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Category: Research - Topic: Economics - 201702



Consumer Confidence increased in February to 114.8
Posted: February 28, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had declined moderately in January, increased in February. The Index now stands at 114.8 (1985=100), up from 111.6 in January. The Present Situation Index rose from 130.0 to 133.4 and the Expectations Index increased from 99.3 last month ...


Richmond Fed's Current Activity Index gained 5 points to a reading of 17
Posted: February 28, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Fifth District manufacturing activity expanded in February, as shipments increased and the volume of new orders rose broadly, according to the latest survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. Employment gains were more common and longer workweeks prevailed. Wage increases were more widespread. Prices paid for inputs rose more rapidly than ...


Chicago Purchasing Managers Index rose by 7.1 points to 57.4 in February
Posted: February 28, 2017 at 09:45 AM (Tuesday)

The MNI Chicago Business Barometer rose by 7.1 points to 57.4 in February from 50.3 in January, the highest reading since January 2015.

Following a slow start to the year, firms have become more optimistic this month. February’s gain was the largest monthly increase since January 2016 when the barometer rose by 12.5 points. This month’s increase was led by four of the five components of the Barometer, with ...


S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices gained 0.2% in December
Posted: February 28, 2017 at 09:00 AM (Tuesday)

S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for December 2016 shows that home prices continued their rise across the country over the last 12 months.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 5.8% annual gain in December, up from 5.6% last month and setting a 30-month high. The 10-City Composite posted a 4.9% annual increase, up ...


4Q2016 GDP preliminary estimate increased 1.9%, 2016 GDP up 1.6%
Posted: February 28, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2016 (table 1), according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.5 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was also 1.9 percent. With the second estimate for the fourth quarter, the general ...


Texas Fed Manufacturing Activity Increased in February
Posted: February 27, 2017 at 10:30 AM (Monday)

Texas factory activity increased for the eighth consecutive month in February, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rose five points to 16.7, suggesting output growth picked up pace ...


Pending Home Sales Index decreased 2.8% in January
Posted: February 27, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

Insufficient supply levels led to a lull in contract activity in the Midwest and West, which dragged down pending home sales in January to their lowest level in a year, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, decreased 2.8 percent to 106.4 in January from an upwardly revised 109.5 in December 2016. Although last month's index reading is 0.4 percent above last January, it is the lowest since ...


January New Orders for Durable Goods increased 1.8%, Ex-Trans down 0.2%
Posted: February 27, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in January increased $4.0 billion or 1.8 percent to $230.4 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up following two consecutive monthly decreases, followed a 0.8 percent December decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.2 percent. Excluding defense, ...


New Home Sales in January at annual rate of 555,000
Posted: February 24, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Sales of new single-family houses in January 2017 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 555,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 3.7 percent (±18.5 percent)* above the revised December rate of 535,000 and is 5.5 percent (±25.4 ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence edged downward in February to 96.3
Posted: February 24, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Although consumer confidence edged downward in February, the overall average in the past three months was the highest in more than a decade. Normally, the implication would be that consumers expected Trump’s election to have a positive economic impact. That is not the case, however, as Democrats expressed expectations that are consistent with ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity expanded further in February
Posted: February 23, 2017 at 11:00 AM (Thursday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity expanded further in February to its highest composite reading since June 2011, and producers’ expectations for future activity remained very strong. Most price indexes recorded little change, with the exception of expected input prices which ...


Chicago Fed National Activity Growth edged down in January
Posted: February 23, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, edged down to –0.03 in January from –0.02 in December. January’s CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was near its historical trend. The economic growth reflected in this level of the CFNAI-MA3 suggests limited inflationary pressure from economic activity over the ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase 6,000 to 244,000
Posted: February 23, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending February 18, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 244,000, an increase of 6,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 1,000 from 239,000 to 238,000. The 4-week moving average was 241,000, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week's revised average. This ...


Existing-Home Sales expanded 3.3% in January
Posted: February 22, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Existing-home sales stepped out to a fast start in 2017, surpassing a recent cyclical high and increasing in January to the fastest pace in almost a decade, according to the National Association of Realtors®. All major regions except for the Midwest saw sales gains ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: February 22, 2017 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 2.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 17, 2017.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 2.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 1 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 1 ...


Philadelphia NonManufacturing Activity Indicators continued to expand in February
Posted: February 21, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Responses to the Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest that business activity continued to expand in February. The firm-level index of general activity increased for the third consecutive month, and the indexes for new orders, sales/revenues, and full-time employment remained positive despite moderating somewhat from their ...


U.S. Leading Economic Index increased 0.6% in January
Posted: February 17, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI)for the U.S. increased 0.6 percent in January to 125.5 (2010 = 100), following a 0.5 percent increase in December, and a 0.2 percent increase in November.

“The U.S. Leading Economic Index increased sharply again in January, pointing to a positive economic outlook in the first half of this year,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “The January gain was broad based ...


January Housing Starts down 2.6%, Permits up 4.6%
Posted: February 16, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Building Permits
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,285,000. This is 4.6 percent (±2.0 percent) above the revised December rate of 1,228,000 and is 8.2 percent (±1.6 percent) above the January 2016 rate of 1,188,000. Single-family authorizations in January were ...


Philadelphia Fed Outlook Reported Activity Improvement Broadened in February
Posted: February 16, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Results from the February Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest that growth in regional manufacturing is broadening. The diffusion indexes for general activity, new orders, and shipments were all positive this month and increased notably from their readings last month. The surveyed firms continued to report growth in employment and ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase 5,000 to 239,000
Posted: February 16, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending February 11, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 239,000, an increase of 5,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 234,000. The 4-week moving average was 245,250, an increase of 500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 500 from 244,250 ...


Treasury International Capital Data for December 2016
Posted: February 15, 2017 at 04:00 PM (Wednesday)

The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for December 2016. The sum total in December of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a monthly net TIC outflow of $42.8 billion. Of this, net foreign private outflows were $57.1 ...


Business Inventories up 0.4% in December
Posted: February 15, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

The U.S. Census Bureau announced the following new manufacturing and trade statistics for December 2016.The combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for December, adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,356.0 billion, up 2.0 percent (±0.2 percent) from ...


Builder Confidence down 2 points to 65 in February
Posted: February 15, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes declined two points in February to a level of 65 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI).

“While builders remain optimistic, we are seeing the numbers settling back into a normal range,” said NAHB Chairman Granger MacDonald, a home builder and developer from Kerrville, Texas. “Regulatory burdens remain a major challenge to our industry, and NAHB looks forward to ...


Industrial Production decreased 0.3%
Capacity Utilization fell to 75.3%

Posted: February 15, 2017 at 09:15 AM (Wednesday)

Industrial production decreased 0.3 percent in January following a 0.6 percent increase in December. In January, manufacturing output moved up 0.2 percent, and mining output jumped 2.8 percent. The index for utilities fell 5.7 percent, largely because unseasonably warm weather reduced the demand for heating. At 104.6 percent of its 2012 ...


Consumer Price Index increased 0.6% in January, Ex Fd & Engy up 0.3%
Posted: February 15, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.6 percent in January on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 2.5 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The January increase was the largest seasonally adjusted all items increase ...


Real Average Hourly Earnings decreased 0.5% in January
Posted: February 15, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased 0.5 percent from December to January, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from a 0.1-percent increase in average hourly earnings combined with a 0.6-percent increase in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban ...


U.S. Retail Sales for January Increase 0.4%, Ex-Auto up 0.8%
Posted: February 15, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for January 2017, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $472.1 billion, an increase of 0.4 percent (±0.5 percent)* from the previous month, and 5.6 percent (±0.9 percent) above January 2016. Total sales for the November ...


Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions continues growth in February
Posted: February 15, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Business activity expanded at a solid clip in New York State, according to firms responding to the February 2017 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index rose twelve points to 18.7, its highest level in more than two years. The new orders index climbed to 13.5, and the shipments index advanced to ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: February 15, 2017 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 3.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 10, 2017.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 3.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 1 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 3 ...


Producer Price Index increased 0.6% in January, ex Fd & Engy up 0.2%
Posted: February 14, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.6 percent in January, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices rose 0.2 percent in December and 0.5 percent in November. On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index climbed 1.6 percent for the 12 months ended ...


NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose 0.1 in January to 105.9
Posted: February 14, 2017 at 07:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Index of Small Business Optimism rose 0.1 points to 105.9, the highest reading since December 2004, sustaining the remarkable surge in optimism that started post-election. Five of the 10 Index components posted a gain and 5 declined, but all by just a few points. After the stunning increases seen after the election, all of the Index ...


Forecasters Predict real GDP will grow at a faster pace
Posted: February 10, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

The U.S. economy looks stronger now than it did three months ago, according to 42 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The forecasters predict real GDP will grow at an annual rate of 2.2 percent this quarter and 2.3 percent next quarter. On an annual-average over annual-average basis, the forecasters predict real ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Preliminary February Results retreated at 95.7
Posted: February 10, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Consumer confidence retreated from the decade-peak recorded in January, with the decline centered in the Expectations Index. To be sure, confidence remains quite favorable, with only five higher readings in the past decade. Importantly, the data do not reflect any closing of the partisan divide. The Michigan survey includes several ...


U.S. Import Price Index increased 0.4% in January
Posted: February 10, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

U.S. import prices advanced 0.4 percent in January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, following a 0.5-percent increase in December. For both months, a rise in fuel prices more than offset declining nonfuel prices. Prices for U.S. exports advanced 0.1 percent in January, after rising 0.4 percent the ...


Wholesale Inventories up 1.0% in December
Posted: February 9, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

December 2016 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading-day differences but not for price changes, were $464.9 billion, up 2.6 percent (±0.7 percent) from the revised November level and were up 6.8 percent (±0.9 percent) from the December 2015 level. ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 12,000 to 234,000
Posted: February 9, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending February 4, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 234,000, a decrease of 12,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 246,000. The 4-week moving average was 244,250, a decrease of 3,750 from the previous week's unrevised average of 248,000. This is the lowest level for this average since November ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: February 8, 2017 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 2.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 3, 2017.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 2.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 6 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 2 ...


Consumer Credit Increased at an annual rate of 4.50%
Posted: February 7, 2017 at 03:00 PM (Tuesday)

Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6 percent during the fourth quarter. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 6-3/4 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 5-3/4 percent. In December, consumer credit increased at an annual rate of ...


Job Openings was little changed at 5.5 million in December
Posted: February 7, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The number of job openings was little changed at 5.5 million on the last business day of December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires and separations were also little changed at 5.3 million and 5.0 million, respectively. Within separations, the quits rate was little changed at 2.0 percent and the layoffs ...


Goods and Services Deficit decreased in December 2016
Posted: February 7, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

The Nation's international trade deficit in goods and services decreased to $44.3 billion in December from $45.7 billion in November (revised), as exports increased more than imports.

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that the goods and services deficit was $44.3 billion in December, down $1.5 billion from $45.7 billion in November, revised. December exports were $190.7 ...


Employment Trends Index increased slightly in January to 130.04
Posted: February 6, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) increased slightly in January, after declining in December. The index now stands at 130.04, up from 129.73(r) in December. The change represents a 2.4 percent gain in the ETI compared to a year ago.

“The continued growth in the Employment Trends Index suggests that job growth will remain solid and perhaps even accelerate in early 2017,” said Gad Levanon, Chief Economist, North America, at The Conference Board. “In both business confidence surveys and hard data, it ...


New orders for manufactured goods increased 1.3% in December
Posted: February 3, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

New orders for manufactured goods in December, up five of the last six months, increased $6.1 billion or 1.3 percent to $464.9 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 2.3 percent November decrease.

Shipments, up nine of the last ten months, increased $10.4 billion or 2.2 percent to $475.8 billion. This followed a 0.3 percent November increase. Unfilled orders, down six of the last seven months, decreased $7.1 billion or 0.6 percent to $1,119.5 billion. This followed a ...


ISM Non-Manufacturing Index dipped to 56.5% in January
Posted: February 3, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in January for the 85th consecutive month, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The NMI® registered 56.5 percent which is 0.1 percentage point lower than the seasonally adjusted December reading of 56.6. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a slightly slower rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index decreased to ...


January Employment increased by 227,000
Unemployment Rate increased to 4.8%

Posted: February 3, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 227,000 in January, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in retail trade, construction, and financial activities.

Both the number of unemployed persons, at 7.6 million, and the unemployment rate, at 4.8 percent, were little changed in January. (See table A-1. For information about annual population adjustments to the household survey estimates, see the notes at the end of this news ...


4Q2016 Productivity Growth Increased 1.3%
Posted: February 2, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased at a 1.3-percent annual rate during the fourth quarter of 2016, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, as output increased 2.2 percent and hours worked increased 0.9 percent. (All quarterly percent changes in this release are seasonally adjusted annual rates.) From the ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 14,000 to 246,000
Posted: February 2, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending January 28, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 246,000, a decrease of 14,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 259,000 to 260,000. The 4-week moving average was 248,000, an increase of 2,250 from the previous week's revised average. ...


New York Purchasing Managers Business Activity dropped in January to 57.7
Posted: February 2, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

New York City purchasing managers maintained their optimism while adjusting to 'new' normal business conditions in January, according to the survey taken by the Institute for Supply Management-New York. With the exception of Quantity of Purchases, which was just below the breakeven point, all report indices stayed in growth territory in ...


Challenger Layoffs increase to 45,934 in January
Posted: February 2, 2017 at 07:30 AM (Thursday)

In all, retailers announced 22,491 planned layoffs in January, accounting for 49 percent of all job cuts recorded during the month. The January total is virtually unchanged from the previous January, when retailers announced 22,246 job cuts to start 2016.

“A January surge in retail hiring has become the standard. Most retailers ramp up hiring in the final three months of the year to handle the holiday rush. However, as consumers increasingly go online to shop, retailers are not only dismissing temporary seasonal workers, but ...


FOMC target funds rate reaffirmed at 1/2 to 3/4%
Posted: February 1, 2017 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has continued to expand at a moderate pace. Job gains remained solid and the unemployment rate stayed near its recent low. Household spending has continued to rise moderately ...


January Manufacturing ISM registered 56.0
Posted: February 1, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in January, and the overall economy grew for the 92nd consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Bradley J. Holcomb, CPSM, CPSD, chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee; “The January PMI® registered 56 percent, an increase of 1.5 percentage points from the seasonally adjusted December ...



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Founded in 1920, the National Bureau of Economic Research is a private, nonprofit, nonpartisan research organization dedicated to promoting a greater understanding of how the economy works.

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The Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission was created to examine the causes, domestic and global, of the current financial and economic crisis in the United States.

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