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Category: Research - Topic: Economics - 201710

Consumer Confidence increased again in October to 125.9
Posted: October 31, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had improved marginally in September (an upward revision), increased again in October. The Index now stands at 125.9 (1985=100), up from 120.6 in September. The Present Situation Index increased from 146.9 to 151.1, while the Expectations Index rose from 103.0 last month ...

Chicago Purchasing Managers Index rose to 66.2 in October
Posted: October 31, 2017 at 09:45 AM (Tuesday)

The MNI Chicago Business Barometer rose to 66.2 in October, up from 65.2 in September, hitting the highest level since March 2011.

After a bullish September showing, firms’ optimism regarding the business landscape found further room to grow as they entered the final quarter of the year. Of the five Barometer sub-components, only Employment and Supplier Deliveries slipped from their respective ...

S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices gained 0.5% in August
Posted: October 31, 2017 at 09:00 AM (Tuesday)

S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for August 2017 shows that home prices continued their rise across the country over the last 12 months.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 6.1% annual gain in August, up from 5.9% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 5.3%, up from 5.2% the ...

Employment Cost Index up 0.7% in 3Q2017
Posted: October 31, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.7 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in September 2017, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Wages and salaries (which make up about 70 percent of compensation costs) increased 0.7 percent, and benefits (which make up the remaining 30 percent ...

Paychex-IHS Small Business Jobs Index slowing to 99.89 in October
Posted: October 31, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

The Paychex | IHS Markit Small Business Employment Watch shows a slight slowdown in small business job growth, with wage growth also showing a small decline over the past month. The Small Business Jobs Index stands at 99.89, moderating 0.04 percent from the previous month. After reaching a milestone three percent growth rate in August, ...

Texas Fed Manufacturing Activity Gains Momentum in October
Posted: October 30, 2017 at 10:30 AM (Monday)

Texas factory activity expanded at a faster pace in October, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rose six points to 25.6 and reached its highest reading since ...

Personal Income increased 0.4%, Spending increased 1.0%
Posted: October 30, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

Personal income increased $66.9 billion (0.4 percent) in September according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $53.0 billion (0.4 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $136.0 billion ...

University of Michigan Consumer Confidence surged in October to 100.7
Posted: October 27, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Consumer sentiment surged in October, reaching its highest level since the start of 2004, according to the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.

This was only the second time that the Sentiment Index was above 100.0 since the end of the record 1990s expansion. The October gain was due to the most favorable assessments of the financial situation of consumers since 2000, said U-M economist Richard Curtin, director of ...

3Q2017 GDP advance estimate increased 3.0%
Posted: October 27, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.0 percent in the third quarter of 2017, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.1 percent.

The Bureau emphasized that the third-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency. The "second" estimate for the third quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on ...

Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity posted strong growth in October
Posted: October 26, 2017 at 11:00 AM (Thursday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity posted strong growth, and expectations for future activity improved further. Raw materials price indexes increased modestly, while indexes for selling prices were mixed.

The month-over-month composite index was 23 in October, the highest since March 2011, up from 17 in September and 16 in August (Tables 1 & 2, Chart 1). The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials ...

Pending Home Sales Index unch% in September
Posted: October 26, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Pending home sales were unchanged in September, but activity declined on an annual basis both nationally and in all major regions, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, was at 106.0 in September (unchanged from a downwardly revised August figure). The index is now at its lowest reading since January 2015 (104.7), is 3.5 percent below a year ago, and has ...

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase 10,000 to 233,000
Posted: October 26, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending October 21, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 233,000, an increase of 10,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 222,000 to 223,000. The 4-week moving average was 239,500, a decrease of 9,000 from the previous week's revised average. ...

New Home Sales in September at annual rate of 667,000
Posted: October 25, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

New Home Sales
Sales of new single-family houses in September 2017 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 667,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 18.9 percent (±19.0 percent)* above the revised August rate of 561,000 and is 17.0 ...

September New Orders for Durable Goods increased 2.2%, Ex-Trans up 0.7%
Posted: October 25, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in September increased $5.1 billion or 2.2 percent to $238.7 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up three of the last four months, followed a 2.0 percent August increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.7 percent. Excluding defense, new ...

Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: October 25, 2017 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 4.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 20, 2017. The previous week's results included an adjustment for the Columbus ...

Richmond Fed's Current Activity Index fell from 22 to 9
Posted: October 24, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Reports on Fifth District manufacturing activity remained positive in October, according to the latest survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite index dropped, affected by a notable decline in the shipments index, which fell from 22 to 9, but it remained positive across all components, indicating continued growth. While ...

Philadelphia NonManufacturing Activity Indicators expansion continued in October
Posted: October 24, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Respondents to the Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey reported continued growth in the region’s nonmanufacturing sector in October. The survey’s indicator for current activity changed little, and while indicators for new orders and sales/revenues fell, they remained positive. The survey’s indicator for full-time employment rose. More ...

Chicago Fed National Activity Points to a Pickup in Economic Growth in September
Posted: October 23, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

Led by improvements in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) moved up to +0.17 in September from –0.37 in August. All four broad categories of indicators that make up the index increased from August, and three of the four categories made positive contributions to the index in September. The ...

Existing-Home Sales rose 0.7% in September
Posted: October 20, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

After three straight monthly declines, existing-home sales slightly reversed course in September, but ongoing supply shortages and recent hurricanes muted overall activity and caused sales to fall back on an annual basis, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, rose 0.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.39 million in September from 5.35 million in August. Last month's sales pace is 1.5 ...

U.S. Leading Economic Index declined 0.2% in September
Posted: October 19, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

First Decline in a Year, Partly Due to Impact of Hurricanes. The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI)for the U.S. declined 0.2 percent in September to 128.6 (2010 = 100), following a 0.4 percent increase in August, and a 0.3 percent increase in July.

“The US LEI declined slightly in September for the first time in the last twelve months, partly a result of the temporary impact of the recent hurricanes,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “The source of ...

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 22,000 to 222,000
Posted: October 19, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending October 14, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 222,000, a decrease of 22,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the lowest level for initial claims since March 31, 1973 when it was 222,000. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 243,000 to 244,000. The 4-week moving ...

Philadelphia Fed Outlook Reported Activity growth continues in October
Posted: October 19, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Manufacturing firms reported continued growth in regional manufacturing in October. The survey’s current indicators for general activity, new orders, shipments, and employment all remained positive this month. Both of the survey’s current labor market indicators showed notable improvement. The indexes assessing the six-month outlook suggest ...

Beige Book: Economic Activity indicates growth split between modest and moderate pace
Posted: October 18, 2017 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

Reports from all 12 Federal Reserve Districts indicated that economic activity increased in September through early October, with the pace of growth split between modest and moderate. The Richmond, Atlanta, and Dallas Districts reported major disruptions from Hurricanes Harvey and Irma in some areas and sectors, including transportation, ...

September Housing Starts down 4.7%, Permits down 4.5%
Posted: October 18, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Building Permits
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,215,000. This is 4.5 percent (±1.6 percent) below the revised August rate of 1,272,000 and is 4.3 percent (±1.7 percent) below the September 2016 rate of 1,270,000. Single-family authorizations in September ...

Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: October 18, 2017 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 3.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 13, 2017. This week's results included an adjustment for the Columbus ...

Treasury International Capital Data for August 2017
Posted: October 17, 2017 at 04:00 PM (Tuesday)

The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for August 2017. The sum total in August of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a monthly net TIC inflow of $125.0 billion. Of this, net foreign private inflows were $131.5 billion, ...

Builder Confidence Rises 4 points to 68 in October
Posted: October 17, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes rose four points to a level of 68 in October on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). This was the highest reading since May.

“This month’s report shows that home builders are rebounding from the initial shock of the hurricanes,” said NAHB Chairman Granger MacDonald, a home builder and developer from Kerrville, Texas. “However, builders need to be mindful of long-term repercussions from the ...

Industrial Production rose 0.3%
Capacity Utilization increased at 76.0%

Posted: October 17, 2017 at 09:48 AM (Tuesday)

Industrial production rose 0.3 percent in September. The rates of change for July and August were notably revised; the current estimate for July, a decrease of 0.1 percent, was 0.5 percentage point lower than previously reported, while the estimate for August, a decrease of 0.7 percent, was 0.2 percentage point higher than before. The ...

U.S. Import Price Index increased 0.7% in September
Posted: October 17, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

U.S. import prices increased 0.7 percent in September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, after advancing 0.6 percent in August. The price index for U.S. exports rose 0.8 percent in September, after increasing 0.7 percent the previous month.

Hurricane Harvey and Irma: Hurricanes Harvey and Irma had a small impact on the collection of the import and export price index data for September, but no change in the estimation procedures. For more information on the impact, please see ...

Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions continued to expand strongly in October
Posted: October 16, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

Business activity grew at a robust pace in New York State, according to firms responding to the October 2017 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index climbed six points to 30.2, its highest level in three years. The new orders index came in at 18.0 and the shipments index rose eleven points to ...

Real Average Hourly Earnings decreased 0.1% in September
Posted: October 13, 2017 at 10:41 AM (Friday)

Real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased 0.1 percent from August to September, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from a 0.5 percent increase in average hourly earnings being offset by a 0.5-percent increase in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban ...

Business Inventories up 0.7% in August
Posted: October 13, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

The combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for August, adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,369.2 billion, up 0.7 percent (±0.1 percent) from July 2017 and was up 5.5 percent (±0.4 percent) from ...

University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Preliminary October Results at 101.1
Posted: October 13, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Consumer sentiment surged in early October, reaching its highest level since the start of 2004. The October gain was broadly shared, occurring among all age and income subgroups and across all partisan viewpoints. The data indicate a robust outlook for consumer spending that extends the current expansion to at least mid 2018, which would mark ...

Consumer Price Index 0.5% in September, Ex Fd & Engy rose 0.1%
Posted: October 13, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.5 percent in September on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 2.2 percent.

The gasoline index increased 13.1 percent in September and accounted for about three-fourths of the seasonally adjusted all items increase. Other major energy component indexes were mixed, and the food index rose slightly. ...

U.S. Retail Sales for September Increase 1.6%, Ex-Auto up 1.0%
Posted: October 13, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for September 2017, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $483.9 billion, an increase of 1.6 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and 4.4 percent (±0.7 percent) above September 2016. Total sales for the July ...

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 15,000 to 243,000
Posted: October 12, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending October 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 243,000, a decrease of 15,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 2,000 from 260,000 to 258,000. The 4-week moving average was 257,500, a decrease of 9,500 from the previous week's revised average. ...

Producer Price Index advanced 0.4% in September, ex Fd & Engy up 0.2%
Posted: October 12, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

The Producer Price Index for final demand advanced 0.4 percent in September, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices moved up 0.2 percent in August and edged down 0.1 percent in July. On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index increased 2.6 percent for the 12 months ended in September, ...

Job Openings little changed at 6.1 million in August
Posted: October 11, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

The number of job openings was little changed at 6.1 million on the last business day of August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires and separations were also little changed at 5.4 million and 5.2 million, respectively. Within separations, the quits rate and the layoffs and discharges rate were little ...

Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: October 11, 2017 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 2.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 6, 2017.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 2.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 4 ...

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 2.3 points to 103.0 in September
Posted: October 10, 2017 at 07:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Index of Small Business Optimism fell 2.3 points to 103.0 in September, a significant decline from August. Three of the 10 Index components posted a gain, six declined and one was unchanged. Two of our largest states, Florida and Texas, were devastated by hurricanes in the survey period; however, the response rate in those states was ...

Employment Trends Index declined slightly in September to 132.74
Posted: October 9, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) declined slightly in September, following a larger drop in August. The index now stands at 132.74, slightly down from 132.78 (a strong downward revision) in August. The change represents a 3.8 percent gain in the ETI compared to a ...

Consumer Credit Increased at an annual rate of 4.25%
Posted: October 6, 2017 at 03:00 PM (Friday)

In August, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4-1/4 percent. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 7 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 3-1/4 percent.


Wholesale Inventories up 0.9% in August
Posted: October 6, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

August 2017 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading-day differences but not for price changes, were $473.4 billion, up 1.7 percent (±0.4 percent) from the revised July level and were up 7.2 percent (±1.1 percent) from the August 2016 level. The June ...

September Employment decreased by 33,000
Unemployment Rate declined to 4.2%

Posted: October 6, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

The unemployment rate declined to 4.2 percent in September, and total nonfarm payroll employment changed little (-33,000), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. A sharp employment decline in food services and drinking places and below-trend growth in some other industries likely reflected the impact of Hurricanes Irma ...

New orders for manufactured goods increased 1.2% in August
Posted: October 5, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

New orders for manufactured goods in August, up two of the last three months, increased $5.4 billion or 1.2 percent to $471.7 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 3.3 percent July decrease. Shipments, up eight of the last nine months, increased $2.2 billion or 0.5 percent to $475.9 billion. This followed a 0.2 ...

Goods and Services Deficit Decreased in August 2017
Posted: October 5, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

The nation's international trade deficit in goods and services decreased to $42.4 billion in August from $43.6 billion in July (revised), as exports increased and imports decreased.

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that the goods and services deficit was $42.4 billion in August, down $1.2 billion from $43.6 billion in July, revised. August exports were $195.3 billion, ...

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 12,000 to 260,000
Posted: October 5, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending September 30, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 260,000, a decrease of 12,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 272,000. The 4-week moving average was 268,250, a decrease of 9,500 from the previous week's unrevised average of 277,750. Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria impacted this ...

Challenger Layoffs decreased to 32,346 in September
Posted: October 5, 2017 at 07:00 AM (Thursday)

Job cuts announced by U.S.-based employers fell 4.4 percent, from 33,825 in August to 32,346 in September. Last month’s total was 27 percent lower than the 44,324 job cuts announced in the same month last year, according to a report released Thursday by global outplacement and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & ...

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increased to 59.8% in September
Posted: October 4, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in September for the 93rd consecutive month, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The NMI® registered 59.8 percent, which is 4.5 percentage points higher than the August reading of 55.3 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a faster rate. This is the highest reading since August 2005 when the index registered 61.3 ...

Help Wanted OnLine Labor Demand increased 2,500 to 4,482,300 in September
Posted: October 4, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Online advertised vacancies increased 2,500 to 4,482,300 in September, according to The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Data Series,released today. The August Supply/Demand rate stands at 1.59 unemployed for each advertised vacancy, with a total of 2.7 million more unemployed workers than the number of advertised vacancies. The ...

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