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Category: Research - Topic: Economics - 201803



University of Michigan Consumer Confidence gained in March to 101.4
Posted: March 29, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

The Consumer Sentiment Index reached the highest level since 2004, and the Current Conditions Index set a new peak, dating back to the mid-1940s, according to the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.

Importantly, all of the March gain was among households with incomes in the bottom third; those in the middle third were unchanged, while the Index fell among households with incomes in the top third, said U-M economist Richard Curtin, director of the surveys. ...


Chicago Purchasing Managers Index fell 4.5 points to 57.4 in March
Posted: March 29, 2018 at 09:45 AM (Thursday)

The MNI Chicago Business Barometer fell 4.5 points to 57.4 in March, down from 61.9 in February, hitting the lowest level in exactly one year.

Firms’ operations continued to expand in March, but the pace of expansion moderated for a third straight month. Three of the five Barometer components receded on the month, with only Employment and Supplier Deliveries expanding. ...


Personal Income increased 0.4%, Spending increased 0.2%
Posted: March 29, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Personal income increased $67.3 billion (0.4 percent) in February according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $53.9 billion (0.4 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $27.7 billion ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 12,000 to 215,000
Posted: March 29, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending March 24, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 215,000, a decrease of 12,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the lowest level for initial claims since January 27, 1973 when it was 214,000. The previous week's level was revised down by 2,000 from 229,000 to 227,000. The 4-week ...


Pending Home Sales Index grew 3.1% in February
Posted: March 28, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Pending home sales snapped back in much of the country in February, but weakening affordability and not enough inventory on the market restricted overall activity compared to a year ago, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, grew 3.1 percent to 107.5 in February from a downwardly revised 104.3 in January. Even with last month’s increase in activity, the index is 4.1 percent below a year ago. ...


4Q2017 GDP final estimate increased 2.9%, 2017 GDP 2.3%
Posted: March 28, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2017, according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.2 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "second" estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.5 percent. With this third estimate for the fourth quarter, the general picture of ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: March 28, 2018 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 4.8 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 23, 2018.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 4.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 5 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 7 ...


Consumer Confidence decreased in March to 127.7
Posted: March 27, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® decreased in March, following an increase in February. The Index now stands at 127.7 (1985=100), down from 130.0 in February. The Present Situation Index decreased from 161.2 to 159.9, while the Expectations Index declined from 109.2 last month to 106.2 ...


Richmond Fed's Current Activity Index dropped from 28 to 15 in March
Posted: March 27, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Fifth District manufacturing expanded at a slower pace in March, according to the most recent survey results from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite index dropped from a particularly strong reading of 28 in February to 15 in March as each of the three components (shipments, new orders, and employment) fell. However, for each ...


S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices gained 0.05% in January
Posted: March 27, 2018 at 09:00 AM (Tuesday)

S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for January 2018 shows that home prices continued their rise across the country over the last 12 months.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 6.2% annual gain in January, down from 6.3% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 6.0%, no change from the ...


Texas Fed Manufacturing Activity Expanded Slower in March
Posted: March 26, 2018 at 10:30 AM (Monday)

Texas factory activity continued to expand in March, albeit at a markedly slower pace than last month, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, fell 15 points to 12.7, signaling a deceleration in ...


Chicago Fed National Activity Points to a Pickup in Economic Growth in February
Posted: March 26, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, moved up to +0.28 in February from +0.16 in January. Sixty-three of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in February, while 22 made negative contributions. Sixty-one indicators improved from January to February, while 23 indicators ...


New Home Sales in February at annual rate of 618,000
Posted: March 23, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

New Home Sales
Sales of new single-family houses in February 2018 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 618,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 0.6 percent (±13.3 percent)* below the revised January rate of 622,000, but is 0.5 ...


February New Orders for Durable Goods increased 3.1%, Ex-Trans up 1.2%
Posted: March 23, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in February increased $7.4 billion or 3.1 percent to $247.7 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up three of the last four months, followed a 3.5 percent January decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 1.2 percent. Excluding defense, new ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity continued solid pace in March
Posted: March 22, 2018 at 11:00 AM (Thursday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity continued at a solid pace in March, and optimism remained high for future activity. In a special question on the effect of potential steel and aluminum tariffs, most contacts indicated some impact, with varying anticipated degrees of severity. Price indexes were little changed in March after ...


U.S. Leading Economic Index increased 0.6% in February
Posted: March 22, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI)for the U.S. increased 0.6 percent in February to 108.7 (2016 = 100), following a 0.8 percent increase in January, and a 0.7 percent increase in December.

“The U.S. LEI rose again, despite a sharp downturn in stock markets and weakness in housing construction in February,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “The LEI points to robust economic growth throughout 2018. ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase 3,000 to 229,000
Posted: March 22, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending March 17, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 229,000, an increase of 3,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 226,000. The 4-week moving average was 223,750, an increase of 2,250 from the previous week's unrevised average of 221,500. Claims taking procedures in Puerto Rico and in the ...


FOMC target funds rate increased to 1.50% - 1.75%
Posted: March 21, 2018 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a moderate rate. Job gains have been strong in recent months, and the unemployment rate has stayed low. Recent data suggest that growth rates of household spending ...


Existing-Home Sales Increased 3.0% in February
Posted: March 21, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Despite consistently low inventory levels and faster price growth, existing-home sales bounced back in February after two straight months of declines, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Sizeable sales increases in the South and West offset declines in the Northeast ...


4Q2017 and 2017 Current Account Deficit Increased
Posted: March 21, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

The U.S. current-account deficit increased to $128.2 billion (preliminary) in the fourth quarter of 2017 from $101.5 billion (revised) in the third quarter, according to statistics released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The deficit was 2.6 percent of current-dollar gross domestic product (GDP) in the fourth quarter, up from 2.1 ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: March 21, 2018 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 1.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 16, 2018.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 1.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 1 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 5 ...


Philadelphia NonManufacturing Activity Suggest Continued Growth in March
Posted: March 20, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Responses to the March Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggested that business activity in the region continued to grow. The indicators for firm-level general activity and sales/revenues remained positive but fell slightly from last month’s readings, while the indicator for new orders rose to a high level. In addition, the indicator ...


Job Openings increased to 6.3 million in January
Posted: March 16, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

The number of job openings increased to 6.3 million on the last business day of January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires and separations were little changed at 5.6 million and 5.4 million, respectively. Within separations, the quits rate and the layoffs and discharges rate were little changed at ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Preliminary March Results at 102.2
Posted: March 16, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Consumer sentiment rose in early March to its highest level since 2004 due to a new all-time record favorable assessment of current economic conditions. All of the gain in the Sentiment Index was among households with incomes in the bottom third (+15.7), while the economic assessments of those with incomes in the top third posted a ...


Industrial Production rose 1.1%
Capacity Utilization climbed to 78.1%

Posted: March 16, 2018 at 09:15 AM (Friday)

Industrial production rose 1.1 percent in February following a decline of 0.3 percent in January. Manufacturing production increased 1.2 percent in February, its largest gain since October. Mining output jumped 4.3 percent, mostly reflecting strong gains in oil and gas extraction. The index for utilities fell 4.7 percent, as ...


February Housing Starts decreased 7.0%, Permits down 5.7%
Posted: March 16, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Building Permits
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,298,000. This is 5.7 percent (±0.7 percent) below the revised January rate of 1,377,000, but is 6.5 percent (±2.4 percent) above the February 2017 rate of 1,219,000. Single-family authorizations in February ...


Treasury International Capital Data for January 2018
Posted: March 15, 2018 at 04:00 PM (Thursday)

The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for January 2018. The sum total in January of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a monthly net TIC inflow of $119.7 billion. Of this, net foreign private inflows were $88.7 billion, ...


Builder Confidence edged down 1 point to 70 in March
Posted: March 15, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes edged down one point to a level of 70 in March from a downwardly revised February reading on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) but remains in ...


U.S. Import Price Index increased 0.4% in February
Posted: March 15, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

U.S. import prices increased 0.4 percent in February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, after rising 0.8 percent in January. In February, higher nonfuel prices more than offset declining prices for imported fuel. Prices for U.S. exports rose 0.2 percent in February following a 0.8-percent advance the ...


Philadelphia Fed Outlook Reported Activity Continues to Growth in March
Posted: March 15, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Results from the March Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest continued growth for the region’s manufacturing sector. Although the survey’s index for general activity moderated, the indexes for new orders and shipments improved. The survey’s future indexes, measuring expectations for the next six months, reflected ...


Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions continued to expand at a faster clip in March
Posted: March 15, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Business activity grew robustly in New York State, according to firms responding to the March 2018 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index climbed nine points to 22.5. The new orders index rose to 16.8 and the shipments index advanced to 27.0—readings that pointed to strong growth in orders and ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 4,000 to 226,000
Posted: March 15, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending March 10, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 226,000, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 1,000 from 231,000 to 230,000. The 4-week moving average was 221,500, a decrease of 750 from the previous week's revised average. The ...


Business Inventories up 0.6% in January
Posted: March 14, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

The combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for January, adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,426.0 billion, down 0.2 percent (±0.2 percent)* from December 2017, but was up 5.7 percent (±0.4 percent) from ...


Producer Price Index increased 0.2% in February, ex Fd & Engy up 0.2%
Posted: March 14, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

The Producer Price Index for final demand advanced 0.2 percent in February, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices rose 0.4 percent in January and were unchanged in December. On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index increased 2.8 percent for the 12 months ended in ...


U.S. Retail Sales for February Decrease 0.1%, Ex-Auto up 0.2%
Posted: March 14, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for February 2018, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $492.0 billion, a decrease of 0.1 percent (±0.5 percent)* from the previous month, but 4.0 percent (±0.7 percent) above February 2017. Total sales for the December ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: March 14, 2018 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 0.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 9, 2018.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 0.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 2 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 2 ...


Consumer Price Index increased 0.2% in February, Ex Fd & Engy rose 0.2%
Posted: March 13, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent in February on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.5 percent in January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 2.2 percent before ...


Real Average Hourly Earnings unch% in February
Posted: March 13, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Real average hourly earnings for all employees were unchanged from January to February, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from a 0.1-percent increase in average hourly earnings offset by a 0.2-percent increase in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban ...


NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increased 0.7 points to 107.6 in February
Posted: March 13, 2018 at 07:00 AM (Tuesday)

Small business owners are showing unprecedented confidence in the economy as the optimism index continues at record high numbers, rising to 107.6 in February, according to the NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Survey, released today. The historically high numbers include a jump in small business owners increasing capital outlays and ...


Employment Trends Index Increased in February to 107.74
Posted: March 12, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) sharply increased in February, after increasing in January. The index now stands at 107.74, up from 106.50 (a downward revision) in January. The change represents a 5.6 percent gain in the ETI compared to a year ago.

“The Employment Trends Index accelerated further in February, suggesting that strong job growth is likely to continue in the coming months,” said Gad Levanon, Chief Economist, North America, at The Conference Board. “The six-month growth rate of the index is the highest ...


Wholesale Inventories up 0.8% in January
Posted: March 9, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

January 2018 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading-day differences but not for price changes, were $492.6 billion, down 1.1 percent (±0.7 percent) from the revised December level, but were up 6.7 percent (±1.2 percent) from the January 2017 level. ...


February Employment rose by 313,000
Unemployment Rate unchanged at 4.1%

Posted: March 9, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 313,000 in February, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment rose in construction, retail trade, professional and business services, manufacturing, financial activities, ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase 21,000 to 231,000
Posted: March 8, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending March 3, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 231,000, an increase of 21,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 210,000. The 4-week moving average was 222,500, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week's unrevised average of 220,500. Claims taking procedures in Puerto Rico and in the ...


Challenger Layoffs Decreased to 35,369 in February
Posted: March 8, 2018 at 07:30 AM (Thursday)

The nation’s employers announced plans to cut 35,369 jobs in February, down 20 percent from the 44,653 cuts announced in January, according to a report released Thursday by global outplacement and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.

Last month’s total is 4.3 percent lower than the 36,957 announced job cuts in February 2017. So far this year, employers have announced 80,022 cuts, 3.5 percent lower than through February last year. This is the lowest number of announced job cuts between January and ...


Consumer Credit Increased at an annual rate of 4.25%
Posted: March 7, 2018 at 03:00 PM (Wednesday)

In January, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4-1/4 percent. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 3/4 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 5-1/2 percent.

...


Beige Book: Economic Activity expand at a modest to moderate pace
Posted: March 7, 2018 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

Economic activity expanded at a modest to moderate pace across the 12 Federal Reserve Districts in January and February. Consumer spending was mixed, as non-auto retail sales increased in just over half of the Districts while auto sales declined or were flat in every District. Tourism activity was broadly solid, with Atlanta and Richmond ...


Help Wanted OnLine Labor Demand decreased 185,700 to 4,717,600 in February
Posted: March 7, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Online advertised vacancies decreased 185,700 to 4,717,600 in February, according to The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Data Series,released today. The January Supply/Demand rate stands at 1.36 unemployed for each advertised vacancy, with a total of 1.8 million more unemployed workers than the number of advertised vacancies. ...


4Q2017 Productivity Growth revised to 0.0%
Posted: March 7, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity growth was revised to 0.0 percent in the fourth quarter of 2017, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, as output increased 3.2 percent and hours worked increased 3.3 percent. (All quarterly percent changes in this release are seasonally adjusted annual rates.) From the fourth quarter of ...


Goods and Services Deficit Increased in January 2018
Posted: March 7, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

The nation's international trade deficit in goods and services increased to $56.6 billion in January from $53.9 billion in December (revised), as exports decreased more than imports. The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $56.6 billion in January, up $2.7 billion ...


ADP National Employment Report increased by 235,000 jobs in February
Posted: March 7, 2018 at 08:15 AM (Wednesday)

Private sector employment increased by 235,000 jobs from January to February according to the February ADP National Employment Report®.

“The labor market continues to experience uninterrupted growth,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “We see persistent gains across most industries with leisure and hospitality and retail leading the way as consumer spending kicked ...



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