was unchanged. The index for utilities jumped 6.6 percent, largely because of a return to more ...

Consumer Price Index increased 0.3% in December, Ex Fd & Engy up 0.2%
Posted: January 18, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent in December on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 2.1 percent before seasonal adjustment.

Continuing their recent trends, the shelter and gasoline indexes increased in December and were largely responsible for the seasonally adjusted all items increase. The shelter index rose 0.3 percent in December, while the gasoline index increased 3.0 percent. ...

Real Average Hourly Earnings increased 0.1% in December
Posted: January 18, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Real average hourly earnings for all employees increased 0.1 percent from November to December, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from a 0.4 percent increase in average hourly earnings combined with a 0.3-percent increase in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban ...

Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: January 18, 2017 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 0.8 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 13, 2017. The previous week's results included an adjustment for the New ...

Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions continues modest growth in January
Posted: January 17, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Business activity continued to grow modestly in New York State, according to firms responding to the January 2017 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index was little changed at 6.5. The new orders index fell to 3.1, pointing to a small increase in orders, and the shipments index held steady at ...

Business Inventories up 0.7% in November
Posted: January 13, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

The U.S. Census Bureau announced the following new manufacturing and trade statistics for November 2016. The combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for November, adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,326.7 billion, up 0.1 percent (±0.2 percent)* ...

University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Preliminary January Results steady at 98.1
Posted: January 13, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Consumer confidence remained unchanged at the cyclical peak levels recorded in December. The Current Conditions Index rose 0.6 points to reach its highest level since 2004, and the Expectations Index fell 0.6 points which was lower than only the 2015 peak during the past dozen years. The post-election surge in optimism was accompanied by ...

U.S. Retail Sales for December Increase 0.6%, Ex-Auto up 0.2%
Posted: January 13, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for December 2016, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $469.1 billion, an increase of 0.6 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and 4.1 percent (±0.9 percent) above December 2015. Total sales for the 12 months ...

Producer Price Index increased 0.3% in December, ex Fd & Engy up 0.1%
Posted: January 13, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.3 percent in December, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices advanced 0.4 percent in November and were unchanged in October. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index climbed 1.6 percent in 2016 after falling 1.1 ...

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase 10,000 to 247,000
Posted: January 12, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending January 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 247,000, an increase of 10,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 235,000 to 237,000. The 4-week moving average was 256,500, a decrease of 1,750 from the previous week's revised average. ...

U.S. Import Price Index increased 0.4% in December
Posted: January 12, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Prices for U.S. imports rose 0.4 percent in December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, after a 0.2-percent decline the previous month. The advance in December was primarily driven by higher fuel prices which more than offset lower nonfuel prices. U.S. export prices advanced in December, rising 0.3 percent following a ...

Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: January 11, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 5.8 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 6, 2017. The most recent week's results include an adjustment to account for the New Year's Day holiday, while the previous week's results were ...

Job Openings was little changed at 5.5 million in November
Posted: January 10, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The number of job openings was little changed at 5.5 million on the last business day of November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires and separations were also little changed at 5.2 million and 5.0 million, respectively. Within separations, the quits rate was unchanged at 2.1 percent and the layoffs ...

Wholesale Inventories up 1.0% in November
Posted: January 10, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

November 2016 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, adjustment for seasonal variations and trading-day differences but not for price changes, were $452.6 billion, up 0.4 percent (±0.5 percent)* from the revised October level and were up 3.4 percent (±0.9 percent) from the November 2015 level. ...

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose 7.4 points in December to 105.8
Posted: January 10, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

The Index of Small Business Optimism rose 7.4 points to 105.8, the highest reading since December 2004. Seven of the 10 Index components posted a gain, 2 declined and 1 was unchanged. Expectations for real sales gains and outlook for business conditions accounted for 73 percent of the gain. The percent of owners viewing the current period as ...

Consumer Credit Increased at an annual rate of 8.00%
Posted: January 9, 2017 at 03:00 PM (Monday)

In November, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 8 percent. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 13-1/2 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 6 percent.


Employment Trends Index declined slightly in December to 129.62
Posted: January 9, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) declined slightly in the final month of 2016, after increasing in November. The index now stands at 129.62, down from 129.93 in November. The change represents a 2.2 percent gain in the ETI compared to a year ago.

“After strong growth over the previous three months, the Employment Trends Index declined slightly in the final month of 2016. However, the ETI’s trend suggests that job growth will remain solid in early 2017,” said Gad Levanon, Chief Economist, North America, at The ...

New orders for manufactured goods decreased 2.4% in November
Posted: January 7, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Saturday)

New orders for manufactured goods in November, down following four consecutive monthly increases, decreased $11.3 billion or 2.4 percent to $458.3 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 2.8 percent October increase.

Shipments, down following three consecutive monthly increases, decreased $0.3 billion or 0.1 percent to $463.8 billion. This followed a 0.2 percent October increase. Unfilled orders, down five of the last six months, decreased $1.7 billion or 0.1 percent to $1,127.8 ...

December Employment increased by 156,000
Unemployment Rate increased to 4.7%

Posted: January 6, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 156,000 in December, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job growth occurred in health care and social assistance.

The unemployment rate, at 4.7 percent, and the number of unemployed persons, at 7.5 million, changed little in December. However, both measures edged down in the fourth quarter, after showing little net change earlier in the year. ...

Goods and Services Deficit Increased in November 2016
Posted: January 6, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

The Nation's international trade deficit in goods and services increased to $45.2 billion in November from $42.4 billion in October (revised), as exports decreased and imports increased.

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that the goods and services deficit was $45.2 billion in November, up $2.9 billion from $42.4 billion in October, revised. November exports were $185.8 ...

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index steady at 57.2% in December
Posted: January 5, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in December for the 83rd consecutive month, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The NMI® registered 57.2 percent in December, matching the November figure. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at the same rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index decreased to 61.4 percent, 0.3 percentage point lower than the ...

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 30,000 to 233,000
Posted: January 5, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending December 31, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 235,000, a decrease of 28,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 2,000 from 265,000 to 263,000. The 4-week moving average was 256,750, a decrease of 5,750 from the previous week's revised average. ...

ADP National Employment Report increased by 153,000 jobs in December
Posted: January 5, 2017 at 08:15 AM (Thursday)

Private sector employment increased by 153,000 jobs from November to December according to the December ADP National Employment Report®.

“As we exit 2016, it’s interesting to note that the private sector generated an average of 174,000 jobs per month, down from 209,000 in 2015,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and head of the ADP Research Institute. “And while job gains in December were slightly below our ...

Challenger Layoffs increase to 33,627 in December
Posted: January 5, 2017 at 07:30 AM (Thursday)

The pace of downsizing ticked up slightly to close out 2016, as U.S.-based employers announced plans to shed 33,627 jobs from payrolls in December, according to the report released Thursday by global outplacement consultancy Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.

December job cuts were up 25 percent from November’s 26,936, the lowest monthly total of 2016. The December total was well below the 43,910 job cuts averaged monthly throughout the year. ...

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