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Category: Research - Topic: Economics - 201706



Chicago Purchasing Managers Index rose by 6.1 points to 65.7 in June
Posted: June 30, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

The MNI Chicago Business Barometer rose to 65.7 in June from 59.4 in May, the highest level in over three years.

Optimism among firms about business conditions rose for the fifth consecutive month. Four of the five Barometer components led June’s increase, with only Employment falling, albeit slightly. Successive rises in the barometer left the Q2 calendar quarter average at 61.1, ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence slipped in June to 95.1
Posted: June 30, 2017 at 09:45 AM (Friday)

Consumer confidence slipped to its lowest level since Trump was elected, although the overall level still remains quite favorable. The average level of the Sentiment Index during the first half of 2017 was 96.8, the best half-year average since the second half of 2000, and the partisan gap between Democrats and Republicans stood at 39 ...


Personal Income increased 0.4%, Spending increased 0.1%
Posted: June 30, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Personal income increased $67.1 billion (0.4 percent) in May according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $71.7 billion (0.5 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $7.3 billion ...


1Q2017 GDP final estimate increased 1.4%
Posted: June 29, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.4 percent in the first quarter of 2017, according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2016, real GDP increased 2.1 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "second" estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was 1.2 percent. With the third estimate for the first quarter, personal consumption ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase 2,000 to 244,000
Posted: June 29, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending June 24, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 244,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 241,000 to 242,000. The 4-week moving average was 242,250, a decrease of 2,750 from the previous week's revised average. The ...


Pending Home Sales Index decreased 0.8% in May
Posted: June 28, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

The ongoing supply shortages that are propping up home prices in many metro areas caused pending home sales in May to slump for the third consecutive month, according to the National Association of Realtors®. None of the major regions saw an increase in contract activity ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: June 28, 2017 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 6.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending June 23, 2017.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 6.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 7 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 9 ...


Consumer Confidence increased moderately in June to 118.9
Posted: June 27, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had decreased in May, increased moderately in June. The Index now stands at 118.9 (1985=100), up from 117.6 in May. The Present Situation Index increased from 140.6 to 146.3, while the Expectations Index declined from 102.3 last month ...


Richmond Fed's Current Activity Index rose 6 points to a reading of 7
Posted: June 27, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Reports from Fifth District manufacturers improved in June, according to the latest survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index rose from 1 in May to 7 in June, as the indexes for shipments and new orders increased. The employment index was relatively flat. Most firms continued to report steady or ...


S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices gained 0.9% in April
Posted: June 27, 2017 at 09:00 AM (Tuesday)

S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for April 2017 shows that home prices continued their rise across the country over the last 12 months.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 5.5% annual gain in April, down from 5.6% last month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 4.9%, down from 5.2% the previous ...


Texas Fed Manufacturing Activity Expanded but at a Slower Pace in June
Posted: June 26, 2017 at 10:30 AM (Monday)

Texas factory activity increased in June, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, fell 11 points to 12.3, indicating output grew but at a slower pace than ...


May New Orders for Durable Goods Decreased 1.1%, Ex-Trans up 1.0%
Posted: June 26, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in May decreased $2.5 billion or 1.1 percent to $228.2 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This decrease, down two consecutive months, followed a 0.9 percent April decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.1 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased ...


Chicago Fed National Activity Growth is slower in May
Posted: June 26, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, decreased to –0.08 in May from +0.10 in April. Thirty-two of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in May, while 53 made negative contributions. Twenty-six indicators improved from April to May, while 56 indicators deteriorated and three ...


New Home Sales in May at annual rate of 610,000
Posted: June 23, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Sales of new single-family houses in May 2017 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 610,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 2.9 percent (±13.0 percent)* above the revised April rate of 593,000 and is 8.9 percent (±21.9 percent)* above ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity expanded further in June
Posted: June 22, 2017 at 11:00 AM (Thursday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity expanded further in June, and expectations for future activity remained strong. Price indexes were mixed, with some increases in raw materials prices.

The month-over-month composite index was 11 in June, up from 8 in May and 7 in April. The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes. Activity increased moderately at both durable and ...


U.S. Leading Economic Index increased 0.3% in May
Posted: June 22, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.3 percent in May to 127.0 (2010 = 100), following a 0.2 percent increase in April, and a 0.4 percent increase in March.

“The U.S. LEI continued on its upward trend in May, suggesting the economy is likely to remain on, or perhaps even moderately above, its long-term trend of about 2 percent growth for the remainder of the year,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase 3,000 to 241,000
Posted: June 22, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending June 17, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 241,000, an increase of 3,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 237,000 to 238,000. The 4-week moving average was 244,750, an increase of 1,500 from the previous week's revised average. The ...


Existing-Home Sales Up 1.1% in May
Posted: June 21, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Existing-home sales rebounded in May following a notable decline in April, and low inventory levels helped propel the median sales price to a new high while pushing down the median days a home is on the market to a new low, according to the National Association of Realtors®. All major regions except for the Midwest saw an increase in sales ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: June 21, 2017 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 0.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending June 16, 2017.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 0.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 0.4 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 2 ...


1Q2017 Current Account Deficit Increased
Posted: June 20, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

The U.S. current-account deficit increased to $116.8 billion (preliminary) in the first quarter of 2017 from $114.0 billion (revised) in the fourth quarter of 2016, according to statistics released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The deficit increased to 2.5 percent of current dollar gross domestic product (GDP) from 2.4 percent in ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Preliminary June Results at 94.5
Posted: June 16, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

The modest early June drop of 2.6 points in the Sentiment Index masks a much larger decline since June 8th. Prior to that date the Sentiment Index had averaged 97.7, but since June 8th, the Index fell to 86.7, a decline of 11.0 points. While this break corresponds with James Comey's testimony, only a few consumers spontaneously referred to him ...


May Housing Starts down 5.5%, Permits down 4.9%
Posted: June 16, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Building Permits
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,168,000. This is 4.9 percent (±0.9 percent) below the revised April rate of 1,228,000 and is 0.8 percent (±1.1 percent)* below the May 2016 rate of 1,178,000. Single-family authorizations in May were at a rate ...


Treasury International Capital Data for April 2017
Posted: June 15, 2017 at 04:00 PM (Thursday)

The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for April 2017. The sum total in April of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a monthly net TIC inflow of $65.8 billion. Of this, net foreign private inflows were $72.8 billion, and ...


Builder Confidence down 2 points to 67 in June
Posted: June 15, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes weakened slightly in June, down two points to a level of 67 from a downwardly revised May reading of 69 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI).

“Builder confidence levels have remained consistently sound this year, reflecting the ongoing gradual recovery of the housing market,” said NAHB Chairman Granger MacDonald, a home builder and developer from Kerrville, Texas. ...


Industrial Production unchanged%
Capacity Utilization decreased to 76.6%

Posted: June 15, 2017 at 09:15 AM (Thursday)

Industrial production was unchanged in May following a large increase in April and smaller increases in February and March. Manufacturing output declined 0.4 percent in May; the index is little changed, on net, since February. The indexes for mining and utilities posted gains of 1.6 percent and 0.4 percent, respectively, in May. At 105.0 ...


U.S. Import Price Index declined 0.3% in May
Posted: June 15, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

U.S. import prices declined 0.3 percent in May, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, after increasing 0.2 percent in April. Lower fuel prices drove the decrease in May and nonfuel prices recorded no change. The price index for U.S. exports declined 0.7 percent in May following a 0.2-percent advance ...


Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions Bounces Back in June
Posted: June 15, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Business activity rebounded strongly in New York State, according to firms responding to the June 2017 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index shot up twenty-one points to 19.8, its highest level in more than two years. The new orders index posted a similar increase, rising twenty-three points to 18.1, ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 8,000 to 237,000
Posted: June 15, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending June 10, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 237,000, a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 245,000. The 4-week moving average was 243,000, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week's unrevised average ...


Philadelphia Fed Outlook Reported Activity continued to reflect growth in June
Posted: June 15, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Regional manufacturing continues to expand, according to results from the June Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The diffusion index for general activity fell from its reading in May but remained positive and continued to reflect growth. Although many of the future indicators also declined, firms continue to expect growth over the next ...


Philadelphia NonManufacturing Activity Indicators continued to expand in June
Posted: June 15, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Respondents to the Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey reported that business activity continued to expand in the region in June. The index for firm-level general activity rose slightly. The survey’s indicators for sales/revenues and full-time employment showed notable increases. Firms reported a slower pace of increases in input prices ...


FOMC target funds range raised to 1.00% - 1.25%
Posted: June 14, 2017 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in May indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising moderately so far this year. Job gains have moderated but have been solid, on average, since the beginning of the year, and the unemployment rate has declined. ...


Business Inventories down 0.2% in April
Posted: June 14, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

The combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for April, adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,352.0 billion, virtually unchanged (±0.2 percent)* from March 2017, but was up 5.6 percent (±0.3 percent) from ...


Consumer Price Index decreased 0.1% in May, Ex Fd & Engy rose 0.1%
Posted: June 14, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) decreased 0.1 percent in May on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 1.9 percent.

A decrease in the energy index was the main contributor to the monthly decrease in the all items index. The energy index fell 2.7 percent, led by a decline of 6.4 percent in the gasoline index. The food index rose 0.2 percent, due to increases in four of the six major ...


Real Average Hourly Earnings increased 0.3% in May
Posted: June 14, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Real average hourly earnings for all employees increased 0.3 percent from April to May, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from a 0.2-percent increase in average hourly earnings combined with a 0.1-percent decrease in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban ...


U.S. Retail Sales for May Decrease 0.3%, Ex-Auto down 0.3%
Posted: June 14, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for May 2017, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $473.8 billion, a decrease of 0.3 percent (±0.5 percent)* from the previous month, and 3.8 percent (±0.9 percent) above May 2016. Total sales for the March 2017 through ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: June 14, 2017 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 2.8 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending June 9, 2017. Last week's results included an adjustment for the Memorial Day holiday.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 2.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 27 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 9 ...


Producer Price Index was unchanged in May, ex Fd & Engy down 0.1%
Posted: June 13, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

The Producer Price Index for final demand was unchanged in May, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices rose 0.5 percent in April and edged down 0.1 percent in March. On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index increased 2.4 percent for the 12 months ended ...


NFIB Small Business Optimism Index flat in May to 104.5
Posted: June 13, 2017 at 07:00 AM (Tuesday)

The May Index continues the remarkable surge in small business optimism that started the day after the election. Small-business confidence shot up to near record levels last November and still hasn’t come down. The Index for May matched its strong performance in April of 104.5. The Index has been at a historically high level for six ...


Wholesale Inventories down 0.5% in April
Posted: June 10, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Saturday)

April 2017 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading-day differences but not for price changes, were $462.3 billion, down 0.4 percent (±0.5 percent)* from the revised March level, but were up 7.3 percent (±0.9 percent) from the April 2016 level. ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 10,000 to 245,000
Posted: June 8, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending June 3, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 245,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 7,000 from 248,000 to 255,000. The 4-week moving average was 242,000, an increase of 2,250 from the previous week's revised average. The ...


Consumer Credit Increased at an annual rate of 2.50%
Posted: June 7, 2017 at 03:00 PM (Wednesday)

In April, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2-1/2 percent. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 1-3/4 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 3 percent.

...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: June 7, 2017 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 7.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending June 2, 2017. This week's results included an adjustment for the Memorial Day holiday.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 7.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 15 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 3 ...


Job Openings increased to a series high of 6.0 million in April
Posted: June 6, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The number of job openings increased to a series high of 6.0 million on the last business day of April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires decreased to 5.1 million and separations edged down to 5.0 million. Within separations, the quits rate and the layoffs and discharges rate were little changed at ...


New orders for manufactured goods decreased 0.2% in April
Posted: June 5, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

New orders for manufactured goods in April, down following four consecutive monthly increases, decreased $0.8 billion or 0.2 percent to $469.0 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 1.0 percent March increase. Shipments, up four of the last five months, increased $0.1 billion or virtually unchanged to $470.8 billion. ...


Employment Trends Index increased in May to 133.70
Posted: June 5, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) increased in May, following an increase in April. The index now stands at 133.70, up from 132.77 (an upward revision) in April. The change represents a 6.4 percent gain in the ETI compared to a year ago.

“While employment numbers have shown some softness in the past three months, there is no slowdown visible in the Employment Trends Index, suggesting solid job growth over the summer,” said Gad Levanon, Chief Economist, North America, at The Conference Board. “Employment ...


ISM Non-Manufacturing Index dipped to 56.9% in May
Posted: June 5, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in May for the 89th consecutive month, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The NMI® registered 56.9 percent, which is 0.6 percentage point lower than the April reading of 57.5 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a slightly slower rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index decreased to 60.7 percent, ...


1Q2017 Productivity Growth Unch%
Posted: June 5, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity was unchanged during the first quarter of 2017, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, as both output and hours worked increased 1.7 percent. (All quarterly percent changes in this release are seasonally adjusted annual rates.) From the first quarter of 2016 to the first quarter of ...


May Employment increased by 138,000
Unemployment Rate dipped to 4.3%

Posted: June 2, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 138,000 in May, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care and mining.

Household Survey Data
The unemployment rate, at 4.3 percent, and the number of unemployed persons, at 6.9 million, changed little in May. Since January, the unemployment rate has declined by 0.5 percentage point, and the number of unemployed has decreased by 774,000. ...


Goods and Services Deficit Increased in April 2017
Posted: June 2, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

The Nation's international trade deficit in goods and services increased to $47.6 billion in April from $45.3 billion in March (revised), as exports decreased and imports increased.

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that the goods and services deficit was $47.6 billion in April, up $2.3 billion from $45.3 billion in March, revised. April exports were $191.0 billion, $0.5 ...


New York Purchasing Managers Business Activity dropped in May to 46.7
Posted: June 2, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

New York City purchasing managers balanced short term uncertainty with persistent long term optimism in May, according to the survey taken by the Institute for Supply Management-New York. Three survey indices pulled back to levels not seen since before the Presidential election: Current Business Conditions (October), Employment (September), ...



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