Consumer sentiment has traveled on the high plateau established following Trump’s election, with only minor deviations from its five month average of 97.4. There is widespread agreement among consumers on their very positive assessments of the current state of the economy as well as widespread disagreement on future economic prospects. ...

The MNI Chicago Business Barometer increased to 58.3 in April from 57.7 in March, the highest level since January 2015.

Optimism among firms about business conditions rose for the third month in a row. Three of the five Barometer components led April’s increase, with Production and Order Backlogs receding. ...

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 0.7 percent in the first quarter of 2017, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2016, real GDP increased 2.1 percent.

The increase in real GDP in the first quarter reflected positive contributions from nonresidential fixed investment, exports, residential fixed investment, and personal consumption expenditures (PCE), that were offset by negative contributions from private inventory ...

Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.8 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in March 2017, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Wages and salaries (which make up about 70 percent of compensation costs) increased 0.8 percent, and benefits (which make up the remaining 30 percent of ...

Tenth District manufacturing activity expanded at a somewhat slower pace in April, and expectations for future activity eased but remained at solid levels. Price indexes were mixed, but recorded little change overall.

The month-over-month composite index was 7 in April, down from the very strong readings of 20 in March and 14 in February (Tables 1 & 2, Chart). The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory ...

Pending home sales in March maintained their recent high level, but momentum slackened slightly in most of the country as dearth supply weighed on activity, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Only the South saw an uptick in contract signings last month.

The Pending Home Sales Index, www.nar.realtor/topics/pending-home-sales, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, declined 0.8 percent to 111.4 in March from 112.3 in February. Despite last month's decrease, the index is 0.8 percent above a year ago. ...

New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in March increased $1.6 billion or 0.7 percent to $238.7 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up three consecutive months, followed a 2.3 percent February increase. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.2 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased ...

In the week ending April 22, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 257,000, an increase of 14,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 1,000 from 244,000 to 243,000. The 4-week moving average was 242,250, a decrease of 500 from the previous week's revised average. ...

Mortgage applications increased 2.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 21, 2017.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 2.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 3 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 7 ...

Sales of new single-family houses in March 2017 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 621,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 5.8 percent (±15.5 percent)* above the revised February rate of 587,000 and is 15.6 percent (±15.0 percent) ...

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had increased in March, declined in April. The Index now stands at 120.3 (1985=100), down from 124.9 in March. The Present Situation Index decreased from 143.9 to 140.6 and the Expectations Index declined from 112.3 last month ...

Manufacturers in the Fifth District were upbeat again in April, according to the latest survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The index for shipments rose and the index for new orders remained very strong. Even though the index for employment fell, the composite index for manufacturing remained high, with a reading of 20 in ...

S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for February 2017 shows that home prices continued their rise across the country over the last 12 months.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 5.8% annual gain in February, up from 5.6% last month and setting a 32-month high. The 10-City Composite posted a 5.2% annual increase, up ...

Firms responding to April’s Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey reported that regional nonmanufacturing activity continued to expand. The index for current firm-level activity rose slightly, while the indexes for new orders, sales/revenues, and employment increased by greater amounts. Both the prices paid and prices received indexes ...

Texas factory activity increased for the 10th consecutive month in April, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, moved down three points to 15.4, suggesting output growth continued but at a slightly slower pace ...

The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, edged down to +0.11 in March from +0.15 in February. Forty-eight of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in March, while 37 made negative contributions. Thirty-seven indicators improved from February to March, while 47 indicators ...

Existing-home sales took off in March to their highest pace in over 10 years, and severe supply shortages resulted in the typical home coming off the market significantly faster than in February and a year ago, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Only the West saw a decline in sales activity in ...

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI)for the U.S. increased 0.4 percent in March to 126.7 (2010 = 100), following a 0.5 percent increase in February, and a 0.6 percent increase in January.

“The March increase and upward trend in the U.S. LEI point to continued economic growth in 2017, with perhaps an acceleration later in the year if consumer spending and investment pick up,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The ...

In the week ending April 15, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 244,000, an increase of 10,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 234,000. The 4-week moving average was 243,000, a decrease of 4,250 from the previous week's unrevised average ...

Results from the April Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest that regional manufacturing activity continued to expand, but at a slower pace than last month. The diffusion indexes for general activity, new orders, and shipments remained positive but fell from their readings in March. The current employment index, however, improved ...

Economic activity increased in each of the twelve Federal Reserve Districts between mid-February and the end of March, with the pace of expansion equally split between modest and moderate. In addition, the pickup was evident to varying degrees across economic sectors. Manufacturing continued to expand at a modest to moderate pace, although ...

Mortgage applications decreased 1.8 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 14, 2017. This week's results do not include an adjustment for the Good ...

Industrial production increased 0.5 percent in March after moving up 0.1 percent in February. The increase in March was more than accounted for by a jump of 8.6 percent in the output of utilities—the largest in the history of the index—as the demand for heating returned to seasonal norms after being suppressed by unusually warm weather ...

Building Permits
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,260,000. This is 3.6 percent (±2.8 percent) above the revised February rate of 1,216,000 and is 17.0 percent (±1.2 percent) above the March 2016 rate of 1,077,000. Single-family authorizations in March were at ...

The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for February 2017. The sum total in February of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a monthly net TIC inflow of $19.3 billion. Of this, net foreign private inflows were $30.9 billion, ...

Builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes remained solid in April, falling three points to a level of 68 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) after an unusually high March reading.

“Even with this month’s modest drop, builder confidence is on very firm ground, and builders are reporting strong interest among potential home buyers,” said NAHB Chairman Granger MacDonald, a home builder and developer from Kerrville, Texas. ...

Business activity grew at a more subdued pace in New York State, according to firms responding to the April 2017 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index fell eleven points to 5.2. The new orders index, which had climbed to a multiyear high in March, retreated sharply to 7.0 in April, suggesting more ...

The U.S. Census Bureau announced the following new manufacturing and trade statistics for February 2017. The combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for February, adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,360.7 billion, up 0.2 percent (±0.2 percent)* ...

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) decreased 0.3 percent in March on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 2.4 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The March decline was the first 1-month decrease in the seasonally adjusted all items index since February 2016. A decline in the gasoline index was the largest factor, with a decrease in the index for wireless telephone services also contributing. The energy index declined ...

Real average hourly earnings for all employees increased 0.5 percent from February to March, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from a 0.2-percent increase in average hourly earnings combined with a 0.3-percent decrease in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban ...

The U.S. Census Bureau announced the following advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for March 2017. Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for March 2017, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $470.8 billion, a decrease of 0.2 percent ...

Consumer sentiment inched upward in early April mainly due to more favorable views of current economic conditions. The Current Economic Conditions Index rose to its highest level since 2000 and nearly reached its all-time peak of 121.1 set in 1999. The Expectations Index improved only slightly, remaining largely unchanged at favorable levels ...

In the week ending April 8, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 234,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 234,000 to 235,000. The 4-week moving average was 247,250, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week's revised average. The ...

The Producer Price Index for final demand declined 0.1 percent in March, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices advanced 0.3 percent in February and 0.6 percent in January. On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index rose 2.3 percent for the 12 months ended March 2017, the largest ...

U.S. import prices declined 0.2 percent in March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, following increases in each of the 3 previous months. The March downturn was driven by lower fuel import prices which more than offset rising nonfuel prices. In contrast, the price index for U.S. exports increased 0.2 percent in March, ...

Mortgage applications increased 1.5 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 7, 2017.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 1.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 3 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index remained ...

The number of job openings was little changed at 5.7 million on the last business day of February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires and separations were also little changed at 5.3 million and 5.1 million, respectively. Within separations, the quits rate was little changed at 2.1 percent, and the layoffs ...

The Index of Small Business Optimism fell 0.6 points to 104.7, sustaining the remarkable surge in optimism that started November 9, 2016, the day after the election. Three of the 10 Index components posted a gain, five declined, all by just a few points, and two were unchanged. It is encouraging that the Index has held at historically high ...

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) increased in March, after a sharp increase in February. The index now stands at 131.43, up from 131.09 (a downward revision) in February. The change represents a 4.3 percent gain in the ETI compared to a year ago.

“The Employment Trends Index continued to expand in March, suggesting that solid job growth will continue through the spring,” said Gad Levanon, Chief Economist, North America, at The Conference Board. “The surprisingly weak job growth in March is mostly noise in an ...

In February, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4-3/4 percent. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 3-1/2 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 5-1/4 percent.

...

February 2017 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading-day differences but not for price changes, were $464.9 billion, up 0.6 percent (±0.4 percent) from the revised January level and were up 9.9 percent (±1.1 percent) from the February 2016 level. ...

The unemployment rate declined to 4.5 percent in March, and total nonfarm payroll employment edged up by 98,000, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in professional and business services and in mining, while retail trade lost jobs.

Household Survey Data
The unemployment rate decreased by 0.2 percentage point to 4.5 percent in March, and the number of unemployed persons declined by 326,000 to 7.2 million. Both measures were down over the year. ...

In the week ending April 1, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 234,000, a decrease of 25,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 258,000 to 259,000. The 4-week moving average was 250,000, a decrease of 4,500 from the previous week's revised average. The ...

Job cuts announced by US-based employers rose 17 percent from the February total of 36,957 to 43,310 in March, according to the latest report on monthly job cuts released Thursday by global outplacement consultancy Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.

March announcements are 2 percent lower than the same month last year, when employers announced plans to eliminate 44,207 jobs from their ranks. Last month’s total is the third consecutive month of lower job cuts than the corresponding month a year earlier. ...

Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in March for the 87th consecutive month, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The NMI® registered 55.2 percent, which is 2.4 percentage points lower than the February reading of 57.6 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a slower rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index decreased to 58.9 percent, 4.7 ...

Online advertised vacancies increased 102,000 to 4,639,700 in March, according to The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Data Series,released today. The February Supply/Demand rate stands at 1.66 unemployed for each advertised vacancy with a total of 2.9 million more unemployed workers than the number of advertised vacancies. The ...

Private sector employment increased by 263,000 jobs from February to March according to the March ADP National Employment Report®.

“The U.S. labor market finished the first quarter on a strong note,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “Consumer dependent industries including healthcare, leisure and hospitality, and trade had strong growth during the month.” ...

Mortgage applications decreased 1.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 31, 2017.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 1.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 1 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 4 ...

New orders for manufactured goods in February, up seven of the last eight months, increased $4.8 billion or 1.0 percent to $476.5 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 1.5 percent January increase. Shipments, up eleven of the last twelve months, increased $1.4 billion or 0.3 percent to $480.0 billion. This followed a ...

The Nation's international trade deficit in goods and services decreased to $43.6 billion in February from $48.2 billion in January (revised), as exports increased and imports decreased.

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that the goods and services deficit was $43.6 billion in February, down $4.6 billion from $48.2 billion in January, revised. February exports were $192.9 ...