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Category: Research - Topic: Economics - 201705



Beige Book: Economic Activity continued to expand at a modest or moderate pace
Posted: May 31, 2017 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

Most of the twelve Federal Reserve Districts reported that their economies continued to expand at a modest or moderate pace from early April through late May. Boston and Chicago signaled that growth in their Districts had slowed somewhat to a modest pace since the prior Beige Book period, while New York indicated that activity had flattened ...


Help Wanted OnLine Labor Demand increased 195,600 to 4,809,200 in May
Posted: May 31, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Online advertised vacancies increased 195,600 to 4,809,200 in May, according to The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Data Series,released today. The April Supply/Demand rate stands at 1.53 unemployed for each advertised vacancy, with a total of 2.4 million more unemployed workers than the number of advertised vacancies. The number ...


Pending Home Sales Index decreased 1.3% in April
Posted: May 31, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Pending home sales in April slumped for the second consecutive month and were down year-over-year nationally and in all four major regions, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Only the West saw an increase in contract signings last month.

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, decreased 1.3 percent to 109.8 in April from a downwardly revised 111.3 in March. After last month's decline, the index is now 3.3 percent below a year ago, which is the first ...


Chicago Purchasing Managers Index up by 1.1 points to 59.4 in May
Posted: May 31, 2017 at 09:45 AM (Wednesday)

The MNI Chicago Business Barometer increased to 59.4 in May from 58.3 in April, the highest level since November 2014.

Optimism among firms about business conditions rose for the fourth consecutive month. Four of the five Barometer components led May’s increase, with only New Orders receding. ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: May 31, 2017 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 3.4 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 26, 2017.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 3.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 4 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 6 ...


Texas Fed Manufacturing Activity Increased at a faster pace in May
Posted: May 30, 2017 at 10:30 AM (Tuesday)

Texas factory activity increased at a faster pace in May, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, moved up eight points to 23.3, reaching its highest level since ...


Consumer Confidence declined slightly in May to 117.9
Posted: May 30, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had decreased in April, declined slightly in May. The Index now stands at 117.9 (1985=100), down from 119.4 in April. The Present Situation Index increased marginally from 140.3 to 140.7, while the Expectations Index declined from 105.4 last month to 102.6 ...


S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices gained 0.8% in March
Posted: May 30, 2017 at 09:00 AM (Tuesday)

S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for March 2017 shows that home prices continued their rise across the country over the last 12 months.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 5.8% annual gain in March, up from 5.7% last month and setting a 33-month high. The 10-City Composite and the 20-City Composite indices came ...


Personal Income increased 0.4%, Spending increased 0.4%
Posted: May 30, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Personal income increased $58.4 billion (0.4 percent) in April according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $56.5 billion (0.4 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $53.2 billion ...


Paychex-IHS Small Business Jobs Index declined to 100.34 in May
Posted: May 30, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

The Paychex | IHS Markit Small Business Employment Watch for May shows a continued decline in small business jobs growth, but an increase in wages for the fourth consecutive month. According to the report, the Small Business Jobs Index declined 0.16 percent in May to 100.34, a 0.25 percent decrease in growth year-over-year and its ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence increased in April to 97.1
Posted: May 26, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Consumer sentiment has continued to move along the high plateau established following Trump’s election. The May 2017 figure was virtually unchanged from the April reading, and nearly identical with the December to May average of 97.3. Moreover, the partisan divide between Democrats and Republicans has also remained largely unchanged, with ...


1Q2017 GDP preliminary estimate increased 1.2%
Posted: May 26, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.2 percent in the first quarter of 2017, according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 2.1 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 0.7 percent. With this second estimate for the first quarter, the general picture of ...


April New Orders for Durable Goods Decreased 0.7%, Ex-Trans down 0.4%
Posted: May 26, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in April decreased $1.6 billion or 0.7 percent to $231.2 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This decrease, down following four consecutive monthly increases, followed a 2.3 percent March increase. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.4 percent. Excluding defense, ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity expanded at a moderate pace in May
Posted: May 25, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity continued to expand at a moderate pace in May, and expectations for future activity increased strongly. Price indexes were mixed, but recorded little change overall.

The month-over-month composite index was 8 in May, up from 7 in April but down from 20 in March. The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes. Activity at durable manufacturing ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase 1,000 to 234,000
Posted: May 25, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending May 20, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 234,000, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 232,000 to 233,000. The 4-week moving average was 235,250, a decrease of 5,750 from the previous week's revised average. This is ...


Existing-Home Sales Slip 2.3% in April
Posted: May 24, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Stubbornly low supply levels held down existing-home sales in April and also pushed the median number of days a home was on the market to a new low of 29 days, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

Total existing-home sales, https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, dipped 2.3 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.57 million in April from a ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: May 24, 2017 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 4.4 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 19, 2017.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 4.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 3 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 11 ...


New Home Sales in April at annual rate of 569,000
Posted: May 23, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Sales of new single-family houses in April 2017 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 569,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 11.4 percent (±10.5 percent) below the revised March rate of 642,000, but is 0.5 percent (±11.3 percent)* ...


Richmond Fed's Current Activity Index lost 19 points to a reading of 1
Posted: May 23, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Manufacturers in the Fifth District were somewhat less upbeat in May than in the prior three months, according to the latest survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The index for shipments and the index for new orders decreased notably, with the shipments index falling to slightly below 0. The index for employment was relatively flat, ...


Philadelphia NonManufacturing Activity Indicators continued to expand in May
Posted: May 23, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Responses to the Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest that business activity continued to expand in May. However, all of the diffusion indexes moderated from the prior month, and almost all are now nearer to their historical averages. Most noteworthy, the index of general activity at the firm level registered its lowest reading in ...


Chicago Fed National Activity Growth increased in April
Posted: May 22, 2017 at 08:00 AM (Monday)

The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, moved to +0.16 in April from +0.06 in March. Forty-six of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in April, while 39 made negative contributions. Forty indicators improved from March to April, while 44 indicators deteriorated and one was ...


U.S. Leading Economic Index increased 0.3% in April
Posted: May 18, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI)for the U.S. increased 0.3 percent in April to 126.9 (2010 = 100), following a 0.3 percent increase in March, and a 0.5 percent increase in February.

“The recent trend in the U.S. LEI, led by the positive outlook of consumers and financial markets, continues to point to a growing economy, perhaps even a cyclical pickup,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 4,000 to 232,000
Posted: May 18, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending May 13, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 232,000, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 236,000. The 4-week moving average was 240,750, a decrease of 2,750 from the previous week's unrevised average ...


Philadelphia Fed Outlook Reported Activity continued to expand in May
Posted: May 18, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Results from the May Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest that regional manufacturing activity continued to expand this month. The diffusion indexes for general activity and shipments improved notably from their April readings. The indexes for new orders and employment, however, fell modestly from last month but remained at high ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: May 17, 2017 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 4.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 12, 2017.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 4.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 4 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 6 ...


Industrial Production increased 1.0%
Capacity Utilization increased to 76.7%

Posted: May 16, 2017 at 09:15 AM (Tuesday)

Industrial production advanced 1.0 percent in April for its third consecutive monthly increase and its largest gain since February 2014. Manufacturing output rose 1.0 percent as a result of widespread increases among its major industries. The indexes for mining and utilities posted gains of 1.2 percent and 0.7 percent, respectively. At ...


April Housing Starts down 2.6%, Permits down 2.5%
Posted: May 16, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Building Permits
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,229,000. This is 2.5 percent (±1.1 percent) below the revised March rate of 1,260,000, but is 5.7 percent (±1.4 percent) above the April 2016 rate of 1,163,000. Single-family authorizations in April were at a ...


Treasury International Capital Data for March 2017
Posted: May 15, 2017 at 04:00 PM (Monday)

The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for March 2017. The sum total in March of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a monthly net TIC outflow of $0.7 billion. Of this, net foreign private inflows were $25.4 billion, and ...


Builder Confidence rose 2 points to 70 in May
Posted: May 15, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

In a further sign that the housing market continues to strengthen, builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes rose two points in May to a level of 70 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). This is the second highest HMI reading since ...


Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions were little changed in May
Posted: May 15, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

Business activity leveled off in New York State, according to firms responding to the May 2017 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index fell six points to -1.0. The new orders index dropped to -4.4, suggesting a small decline in orders, and the shipments index edged down to 10.6, indicating that ...


Business Inventories up 0.2% in March
Posted: May 12, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

The combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for March, adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,361.0 billion, virtually unchanged (±0.1 percent)* from February 2017, but was up 6.5 percent (±0.4 percent) from ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Preliminary May Results at 97.7
Posted: May 12, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Consumer sentiment remained on the high plateau established following Trump's election, with the early May figure nearly identical with the December to May average of 97.4. The Trump bump was relatively small given that the Sentiment Index averaged 91.8 in the comparable six month period a year ago and 94.5 in the same period two years ago. ...


Forecasters Predict real GDP will grow at a faster pace
Posted: May 12, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

The U.S. economy over the next four quarters looks slightly stronger now than it did three months ago, according to 37 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The forecasters predict real GDP will grow at an annual rate of 3.1 percent this quarter, up from the previous estimate of 2.3 percent. Quarterly growth over ...


Consumer Price Index increased 0.2% in April, Ex Fd & Engy rose 0.1%
Posted: May 12, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent in April on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 2.2 percent before seasonal adjustment.

Increases in indexes for shelter, energy, tobacco, and food all contributed to the monthly increase in the all items index. The energy index rose 1.1 percent, with all 3 of its major component indexes rising. The food index rose 0.2 percent, mostly due to a sharp increase ...


Real Average Hourly Earnings increased 0.1% in April
Posted: May 12, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Real average hourly earnings for all employees increased 0.1 percent from March to April, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from a 0.3-percent increase in average hourly earnings combined with a 0.2-percent increase in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban ...


U.S. Retail Sales for April Increase 0.4%, Ex-Auto up 0.3%
Posted: May 12, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for April 2017, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $474.9 billion, an increase of 0.4 percent (±0.5 percent)* from the previous month, and 4.5 percent (±0.9 percent) above April 2016. Total sales for the February ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 2,000 to 236,000
Posted: May 11, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending May 6, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 236,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 238,000. The 4-week moving average was 243,500, an increase of 500 from the previous week's unrevised average ...


Producer Price Index increased 0.5% in April, ex Fd & Engy up 0.7%
Posted: May 11, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

The Producer Price Index for final demand advanced 0.5 percent in April, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices edged down 0.1 percent in March and climbed 0.3 percent in February. On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index rose 2.5 percent for the 12 months ended April 2017, the ...


U.S. Import Price Index advanced 0.5% in April
Posted: May 10, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

The price index for U.S. imports advanced 0.5 percent in April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, after ticking up 0.1 percent the previous month. Higher fuel prices and nonfuel prices each contributed to the increase in April. U.S. export prices rose 0.2 percent in April following a 0.1-percent advance in March. Prices for ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: May 10, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 2.4 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 5, 2017.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 2.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 3 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 3 ...


Job Openings was little changed at 5.7 million in March
Posted: May 9, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The number of job openings was little changed at 5.7 million on the last business day of March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires and separations were also little changed at 5.3 million and 5.1 million, respectively. Within separations, the quits and the layoffs and discharges rates were unchanged at ...


Wholesale Inventories up 0.4% in March
Posted: May 9, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

March 2017 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading-day differences but not for price changes, were $465.5 billion, virtually unchanged (±0.4 percent) from the revised February level, but were up 9.1 percent (±1.1 percent) from the March 2016 level. ...


NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 0.2 in April to 104.5
Posted: May 9, 2017 at 07:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Index of Small Business Optimism fell 0.2 points to 104.5, sustaining the remarkable surge in optimism that started the day after the election. Five of the 10 Index components posted a gain, three declined, and two were unchanged. The Index has posted historically record high readings for six months, a performance eclipsed only in 1983. ...


Employment Trends Index increased sharply in April to 132.64
Posted: May 8, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) increased sharply in April, following an increase in March. The index now stands at 132.64, up from 131.58 (an upward revision) in March. The change represents a 4.1 percent gain in the ETI compared to a year ago.

“The Employment Trends Index has been expanding rapidly in 2017, suggesting that robust job growth will continue into the summer,” said Gad Levanon, Chief Economist, North America, at The Conference Board. “A tight labor market is about to get much tighter, with solid ...


Consumer Credit Increased at an annual rate of 5.25%
Posted: May 5, 2017 at 03:00 PM (Friday)

Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4-1/4 percent during the first quarter. Revolving credit was little changed, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 5-3/4 percent. In March, consumer credit increased at an annual rate of ...


April Employment increased by 211,000
Unemployment Rate dipped to 4.4%

Posted: May 5, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 211,000 in April, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.4 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, health care and social assistance, financial activities, ...


New orders for manufactured goods increased 0.2% in March
Posted: May 4, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

New orders for manufactured goods in March, up eight of the last nine months, increased $0.8 billion or 0.2 percent to $478.2 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 1.2 percent February increase. Shipments, down following seven consecutive monthly increases, decreased $0.5 billion or 0.1 percent to $478.8 billion. ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 19,000 to 238,000
Posted: May 4, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending April 29, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 238,000, a decrease of 19,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 257,000. The 4-week moving average was 243,000, an increase of 750 from the previous week's unrevised average ...


Goods and Services Deficit Decreased in March 2017
Posted: May 4, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

The Nation's international trade deficit in goods and services decreased to $43.7 billion in March from $43.8 billion in February (revised), as imports decreased more than exports.

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that the goods and services deficit was $43.7 billion in March, down $0.1 billion from $43.8 billion in February, revised. March exports were $191.0 billion, ...


1Q2017 Productivity Growth Decreased 0.6%
Posted: May 4, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity decreased at a 0.6-percent annual rate during the first quarter of 2017, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, as output increased 1.0 percent and hours worked increased 1.6 percent. (All quarterly percent changes in this release are seasonally adjusted annual rates.) From the first ...



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