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Category: Research - Topic: Economics - 201712

Chicago Purchasing Managers Index rose to 67.6 in December
Posted: December 29, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

The MNI Chicago Business Barometer rose to 67.6 in December, up from 63.9 in November, closing the year at the highest level since March 2011.

On a calendar quarter basis, the Barometer rose to 65.9 in Q4 from 61.0 in Q3, the best quarterly performance since Q1 2011, only the second time in the last decade there have been three consecutive above-60 readings in the Oct-Dec period. ...

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims unch at 245,000
Posted: December 28, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending December 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 245,000, unchanged from the previous week's unrevised level of 245,000. The 4-week moving average was 237,750, an increase of 1,750 from the previous week's unrevised average of 236,000. Claims taking procedures continue to be disrupted in the ...

Consumer Confidence decreased in December to 122.1
Posted: December 27, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® decreased in December, following a modest improvement in November. The Index now stands at 122.1 (1985=100), down from 128.6 in November. The Present Situation Index increased from 154.9 to 156.6, while the Expectations Index declined from 111.0 last month to 99.1 ...

Pending Home Sales Index rose 0.2% in November
Posted: December 27, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Pending home sales were mostly unmoved in November, but did squeak out a minor gain both on a monthly and annualized basis, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Heading into 2018, existing-home sales and price growth are forecast to slow, primarily because of the altered tax benefits of homeownership affecting some ...

Texas Fed Manufacturing Activity Shows Robust Growth in December
Posted: December 26, 2017 at 10:30 AM (Tuesday)

Texas factory activity expanded strongly in December, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, spiked 18 points to 32.8, reaching its highest level in more than ...

Richmond Fed's Current Activity Index moved down to 20 from 30
Posted: December 26, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

According to the latest survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Fifth District manufacturing firms saw moderate growth in December. The composite index moved down from its record high November reading of 30 to 20 but remained positive, indicating continued growth. The decrease in the composite index resulted from declines in the ...

S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices gained 0.7% in October
Posted: December 26, 2017 at 09:00 AM (Tuesday)

S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for October 2017 shows that home prices continued their rise across the country over the last 12 months.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 6.2% annual gain in October, up from 6.1% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 6.0%, up from 5.7% the ...

New Home Sales in November at annual rate of 733,000
Posted: December 22, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

New Home Sales
Sales of new single-family houses in November 2017 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 733,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 17.5 percent (±10.4 percent) above the revised October rate of 624,000 and is 26.6 ...

University of Michigan Consumer Confidence down in December to 95.9
Posted: December 22, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Consumer confidence continued to slowly sink in December, with most of the decline among lower income households, according to the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.

The extent of the decline was minor, with the December figure just below the average for 2017 (95.9 versus 96.8), said U-M economist Richard Curtin, director of the surveys. Indeed, the average in 2017 was the highest since 2000, and only the long expansions of the 1960s ...

Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity continued at a solid pace in December
Posted: December 22, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Growth in Tenth District manufacturing activity continued at a solid pace, and optimism remained high for future activity. Price indexes were mixed, but posted little change overall.

The month-over-month composite index was 14 in December, lower than 16 in November and 23 in October. The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes. Growth in factory activity ...

Personal Income increased 0.3%, Spending increased 0.6%
Posted: December 22, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Personal income increased $54.0 billion (0.3 percent) in November according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $50.9 billion (0.4 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $87.1 billion ...

Philadelphia NonManufacturing Activity continued to grow in December
Posted: December 22, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Responses to the December Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggested that business activity in the region continued to grow. The index for firm-level general activity edged up, and the index for sales/revenues rose by a greater amount. The indicators for new orders and full-time employment fell but remained positive. The respondents ...

November New Orders for Durable Goods increased 1.3%, Ex-Trans down 0.1%
Posted: December 22, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in November increased $3.1 billion or 1.3 percent to $241.4 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up three of the last four months, followed a 0.4 percent October decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.1 percent. Excluding defense, new ...

U.S. Leading Economic Index increased 0.4% in November
Posted: December 21, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI)for the U.S. increased 0.4 percent in November to 130.9 (2010 = 100), following a 1.2 percent increase in October, and a 0.1 percent increase in September.

“The U.S. LEI rose again in November, suggesting that solid economic growth will continue into the first half of 2018,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “In recent months, unemployment insurance claims have ...

3Q2017 GDP final estimate increased 3.2%
Posted: December 21, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.2 percent in the third quarter of 2017, according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.1 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "second" estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was 3.3 percent. With this third estimate for the third quarter, personal consumption ...

Chicago Fed National Activity Points to a Moderation in Economic Growth in November
Posted: December 21, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, moved up to +0.28 in November from +0.18 in October. Forty-two of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in November, while 43 made negative contributions. Thirty-six indicators improved from October to November, while 49 indicators ...

Philadelphia Fed Outlook Reported Activity growth continues to improve in December
Posted: December 21, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Results from the December Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest that regional manufacturing conditions continued to improve. Indexes for general activity, new orders, and shipments were all positive this month and increased from their readings last month. The firms also reported continued expansion of employment. Most indicators ...

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase 20,000 to 245,000
Posted: December 21, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending December 16, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 245,000, an increase of 20,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 225,000. The 4-week moving average was 236,000, an increase of 1,250 from the previous week's unrevised average of 234,750. Claims taking procedures continue to be disrupted in ...

Existing-Home Sales increased 5.6% in November
Posted: December 20, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Existing-home sales surged for the third straight month in November and reached their strongest pace in almost 11 years, according to the National Association of Realtors®. All major regions except for the West saw a significant hike in sales activity last month.

Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, jumped 5.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.81 million in November from an upwardly revised 5.50 million in October. After last ...

Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: December 20, 2017 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 4.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 15, 2017.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 4.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 6 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 3 ...

3Q2017 Current Account Deficit Decreased
Posted: December 19, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

The U.S. current-account deficit decreased to $100.6 billion (preliminary) in the third quarter of 2017 from $124.4 billion (revised) in the second quarter of 2017, according to statistics released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The deficit decreased to 2.1 percent of current dollar gross domestic product (GDP) from 2.6 percent in ...

November Housing Starts up 3.3%, Permits down 1.4%
Posted: December 19, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Building Permits
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,298,000. This is 1.4 percent (±1.7 percent) below the revised October rate of 1,316,000, but is 3.4 percent (±2.3 percent) above the November 2016 rate of 1,255,000. Single-family authorizations in November ...

Builder Confidence Rose 5 points to 74 in December
Posted: December 18, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

Builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes increased five points to a level of 74 in December on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) after a downwardly revised November reading. This was the highest report since July 1999, over 18 ...

Treasury International Capital Data for October 2017
Posted: December 15, 2017 at 04:00 PM (Friday)

The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for October 2017. The sum total in October of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a monthly net TIC inflow of $151.2 billion. Of this, net foreign private inflows were $154.8 billion, ...

Industrial Production moved up 0.2%
Capacity Utilization increased to 77.1%

Posted: December 15, 2017 at 09:15 AM (Friday)

Industrial production moved up 0.2 percent in November after posting an upwardly revised increase of 1.2 percent in October. Manufacturing production also rose 0.2 percent in November, its third consecutive monthly gain. The output of utilities dropped 1.9 percent. The index for mining increased 2.0 percent, as oil and gas extraction returned ...

Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions continued to grow at a solid clip in December
Posted: December 15, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Business activity continued to grow at a solid clip in New York State, according to firms responding to the December 2017 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index, at 18.0, remained close to last month’s level. The new orders index and the shipments index both showed sustained strong gains, with the ...

Business Inventories down 0.1% in October
Posted: December 14, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

The combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for October, adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,400.8 billion, up 0.6 percent (±0.2 percent) from September 2017 and was up 6.5 percent (±0.3 percent) from ...

U.S. Import Price Index increased 0.7% in November
Posted: December 14, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

U.S. import prices rose 0.7 percent in November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, after ticking up 0.1 percent in October. Higher prices for fuel drove the increase in November and nonfuel prices recorded no change. U.S. export prices increased 0.5 percent in November following a 0.1-percent advance the ...

U.S. Retail Sales for November Increase 0.8%, Ex-Auto up 1.0%
Posted: December 14, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for November 2017, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $492.7 billion, an increase of 0.8 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and 5.8 percent (±0.7 percent) above November 2016. Total sales for the ...

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 11,000 to 225,000
Posted: December 14, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending December 9, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 225,000, a decrease of 11,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 236,000. The 4-week moving average was 234,750, a decrease of 6,750 from the previous week's unrevised average of 241,500. Claims taking procedures continue to be disrupted in ...

FOMC target funds rate increased at 1.25% - 1.50%, balance sheet reduction continues
Posted: December 13, 2017 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in November indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a solid rate. Averaging through hurricane-related fluctuations, job gains have been solid, and the unemployment rate declined further. Household spending has ...

Consumer Price Index 0.4% in November, Ex Fd & Engy rose 0.1%
Posted: December 13, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.4 percent in November on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 2.2 percent.

The energy index rose 3.9 percent and accounted for about three-fourths of the all items increase. The gasoline index increased 7.3 percent, and the other energy component indexes also rose. The food index was unchanged in November, with the index for food at home declining ...

Real Average Hourly Earnings decreased 0.2% in November
Posted: December 13, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased 0.2 percent from October to November, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from a 0.2 percent increase in average hourly earnings being more than offset by a 0.4-percent increase in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban ...

Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: December 13, 2017 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 2.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 8, 2017.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 2.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 4 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 3 ...

Producer Price Index advanced 0.4% in November, ex Fd & Engy up 0.3%
Posted: December 12, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.4 percent in November, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices also moved up 0.4 percent in both October and September. On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index rose 3.1 percent for the 12 months ended in November, the largest ...

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index gained 3.7 points to 107.5 in November
Posted: December 12, 2017 at 07:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Index of Small Business Optimism gained 3.7 points to 107.5 in November, the second highest reading in the 44-year history of the NFIB surveys (108.0 in July 1983). Eight of the 10 Index components posted a gain and two declined, as Job Openings fell from its record high level and Capital Spending Plans declined 1 point. ...

Job Openings little changed at 6.0 million in October
Posted: December 11, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

The number of job openings was little changed at 6.0 million on the last business day of October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires increased to 5.6 million and separations were little changed at 5.2 million. Within separations, the quits rate and the layoffs and discharges rate were little changed at ...

Employment Trends Index decreased in November to 135.88
Posted: December 11, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) decreased in November, after a sharp increase in October. The index now stands at 135.88, down from 136.23 (an upward revision) in October. The change represents a 4.7 percent gain in the ETI compared to a year ago.

“The decline in the Employment Trends Index in November comes after one of the largest monthly increases ever last month. The ETI is still on an upward trend and suggests that employment is likely to continue to grow in the months ahead,” said Gad Levanon, Chief Economist, ...

Wholesale Inventories down 0.5% in October
Posted: December 8, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

October 2017 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading-day differences but not for price changes, were $484.6 billion, up 0.7 percent (±0.5 percent) from the revised September level and were up 8.4 percent (±0.9 percent) from the October 2016 level. ...

University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Preliminary December Results at 96.8
Posted: December 8, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Consumer sentiment has remained quite favorable although it continued to slowly recede in early December from its October cyclical peak. Most of the recent decline was concentrated in the long-term prospects for the economy, while consumers thought current economic conditions have continued to improve. Importantly, the largest decline in ...

November Employment rose by 228,000
Unemployment Rate unchanged at 4.1%

Posted: December 8, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 228,000 in November, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in professional and business services, manufacturing, and ...

Consumer Credit Increased at an annual rate of 6.50%
Posted: December 7, 2017 at 03:00 PM (Thursday)

In October, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6-1/2 percent. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 10 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 5-1/4 percent.


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 2,000 to 236,000
Posted: December 7, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending December 2, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 236,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 238,000. The 4-week moving average was 241,500, a decrease of 750 from the previous week's unrevised average ...

Challenger Layoffs Increased to 35,038 in November
Posted: December 7, 2017 at 07:00 AM (Thursday)

U.S.-based employers announced 35,038 job cuts in November, up 30 percent from the same month last year, when 26,936 job cuts were announced. Employers have announced 17 percent more cuts than in October 2017, when 29,831 cuts were announced, according to a report released Thursday by global outplacement consultancy Challenger, Gray & ...

Help Wanted OnLine Labor Demand increased 137,100 to 4,700,900 in November
Posted: December 6, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Online advertised vacancies increased 137,100 to 4,700,900 in November, according to The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Data Series,released today. The October Supply/Demand rate stands at 1.43 unemployed for each advertised vacancy, with a total of 2.0 million more unemployed workers than the number of advertised vacancies. ...

3Q2017 Productivity Growth increased 3.0%
Posted: December 6, 2017 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 3.0 percent during the third quarter of 2017, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, as output increased 4.1 percent and hours worked increased 1.1 percent. The productivity increase was the largest since the third quarter of 2014, when output per hour increased 4.4 percent. ...

ADP National Employment Report increased by 190,000 jobs in November
Posted: December 6, 2017 at 08:15 AM (Wednesday)

Private sector employment increased by 190,000 jobs from October to November according to the November ADP National Employment Report®.

“The labor market continues to grow at a solid pace,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “Notably, manufacturing added the most jobs the industry has seen all year. As the labor market continues to tighten and wages increase it ...

Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: December 6, 2017 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 4.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 1, 2017. The prior week's results included an adjustment for the ...

Paychex-IHS Small Business Jobs Index Decline Slightly to 99.86 in November
Posted: December 5, 2017 at 01:17 PM (Tuesday)

The Paychex | IHS Markit Small Business Employment Watch shows a modest decline in both small business job and wage growth for November. The Small Business Jobs Index decreased 0.03 percent for the month, 0.10 for the quarter, and 0.52 percent for the year to 99.86. The national index has now been below 100 for five consecutive months. ...

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index decreased to 57.4% in November
Posted: December 5, 2017 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in November for the 95th consecutive month, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The NMI® registered 57.4 percent, which is 2.7 percentage points lower than the October reading of 60.1 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a slower rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index decreased to 61.4 percent, 0.8 ...

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