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Category: Research - Topic: Economics - 201801

FOMC target funds rate maintained at 1.25% - 1.50%
Posted: January 31, 2018 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a solid rate. Gains in employment, household spending, and business fixed investment have been solid, and the unemployment rate has stayed low. On a 12-month ...

Help Wanted OnLine Labor Demand increased 1,200 to 4,903,300 in January
Posted: January 31, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Online advertised vacancies increased 1,200 to 4,903,300 in January, according to The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Data Series,released today. The December Supply/Demand rate stands at 1.34 unemployed for each advertised vacancy, with a total of 1.7 million more unemployed workers than the number of advertised vacancies. The ...

Pending Home Sales Index rose 0.5% in December
Posted: January 31, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Pending home sales were up slightly in December for the third consecutive month, according to the National Association of Realtors®. In 2018, existing-home sales and price growth are forecast to moderate, primarily because of the new tax law's expected impact in high-cost ...

Chicago Purchasing Managers Index rose to 67.6 in January
Posted: January 31, 2018 at 09:45 AM (Wednesday)

The MNI Chicago Business Barometer fell 2.1 points to 65.7 in January from a previously revised 67.8 in December.

Despite losing some ground in January, the Barometer continued in the same vein of form it displayed in the second half of 2017, making for an encouraging start to the New Year. The Barometer was up 28.3% on last January and at 65.7, stands above the H2 2017 average of ...

Employment Cost Index up 0.6% in 4Q2017
Posted: January 31, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.6 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in December 2017, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Wages and salaries (which make up about 70 percent of compensation costs) increased 0.5 percent, and benefits (which make up the remaining 30 percent ...

ADP National Employment Report increased by 234,000 jobs in January
Posted: January 31, 2018 at 08:15 AM (Wednesday)

Private sector employment increased by 234,000 jobs from December to January according to the January ADP National Employment Report®.

“We’ve kicked off the year with another month of unyielding job gains,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “Service providers were firing on all cylinders, posting their strongest gain in more than a year. We also saw robust hiring ...

Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: January 31, 2018 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 2.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 26, 2018.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 2.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 12 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 3 ...

Consumer Confidence increased in January to 125.4
Posted: January 30, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased in January, following a decline in December. The Index now stands at 125.4 (1985=100), up from 123.1 in December. The Present Situation Index decreased slightly, from 156.5 to 155.3, while the Expectations Index increased from 100.8 last month to 105.5 ...

S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices gained 0.2% in November
Posted: January 30, 2018 at 09:00 AM (Tuesday)

S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for November 2017 shows that home prices continued their rise across the country over the last 12 months.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 6.2% annual gain in November, up from 6.1% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 6.1%, up from 5.9% the ...

Paychex-IHS Small Business Jobs Index increase to 99.88 in January
Posted: January 30, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

The Paychex | IHS Markit Small Business Employment Watch started the year with an increase in small business job growth and wages in January. The Small Business Jobs Index stands at 99.88, a 0.18 percent increase over December. The jobs growth rate remains below last January’s level by 0.74 percent. Hourly earnings have grown $0.72 in the ...

Texas Fed Manufacturing Activity Shows Expansion Continues in January
Posted: January 29, 2018 at 10:30 AM (Monday)

Texas factory activity continued to expand in January, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, remained elevated but retreated to 16.8 after surging to an 11-year high ...

Personal Income increased 0.4%, Spending increased 0.4%
Posted: January 29, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

Personal income increased $58.7 billion (0.4 percent) in December according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $48.0 billion (0.3 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $54.2 billion ...

4Q2017 GDP advance estimate increased 2.6%, 2017 GDP 2.3 %
Posted: January 26, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2017, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.2 percent.

The Bureau emphasized that the fourth-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see "Source Data for the Advance Estimate" on page 3). The "second" estimate for the fourth ...

December New Orders for Durable Goods increased 2.9%, Ex-Trans up 0.6%
Posted: January 26, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in December increased $7.0 billion or 2.9 percent to $249.4 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up four of the last five months, followed a 1.7 percent November increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.6 percent. Excluding defense, new ...

Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity strengthened further in January
Posted: January 25, 2018 at 11:00 AM (Thursday)

Growth in Tenth District manufacturing activity strengthened further in January, and firms’ expectations for future activity increased. Most price indexes rose moderately from the previous month, with some indexes reaching five to ten year highs.

The month-over-month composite index was 16 in January, higher than 13 in December and 15 in November. The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes. Growth in factory activity ...

New Home Sales in December at annual rate of 625,000
Posted: January 25, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

New Home Sales
Sales of new single-family houses in December 2017 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 625,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 9.3 percent (±11.0 percent)* below the revised November rate of 689,000, but is 14.1 ...

U.S. Leading Economic Index increased 0.6% in December
Posted: January 25, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI)for theU.S. increased 0.6 percent in December to 107.0 (2016 = 100), following a 0.5 percent increase in November, and a 1.3 percent increase in October.

“The U.S. LEI continued rising rapidly in December, pointing to a continuation of strong economic growth in the first half of 2018. The passing of the tax plan is likely to provide even more tailwind to the current expansion,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business ...

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase 17,000 to 233,000
Posted: January 25, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending January 20, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 233,000, an increase of 17,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 4,000 from 220,000 to 216,000. The 4-week moving average was 240,000, a decrease of 3,500 from the previous week's revised average. ...

Existing-Home Sales slipped 3.6% in December, 2017 Sales Up 1.1%
Posted: January 24, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Existing-home sales subsided in most of the country in December, but 2017 as a whole edged up 1.1 percent and ended up being the best year for sales in 11 years, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, increased 1.1 percent in 2017 to a 5.51 million sales pace and surpassed 2016 (5.45 million) as the highest since 2006 (6.48 million). ...

Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: January 24, 2018 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 4.5 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 19, 2018. This week's results included an adjustment for the MLK Day holiday.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 4.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 4 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 1 ...

Richmond Fed's Current Activity Index moved down from 20 to 14
Posted: January 23, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

According to the latest survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Fifth District manufacturing firms saw slower growth in January, even as each of the expansion metrics remained positive. The composite index moved down from 20 to 14. This decrease resulted from a decline in the metrics for both shipments and employment. The third ...

Philadelphia NonManufacturing Activity Suggest a Pickup in Growth in January
Posted: January 23, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Respondents to the January Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey reported that business activity continued to expand in the region. The firm-level general activity index rose for the second consecutive month, and the indicator for new orders also improved. The sales/revenues index decreased but remained positive. However, the ...

Chicago Fed National Activity Points to a Pickup in Economic Growth in December
Posted: January 22, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, edged down to +0.23 in December from +0.26 in November. Forty-three of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in December, while 42 made negative contributions. Thirty-seven indicators improved from November to December, while 47 ...

University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Preliminary January Results at 94.4
Posted: January 19, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

While the preliminary January reading for the Sentiment Index was largely unchanged from last month (-1.5%), consumers evaluated current economic conditions less favorably (-4.6%). This small decrease in current conditions produced a small overall decline. Importantly, the survey recorded persistent strength in personal finances and buying ...

December Housing Starts down 8.2%, Permits down 0.1%
Posted: January 18, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Building Permits
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,302,000. This is 0.1 percent (±1.4 percent)* below the revised November rate of 1,303,000, but is 2.8 percent (±1.9 percent) above the December 2016 rate of 1,266,000. Single-family authorizations in ...

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 41,000 to 220,000
Posted: January 18, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending January 13, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 220,000, a decrease of 41,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 261,000. This is the lowest level for initial claims since February 24, 1973 when it was 218,000. The 4-week moving average was 244,500, a decrease of 6,250 from the previous ...

Philadelphia Fed Outlook Reported Activity Shows Continued Growth in January
Posted: January 18, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Economic growth continued in January, according to the firms responding to this month’s Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The broadest measures of current conditions remained positive this month, although indexes for general activity, new orders, and employment declined from their readings in December. The firms reported higher prices ...

Treasury International Capital Data for November 2017
Posted: January 17, 2018 at 04:00 PM (Wednesday)

The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for November 2017. The sum total in November of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a monthly net TIC inflow of $33.8 billion. Of this, net foreign private inflows were $49.7 billion, ...

Beige Book: Economic Activity continued to expand at a modest to moderate pace
Posted: January 17, 2018 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

Reports from the 12 Federal Reserve Districts indicated that the economy continued to expand from late November through the end of the year, with 11 Districts reporting modest to moderate gains and Dallas recording a robust increase. The outlook for 2018 remains optimistic for a majority of contacts across the country. Most Districts reported ...

Builder Confidence dropped 2 points to 72 in January
Posted: January 17, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes dropped two points to a level of 72 in January on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) after reaching an 18-year high in December 2017.

“Builders are confident that changes to the tax code will promote the small business sector and boost broader economic growth,” said NAHB Chairman Randy Noel, a custom home builder from LaPlace, La. “Our members are excited about the year ahead, even as they continue to ...

Industrial Production rose 0.9%
Capacity Utilization increased to 77.9%

Posted: January 17, 2018 at 09:15 AM (Wednesday)

Industrial production rose 0.9 percent in December even though manufacturing output only edged up 0.1 percent. Revisions to mining and utilities altered the pattern of growth for October and November, but the level of the overall index in November was little changed. For the fourth quarter as a whole, total industrial production jumped 8.2 ...

Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: January 17, 2018 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 4.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 12, 2018.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 4.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 32 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 4 ...

Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions continued to expand strongly in January
Posted: January 16, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Business activity continued to grow at a solid clip in New York State, according to firms responding to the January 2018 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index, at 17.7, was little changed from last month’s level. The new orders index and the shipments index both showed ongoing growth, although at ...

Business Inventories up 0.4% in November
Posted: January 12, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

The combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for November, adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,420.1 billion, up 1.2 percent (±0.2 percent) from October 2017 and was up 7.9 percent (±0.3 percent) from ...

Consumer Price Index 0.1% in December, Ex Fd & Engy rose 0.3%
Posted: January 12, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1 percent in December on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 2.1 percent before seasonal adjustment.

An increase of 0.4 percent in the shelter index accounted for almost 80 percent of the 1-month all items increase. The food index rose in December, with the indexes for food at home and food away from home both increasing. The energy index, which rose sharply in November, ...

Real Average Hourly Earnings increased 0.2% in December
Posted: January 12, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Real average hourly earnings for all employees increased 0.2 percent from November to December, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from a 0.3-percent increase in average hourly earnings combined with a 0.1-percent increase in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban ...

U.S. Retail Sales for December Increase 0.4%, Ex-Auto up 0.4%
Posted: January 12, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for December 2017, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $495.4 billion, an increase of 0.4 percent (±0.5 percent)* from the previous month, and 5.4 percent (±0.7 percent) above December 2016. Total sales for the 12 months ...

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase 11,000 to 261,000
Posted: January 11, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending January 6, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 261,000, an increase of 11,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 250,000. The 4-week moving average was 250,750, an increase of 9,000 from the previous week's unrevised average of 241,750. Claims taking procedures continue to be disrupted in ...

Producer Price Index fell 0.1% in December, ex Fd & Engy up 0.1%
Posted: January 11, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

The Producer Price Index for final demand fell 0.1 percent in December, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices advanced 0.4 percent in both November and October. On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index climbed 2.6 percent in 2017 after a 1.7-percent rise ...

Wholesale Inventories up 0.8% in November
Posted: January 10, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

November 2017 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading-day differences but not for price changes, were $492.4 billion, up 1.5 percent (±0.5 percent) from the revised October level and were up 9.8 percent (±0.9 percent) from the November 2016 level. ...

U.S. Import Price Index ticked up 0.1% in December
Posted: January 10, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Prices for U.S. imports ticked up 0.1 percent in December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, following a 0.8-percent rise the previous month. Higher fuel prices more than offset a decline in the price index for nonfuel prices in December. In contrast, U.S. export prices edged down 0.1 percent in December, after advancing ...

Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: January 10, 2018 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 8.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 5, 2018. This week's results included an adjustment for the New Year's holiday. Results for the previous week ending 12/29/17 ...

Job Openings lower at 5.9 million in November
Posted: January 9, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The number of job openings was little changed at 5.9 million on the last business day of November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires and separations were little changed at 5.5 million and 5.2 million, respectively. Within separations, the quits rate was unchanged at 2.2 percent and the layoffs and ...

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index lost 2.6 points to 104.9 in December
Posted: January 9, 2018 at 07:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Index of Small Business Optimism lost 2.6 points in December, falling to 104.9, still one of the strongest readings in the 45-year history of the NFIB surveys. The highest reading of 108.0 was reached in July 1983, only slightly above November’s 107.5. The lowest reading of 79.7 occurred in April 1980. Two of the 10 Index components posted ...

Consumer Credit Increased at an annual rate of 8.75%
Posted: January 8, 2018 at 03:00 PM (Monday)

In November, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 8-3/4 percent. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 13-1/4 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 7-1/4 percent.


Employment Trends Index Increased in December to 107.10 with benchmark revision
Posted: January 8, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) increased in December, after virtually no change in November. The index now stands at 107.10, up from 106.36 (revised) in November. The change represents a 5.2 percent gain in the ETI compared to a year ago.

“The rapid improvement in the Employment Trends Index in recent months suggests that job growth is unlikely to slow down in the months ahead,” said Gad Levanon, Chief Economist, North America, at The Conference Board. “The US economy has been significantly accelerating in ...

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index decreased to 55.9% in December
Posted: January 5, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in December for the 96th consecutive month, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The NMI® registered 55.9 percent, which is 1.5 percentage points lower than the November reading of 57.4 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a slower rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index decreased to 57.3 percent, 4.1 ...

New orders for manufactured goods increased 1.3% in November
Posted: January 5, 2018 at 09:00 AM (Friday)

New orders for manufactured goods in November, up five of the last six months, increased $6.5 billion or 1.3 percent to $488.1 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 0.4 percent October increase. Shipments, up eleven of the last twelve months, increased $5.7 billion or 1.2 percent to $491.2 billion. This followed a ...

December Employment rose by 148,000
Unemployment Rate unchanged at 4.1%

Posted: January 5, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 148,000 in December, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment gains occurred in health care, construction, and manufacturing.

In December, the unemployment rate was 4.1 percent for the third consecutive month. The number of unemployed persons, at 6.6 million, was essentially unchanged over the month. Over the year, the unemployment rate and the number of unemployed persons were down by 0.6 ...

Goods and Services Deficit Increased in November 2017
Posted: January 5, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

The nation's international trade deficit in goods and services increased to $50.5 billion in November from $48.9 billion in October (revised), as imports increased more than exports. The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that the goods and services deficit was ...

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