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Category: Research - Topic: Economics - 201802



Pending Home Sales Index fell 4.7% in January
Posted: February 28, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

After seeing a modest three-month rise in activity, pending home sales cooled considerably in January to their lowest level in over three years, according to the National Association of Realtors®. All major regions experienced monthly and annual declines in contract signings ...


Chicago Purchasing Managers Index fell 3.8 points in February
Posted: February 28, 2018 at 09:45 AM (Wednesday)

The MNI Chicago Business Barometer fell 3.8 points to 61.9 in February, down from 65.7 in January, to the lowest level since August 2017.

Business activity continued to expand in February, although at a softer pace than in January. All five of the Barometer components receded on the month, but despite a second straight monthly fall, the Barometer was still up 8% on last February and above the 2017 average of ...


4Q2017 GDP preliminary estimate increased 2.5%, 2017 GDP 2.3 %
Posted: February 28, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2017 (table 1), according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.2 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.6 percent. With this second estimate for the fourth quarter, the general picture ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: February 28, 2018 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 2.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 23, 2018. This week's results include an adjustment for the Washington's Birthday (Presidents' ...


Consumer Confidence increased in February to 130.8
Posted: February 27, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased in February, following a modest increase in January. The Index now stands at 130.8 (1985=100), up from 124.3 in January. The Present Situation Index increased from 154.7 to 162.4, while the Expectations Index improved from 104.0 last month to 109.7 ...


Richmond Fed's Current Activity Index jumped from 14 to 28 in February
Posted: February 27, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Fifth District manufacturing firms saw robust growth in February, according to the results from the latest survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index jumped from 14 in January to 28 in February, the second highest value on record, driven by increases in shipments, orders, and employment. The wages ...


S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices gained 0.2% in December
Posted: February 27, 2018 at 09:00 AM (Tuesday)

S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for December 2017 shows that home prices continued their rise across the country over the last 12 months.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 6.3% annual gain in December, up from 6.1% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 6.0%, no change from the ...


January New Orders for Durable Goods decreased 3.7%, Ex-Trans down 0.3%
Posted: February 27, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in January decreased $9.2 billion or 3.7 percent to $239.7 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This decrease, down following two consecutive monthly increases, followed a 2.6 percent December increase. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.3 percent. Excluding ...


Texas Fed Manufacturing Activity Accelerates in February
Posted: February 26, 2018 at 10:30 AM (Monday)

Texas factory activity expanded at a faster pace in February, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rose 11 points to 27.9, signaling a pickup in ...


New Home Sales in January at annual rate of 593,000
Posted: February 26, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

New Home Sales
Sales of new single-family houses in January 2018 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 593,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 7.8 percent (±19.0 percent)* below the revised December rate of 643,000 and is 1.0 percent ...


Chicago Fed National Activity Points to little change in economic growth in January
Posted: February 26, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, moved down to +0.12 in January from +0.26 in December. Forty of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in January, while 45 made negative contributions. Thirty-seven indicators improved from December to January, while 47 indicators ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity continued solid growth in February
Posted: February 22, 2018 at 11:00 AM (Thursday)

The Tenth District manufacturing survey posted continued solid growth in February, and firms’ expectations for future activity increased moderately. Most price indexes rose further, with some indexes at their highest levels in seven to ten years.

The month-over-month composite index was 17 in February, higher than 16 in January and 13 in December (Tables 1 & 2, Chart 1). The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes. Factory ...


U.S. Leading Economic Index increased 1.0% in January
Posted: February 22, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 1.0 percent in January to 108.1 (2016 = 100), following a 0.6 percent increase in December, and a 0.4 percent increase in November.

“The U.S. LEI accelerated further in January and continues to point to robust economic growth in the first half of 2018. While the recent stock market volatility will not be reflected in the U.S. LEI until next month, consumers’ and business’ outlook on the economy had been ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 7,000 to 222,000
Posted: February 22, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending February 17, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 222,000, a decrease of 7,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 1,000 from 230,000 to 229,000. The 4-week moving average was 226,000, a decrease of 2,250 from the previous week's revised average. ...


Existing-Home Sales decreased 3.2% in January
Posted: February 21, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Existing-home sales slumped for the second consecutive month in January and experienced their largest decline on an annual basis in over three years, according to the National Association of Realtors®. All major regions saw monthly and annual sales declines last month.

Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, sank 3.2 percent in January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.38 million from a downwardly revised 5.56 million in December 2017. After ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: February 21, 2018 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 6.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 16, 2018.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 6.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 3 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 7 ...


Philadelphia NonManufacturing Activity Suggest Continued Improvement in February
Posted: February 20, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Firms responding to February’s Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey reported that regional nonmanufacturing activity continued to expand. The firm-level index of general activity rose for the third consecutive month, and the indexes for sales/revenues and full-time employment also increased in February. Both price indicators remained ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Preliminary February Results at 99.9
Posted: February 16, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Consumer sentiment rose in early February to its second highest level since 2004 despite lower and much more volatile stock prices. Even among households in the top third of the income distribution, the Sentiment Index rose to 112.8, the highest level since the prior peak of 114.2 was repeatedly recorded in 2007, 2004, and 2000. Stock ...


U.S. Import Price Index increased 1.0% in January
Posted: February 16, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

U.S. import prices increased 1.0 percent in January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, after rising 0.2 percent in December. Higher prices for both nonfuel imports and fuel imports contributed to the January advance. Prices for U.S. exports rose 0.8 percent in January following a 0.1-percent increase the ...


January Housing Starts increased 9.7%, Permits up 7.4%
Posted: February 16, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Building Permits
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,396,000. This is 7.4 percent (±1.2 percent) above the revised December rate of 1,300,000 and is 7.4 percent (±1.9 percent) above the January 2017 rate of 1,300,000. Single-family authorizations in January were ...


Treasury International Capital Data for December 2017
Posted: February 15, 2018 at 04:00 PM (Thursday)

The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for December 2017. The sum total in December of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a monthly net TIC outflow of $119.3 billion. Of this, net foreign private outflows were $70.0 ...


Builder Confidence unchanged at 72 in February
Posted: February 15, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes remained unchanged at a healthy level of 72 in February on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). Demand conditions are positive, but supply-side construction hurdles need to be managed, as scarce labor and building material ...


Industrial Production edged down 0.1%
Capacity Utilization fell to 77.5%

Posted: February 15, 2018 at 09:15 AM (Thursday)

Industrial production edged down 0.1 percent in January following four consecutive monthly increases. Manufacturing production was unchanged in January. Mining output fell 1.0 percent, with all of its major component industries recording declines, while the index for utilities moved up 0.6 percent. At 107.2 percent of its 2012 average, ...


Producer Price Index increased 0.4% in January, ex Fd & Engy up 0.2%
Posted: February 15, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.4 percent in January, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices were unchanged in December and moved up 0.4 percent in November. On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index rose 2.7 percent for the 12 months ended ...


Philadelphia Fed Outlook Reported Activity Continues to Expand in February
Posted: February 15, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Results from the Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest that the region’s manufacturing sector continues to expand in February. The indexes for general activity, new orders, and employment were all positive this month and increased from their readings last month. Price increases for inputs were more widespread this month, according to ...


Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions expanded at a slower pace in February
Posted: February 15, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Business activity continued to expand in New York State, according to firms responding to the February 2018 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index fell five points to 13.1, suggesting a somewhat slower pace of growth than in January. The new orders index and the shipments index were little changed, ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase 7,000 to 230,000
Posted: February 15, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending February 10, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 230,000, an increase of 7,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 221,000 to 223,000. The 4-week moving average was 228,500, an increase of 3,500 from the previous week's revised average. ...


Business Inventories up 0.4% in December
Posted: February 14, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

The combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for December, adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,431.3 billion, up 0.6 percent (±0.3 percent) from November 2017 and was up 6.7 percent (±0.4 percent) from ...


Consumer Price Index 0.5% in January, Ex Fd & Engy rose 0.3%
Posted: February 14, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.5 percent in January on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 2.1 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The seasonally adjusted increase in the all items index was broad-based, with increases in the indexes for gasoline, shelter, apparel, medical care, and food all contributing. The energy index rose 3.0 percent in January, with the increase in the gasoline index more than ...


Real Average Hourly Earnings decreased 0.2% in January
Posted: February 14, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased 0.2 percent from December to January, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from a 0.3-percent increase in average hourly earnings offset by a 0.5-percent increase in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban ...


U.S. Retail Sales for January Decrease 0.3%, Ex-Auto unch%
Posted: February 14, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for January 2018, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $492.0 billion, a decrease of 0.3 percent (±0.5 percent)* from the previous month, but 3.6 percent (±0.7 percent) above January 2017. Total sales for the November ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: February 14, 2018 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 4.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 9, 2018.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 4.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 2 ...


NFIB Small Business Optimism Index jumped 2 points to 106.9 in January
Posted: February 13, 2018 at 07:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Index of Small Business Optimism gained 2.0 points in January, rising to 106.9, again one of the strongest readings in the 45-year history of the NFIB surveys. The highest reading of 108.0 was reached in July 1983 and the lowest reading of 79.7 occurred in April 1980. Six of the 10 Index components posted a gain, two declined, and two ...


Wholesale Inventories up 0.4% in December
Posted: February 9, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

December 2017 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading-day differences but not for price changes, were $500.2 billion, up 1.2 percent (±0.7 percent) from the revised November level and were up 9.1 percent (±1.1 percent) from the December 2016 level. ...


Forecasters See Stronger Output Growth and Brighter Labor Market
Posted: February 9, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

The U.S. economy looks stronger now than it did three months ago, according to 36 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The forecasters predict real GDP will grow at an annual rate of 3.0 percent this quarter and 2.9 percent next quarter. On an annual-average over annual-average basis, the forecasters predict real ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 9,000 to 221,000
Posted: February 8, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending February 3, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 221,000, a decrease of 9,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 230,000. The 4-week moving average was 224,500, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week's unrevised average of 234,500. This is the lowest level for this average since March ...


Consumer Credit Increased at an annual rate of 7.75%
Posted: February 7, 2018 at 03:00 PM (Wednesday)

Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 7-3/4 percent during the fourth quarter. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 9-3/4 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 7 percent. In December, consumer credit increased at an annual rate of ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: February 7, 2018 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 0.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 2, 2018.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 0.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 4 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 1 ...


Job Openings lower at 5.8 million in December
Posted: February 6, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The number of job openings was little changed at 5.8 million on the last business day of December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires and separations were little changed at 5.5 million and 5.2 million, respectively. Within separations, the quits rate and the layoffs and discharges rate were little changed ...


Goods and Services Deficit Increased in December 2017
Posted: February 6, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

The nation's international trade deficit in goods and services increased to $53.1 billion in December from $50.4 billion in November (revised), as imports increased more than exports. The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that the goods and services deficit was ...


Employment Trends Index Increased in January to 106.93
Posted: February 5, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) increased in January, after increasing in December. The index now stands at 106.93, up from 106.59 (a downward revision) in December. The change represents a 5.4 percent gain in the ETI compared to a year ago.

“The Employment Trends Index continues its solid path upwards and shows no sign of slowing down,” said Gad Levanon, Chief Economist, North America, at The Conference Board. “A strong US economy provides additional tailwinds to employment growth, bringing down the ...


ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increased to 59.9% in January
Posted: February 5, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in January for the 96th consecutive month, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The NMI® registered 59.9 percent, which is 3.9 percentage points higher than the seasonally adjusted December reading of 56 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a faster rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased to ...


New orders for manufactured goods increased 1.7% in December
Posted: February 2, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

New orders for manufactured goods in December, up six of the last seven months, increased $8.5 billion or 1.7 percent to $498.2 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 1.7 percent November increase. Shipments, up twelve of the last thirteen months, increased $2.9 billion or 0.6 percent to $495.4 billion. This followed a ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence dipped in January to 95.7
Posted: February 2, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Consumer sentiment has remained largely unchanged for more than a year at very favorable levels, according to the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.

The January Sentiment figure was just 0.2 Index-points below December's, and just 1.1 points below the 2017 average of 96.8—which was the highest yearly average since 2000, said U-M economist Richard Curtin, director of the surveys. ...


January Employment rose by 200,000
Unemployment Rate unchanged at 4.1%

Posted: February 2, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 200,000 in January, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in construction, food services and drinking places, health care, ...


New York Purchasing Managers Business Activity jumped to 72.5 in January
Posted: February 2, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

In January, New York City purchasing managers reported the highest current business conditions in over a decade according to the survey taken by the Institute for Supply Management-New York.

New York Metro
Current Business Conditions were at 72.5 in January, up from 56.3 in December. This marks the highest level reported since November of 2006 when current business conditions were at 77.1. In November 2006, the Six-Month Outlook was also in growth territory at ...


Construction Spending increased 0.7% in December
Posted: February 1, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Total Construction
Construction spending during December 2017 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,253.3 billion, 0.7 percent (±1.0 percent)* above the revised November estimate of $1,245.1 billion. The December figure is 2.6 percent (±1.3 percent) above the December 2016 estimate of $1,221.6 billion. The value of ...


January Manufacturing ISM expanded slower to 59.1
Posted: February 1, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in January, and the overall economy grew for the 105th consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The January PMI® registered 59.1 percent, a decrease of 0.2 percentage point from the seasonally adjusted December reading of 59.3 percent. The New Orders Index registered 65.4 percent, a decrease of 2 percentage points from the seasonally adjusted December reading of 67.4 ...


4Q2017 Productivity Growth decreased 0.1%
Posted: February 1, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity decreased 0.1 percent during the fourth quarter of 2017, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, as output increased 3.2 percent and hours worked increased 3.3 percent. (All quarterly percent changes in this release are seasonally adjusted annual rates.) From the fourth quarter of 2016 to ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 1,000 to 230,000
Posted: February 1, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending January 27, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 230,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 2,000 from 233,000 to 231,000. The 4-week moving average was 234,500, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week's revised average. ...



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Founded in 1920, the National Bureau of Economic Research is a private, nonprofit, nonpartisan research organization dedicated to promoting a greater understanding of how the economy works.

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The Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission was created to examine the causes, domestic and global, of the current financial and economic crisis in the United States.

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